US Economy


How El Trumpo can win the election

Via the FT: For Mr Trump to exploit this opportunity, he would need to drop his offensive tributes to symbols and leaders of the Confederacy and instead focus attention on what has been dubbed “cancel culture”. This cause was launched by young progressives who call out or boycott public figures for objectionable behaviour. But many other


US economy sinks deeper into COVID-depression

A little US economy chartathon for you. The consumer is operating at about 95% 2019 levels: Some areas are crushed, others better: Supply-side is rebounding but from very low levels: Business is buggered: And employment trashed: Fiscal is vital lifeline: As recovery slides away:      On increased lockdowns: As virus runs riot: Not exactly


Trump sets up tilt at tyranny

Via the AFR: Donald Trump may not accept the results of the forthcoming presidential election, he has said, setting the stage for an epic showdown in November. In a wild and contentious interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News, broadcast on Sunday (AEST), the President said he was “not a good loser” and was fully


US economy slumps into w-shaped depression

The US consumer has choked. Michigan Consumer Confidence: Consumer sentiment retreated in the first half of July due to the widespread resurgence of the coronavirus. The promising gain recorded in June was reversed, leaving the Sentiment Index in early July insignificantly above the April low (+1.4 points). Following the steepest two-month decline on record, it


Kanye drops out as Biden crusies to victory

What a bummer: On July 4, Kanye West tweeted that he was running for president. It was treated as one of his typical grandiloquent pronouncements. The tweet sparked a lot of opinion pieces, cable news segments, and even a question in an Oval Office interview with Donald Trump. But most people brushed it off. In a follow-up interview with Forbes, West pledged,


AEP: Dont be fooled. Markets are pricing for depression

Via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Global bond markets refuse to ratify a V-shaped economic recovery. Futures contracts in fixed income derivatives are even more bearish, signalling nothing less than a worldwide deflationary slump as far as the eye can see. “If markets are pricing a ‘V’, they’re going about it in an odd way,” says Andrew Sheets


Westpac: Looming downside risks for US economy

By Westpac’s Elliot Clarke: Currently, the US economy finds itself between fiercely opposing forces. On the one hand is the rapid surge in jobs seen during May and June and the consequent swelling of recovery expectations. Opposing these forces however is the dramatic increase in the COVID-19 new case count this month to worrying new


Here comes the second wave of US COVID-19 deaths

by Chris Becker There was an unusual blip in the amount of Americans who died from COVID-19 reported on Tuesday, that could have been written off (as sick as that sounds) as the usual weekend anomaly, whereby deaths over the weekend – in this case a 3 day weekend due to 4th of July holiday


US services ISM boosted to recovery levels

by Chris Becker Well, if you open up your economy again – and damn the COVID-19 torpedoes – you’re going to get a recovery, and that’s what the June non-manufacturing ISM print showed overnight, providing yet another catalyst for US stocks to head higher. The texture from ISM: The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business PMI


Biden polling lead narrows

Via RealClear today: It hasn’t changed the betting: And why would it? Deaths are still better: But Texas has exhausted its hospital capacity and it looks like they will climbe again from here: Still looks like the virus will determine the election.


US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June (Friday is a holiday).  The consensus is for an increase of 3.1 million non-farm payroll jobs, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 12.3%. Last month, the BLS reported 2,509,000 jobs added in May and the


Shane Oliver: Beware Biden bust

Via Shane Oliver: Introduction Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets. However, markets may soon start to pay more attention as the election is


Murdoch dumps Trump

Via Crikey: Murdoch watchers are about to see in real life how Lachlan handles the dilemma his father regularly faced: how to choose between the political right (in this case, Trump) and the likely political winner (almost certainly not Trump). It’s not just the polls, with averages currently showing Joe Biden up about 10%. It’s


Golden oldies abandon Trump

Hoocoodanode that killing your base would…well…kill your base? Via the FT: The coronavirus pandemic is eroding Donald Trump’s popularity among a group that was crucial to his 2016 victory — older white Americans — a worrying sign for the president’s re-election hopes. According to a New York Times-Siena College poll released last week, two-fifths of


US hurtles towards fiscal cliff

Via Bank of America: Fiscal: look out below In the face of the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal stimulus has poured into the economy. Washington has pushed in roughly $2.8tr of stimulus, equaling 13% of GDP while the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to $7.1tr. The rapid and forceful support on the policy front likely


Brainless Biden sustains polling lead

Here is the problem: — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 27, 2020 Trump should be careful. It won’t be a good look losing to an empty head. Polls: Betting markets: Brainless Biden is still an unbackable favourite. And why not? Senility is no match for homicidal ineptitude: Brainless is as brainless does.


Sick US consumer won’t save the world

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: US consumption disappoints pre-“second-wave”. US consumption rose by a smaller-than-expected 8.1% in May, albeit with upward revisions to prior months’ data. More timely retail sales, chain store turnover and card spending data have been pointing to a stronger recovery, which has not manifested yet in the official data. The rise in consumption


US headed for double-dip recession

Via Calculated Risk, the best and most honest judge of the US economy that I know of: On March 31st, I wrote: This is a healthcare crisis, and the economic outlook is based on presumptions about the course of the pandemic.I’ve been updating my outlook monthly, and turning more and more pessimistic due to the poor US


A deep dive into the US virus

Via GaveKal: It is clear that the southern United States is in the grip of a major wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. About half of US states, mainly in the south and southwest, have rising daily infections; and for the whole country, daily new cases are fast approaching 30,000, up sharply from the rate of


Trump has lost his spark and the election

For a brief moment yesterday I thought Donald Trump was back in the race: White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday the trade deal with China is “over,” and he linked the breakdown in part to Washington’s anger over Beijing’s not sounding the alarm earlier about the coronavirus outbreak. “It’s over,” Navarro told


Biden polls surge with virus

El Trumpo is mad: Trump: When you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people. You’re going to find more cases. So I said to my people slow the testing down please. — Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) June 21, 2020 Americans seems to have had enough:   Betting odds: Early days but


American idiots catch the virus

There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics. Now do total cases. — Drew Dickson (@AlbertBridgeCap) June 18, 2020 Literally killing the base. Pretty stupid. Latest polls: Betting: With 200k dead by the election, Trump is going to need a VERY LARGE distraction to win. Cue Green Day:


Biden stretches lead over flailing Trump

And this won’t help, via the NYT: Mr. Bolton describes several episodes where the president expressed willingness to halt criminal investigations “to, in effect, give personal favors to dictators he liked,” citing cases involving major firms in China and Turkey. “The pattern looked like obstruction of justice as a way of life, which we couldn’t accept,” Mr. Bolton writes,


Trumpland crashes into virus

The US is still in deep virus trouble and getting more so. Via NYT: It’s not all rising curves in Trumpland, but it’s mostly so: To wit, red states suffering more: Thankfully, death rates are still falling is the north east pandemic subsides: But for how long as other state hospital systems crash into overload?


Trump to cut work visas

Via WSJ: The Trump administration is weighing a proposal to suspend a slate of employment-based immigration visas, including the coveted H-1B high-skilled visa, according to administration officials familiar with the talks, among several possible measures amid the economic fallout of the pandemic. The proposed suspension could extend into the government’s new fiscal year, beginning Oct.