Australian Economy

Simon Kuestenmacher from The Demographics Group has penned another article spruiking the benefits of a ‘Big Australia’, arguing that it will be key to the nation’s economic success in the years ahead: “In Australia we create wealth by doing four things very well: Mining, agriculture, international education and tourism.

Before last month’s interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Australian households were already spending a record share of their incomes on mortgage repayments: Australian households were also spending a higher share of their incomes on essentials like rents and energy following rampant inflation over recent years.

The greatest accomplishment of the Albanese Labor Government has been delivering the worst rental and homelessness crisis in living memory. The Albanese government has lifted net overseas migration to an estimated record high 500,000, driven by surging temporary migration (mostly foreign students).

Australia’s population growth has been off the charts this century, adding 7.6 million people. The 2023 Intergenerational Report (IGR) projected that Australia’s population will grow to 40.5 million people by 2062-63: This means that Australia’s population will have more than doubled in only 60 years.

ANZ with the report.

So says Westpac.

Deloitte Access Economics has released its Employment Forecasts for 2024 and 2025, which tips anaemic jobs growth next year alongside a sharp rise in the nation’s unemployment rate. Specifically, Deloitte forecasts “national employment growth of just 0.5% (75,000 workers) in calendar year 2024, before gradually increasing to 1.3% (177,000 workers) in calendar year 2025”.

On Thursday, I gave our weekly Treasury of Common Sense interview on Radio 2GB with Luke Grant.

CBA Senior Economist and Senior Currency Strategist, Kristina Clifton, has published research estimating the amount of capital expenditures needed for Australia to transition to ‘net zero’ carbon emissions.

The Age this week published the below chart showing the dramatic surge in retail vacancy rates across Melbourne’s strip shops: As shown above, Melbourne’s vacancy rate has risen from around 3% in the late 2010s to around 10% currently.

This will not please the RBA.

Albo the Disaster is burying his energy and immigration inflation shocks under subsidies.

Simon Kuestenmacher from The Demographics Group believes that Australia’s population will double in size in just over 50 years, based on the ABS’ latest population projections: “The most bearish scenario sees our population doubling by 2129, the median scenario by 2095, and the most bullish scenario sees Australia at 52 million people by 2074.

Following the 0.4% fall in the ABS monthly inflation indicator for October, CBA economist Stephen Wu believes there is a good chance that Australia’s CPI inflation could fall below 4% by the end of this year.

By Harry Ottley, economist at CBA: Key Points: Construction work done increased by 1.3%/qtr in Q3 23.

Justin Fabo from Macquarie Group published the below chart on Twitter (X) showing how New Zealand’s unemployment rate has begun to rise, which follows the sharp increase in SEEK job ads: Fabo also remarked that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand began its rate hiking cycle far earlier than Australia in October 2021.

By Stephen Wu, economist at CBA: Key Points: Retail trade fell by 0.2% in October, following the solid 0.9% gain in September.

Last week, economist Gerard Minack published a brilliant analysis detailing how Australia’s productivity growth and living standards have been harmed by nearly two decades of historically high immigration.

Last week’s Commbank IQ data on spending was an eye-opener and would no doubt be causing headaches within the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The SEEK monthly wage growth indicator. NATIONAL ADVERTISED SALARY TRENDS Advertised salaries rose by 0.3% in October, a slowdown from the previous three months. Year-on-year (y/y) advertised salary growth remains strong at 4.6%, but has slowed from the 4.8% recorded in both September and August.