European Economy

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Rise in isolationism caused by drop in education

by Chris Becker An interesting study on the motivations and causes behind the shock Brexit vote which suggests a lack of higher education. Not surprising given it was also lower education levels that were “crucial” to Trump winning the Presidency. Its much easier to appeal to emotion than logic, particularly when it comes to isolationism.

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Poor old Japan: Low unemployment, less crowded, cheaper housing

By Leith van Onselen For more than a decade, the Productivity Commission has debunked the common myth that immigration can overcome population ageing. For example: PC (2005): “Despite popular thinking to the contrary, immigration policy is also not a feasible countermeasure [to an ageing population]. It affects population numbers more than the age structure”. PC

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The French election market playbook

There are really four key scenarios that can occur in this Sundays (Monday morning for us Aussie’s) French election and they could really shape the performance of markets like EUR/USD (and EUR crosses), France 40 cash and more indirect markets such as the ASX 200, FTSE 100 cash and gold. Firstly, it’s important to understand

8

Sudden euro risk as French election convulsed

The USD firmed last night: Commodity currencies were weak: Gold too: Brent was flogged: Base metals rebounded a bit: Big miners mostly didn’t: EM stocks were hit: High yield was OK: US bonds were flat: So were European spreads: And stocks faded: It’s bizarrely calm given what is suddenly at stake, via the FT: French

7

Is Europe going to swing Left or Right this year?

As the de-globalisation movement gathers momentum, the basic assumption for all analysts should be that the political centre is dead. The “third way” as it was called, which drew in parties from Right and Left to a central consensus that pursued open borders economics is now political poison across the developed world as the losers

7

European polls head for Heaven and Hell

Slowish action overnight with the US closed but one measure hit new wides. European bond spreads continue to blow out: French yields are now at their widest to German since 2012, the FT explains: The premium for 10-year French debt climbed to a fresh post-eurozone crisis high over equivalent German Bunds on Monday, reflecting investor

61

French election thrown into chaos

While we’re all fixated on the deglobalisation fireworks of Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson, neither is the most pressing threat. That honour still lies in Europe where French elections are again entering chaos as the conservative candidate, Francois Fillon, implodes, via The Independent: French presidential hopeful and long-time front-runner François Fillon could be eliminated in

29

German terror makes everything worse

ISIS has laid claim to the German truck attack: Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the Berlin truck attack that killed 12 people, via its news station, as police released a suspect from custody a day after the deadly crash. The attacker was a “soldier of the Islamic State” who acted in response to calls

2

Was the ECB hawkish or dovish?

Dovish says Westpac: Ahead of the December ECB Governing Council meeting, market participants had been debating if the existing program would be sustained or tapered, or indeed whether we would have to wait until March 2017 to find out what the ECB had in mind. Thankfully, after having failed to do so in the past,

1

Italian banks in the gun

As Renzi falls so too do Italy’s banks, from the FT: Monte Paschi and advisers JP Morgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a E5bn recapitalisation, according to people informed of the plan, Rachel Sanderson in Milan reports. Senior bankers will

23

Italy votes “no”, Renzi goes

Early indications in the Italian referendum are poor for Matteo Renzi: Matteo Renzi seems set to lose a referendum on his flagship constitutional reforms, according to exit polls released on Sunday night, a result that could lead to the Italian prime minister’s resignation. Although exit polls have been unreliable in Italy in the past, they

12

Austria rejects neo-Nazis

Another pollster failure and a good one, from the FT: Austria looked to have voted against a far-right nationalist as head of state in a presidential election race which became a test of political populism in Europe after the election of Donald Trump as US president. Norbert Hofer, the Freedom party candidate, won 46.7 per

0

Your Italian referendum fallout guide

From Citi: 1. The referendum is not a make-or-break moment for Italian politics. Although important, near-term risks stemming from the referendum outcome may be overstated. A No vote would maintain the (perhaps not ideal, but wellknown) institutional status quo, although it could lead to government resignations. We reckon on balance the reform is positive for

14

European panic grows as Italexit looms

Matteo Renzi is having none of it, from The Guardian: The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has doubled down on a promise to resign if he loses an upcoming referendum, saying the “decrepit system” that would be left in the wake of his defeat would have to be taken care of by someone else. The

7

Italexit odds rise

The de-globalisation revolution intensifies today as Italian PM Matteo Renzi confirms he may resign if he loses his referendum, via Reuters: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi suggested on Monday that he may not stay on if a referendum on constitutional reform that he is championing fails. Asked in a radio interview what he would do