US Economy


Virus kills Trump’s chances

More bad news for El Trumpo overnight with The Economist endorsing Joe Biden: Our cover this week  sets out why, if we had a vote, it would go to Joe Biden. The country that elected Donald Trump in 2016 was unhappy and divided. The country he is asking to re-elect him is more unhappy and


How will Trump launch his coup?

Ther latest poll averages have Biden still cruising to a win at the headline level: And battleground states: Plus betting markets: The Economist has also declared its polling for a Democratic senate: We’re all jaded about polls. Watch the below video from FiveThirtyEight. It captures what happened to 2016 polls and how they’ve reformed their


El Trumpo builds polling momentum

The latest polling averages are better El Trumpo: Battleground states have closed the gap a little: Betting is unimpressed: 538 sees an even larger landslide: Probably rightly. There is always a late swing to the incumbent but the gap remains to large and the virus resurgence cannot help El Trumpo: He only has until next


El Trumpo readies election sabotage

This is not and will not cheer markets. Obviously, El Trumpo’s internal polling is saying the same thing as everybody else’s. Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020 As I noted yesterday, El Trumpo is


Borat stings Guliani

I know it’s PR but…well…it’s Borat: The news is appropriate enough: [Rudi] Giuliani went to the hotel room thinking he was being interviewed about the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response. The young woman is flirtatious with him and invites him to the bedroom, which is rigged with hidden cameras. Giuliani then asks for her phone number


Trump closes the gap!

Via RealClear some movement to the incumbent at the headline: Battlegrounds not so much: Betting still all over the joint:   No gap closure at FiveThirtyEight: An embarrassingly Trump worshipping Zero Hedge makes a big deal of registrations: Last week, we published an article detailing a warning from JPMorgan’s top quant Marko Kolanvoci to all those expecting


“Immune” Trump dies of political COVID

What a complete moron…. — Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) October 13, 2020 He may claim to be physically immune but he’s died of political COVID. Headline polls are cooked: Battleground states are cooked: He’s holding on in Texas: But all bets are off: Biden is far ahead of Hilary at the comparable time. Barring


You’re fired! Loser Trump polls sink

The thing about being a “strongman” populist winner is that you need always to be one. If you start to look vulnerable, like a loser on The Apprentice, then the gloss quickly turns to rust as what was formerly teflon-coated rhetoric feels more like secondhand car salesmanship.  That is where El Trumpo is today, via


US raises salary threshold for skilled visas

Earlier this year, the Economic Policy Institute released research showing that the United States’ temporary skilled visa scheme (H1B) has been used by employers to undercut local workers’ wages. The analysis is based upon the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, which constructs a distribution of wages for each occupation in a specific geographic


Donald Trump is going to lose in a landslide

It’s going to be fun watching the anti-American brigade storm back in its support of the US of A as Donald Trump departs.  That exit is now about as guaranteed as anything ever was in politics. First, let’s consult the polls which are winding hard against him. The 538 poll average swung to Biden post-debate:


White or orange, gasping Trump goes home

He didn’t look great yesterday but he’s going home regardless: Looks like he may have brushed on some extra orange foundation before leaving (missed a bit around the edges): And can he breath? Trump looks like he is gasping for air — Brennan Murphy (@brenonade) October 5, 2020 Not a hoax. Who released this


What happens to the Australian dollar if Trump dies?

DXY was stable Friday night: The Australian dollar was weak: Gold eased: Oil crashed: Base metals were mixed: Miners did OK: EMs fell: Junk did OK: The yield curve steepened as the “blue wave” becomes a reality: Stocks fell sharply, especially growth: In news, US jobs were pretty weak relative to expectations. The bigger news was,


Donald Trump tests positive for COVID-19

US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania have both tested positive for COVID-19 and have been isolated in quarantine: Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020 This came after the


Presidential debate fact checked

Via the BBC: Trump: “We built the greatest economy in history” Verdict: That’s not right – there have been times in US history when the economy was stronger. Before the coronavirus outbreak, President Trump claimed to have generated historic economic growth. It’s true the economy was doing well before the pandemic – continuing a trend


US headed into virus third wave

This is the rolling agony that Psycho Creighton and the IPA would inflict upon us if they could. Rolling waves of virus and death: As the economy opens then shuts then opens then shuts: It looks very much like the US is headed into its third wave as winter approaches. Expect another economic downdraft to


Biden wins presidential debate

I didn’t think that there was any clear winner in the debate. But that is a win for Joe Biden given he is comfortably ahead in the polls: As well, Trump’s childish antics were energetic but not rational. With 200k dead Americans owing to virus mismanagement, it is my view that the polity will be


US wealthy focussed on “cash conservation”

Via Citi: Citi Private Bank today released results from a survey led by the Private Capital Group, providing a rare insight into the thinking of some of the world’s sophisticated family offices and investors during an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In one of the private banking industry’s most comprehensive polls* of investor sentiment since the onset


The Economist predicts Biden landslide

Via Crikey: It takes a brave publication these days to claim an authoritative prediction for November’s US election. The Economist has combined polling and demographic and economic data into a model developed with Columbia University political scientists Andrew Gelman and Merlin Hedemann. And it’s currently predicting a landslide victory for Joe Biden. The model is currently predicting 333 electoral


Biden still comfortably leads Trump

Via News: A data scientist who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 says the US President is currently on track to win again. Professor Bela Stantic is the founder and director of Griffith University’s Big Data and Smart Analytics Lab, where he analyses social media data and sentiment to predict


Dalio drops dollar drivel

Ray Dalio at Bloomie: Meh. There’s a difference between cyclical deflation of a currency and structural. Dalio is about two hundred years too early by confusing the first and second. Perhaps because he is so biased towards China. Recall this hogwash: To refresh your memory, the chart below shows the relative powers of the leading


Trump boat parade sinks

Via FTAlphaville: Alphaville does not have an opinion on the political effectiveness of boat parades. Putting a Trump flag in a rod holder and motoring around on the weekend isn’t any sillier than putting a sticker on a car bumper and driving to work during the week. And the Trump flags are, legally, bumper stickers.


Trump betting odds plunge

It’s looking more like US presidential betting markets are today tied up with stock market liquidity: As said last week, I wonder if there is some relationship between stock market gains and those plumping for Trump, beyond simple sentiment. The polls are still strongly blue:   Though Trump has gained in swing states: I still


Betting odds surge to Trump

A bit silly in my book: Polling has lifted a bit: I wonder if the betting markets aren’t a little swayed by the broader stock market bubble in their own case of reverse Trump derangement syndrome. There’ll be some significant crossover in the punters. The virus is helping so there’s some support for the betting