The Australian Budget has a history of running small deficits and surpluses with occasional blowouts. Contemporary history has seen General Government net debt to GDP approach 20% under Labor in 1995 and the Coalition in 2017. In between, a Coalition government under Prime Minister John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello ran surpluses sufficient to pay net debt down to zero during Australia’s mining boom.
Ratings agencies have adjusted the sovereign credit rating over time to reflect this ebbing and flowing of debt. In 1975, Standard and Poors rated Australia AAA. By 1989 the rating had dropped two notches to AA. It was subsequently upgraded again to AAA as the Howard Government operated consecutive surpluses.
The major vulnerability for the Australian Budget is the external imbalance in an economy that runs persistent current account deficits. Because Australian banks borrow so much money in international markets largely to fund domestic mortgages they are constantly at risk of international liquidity shocks.
The Australian Budget steps in with public guarantees to the banking system when this happens. Thus, although the Australian Budget has relatively low debt-to-GDP metrics, credit rating agencies demand that they remain that way to preserve the AAA rating as a backstop to bank borrowing.
Australian politics insists that Australia sustain budget surpluses ostensibly because it is equated with good economic management. In truth, the surplus is simply a figment of the property bubble at the heart of the Australian economy that requires the support of the tax-payer to persist. The Australian Budget is the key stone in the Australian credit arch.
In recent years the Australian Budget has deteriorated as the structure of the economy has left is denuded of growth sources. As the mining booms passed and the enormous household debt (186% of GDP) stalled consumption and investment, fiscal deficits became a key component in GDP growth.
As well, the disintegration of Australian political integrity associated with the end of the mining boom period doomed the Budget to successive regimes of neglect.
This very obviously undermined its role in the above system exposing Australia to deeper adjustments during future periods of global stress.
MacroBusiness covers all apposite data and wider analysis of these issues daily.
When it comes to cruelty against the unemployed, it’s hard to top the Morrison Government. Listen to lousy ScoMo today on a Newstart rise: “The government has no plans to do that,” he said. “We will continue to increase Newstart every six months as has always been the practice. “More importantly, for those who are
Via Domain: Billions of dollars of congestion-easing infrastructure projects that could boost the economy and increase safety are stuck years down the track as the Reserve Bank of Australia calls on the Morrison government to do more. As Prime Minister Scott Morrison promises to pull forward some infrastructure projects, an analysis of the federal budget
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Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the federal government will change the deeming rate for pensioners by the end of 2019, and that over 25 per cent of pension recipients will be better off as a result. Shadow social services minister Linda Burney says a change in the deeming rate is urgently needed, and that cutting it
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Via Domain comes some “exclusive” fake news: More than two thirds of the final stage of the Coalition’s $158 billion income tax cut package will flow to workers earning under $180,000, new figures show, as the Morrison government moves within striking distance of its first policy victory since the election. The Coalition has refused to hand over costings
From The ABC comes news that the Big Four Australian banks have axed thousands of jobs, with automation to cause further job losses: Banks are thousands of staff off peak levels… In 2008, the Commonwealth Bank employed 39,621 full-time equivalent employees, a number that rose to 46,000 four years ago, before falling back to 43,771
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Great excitement at COMMSEC: Engineering: Engineering construction work done fell for the third straight quarter, easing by 4.9 per cent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in the March quarter. And work done is down 13.5 per cent on a year ago. Infrastructure boom: Excluding the resource sector (coal, oil, pipelines etc.) work yet to be
John Hearsch, president of rail advocacy organisation Rail Futures, believes Sydney’s second airport at Badgerys Creek could once and for all kill the proposal to build a high speed rail (HSR) line linking the major East Coast capitals. From News.com.au: “In my view, the decision to go ahead with Badgerys Creek Airport has, in practical
From Richard Denniss at the AFR: Imagine if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) conducted monetary policy the way the Morrison government conducted fiscal policy. Step one: publish optimistic forecasts of GDP and wage growth to create “confidence”. Step two: set interest rates five years down the track, based on those optimistic forecasts. Step three:
So says the RBA: Dr Lowe also said major infrastructure funding should be run like monetary policy – at arm’s length from the government – so that voters trust it is fit for purpose. “If we don’t get it right then the public doesn’t trust the politicians,” he said at the Crawford leadership forum in Canberra
By Leith van Onselen The NSW Office of State Revenue has released stamp duty data to May, which reveals a massive $1.6 billion (23%) decline over the past year and a $2.1 billion (29%) decline since stamp duty receipts peaked in October 2017: The latest retracement in stamp duty receipts follows a sharp 22% decline
Via Albo: What we have determined this morning to do is to propose a negotiating position to the Government which would bring forward tax cuts faster for those who need it and importantly those who will spend it to stimulate demand in the economy.” We have determined the following position: Stage one – of course,
