More bad news for El Trumpo overnight with The Economist endorsing Joe Biden: Our cover this week sets out why, if we had a vote, it would go to Joe Biden. The country that elected Donald Trump in 2016 was unhappy and divided. The country he is asking to re-elect him is more unhappy and
Ther latest poll averages have Biden still cruising to a win at the headline level: And battleground states: Plus betting markets: The Economist has also declared its polling for a Democratic senate: We’re all jaded about polls. Watch the below video from FiveThirtyEight. It captures what happened to 2016 polls and how they’ve reformed their
The latest polling averages are better El Trumpo: Battleground states have closed the gap a little: Betting is unimpressed: 538 sees an even larger landslide: Probably rightly. There is always a late swing to the incumbent but the gap remains to large and the virus resurgence cannot help El Trumpo: He only has until next
This is not and will not cheer markets. Obviously, El Trumpo’s internal polling is saying the same thing as everybody else’s. Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020 As I noted yesterday, El Trumpo is
As El Trumpo heads for the scrapheap of history, we have all been waiting for him to throw his final tantrum. Some last Hail Mary attempt to wrest the election from the virus that has killed his presidency. We were right to expect so, the toxic narcissist will always exact his revenge if publically humiliated.
Via The Economist: By the time covid-19 took off in America, the presidential primaries were already wrapping up. However, some later-voting states creaked under a historic load of postal ballots. In primary elections in June, 21% of absentee ballots in New York City were rejected, mainly for hiccups like missing signatures. Such a rate in the
I know it’s PR but…well…it’s Borat: The news is appropriate enough: [Rudi] Giuliani went to the hotel room thinking he was being interviewed about the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response. The young woman is flirtatious with him and invites him to the bedroom, which is rigged with hidden cameras. Giuliani then asks for her phone number
Via RealClear some movement to the incumbent at the headline: Battlegrounds not so much: Betting still all over the joint: No gap closure at FiveThirtyEight: An embarrassingly Trump worshipping Zero Hedge makes a big deal of registrations: Last week, we published an article detailing a warning from JPMorgan’s top quant Marko Kolanvoci to all those expecting
The latest polls do not offer much comfort to El Trumpo. Headline: Battleground states: Betting odds are volatile again: There usually a late swing back to the incumbent in every election. Nate Silver now sees a landslide: Indeed, the polls will need to be historically wrong for Trump to be re-elected: The senate remains tight:
Via Credit Suisse comes some proof that the recent rally in risk has had nothing whatsoever to do with the scuttlebutt around US stimulus and everything to do with the collapse of Trump’s electoral prospects: IMPLIED VOLS declined across asset classes last week with the notable exception of rates. US rate vol (CIRVE Index) saw
What a complete moron…. https://t.co/Ptlo6zxIV7 — Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) October 13, 2020 He may claim to be physically immune but he’s died of political COVID. Headline polls are cooked: Battleground states are cooked: He’s holding on in Texas: But all bets are off: Biden is far ahead of Hilary at the comparable time. Barring
The thing about being a “strongman” populist winner is that you need always to be one. If you start to look vulnerable, like a loser on The Apprentice, then the gloss quickly turns to rust as what was formerly teflon-coated rhetoric feels more like secondhand car salesmanship. That is where El Trumpo is today, via
Earlier this year, the Economic Policy Institute released research showing that the United States’ temporary skilled visa scheme (H1B) has been used by employers to undercut local workers’ wages. The analysis is based upon the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, which constructs a distribution of wages for each occupation in a specific geographic
It’s going to be fun watching the anti-American brigade storm back in its support of the US of A as Donald Trump departs. That exit is now about as guaranteed as anything ever was in politics. First, let’s consult the polls which are winding hard against him. The 538 poll average swung to Biden post-debate:
He didn’t look great yesterday but he’s going home regardless: Looks like he may have brushed on some extra orange foundation before leaving (missed a bit around the edges): And can he breath? Trump looks like he is gasping for air pic.twitter.com/4k2v4Jxlir — Brennan Murphy (@brenonade) October 5, 2020 Not a hoax. Who released this
DXY was stable Friday night: The Australian dollar was weak: Gold eased: Oil crashed: Base metals were mixed: Miners did OK: EMs fell: Junk did OK: The yield curve steepened as the “blue wave” becomes a reality: Stocks fell sharply, especially growth: In news, US jobs were pretty weak relative to expectations. The bigger news was,
US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania have both tested positive for COVID-19 and have been isolated in quarantine: Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020 This came after the
Via the BBC: Trump: “We built the greatest economy in history” Verdict: That’s not right – there have been times in US history when the economy was stronger. Before the coronavirus outbreak, President Trump claimed to have generated historic economic growth. It’s true the economy was doing well before the pandemic – continuing a trend
This is the rolling agony that Psycho Creighton and the IPA would inflict upon us if they could. Rolling waves of virus and death: As the economy opens then shuts then opens then shuts: It looks very much like the US is headed into its third wave as winter approaches. Expect another economic downdraft to
I didn’t think that there was any clear winner in the debate. But that is a win for Joe Biden given he is comfortably ahead in the polls: As well, Trump’s childish antics were energetic but not rational. With 200k dead Americans owing to virus mismanagement, it is my view that the polity will be
Via Citi: Citi Private Bank today released results from a survey led by the Private Capital Group, providing a rare insight into the thinking of some of the world’s sophisticated family offices and investors during an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In one of the private banking industry’s most comprehensive polls* of investor sentiment since the onset
Via Crikey: It takes a brave publication these days to claim an authoritative prediction for November’s US election. The Economist has combined polling and demographic and economic data into a model developed with Columbia University political scientists Andrew Gelman and Merlin Hedemann. And it’s currently predicting a landslide victory for Joe Biden. The model is currently predicting 333 electoral
Jeez: I’m not sure transferring power is democratic thing to do “win, lose or draw”….but with that cleared up the President’s response is appalling. https://t.co/KhbkIDPdor — Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) September 24, 2020
Via News: A data scientist who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 says the US President is currently on track to win again. Professor Bela Stantic is the founder and director of Griffith University’s Big Data and Smart Analytics Lab, where he analyses social media data and sentiment to predict
Ray Dalio at Bloomie: Meh. There’s a difference between cyclical deflation of a currency and structural. Dalio is about two hundred years too early by confusing the first and second. Perhaps because he is so biased towards China. Recall this hogwash: To refresh your memory, the chart below shows the relative powers of the leading
Via FTAlphaville: Alphaville does not have an opinion on the political effectiveness of boat parades. Putting a Trump flag in a rod holder and motoring around on the weekend isn’t any sillier than putting a sticker on a car bumper and driving to work during the week. And the Trump flags are, legally, bumper stickers.
It’s looking more like US presidential betting markets are today tied up with stock market liquidity: As said last week, I wonder if there is some relationship between stock market gains and those plumping for Trump, beyond simple sentiment. The polls are still strongly blue: Though Trump has gained in swing states: I still
A bit silly in my book: Polling has lifted a bit: I wonder if the betting markets aren’t a little swayed by the broader stock market bubble in their own case of reverse Trump derangement syndrome. There’ll be some significant crossover in the punters. The virus is helping so there’s some support for the betting
