Well blow me down with a feather: The RBA lowering their inflation forecasts in the SoMP last week reduces urgency to hike … “buy the RBA some time” But .. “Against the backdrop of the fastest 8-month expansion in full-time employment on record, we caution against underestimating the pace at which spare capacity in the economy is
Australian interest rates are set by the Reserve Bank of Australia, an independent body established in 1959. It is guided by an inflation targeting regime that seeks price stability in the 2-3% consumer price index band. The RBA originally also governed prudential policy but following several large scandals and bankruptcies in the late 1990s that role was separated into a discrete entity titled the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority.
The RBA is widely well-regarded despite a recent history of buried corruption allegations and a board of business rent seekers that, in more ethical nations, would not have their hands anywhere near monetary policy levers.
In 1990, Australian interest rates were set at 17.5%. But during the Great Moderation, interest rates consistently fell alongside inflation and oscillated in a band between 1.5% and 7.5%.
Owing to an endowment of resources that proved very attractive to China during the Global Financial Crisis, Australian interest rates did not fall to the lows experienced in other developed markets. Indeed, Australia was the first developed market to raise interest after the crisis though it has subsequently had to lower them again as the commodity boom subsided.
During the 2000s, Australian interest rates began to be influenced by external economic pressures much more than previously. This process was driven by the huge offshore borrowing of Australia’s big four banks in wholesale markets. As their offshore liabilities ballooned, the banks were increasingly exposed to the vicissitudes of far flung markets and investors. This reached a head in the global financial crisis of 2008 when banks faced much higher demands from offshore investors for better risk-adjusted returns, forcing them to break with the Australian cash rate in setting local interest rates.
Ever since, Australian bank have regularly adjusted lending and deposit interest rates unilaterally and independently around the cash rate set by the RBA. These interest rates moves were a constant source of political friction as politicians sought to protect the Australian property bubble.
In 2015, Australian interest rate policy was forced to return to a defacto shared responsibility arrangement between the RBA and APRA. With the lowest interest rates in fifty years, the Australian property bubble inflated to new dimensions even as a global yield trade drove up the value of the Australian dollar, threatening economic growth. Eventually the solution found was to apply macroprudential policy to some mortgage lending so that interest rates could be lowered to take pressure off the currency.
MacroBusiness was the most accurate forecaster on Australia interest rates in the market from 2011 forward. It predicted both the turn in rates downwards in 2011 and has had the most dovish outlook ever since. It also lead the debate around, and implementation of, macroprudential tools in 2014. MacroBusiness covers all apposite data and wider analysis of these issues daily.
From Bloxo: Don’t throw out the old models quite yet Australia’s labour market is tightening up. The official survey is showing the strongest y-o-y jobs growth in the post-Global Financial Crisis period and the timely indicators suggest that this momentum is likely to continue. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.5% from a peak of
Via the AFR: Amazon has confirmed the fears of Australian retailers by claiming it is willing to sacrifice short-term returns to ensure long-term success as it prepares to invest $700 million in Australia over the next five years. “Let me tell you we are getting really, really really close,” Mr Braeuniger told about 500 potential
From Deputy Governor Guy Debelle: One of the ongoing themes in the global economy since the financial crisis has been the long-lasting paucity of business investment spending. This has been despite conditions that, in the past, have been very favourable for investment spending, such as low borrowing rates, strong corporate balance sheets and solid profitability.
Via former RBA boffin Stephen Grenville: For the countries affected by the 2007-08 financial crisis, the recovery has been lacklustre. There was no self-equilibrating ‘V’-shaped return to the pre-crisis GDP growth trajectory (see the familiar graph below, or here). Nearly a decade on, the recovery may be more assured, but the performance of these economies raises
From yesterday’s statement: Growth in housing debt has been outpacing the slow growth in household income for some time. To address the medium-term risks associated with high and rising household indebtedness, APRA has introduced a number of supervisory measures. Credit standards have been tightened in a way that has reduced the risk profile of borrowers.
RBA statement: At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. Conditions in the global economy are continuing to improve. Labour markets have tightened and further above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. Growth in the Chinese economy is being supported by increased
Via BofAML: Can the RBA ever raise rates? That’s the provocative question posed by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch’s Aussie rates strategists. Friday’s very disappointing retail sales figures reinforced the fact that consumers are, collectively, the Achilles’ heel of the economy. It’s sent economists into a bit of a tizz, although none, the BAML team included, expect the RBA to
Via Bloomie comes Dr Rainbow: “If growth continues to pick up, then I think they’ll raise rates long before inflation returns to target,” said John Edwards, a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and former RBA board member. “My view is influenced by what Phil Lowe’s been saying for many, many months
Place your rate cut bets. The shadow has turned hawkish: No Melbourne Cup Rate Rise But Future Increase Looking More Likely Consumer price inflation was 1.8% in the third quarter, below the consensus forecast of 2% and also below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target band 2-3%. This drop is likely to be transitory
Via Westpac comes a cool chart: The wait for confirmation is nearly over with the ABS releasing the information paper on the new 17th series of the CPI on Monday, 6thNovember. This paper will summarise the major changes that occur with the 17th series which will be incorporated into the December quarter 2017 CPI (due for release on the
Gail Kelly says so: Former Westpac chief executive Gail Kelly has slammed the proposed South Australian bank tax, warning a short-term “sugar fix” sought by the Weatherill government will ultimately mean less investment and fewer jobs. In her first public remarks about the controversial impost, Ms Kelly yesterday told The Australian that a “quick fix, a sugar
From Australian Parasite: The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) will be tasked to infiltrate the non-bank sector for enhanced data gathering, according to Treasurer Scott Morrison APRA will have “eyes on the ground” with its ability to collect data from non-ADI lenders, Morrison said in an address to the Financial Services Council in Sydney yesterday (30 October). “Such
Via The Australian: South Australia’s claims that its investment standing has not suffered as a result of the planned bank tax have been challenged after a significant international investor said it had slashed its exposure to Australia because of growing political risk. As the state’s upper house prepares to vote this week on the tax
By Leith van Onselen From Chris Joye this afternoon: I am looking for at least two RBA rate increases next year on the presumption the globally synchronised upturn in growth elongates. And I think that somewhere between the RBA’s second and fourth hikes we get a bona fide correction in Aussie home values that will
From RBA Deputy Governor, Guy DeBelle: Uncertainty is one of the few certainties in monetary policy decision-making. It enters at nearly every stage of the process – from understanding where the economy is at the moment to knowing where it will be in the future. Tonight, I will discuss some of the main ways that
From the AFR: Weak wages, falling import prices and fierce retail competition have overwhelmed a spike in energy prices, putting downward pressure on inflation and cruelling prospects of any near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hike. Were it not for rising electricity and gas bills, as well as government-mandated “sin tax” hikes on alcohol and tobacco, inflation may
Some folks just won’t take yes for an answer: Today’s Q3 CPI print delivered a downside surprise, with underlying inflation still below the RBA’s 2-3% target band The key measures of underlying inflation showed it running at 1.85% y-o-y (the market had expected 2.0% y-o-y) We still expect a tightening labour market will mean that
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the September quarter 0f 2017 which, despite energy prices surging, registered both soft headline and underlying inflation. According to the ABS, headline CPI rose by 0.6% in the September quarter, well above the June quarter’s 0.2%