MacroBusiness covers Australian banks from the perspective of their macro-economic role, as political economy actors, as investment propositions and in terms of financial stability and capital adequacy. Australian banks have played a crucial role in inflating the Australian property bubble, exist within an utterly privileged position as “too big to fail” institutions and operate within a deeply distorted financial architecture that has Australian tax payers well and truly on the hook in the event of trouble. MacroBusiness seeks to define this role for investors as well as change it in the name of the Australian national interest.
Kevin Davis, Emeritus Professor of Finance at the University of Melbourne, has slammed the Morrison Government’s planned scrapping of responsible lending laws, which he argues is “particularly egregious” and a “triumph of ideology and vested interests over logic and evidence”: The axing of responsible lending obligations (RLOs) under the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009
Consumer groups have hardened in their opposition to the Morrison Government’s plans to abolish responsible lending laws, which were introduced in 2009. The Financial Rights Legal Centre has urged Senate crossbenchers to vote against any such move, while Financial Counselling Australia and CHOICE warn that scrapping the responsible lending regime would make it easier for
The Morrison Government is under scrutiny over its lack of action in implementing the recommendations of the Hayne banking royal commission. Analysis shows that 27 of the inquiry’s recommendations have been fully implemented to date; another 44 are yet to be implemented, while the government has formally abandoned five of them. The government had committed
Freedom of Information (FOI) documents released on Friday by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reveals that it saw risks in its decision to cut the cash rate to 0.10%, alongside introducing the Term Funding Facility (TFF) for banks and buying government bonds. In particular, the RBA noted that “a permanent (temporary) 100 basis point
In September MB was left flabbergasted when Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, out of nowhere, announced the government would abolish responsible lending rules. This was a watershed moment in Australia’s transformation into the property equivalent of a narco state given this decision to abolish responsible lending laws directly contravened the very first recommendation from the Hayne Banking
We had previously operated under the wrong assumption that the 30-year decline in mortgage rates had run its course given the RBA official cash rate (OCR) had little further room to fall: That is, with the OCR hitting its lower bound, we wrongly believed that banks would have minimal ability to cut deposit and wholesale
The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) has released data on loan deferrals to November 2020, which reveals that the number and value of deferred mortgages has plunged. The number of mortgage deferrals had shrunk by around three quarters, from a peak of 488,249 mortgages in May to 118,919 mortgages in November. In a similar vein,
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released its global household debt statistics for the June quarter, which reveals that Australian households remain the second most indebted in the world and easily the most indebted among English-speaking nations: Australia also has the third highest debt repayment burden out of sampled nations and by far the
Via Domain: The prudential regulator is investigating online publication The New Daily‘s commercial relationships with superannuation funds as part of a review of how members’ money is being spent by the industry. Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg has been a vocal critic of industry super and last week passed a Senate motion to demand the ABC provide more
Via the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS: Australian economic recovery keeps surprising Over the last month a raft of economic data has surprised on the upside. Home lending; building approvals; retail sales; car sales; trade data and GDP all exceeded expectations. Additionally, new COVID-19 cases across Australia have approached zero (outside hotel quarantine) allowing many
Via Banking Day: We are all one step closer to an elegant takeover by the Kiwis of Australian financial regulation. To simplify capital calculations for banks, and in turn, capital floor calculations, APRA is proposing that risk-weighted assets of the New Zealand banking subsidiaries of banks be calculated under Reserve Bank of New Zealand rules
The ACCC has released its Home loan price inquiry report, which reports that many Australians are needlessly paying far more than they need to on their mortgages and recommends they switch lenders to obtain a lower rate: The final report of the ACCC’s Home loan price inquiry highlights that many borrowers could save money by seeking a
Thursday’s Lending Indicators data for October from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that Australian households continue to shun consumer borrowings, with personal finance commitments collapsing to another record low: As shown above, annual new personal finance commitments fell by 15.3% year-on-year and were 42% below the long-term average. This followed last week’s private
