Not clear yet but horrible, from AFR: At least 73 people were killed and many more injured after truck was driven at high speed into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day in the southern French coastal resort of Nice, French media has reported. A gunman reportedly got out of the lorry and fired into the crowd on the
From Citi: Like most boys, my three-year old loves see-saws. From his perspective, it has two steady states. ‘Down’ when he sits on it – and ‘Up’ when daddy sits at the other end. The transition between the two states is all too swift. And unfortunately, every time we end up in an equilibrium, it’s
Summarised by the FT: Theresa May has entered Downing Street with a promise to address the country’s deep divisions, ruling not “for the privileged few” but for people who felt they were losing control of their lives. Within hours of becoming the UK’s second female prime minister, Mrs May made her first cabinet appointments by
From Morgan Stanley: Italian policymakers are facing a dilemma between the need to reinforce the capital of the banking system, and the need to protect retail savers. We review the options, but argue any government money involvement could put its support at risk in the upcoming referendum in October. Pressure is building to restore confidence
From Citi: The sudden withdrawal Monday of Andrea Leadsom for the Conservative party leadership leaves Home Secretary Theresa May as the sole candidate. David Cameron has announced that there will be a new PM by Wednesday night; we expect May to take over as PM shortly. Given May’s imminent appointment, discussions about the
Here is the real problem for Brexit, from Goldman: Following the Brexit surprise, we revised our Sterling forecasts weaker, but – amid lots of doomsday scenarios for the Pound – resisted the temptation to forecast a free-fall. Now that markets have settled somewhat,we are switching to forecast a second leg of weakness for the Pound,
The Brexit panic is over almost before it began. The US dollar eased: Yen did too, zombieuro firmed: Commodity currencies mostly rose though not Aussie: Gold gave some back: Oil firmed: Base metals are lovin’ it: Big miners too: And EM/US high yield also rebounded: So, the panic is over. Why? Because it’s just more
From the Daily Mail: Germany’s foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault today presented a proposal for closer EU integration based on three key areas – internal and external security, the migrant crisis, and economic cooperation. But the plans have been described as an ‘ultimatum’ in Poland, with claims it would mean
I’m a celebrity!
From George Soros at Project Syndicate: Britain, I believe, had the best of all possible deals with the European Union, being a member of the common market without belonging to the euro and having secured a number of other opt-outs from EU rules. And yet that was not enough to stop the United Kingdom’s electorate
Updated 1.50pm – 1 million votes in front for Leave New, Brexit on track: Markets charging the USD and all red: Old, landslide building: Old: Old: Old: Old: East Anglia University model gives Bremain zero probability: 03:00 Fifth forecast update My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets,
From the Tele: BBC: A few brave analysts calling a marginal BREXIT victory.
From What UK thinks come a one point swing to remain on the final day: As expected, from Deutsche: From a highly dubious sample size of two, we can conclude that there is usually a late swing towards the status quo, which makes sense given the burden of proof is really on the “yes” camp so
The US dollar firmed up over the weekend as Brexit fears took center stage: The yen rally has broken out on save haven flows but euro is weak: Commodity currencies were all over the place: Gold was strong: Oil is weak: Base metals do not know what they are: Nor miners: But US and EM
From Westpac’s Elliot Clarke: As the ECB has increasingly turned to alternative measures, we have outlined how confidence amongst borrowers and lenders and credit activity have responded. The key takeout has been that, while confidence amongst households has improved materially leading to stronger consumer spending, the impact on non-financial corporates had been much more modest,
Sydney Heads, 1865, Eugene von Guérard, Art Gallery of NSW …more to come… China Chinese premier vows to stabilise the property market – SCMP ‘Skyrocketing’ debt at state firms among biggest challenges facing China’s economy – SCMP Shanghai Said to Be Nearing Purchase Curbs for Warming Property Market – Caixin China’s rust-belt city Shenyang may
From Goldman: On perhaps the most important metric – inflation – we are almost back to where we started, with core near last year’s low of 0.6 percent. Looking through the lens of the inflation mandate, sequential (month-over-month) inflation needs to triple from its pace over the past year for the ECB to meet its
Strong words from probably the greatest trader of the 20th century as the “aylites” gather in Davos and make soothing noises, George Soros calls it like he sees it. From an interview at the NY Review: Gregor Peter Schmitz: Merkel used to be very cautious and deliberate. People could trust her. But in the migration
From the FT, a decent backgrounder on France’s surging National Front: The stronger this party gets the weaker the euro and stronger the US dollar. It’s another factor to exacerbate the mining GFC.
From the BBC: France’s far-right National Front (FN) appears to have made big gains in the first round of regional elections, estimates show. They put the FN ahead in at least six of 13 regions in mainland France. The elections are the first electoral test since last month’s Paris attacks, in which 130 people were
Via UBS: Quantifying the amount of QE/QE2 that is currently priced into the market is clearly a subjective exercise. Nevertheless we have given it our best shot. Overall, we believe that the market is currently pricing in a €8.5bn increase in monthly sovereign purchases and an extension of QE by 3-6months. Media surveys of market
A new risk for 2016/17 is rising. No, it’s not terrorism but it is its abominable offspring, from The Independent: Meet “le Front National”. They call their leader “our Joan of Arc”, the saintly heroine who has come to lance the Muslim peril and slay the Brussels hydra. And to her supporters, Marine Le Pen,
by Chris Becker Change is no change in Greece, with the return to power of Syriza, still led by Alexis Tsipras over the weekend in a snap general election. From Bloomberg: The former prime minister’s Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, received 35.5 percent of the vote, according to an official projection by the
by Chris Becker Last night the ECB had its monthly interest rate meeting and kept rates at historic lows, as expected. Further to that, ECB President Mario “whatever it takes” Draghi stated the bank was ready to “revamp” its QE program including an expansion of the stimulus as economic growth and inflation forecasts continued to
From Bloomberg: A group of Greek lawmakers opposed to the country’s bailout program abandoned the governing party, Syriza, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras moved to force an early election to shore up his position. The lawmakers, whose names were read out on Friday by a deputy parliament speaker on television from Athens, will be called
From the FT: Greece is to hold a snap general election after prime minister Alexis Tsipras resigned and asked the Greek people to pass judgment on the latest bailout deal. In a televised addressed, the leader of the leftwing Syriza party said he would tender his coalition government’s resignation to Greece’s president, triggering the sixth
From The Monthly in a sccop: Let me just describe the moment after the announcement of the result. I made a statement in the Ministry of Finance and then I proceeded to the prime minister’s offices, the Maximos [also the official residency of the Greek prime minister], to meet with Aleksis Tsipras and the rest of
From France24: The International Monetary Fund said Thursday it would not join a new bailout program for Greece until conditions for debt sustainability, including debt relief and economic reforms, are clearly assured. “In order to ensure medium-term sustainability, there is a need for difficult decisions on both sides … difficult decisions in Greece regarding reforms,
Yanis Varafoukis is not finished it seems, from ekathimerini: Former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has claimed that he was authorized by Alexis Tsipras last December to look into a parallel payment system that would operate using wiretapped tax registration numbers (AFMs) and could eventually work as a parallel banking system, Kathimerini has learned. In a
Good video wrap here from Bloomberg on the increasing instability in Greek politics.
