Gold

8

Gold price stuffed?

Recent weeks have seen the big gold correction ease off into a little bounce. In these strange days we also need to account for Bitcoin which has likewise flamed out and struggled: The driver of the correction has been higher US real interest rates, a bottoming US dollar and a tearaway Bitcoin which has stolen

89

RIP gold. Killed by Bitcoin

Some interesting tweets from various financial mavericks overnight on the ongoing gold versus Bitcoin debate. Pater Schiff versus Mark Cuban: Congratulations to those who bought Bitcoin early, pumped up the price, and who’ve been dumping into the hype. You succeeded in getting Wall Street to buy into the mania. When I first learned about #Bitcoin

9

JPM on why Bitcoin will go to $146k, halve, or both

JPM: The virus crisis, by boosting money supply as well as demand for an “alternative” currency, has supported both gold and bitcoin over the past year. The older cohort preferred gold, while the younger cohorts preferred Bitcoin as an “alternative” currency. Both gold and bitcoin investment vehicles have experienced strong inflows over the past year,

98

Bitcoin has killed gold (for now)

In a crazy world, the rational is irrational and the irrational rational. That is how I would describe the state of play in the gold versus Bitcoin debate with the latest installment coming from Doubleline doyen Jeffrey Gundlach: I am a long term dollar bear and gold bull but have been neutral on both for

17

Gold stocks take off as results jump

It’s been a frustrating few months for gold investment. Following the big COVID-19 spike, a falling USD and real interest rates have been unable to sustain the rally, even though these are prime conditions for doing so. DXY: Gold versus TIPS: Doubtless, gold got overvalued. But its recent underperformance is either a signal that the

28

Silver market fleeces Reddit patsies

Via Societe General: The recent Reddit silver rally was triggered by a post in a Reddit forum thread called WallStreetBets calling for “the biggest short squeeze in the world”. At the time of writing, silver prices have retreated and paused after the initial resulting surge. This note is not intended to offer a prediction of

21

Bitcoin versus gold versus money

Via GaveKal: “Money is the bubble that never pops”, says angel investor and bitcoin enthusiast, Naval Ravikant. If a “bubble” is defined as a self-reinforcing belief that an asset will retain market value that far exceeds its expected usefulness in consumption, production or generating income, then this is the right way to think about money—and

7

Bitcoin squeezing out other cryptos as it zooms higher

The number of memes around financial assets – and their cryptozoological Frankenstein cousins – continues to mount as the world’s central bankers unleash as many acronymic “easing” programs they can to arrest the COVID economic depression. HODL was the classic one for Bitcoin, as it crushed under the weight of its first bubble in late

20

ANZ: Stay long gold

Via ANZ: prospects of an imminent coronavirus vaccine, the likelihood of a strong global recovery and a rally in risk assets continues to improve …  could take some shine off from gold’s haven appeal, we don’t think it will scuttle gold’s current rise. in the bull market of 2002–07, when the S&P 500 index rallied

11

Inside Janet Yellen’s head is an enormous dove

From a recent speech by Janet Yellen, incoming US Treasury Secretary: Extreme economic events have often challenged existing views of how the economy works and exposed shortcomings in the collective knowledge of economists. To give two well-known examples, both the Great Depression and the stagflation of the 1970s motivated new ways of thinking about economic

45

What’s killed gold?

This one has really baked my noodle recently: Especially as BTC, “digital gold”,  goes nuts: This became especially weird in the last few days as Janet Yellen was nominated for Treasury Secretary, indicating a rising risk of integration between the Treasury and Fed, a clear gold positive. Yellen says she is not persuaded by MMT

62

Bitcoin heads for infinity

Bitcoin continues to outperform gold in recent price action: However, it still hasn’t broken its recent range: Will it? Today’s BofA fundie survey shows some rising acceptance of BTC: Anything is possible at this juncture. There is no reason why BTC is yoked to gold that I can see. It isn’t a safe haven. It

22

Goldman: Gold to $2300

Gold is the currency of last resort Finally, markets are also growing increasingly concerned about a possible return of inflation now that the initial deflationary shock from the pandemic has passed. Beyond the already massive debt build-ups around the world, we see risks of politically-driven inflationary policies to address rising social needs. Such policies would

35

Is Bitcoin blowing away gold?

Lot’s of excitement over this: As I have noted many times, BTC and gold share an investment narrative insofar as both are seen as hedges against USD debasement. Some have recently been plumping for BTC to overtake gold. Has it? The answer is no and, for what’s it’s worth, I don’t think it will. BTC

8

More BTFD gold

This time RBC: For some time we have been calling out not just the 2020 US presidential election itself as a potential source of uncertainty for gold, but rather that potentially volatile aftermath and uncertainty following it could prove a source of volatility and/or upwards price momentum for gold in our view. In fact, in

33

Digital currencies to end USD reserve?

Via Doubleline: If launched, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), as I have recently warned, will put at risk the independence of monetary policy and what little is left of fiscal discipline within their borders of circulation.1 Central banks are not stopping at the replacement of money as we have known it. In conjunction with their developmental

10

BTFD gold

Via Sprott: The current pullback in the precious metals sector is a buying opportunity. Since trading at a closing high of $2,064 an ounce on August 6, gold bullion has declined 8.34% as of this writing. Gold mining shares have followed suit, declining 9.26% since the August high. It is possible that gold and related

26

What next for the gold price?

Via Credit Agricole:  After correcting lower towards the end of September, precious metals such as gold have been stabilising with our outlook being for gradual upside in the coming few quarters. While we expect gold to end the year closer to 1940 (USD/oz), the yellow metal should advance well above 2000 in the years

26

When to the buy the gold dip

Via ANZ: If global growth concerns continue to push up the USD, like we have seen this week, we could see some near-term headwinds for the precious metal Importantly though, if U.S. growth concerns result in significant policy adjustments by the Fed to help the economy, such as negative interest rates or even monetary financing,

7

Australian dollar and gold bashed

DXY roared back last night: The Australian dollar was bashed: Gold was creamed: WTI is bid by a robot: Metals did OK: Miners not: Nor EM stocks: Or junk: Yields lifted: And stocks fell: The culprit was Fed minutes which simply weren’t dovish enough: Participants observed that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remained very elevated, with

14

Gold BTFD

Via Goldman: Momentum-based trading systems have been popular for decades, given their low correlation with traditional benchmark returns and, therefore, their potential for generating alpha. The strategies tend to have common components, including set rules for entering and exiting positions. Although there are a variety of methods employed to produce a trade signal, many rely

59

“Elon Musk is going to destroy gold”

Thoughts @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/w4a4Mjs0Cy — Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) August 13, 2020 Lol. This is what investment has become. A couple of wankers making shit up to promote a worthless uncurrency with stunning regulatory risk. Gold is “boomer”, apparently. One should always be wary of becoming set in one’s ways but come on.

9

More gold bullishness

Via Bloomie: With no imminent end to collapsing real yields – which just hit a new record low -1.10%, the side effects of financial repression warn of stagflation, asset bubbles and policy impotence. Fresh lows for U.S. 10-year real yields this week show a trap door opened by growing economic angst, climbing inflation expectations and

10

Plenty of fuel left in the gold rocket tank

A couple of charts today make the point. Real interest rates have room to fall further: Gold ETF flows are still very small:   AUM proportions dedicated to gold are still WAY down versus previous peaks: Probably the best chart of all, DXY is still very high: The lows of the GFC period are 24%