Via Macquarie: The business cycle in the Eurozone We forecast growth in the Eurozone to be 2.1% YoY this year, the highest since 2001. Lagging the US recovery by 3-4 years, we expect Eurozone growth to remain above trend. As with the US, as the rate of employment growth fades, so will consumption and overall
by Chris Becker An interesting study on the motivations and causes behind the shock Brexit vote which suggests a lack of higher education. Not surprising given it was also lower education levels that were “crucial” to Trump winning the Presidency. Its much easier to appeal to emotion than logic, particularly when it comes to isolationism.
By Leith van Onselen For more than a decade, the Productivity Commission has debunked the common myth that immigration can overcome population ageing. For example: PC (2005): “Despite popular thinking to the contrary, immigration policy is also not a feasible countermeasure [to an ageing population]. It affects population numbers more than the age structure”. PC
There are really four key scenarios that can occur in this Sundays (Monday morning for us Aussie’s) French election and they could really shape the performance of markets like EUR/USD (and EUR crosses), France 40 cash and more indirect markets such as the ASX 200, FTSE 100 cash and gold. Firstly, it’s important to understand
The USD firmed last night: Commodity currencies were weak: Gold too: Brent was flogged: Base metals rebounded a bit: Big miners mostly didn’t: EM stocks were hit: High yield was OK: US bonds were flat: So were European spreads: And stocks faded: It’s bizarrely calm given what is suddenly at stake, via the FT: French
Don’t look now but European election polling is turning bullish for growth. First up, the Netherlands poll in six days is seeing a crash in support for Geert Wilders’ racism party (in grey): Mr Wilders could never win anyway given he could not form a coalition but with his vote down to 20% from a high
Via Citi: Following the Brexit result and surprise election of Donald Trump, could the French elect National Front leader Marine Le Pen – who is running on an explicitly anti-EU platform and has promised an In/out EU referendum – in the upcoming Presidential elections? Such an outcome is only eclipsed by the prospect of a
As the de-globalisation movement gathers momentum, the basic assumption for all analysts should be that the political centre is dead. The “third way” as it was called, which drew in parties from Right and Left to a central consensus that pursued open borders economics is now political poison across the developed world as the losers
Slowish action overnight with the US closed but one measure hit new wides. European bond spreads continue to blow out: French yields are now at their widest to German since 2012, the FT explains: The premium for 10-year French debt climbed to a fresh post-eurozone crisis high over equivalent German Bunds on Monday, reflecting investor
A nice wrap from Chris Weston at IG: As mentioned in previous reports a Le Pen win in the 23 April first round voting seems high given her current polling, but then she is likely to lose badly to the new favourite Macron in the run-off on 7 May. Even if she did win, electing
The USD rebounded firmly last night. Euro was weak, yuan and yen firm too: Commodity currencies were soft: Gold powered despite the USD: Brent sagged: Base metals rebounded: Big miners did not: EM stocks eased: High yield was firm: US bonds were heavily bid: As European spreads launched: Stocks fell back: In short, a little
While we’re all fixated on the deglobalisation fireworks of Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson, neither is the most pressing threat. That honour still lies in Europe where French elections are again entering chaos as the conservative candidate, Francois Fillon, implodes, via The Independent: French presidential hopeful and long-time front-runner François Fillon could be eliminated in
ISIS has laid claim to the German truck attack: Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the Berlin truck attack that killed 12 people, via its news station, as police released a suspect from custody a day after the deadly crash. The attacker was a “soldier of the Islamic State” who acted in response to calls
Dovish says Westpac: Ahead of the December ECB Governing Council meeting, market participants had been debating if the existing program would be sustained or tapered, or indeed whether we would have to wait until March 2017 to find out what the ECB had in mind. Thankfully, after having failed to do so in the past,
As Renzi falls so too do Italy’s banks, from the FT: Monte Paschi and advisers JP Morgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a E5bn recapitalisation, according to people informed of the plan, Rachel Sanderson in Milan reports. Senior bankers will
Early indications in the Italian referendum are poor for Matteo Renzi: Matteo Renzi seems set to lose a referendum on his flagship constitutional reforms, according to exit polls released on Sunday night, a result that could lead to the Italian prime minister’s resignation. Although exit polls have been unreliable in Italy in the past, they
Another pollster failure and a good one, from the FT: Austria looked to have voted against a far-right nationalist as head of state in a presidential election race which became a test of political populism in Europe after the election of Donald Trump as US president. Norbert Hofer, the Freedom party candidate, won 46.7 per
Don’t look now, from RT: The far-right Dutch anti-immigration Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, would become the largest party in the parliament and beat the prime minister’s ruling conservative liberals if elections were held today, according to a new poll data. The Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) would win 33 seats in the
From Citi: 1. The referendum is not a make-or-break moment for Italian politics. Although important, near-term risks stemming from the referendum outcome may be overstated. A No vote would maintain the (perhaps not ideal, but wellknown) institutional status quo, although it could lead to government resignations. We reckon on balance the reform is positive for
The Italian referendum is all but lost, from the Express: ITALY looks likely to be the next fed up European Union (EU) nation to deliver an angry message to Brussels as the last poll before its referendum predicts the populist vote will win. Anti-establishment votes are ahead by five points in the final public opinion
From the FT: The late Thomas Bernhard, a mordant Austrian author, once likened the mentality of his compatriots to punch cake, a rum-soaked national dessert. On the outside it is red, like the left; inside it is brown, like Nazism; and it is always a bit drunk. Austria’s December 4 presidential election re-run pits Alexander
Not much news overnight around the Italian referendum but the de-globalisation revolution is running red hot in France. French bond spreads to Germany have not moved as much as Italian but they are widening: From Gideon Rachman at the FT: Following this weekend’s centre-right primary, it seems likely that Ms Le Pen will face a
The Italexit shock looms, via Reuters (chart from Bloomie): Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s hopes of winning his referendum on constitutional reform are dwindling fast as previously undecided voters are choosing to oppose his plan, according to pollsters. Renzi has promised to resign if he loses the Dec. 4 ballot over his proposal to reduce the
Matteo Renzi is having none of it, from The Guardian: The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has doubled down on a promise to resign if he loses an upcoming referendum, saying the “decrepit system” that would be left in the wake of his defeat would have to be taken care of by someone else. The
The de-globalisation revolution intensifies today as Italian PM Matteo Renzi confirms he may resign if he loses his referendum, via Reuters: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi suggested on Monday that he may not stay on if a referendum on constitutional reform that he is championing fails. Asked in a radio interview what he would do
