Australian interest rates

While rate hikes are off the agenda for now, courtesy of last week’s lower-than-expected trimmed-mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would remain concerned about the strength of consumer spending.

In mid-August 2025, the Albanese government gathered together economists, business leaders and policymakers for its ‘Economic Reform Roundtable’.

Goldman is getting dovish after yesterday’s softer-than-expected CPI. It notes that the quarterly trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred indicator of underlying inflation, increased by 0.81% quarter over quarter, or 3.65% year over year. The result fell short of the RBA’s May SMP projection (1.0%qoq).

Financial markets have recently lifted their expectations of another 25 bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The AFR has gone gah, gah over some solid analysis by Baranjoey on inflation. The former paper-turned-business grovel sheet notes that the “eternally insightful” Jo Masters (apparently she is god’s economist) says just 10 items explain about three quarters of the movement in the trimmed mean over the past 25 years.

Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro published the following chart last week, illustrating how Australians are paying among the highest mortgage rates in the world: The gap in mortgage rates between Australia and New Zealand has also widened.

CBA notes that two key data points will determine whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike the official cash rate (OCR) at its next meeting in August, namely: This week’s Labour Force Survey (23 July); and The June CPI the following week (29 July).

The interest rate futures market has become far less hawkish on interest rates.

DXY is holding support as the war resumes.

In March, I wrote the following commentary about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary tightening: Author Mark Twain once famously said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.

Wednesday’s CPI inflation release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has increased pressure on the RBA to lift rates.

Today’s CPI inflation release for May from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) delivered a material downside surprise to headline inflation, largely due to lower fuel costs.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unanimously voted to keep the official cash rate on hold at 4.35% at today’s monetary policy meeting.

Recently, two major banks – CBA and NAB – have pivoted on interest rates and now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the official cash rate on hold until mid-next year before delivering cuts.

The past week has seen two major banks pivot on interest rates. They now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the official cash rate on hold until mid-next year, before delivering cuts.

The latest Australian interest rate futures pricing suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will increase the official cash rate once more this year, taking it to a terminal peak of 3.60%.

You’re right, Michelle, for once. But Ms Bullock said she was not concerned about “stagflation” occurring in Australia at this point. Stagflation is a situation where economic activity is stagnating and you’re dealing with high inflation (stagnation + inflation).

Never mind competitiveness!

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released CPI inflation data for April, which retraces some of the spike observed last month as petrol prices fell 7% and public transport subsidies lowered transport prices.

According to Sarah Hunter, assistant governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the RBA anticipates that inflation will rise more than previously anticipated due to rising oil prices brought on by the Middle East crisis.