Australian interest rates

This is the ship of fools that nearly cut rates 50bps in May, then didn’t cut at all in the following meeting despite an economy that had clearly deteriorated.

When the Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe first began raising interest rates in May 2022, the question in the minds of many commentators and economists was, when will they be cut again?

After years of failure, the RBA has given up entirely on forecasting and is driving through the rearview mirror.

Jesus, what a pack of nupties.

In the nation’s collective consciousness there are few issues that occupy as much mental headspace and backyard BBQ conversation as interest rates.

As the global economy continues to decelerate amidst a backdrop of escalating trade conflicts and war in the Middle East, interest rate futures markets are increasingly pricing in additional rate cuts from the RBA.

With a Labour government running an immigration-led labour market expansion economic model that intrinsically lowers living standards, the last thing beleaguered Australian households needed was the RBA to join the economic stomping.

Inflation is falling across the advanced world.

Following a wave of softer-than-expected data and the dovish May RBA decision, CBA has revised its expectations for interest rate cuts forward.

Via the ABS.

The official Q1 CPI inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that the policy-important trimmed mean inflation rate fell to 2.9% year over year, staying within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target range of 2% to 3%.

According to Westpac, financial markets have now priced a 97% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will reduce the official cash rate (OCR) at its monetary policy board meeting in July.

The NAB survey yesterday was a shocker.

Gerard Minack destroys Australia’s sick economy.

All one really needs to be seen to be smart is Australia’s is to be loudest.

Westpac states the obvious.

Poor old McGoo, does it again it. From Goldman: Overall, the late-2024 pick-up in Australian economic momentum looks to have faltered in 1Q2025, raising downside risks to the RBA’s (recently downgraded) forecast consumer recovery.

Financial markets believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver another three 25 bp cuts to the official cash rate (OCR) in 2025, taking the OCR to 3.10% by year end.

The official Q1 CPI inflation print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the policy-important trimmed mean inflation rate declined to 2.9% year-on-year, within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target of 2% to 3%.

Westpac is reading the economy right as examines Q1 GDP.

The post-COVID burst in Aussie business investment is over.

Westpac on monthly inflation.

The Q1 quarterly inflation release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that annual trimmed mean inflation declined to 2.9%, to be within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2% to 3% inflation target.