by Chris Becker Mark your calendars traders and investors alike, because its going to get biz-ay around mid-March. From the BBC: Theresa May has promised MPs a vote on delaying the UK’s departure from the EU or ruling out a no-deal Brexit, if they reject her deal next month. Mrs May made a statement to

More great stuff from the excellent Damien Boey today: European growth has slowed sharply in recent quarters. In 4Q, GDP expanded by a meagre 0.2%. This followed another meek 0.2% growth reading in 3Q. Year-ended growth has slowed to 1.2% in 2018 from 2.7% in 2017. Compositionally, there are reasons to be concerned as well.

by Chris Becker ECB President Mario Draghi pushed the Euro off the cliff early this morning AEDST with his post-meeting press conference comments: “The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook have moved to the downside on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and

by Chris Becker Well it’s a red letter day for the UK as Parliament votes on PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal tonight, AEDT time. The fear, doubt and uncertainty (FUD) brigades are out in force while the continent goes from a Gallic shrug to a stern Prussian frown over the fracas. From the BBC: Theresa

by Chris Becker As we grind ever closer to the end of March, the no-deal/deal imbroglio within the UK Parliament over Brexit is devolving, with even Japanese PM Shinzo Abe putting his two bits in: The World does not want a no-deal Brexit, the Japanese Prime Minister said as he gave his “total support” to Theresa

by Chris Becker Overshadowed by the ongoing US-China trade talks, Brexit shenigans and the Trump wall “crisis”, there’s real reason to be concerned for the global trade machine with the latest German industrial production numbers overnight shocking everyone: From FT: Fears of a prolonged slowdown in the eurozone grew on Tuesday after a sharp fall

Via Capital Economics: While US readers were settling in for Thanksgiving dinners, those of us on the other side of the pond were left to pick over the remains of a Brexit deal that looks dead on arrival. Our UK economists have covered the various twists and turns in detail and copies of the various

Via Mark Cudmore at Bloomie: If Italy is going to avoid a full-blown euro zone debt crisis that’s capable of causing turmoil in global financial markets, communication will be key. Much of the investor complacency toward the threat from Italy’s debt crisis is the fallacy that worse scenarios have been survived elsewhere before. Let’s be

by Chris Becker A hallmark of NATO, the European Union and US foreign policy in Europe has been about containing the economic and political behemoth of Germany whilst defending the Western half of the continent from external threats. In the post WW2 era this has worked, save for the creation of the Euro which effectively

Elliot Clarke at Westpac: In July, President Draghi held closely to the tone and narrative conveyed at the June meeting. Of note in the press conference were a number of key points on: the path for policy; the consequence for the Euro; and the need for fiscal authorities to aid the economy, the latter representing

Via the FT: Horst Seehofer, the German interior minister, has set Angela Merkel an ultimatum, saying he would resign unless the chancellor acceded to his demands for tougher controls on the German border. It was the latest development in a conflict that could threatens to shatter the alliance between Mr Seehofer’s Bavarian CSU party and

And I’m not talking about soccer, via the FT: Italy’s new populist government demanded the EU rip up its system for dealing with migrants at a mini-summit in Brussels on Sunday that laid bare divisions in the bloc over migration policy and piled pressure on German chancellor Angela Merkel. Dubbed the “summit to save Merkel”,

Via FTAlphaville: Following a turbulent week a fortnight ago, markets have calmed and were further assuaged by new finance minister, Giovanni Tria, saying on Sunday that “we are not discussing any proposal to exit the euro. The government is determined to avoid the materialisation of market conditions that push us towards an exit in any way.” However

Oh yes, from Elliot Clarke at Westpac: The past week has, yet again, emphasised the fragile nature of European politics and the Continent’s growth narrative. While the jolt higher in Italian yields was dramatic, this is really only a sideshow to the real issue: the continued absence of governments capable of reform, and the difficulties

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: More chaos in Italian politics and bond markets Italy’s prime minister-designate Conte has given up on his mandate to form a populist coalition government after talks with President Mattarella collapsed. The likelihood is that fresh elections will need to be held later this year. In response to the news,

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Europe is slowing Recent European data have surprised materially to the downside. For example, German industrial production and retail sales likely shrunk by around 0.9-1% in 1Q, after growing very strongly in 2017. Also, sentiment indicators have fallen sharply off historically high levels. We are not surprised by these

Here’s the chart to lead us off: That’s what a tearaway currency will do to you. Now other components of European boomlet are on the turn, via Westpac: With the benefit of hindsight, we believe that 2017 will be seen as this cycle’s peak year for Euro Area growth. Against the 2.5% year-average outcome for

Via Westpac: ECB President Draghi and the Governing Council were both subtle and direct in March, both with respect to their own economy and evolving global conditions. Beginning first with the Euro Area, having repeatedly revised up their growth expectations, the Governing Council took their first official step towards tightening policy by dropping the reference