Gold buggered?

RBC with the note: We have stuck to our quarterly gold price forecasts based on our view that risk has been more skewed to the downside (under appreciatedly so) for some time, particularly concerning the market’s expectations for the Fed as more economic data is released amid today’s unique market environment and both direct and


The financial (in)stability risk of stablecoins

From JPM comes the understatement of the century: The financial stability risks of stablecoins The financial stability risks of stablecoinsAmong the more interesting and potentially impactful developments of explosive growth in cryptocurrency markets has been the advent and broadening acceptance of stablecoins. As we have noted in prior work, these tokens form the backbone of


Bitcoin breaks neckline of monstrous head-and-shoulders pattern

Still suffering from the crash resulting from its now-notorious four-headed hydra pattern, Bitcoin joined another chartist’s nightmare yesterday, breaking the neckline of its monstrous head and shoulders top: The drover’s dog can tell you that opens up big technical downside. Which is very likely voodoo but all the more apposite for being so. As Hamish


Death by Bitcoin. El Salvador edition

JPM with the note: On June 8, El Salvador approved in congress a law that granted bitcoin status as legal tender, which will be implemented on September 7, assuming as we do the Supreme Court of Justice rejects challenges to constitutionality. We provided a first assessment on the matter after the approval, but as focus


China’s war on Bitcoin “just getting started”

Let me amend that to read “all governments war on crypto just getting started”. Via Sinocism: War on crypto just getting started Caixin Editorial: It’s Time to Declare War on Cryptocurrency The current measures didn’t just appear out of thin air. They are the result of policymakers’ ever-growing understanding of the emerging risks associated with


Nassim Taleb annihilates Shitcoin

This is worth your time. Just in case you’re tempted by the greatest and stoopidest ponzi scheme in history: This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular —as there are about 10, 000 cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most discussed crypto of those


Trump 100% right about Bitcoin scam

More Bitcoin voodoo today. What does it say when Donald Trump becomes the voice of reason? Watch the latest video at He went on to say that it ought to be “highly regulated”. Outlawed is my preference. It’s nothing more than a worthless private currency swindle made on the principles of regulatory arbitrage. Meanwhile,


Bitcoin sound and fury signifying nothing

JPM on BTC sound and fury signifying nothing. Think tulips: Despite tremendous volatility in Cryptocurrencies this week, movements in global markets have been even tamer than this year’s other corrections in January due to meme-stock trading or in February due to a high-vol sell-off in US Rates. A basket of the three largest Cryptos (Bitcoin,


Sell bitcoin and gold

Societe Generale with the note. BTC is a ponzi scheme and should always be sold. Sell gold because US real interest rates are about to bottom as inflation falls: The recent rise in equity indices and commodity prices indicates great progress in putting the COVID-19 crisis behind us. Meanwhile, the vaccine rollout is fuelling expectations


New gold bull market or bear market rally?

Gold has rebounded strongly in recent weeks as the generalised inflation panic has built up a head of steam. It has been particularly helped by the peculiar combination of high US inflation and a weakening DXY, trigger by the recent US jobs report which hinted at stagflation. This has led to a slump in real


Elon Musk may have just saved Bitcoin

Oh, really? Tesla & Bitcoin — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 12, 2021 Cripes, who could have seen that coming? The world’s pin-up boy for renewable transformation backing out of the world’s most environmentally destructive ponzi-scheme. The funny part about it is, Elon Musk has just increased BTC’s chances of survival, and thus marginally decreased


Gold entering bear market. Bitcoin to the moon!

UBS has summed up my view on gold pretty well: We forecast a further weakening of gold (USD 1,600/oz end-2021) and recommend investors manage their gold positions more actively. Investors who hold gold strategically and don’t want to protect against near-term downside can pick up an additional yield by systematically selling the upside potential. Our


Gold price stuffed?

Recent weeks have seen the big gold correction ease off into a little bounce. In these strange days we also need to account for Bitcoin which has likewise flamed out and struggled: The driver of the correction has been higher US real interest rates, a bottoming US dollar and a tearaway Bitcoin which has stolen


RIP gold. Killed by Bitcoin

Some interesting tweets from various financial mavericks overnight on the ongoing gold versus Bitcoin debate. Pater Schiff versus Mark Cuban: Congratulations to those who bought Bitcoin early, pumped up the price, and who’ve been dumping into the hype. You succeeded in getting Wall Street to buy into the mania. When I first learned about #Bitcoin


JPM on why Bitcoin will go to $146k, halve, or both

JPM: The virus crisis, by boosting money supply as well as demand for an “alternative” currency, has supported both gold and bitcoin over the past year. The older cohort preferred gold, while the younger cohorts preferred Bitcoin as an “alternative” currency. Both gold and bitcoin investment vehicles have experienced strong inflows over the past year,


Bitcoin has killed gold (for now)

In a crazy world, the rational is irrational and the irrational rational. That is how I would describe the state of play in the gold versus Bitcoin debate with the latest installment coming from Doubleline doyen Jeffrey Gundlach: I am a long term dollar bear and gold bull but have been neutral on both for


Gold stocks take off as results jump

It’s been a frustrating few months for gold investment. Following the big COVID-19 spike, a falling USD and real interest rates have been unable to sustain the rally, even though these are prime conditions for doing so. DXY: Gold versus TIPS: Doubtless, gold got overvalued. But its recent underperformance is either a signal that the


Silver market fleeces Reddit patsies

Via Societe General: The recent Reddit silver rally was triggered by a post in a Reddit forum thread called WallStreetBets calling for “the biggest short squeeze in the world”. At the time of writing, silver prices have retreated and paused after the initial resulting surge. This note is not intended to offer a prediction of


Bitcoin versus gold versus money

Via GaveKal: “Money is the bubble that never pops”, says angel investor and bitcoin enthusiast, Naval Ravikant. If a “bubble” is defined as a self-reinforcing belief that an asset will retain market value that far exceeds its expected usefulness in consumption, production or generating income, then this is the right way to think about money—and


Bitcoin squeezing out other cryptos as it zooms higher

The number of memes around financial assets – and their cryptozoological Frankenstein cousins – continues to mount as the world’s central bankers unleash as many acronymic “easing” programs they can to arrest the COVID economic depression. HODL was the classic one for Bitcoin, as it crushed under the weight of its first bubble in late