US Economy

So far as I can tell, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the greatest thing going for the Trump administration by far.

President Trump’s 10% tariff on Australia never made sense. Australia has historically had a gaping trade deficit with the United States. As illustrated in the table below from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the United States exported (A$88.2b) more than double what it imported (A$37.5b) from Australia in 2023-24.

In the report below, Luke Yeaman, Chief Economist at CBA, examines whether the era of globalisation over. Trump, Tariffs and Trade: A Different Kind of Wall The era of trade liberalisation, free market reforms, deregulation and fiscal discipline (the Washington Consensus) is officially dead and buried.

The Market Ear on the extreme bear. Equities S&P 500 decline has been more severe than the median bear market at this point in a sell-off. Source: Morgan Stanley 9th worst Weekly performance for the S&P 500 since WWII – last week’s decline (-9.1%) was the 9th worst.

Australia has traditionally had a gaping trade deficit with the United States. The following table from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) shows that the United States exported (A$88.2b) more than double what it imported (A$37.5b) from Australia in 2023-24.

Terrific video here on how Trump’s tariffs are aimed at working while the fallout is in the implementation.

Let us begin with AEP in full flight.

BofA is pretty good at US inflation and January does tend towards stronger numbers. Core inflation should pick up in January We forecast core CPI inflation of 0.3% m/m (0.33% ungrounded) for January.

It’s a very big debate for asset allocators by very big people that I respect on both sides.

I never bet on employment reports.

Goldman with the note.

Goldman with the note.

Here it is.

Always sobering and usually right…eventually.

Goldman with the note.

Goldman with the note.

Deutsche with an excellent wrap. 1. Free trade agreements (FTAs) are not safe.

Steven Blitz at TSLombard is excellent at times.

A great piece from Domain today.

Markets are breaking for Trump with AUD and bonds down hard.

Greg Sheridan says Trump: A Donald Trump presidency would probably be better for Australia than a Kamala Harris presidency.

The aggregated polls have been swinging: The swing states are a dead heat: I am concerned that these polls cannot be trusted.