Via Martin North: This was not meant to happen – after all the official story is we are in recovery mode – yet the latest results from our rolling household surveys tells another story as unemployment and underemployment rise further, even as Government financial support is tapered down. As a result mortgage stress – those
From Martin North: Full explanation at 23 minutes:
Furious saving. Via the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS: Housing lending boom not yet flowing through to housing credit growth Interest rate cuts, policy support, loosening lending standards and increased consumer confidence have led to a 38% bounce in new housing lending (flow) since May. However, this growth does not appear to be flowing
No sign of any bounce in specufestor mortgages in October APRA data. Year on year is still down marginally for the big eight: Month on month was slightly positive but the trend is sideways. ANZ is making up for lost time. Others are becalmed. NAB is crunched: Mad Macquarie remains…mad: There is no rebound at
Via RBA credit aggregates: The table below presents a summary of the latest financial aggregates statistics. Financial Aggregates Percentage change Monthly Year-ended September 2020 October 2020 October 2019 October 2020 Total credit 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.8 – Housing 0.4 0.3 2.9 3.3 – Personal −1.0 −0.7 −4.7 −12.7 – Business −0.4 −0.3 2.7 1.4 Broad
Via Banking Day: The thin credentials of the Australian finance industry’s most senior people – bank boards included – stand exposed after a landmark (and devastating) speech yesterday by APRA member Geoff Summerhayes. Summerhayes used the speech to unveil APRA’s new Cyber Security Strategy, but it’s what the industry has been doing (or, mainly, not
Don’t say we didn’t warn you. If you design stimulus measures around business investment incentives amid huge oversupply then what you get is a big, fat donut. Via ABS capex expectations today: Estimate 4 for 2020-21 is $104,984m in total. This is 6.3% higher than Estimate 3 for 2020-21. Estimate 4 for 2020-21 is $36,027m
Data from RateCity shows that banks have slashed deposit rates since the RBA’s latest interest rate cut, with the average ongoing savings rate across the banking system now just 0.46%: According to RateCity, 30 banks have taken a knife to interest rates since the RBA cut, with the average ongoing savings rate across the banking
Unsurprisingly, the Australian Banking Association (ABA) supports changes to responsible lending laws in its submission to an inquiry into the federal government’s proposed reforms. The ABA claims the reforms “strike the right balance” between protecting consumers and ensuring that credit is available: A submission by the industry’s peak lobby group, the Australian Banking Association, says
Via BofA: Fiscal cliff economics • Many pandemic-aid programs in the CARES Act are set to expire at the end of the year without action from Congress. • The expiration of federal UI programs—PUA and PEUC—alone could be a drag of 1.5pp in 1Q. Cutoff of other provisions will be additional headwinds. • We expect
At the AFR: A submission to the government’s inquiry into the planned law changes from a range of groups, seen by The Australian Financial Review, says it is impossible to provide constructive feedback to proposals for change that are “fundamentally defective”. Organisations behind the submission include the Consumer Action Law Centre, Choice, Financial Counselling Australia,
21 months is a long time in Australian politics. In February 2019, the Kenneth Hayne released his final report from the banking royal commission which, as its first recommendation, directed the government to keep responsible lending rules: This recommendation came after the Hayne royal commission documented extensive cases of criminal lending and behaviour, leaving Australia’s
The Australian Bankers Association (ABA) has provided an update on its members deferred loans, which shows that the mortgage cliff that was towering over Australia’s property market has shrunk by two-thirds from its peak in June: According to the latest data up to November 4, home loan deferrals by the seven largest banks are down
CBA has released its internal mortgage data for October, which shows that mortgage lending consolidated in October, whereas lending for renovations rocketed. Consumer and business lending also remained weak. Key Points: There was a consolidation in lending for housing in October after several months of very strong growth. But lending for renovations continued to rocket
Via banking plaything Wayne Byers of APRA: “We have deliberately never put in place [dividend] guidance for a long period of time because we want to stay agile, we want to stay flexible, we want to be able to be conscious of the environment that’s evolving.” “Our first set of of guidance only lasted for
Eighteen months is a very short time in Australian politics. In February 2019 we were all agog at the criminal lending and behaviour unmasked by the Hayne Royal Commission. The Government was humiliated. Regulators humbled. Victims vindicated. Yet, here we are today, at the AFR: At a speech on Wednesday morning to a special, virtual
Via Banking Day: A leading non-bank mortgage lender has warned that non-banks originating prime mortgages face tough market conditions, largely as a result of the pricing impact of the Reserve Bank’s term funding facility. Firstmac chief financial officer James Austin said non-banks have had the benefit of the Australian Office of Financial Management’s Structured Finance
