The Italian referendum is all but lost, from the Express: ITALY looks likely to be the next fed up European Union (EU) nation to deliver an angry message to Brussels as the last poll before its referendum predicts the populist vote will win. Anti-establishment votes are ahead by five points in the final public opinion
From the FT: The late Thomas Bernhard, a mordant Austrian author, once likened the mentality of his compatriots to punch cake, a rum-soaked national dessert. On the outside it is red, like the left; inside it is brown, like Nazism; and it is always a bit drunk. Austria’s December 4 presidential election re-run pits Alexander
Not much news overnight around the Italian referendum but the de-globalisation revolution is running red hot in France. French bond spreads to Germany have not moved as much as Italian but they are widening: From Gideon Rachman at the FT: Following this weekend’s centre-right primary, it seems likely that Ms Le Pen will face a
The Italexit shock looms, via Reuters (chart from Bloomie): Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s hopes of winning his referendum on constitutional reform are dwindling fast as previously undecided voters are choosing to oppose his plan, according to pollsters. Renzi has promised to resign if he loses the Dec. 4 ballot over his proposal to reduce the
Matteo Renzi is having none of it, from The Guardian: The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has doubled down on a promise to resign if he loses an upcoming referendum, saying the “decrepit system” that would be left in the wake of his defeat would have to be taken care of by someone else. The
The de-globalisation revolution intensifies today as Italian PM Matteo Renzi confirms he may resign if he loses his referendum, via Reuters: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi suggested on Monday that he may not stay on if a referendum on constitutional reform that he is championing fails. Asked in a radio interview what he would do
For anyone with a sense of history, the de-globalisation revolution is moving at astonishing speed. The next global wanker rejection is scheduled for December 4 in Italy and Austria, from the Express: THE EU’s days might be numbered with Italy about to vote on a referendum which could send shockwaves across the continent.Analysts believe the
From Westpac’s Elliot Clarke A key purpose behind the ECB’s alternative easing programs has been to materially improve credit provision and conditions in the Euro Area economy. Exhibiting a lagged relationship with the business cycle and further hampered by the health of European banks, success on this front has been slow and limited. As referenced
From Hugh Hendry via Valuewalk: We believe we are approaching a dramatic fulcrum point in public opinion in Europe which could deliver another bout of outsized positive returns from a unique Eclectica trade. Since the Brexit referendum we have been developing our thoughts about what the Leave vote might mean, not just for the UK,
Ah, yes, to be too big to fail. Late breaking from Reuters: The German government is pursuing discreet talks with U.S. authorities to help Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) secure a swift settlement over the sale of toxic mortgage bonds, according to sources in Berlin. Until now, German officials have played down their role in the standoff,
It’s a post-truth world as the US dollar was stable: Other majors likewise: Commodity currencies largely firmer: Gold weaker: Oil stronger: Base metals too: Big miners largely weak: US and ME high yield broke out with oil: US bonds were dumped: But German are very near record highs: And stocks tacked on a half percent:
by Chris Becker The public image of the European experiment is that it has been setup to bring Europe closer together financially, culturally and strategically, a melting pot of medium-sized States so that one big entity cannot shape or rule the continent’s future. The reality is Germany rules Europe for Germany. The financial gains for
by Chris Becker Last night, the Bank of England held its monthly meeting and made no surprises with the first rate cut – down 0.25% to 0.25% even – as part of a post Brexit referendum easing program. They also announced an expansion in their bond buying program (70 billion pounds) and in news that
European bank stress tests have been greeted with an avalanche of cynicism, from Bloomie: The problem is that the tests, in effect, continue to turn a blind eye. They have to: There’s no clear way to remedy any big shortfalls they might find. Europe’s banking rules — thanks in large part to Germany’s reluctance to
George Soros via Foreign Policy: The refugee crisis was already leading to the slow disintegration of the European Union. Then, on June 23, it contributed to an even greater calamity — Brexit. Both of these crises have reinforced xenophobic, nationalist movements across the continent. They will try to win a series of key votes in
From the AFR: Platinum, the Sydney-based global value investor, is defying the bearish mood and buying more European bank stocks after its positions in banks accounted for almost half of the fund manager’s losses so far this year. The Platinum Unhedged Fund’s latest report shows that its value fell 10 per cent in 2015-16 compared with
From the BBC: A lorry has struck a crowd after Bastille Day celebrations in the southern French city of Nice, killing at least 80 people and injuring dozens, officials say. It happened on the famous Promenade des Anglais after a firework display. The driver was shot dead and guns and grenades were found inside the
Not clear yet but horrible, from AFR: At least 73 people were killed and many more injured after truck was driven at high speed into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day in the southern French coastal resort of Nice, French media has reported. A gunman reportedly got out of the lorry and fired into the crowd on the
From Citi: Like most boys, my three-year old loves see-saws. From his perspective, it has two steady states. ‘Down’ when he sits on it – and ‘Up’ when daddy sits at the other end. The transition between the two states is all too swift. And unfortunately, every time we end up in an equilibrium, it’s
Summarised by the FT: Theresa May has entered Downing Street with a promise to address the country’s deep divisions, ruling not “for the privileged few” but for people who felt they were losing control of their lives. Within hours of becoming the UK’s second female prime minister, Mrs May made her first cabinet appointments by
From Morgan Stanley: Italian policymakers are facing a dilemma between the need to reinforce the capital of the banking system, and the need to protect retail savers. We review the options, but argue any government money involvement could put its support at risk in the upcoming referendum in October. Pressure is building to restore confidence
From Citi: The sudden withdrawal Monday of Andrea Leadsom for the Conservative party leadership leaves Home Secretary Theresa May as the sole candidate. David Cameron has announced that there will be a new PM by Wednesday night; we expect May to take over as PM shortly. Given May’s imminent appointment, discussions about the
Here is the real problem for Brexit, from Goldman: Following the Brexit surprise, we revised our Sterling forecasts weaker, but – amid lots of doomsday scenarios for the Pound – resisted the temptation to forecast a free-fall. Now that markets have settled somewhat,we are switching to forecast a second leg of weakness for the Pound,
The Brexit panic is over almost before it began. The US dollar eased: Yen did too, zombieuro firmed: Commodity currencies mostly rose though not Aussie: Gold gave some back: Oil firmed: Base metals are lovin’ it: Big miners too: And EM/US high yield also rebounded: So, the panic is over. Why? Because it’s just more
From the Daily Mail: Germany’s foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault today presented a proposal for closer EU integration based on three key areas – internal and external security, the migrant crisis, and economic cooperation. But the plans have been described as an ‘ultimatum’ in Poland, with claims it would mean
I’m a celebrity!
From George Soros at Project Syndicate: Britain, I believe, had the best of all possible deals with the European Union, being a member of the common market without belonging to the euro and having secured a number of other opt-outs from EU rules. And yet that was not enough to stop the United Kingdom’s electorate
Updated 1.50pm – 1 million votes in front for Leave New, Brexit on track: Markets charging the USD and all red: Old, landslide building: Old: Old: Old: Old: East Anglia University model gives Bremain zero probability: 03:00 Fifth forecast update My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets,
From the Tele: BBC: A few brave analysts calling a marginal BREXIT victory.
From What UK thinks come a one point swing to remain on the final day: As expected, from Deutsche: From a highly dubious sample size of two, we can conclude that there is usually a late swing towards the status quo, which makes sense given the burden of proof is really on the “yes” camp so
