Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks across the region had a less than mild response to the stonking NFP print on Friday night, with gains only half that of their northern hemisphere brothers. This was due to the latest Chinese export figures which disappointed, and strong Yen and Aussie dollar to the USD. The Shanghai Composite only 2 points higher,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw the big event on the calendar – the latest US unemployment figures via the non-farm payrolls (NFP) – which set the tone for the rest of the month and indeed year for risk taking. The release easily beat expectations, driving the unemployment rate down and sending risk markets higher

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are moving slightly higher across Asia desptie the scratch sessions on Wall Street overnight as a new round of optimism for the US/China trade quagmire gathers pace, just before the all important non-farm payroll/unemployment print later tonight. The Shanghai Composite is hovering just on the 2900 point level with little change going into the

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Stocks climb to highest valuation since Dot Bomb

Via Saxo: Summary: Equities continue to rally although the first week of December has been more choppy due to mixed trade headlines from the US and China. Overall, US equity valuations have hit dangerous levels for long-term investors and the recent Swedish Services PMI figures are highlighting emerging spillover effects from manufacturing into the services sector

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A mixed night on risk markets with the positive sentiment fading goign into the weekend, as no news on a US/China trade deal is construed as bad news. Wall Street ended with a scratch session while European bourses retreated slightly in the wake of flagging retail sales numbers. The USD was weaker

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are advancing across Asia in the wake of optimism that a trade deal between US and China can be struck before the December 15 tariffs kick in, with the ASX up over 1% while the USD treads water against most of the majors. The Shanghai Composite has lifted nearly 0.7% and looks set to

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A big reversal in sentiment overnight as stock markets reacted positively to the speculation that the December 15 US/China tariffs may be avoided with a secure trade deal. The USD sold off as a result, alongside bonds, as oil prices also spiked more than 3% as the latest US ISM Services print

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Macro Afternoon

Another rough day here on Asian stock markets with some fluctuation in USD weakness as the upcoming December 15 China tariffs are seeming to firm. A big spike in the offshore Yuan – up to a month high 7.07 level – plus a firmer Yen is keeping risk taking at bay, although European futures are

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ASX smashed

Not much fun for Aussie assets today. The Australian dollar has come off a little from its Lunatic RBA spike: Bonds too: XJO is getting creamed, down another 1.7% after 2% yesterday: And sporting a potential major double top pattern: Dalian has a mind of its own as Vale worries: Big Iron ore is thumped

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Again, markets are in the thrall of a US President’s comments, with Trump threatening tariffs against France – while in France and celebrating 70 years of the NATO Alliance – and conceding that the US/China trade deal may not go through until the election. US stocks markets flopped as a result with

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed day across Asian stock markets with the slump on Wall Street overnight reflected across most bourses except Chinese, which bucked the trend. The RBA decision to hold was the highlight of the day, as the Aussie dollar reached a new high beforehand as the USD weakened, the realisation that no more cuts sent

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Last night saw a big risk inversion on trade concerns as the Twit in Chief rolled out new steel tariffs and blamed the Fed and high USD, just as the latest ISM Manufacturing print came in with a surprise fall and contraction, particularly in employment. The USD tanked as a result, sending

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets have started the week on a strong note despite the slump on Wall Street on Friday night, namely because of the weaker Yen sending Japanese stocks higher and a firm Chinese PMI print. The USD has weakened against Aussie and Kiwi which have gapped higher on the usual Monday morning open while

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The longs and short of the stock market “boom”

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: 1.       We have a modest ASX 200 target of 7000. At an aggregate level, income, rather than capital growth will likely be the driver of returns. 2.       We see earnings recovery, but multiple compression. IBES Consensus numbers point to roughly 6% earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw the return of US traders to their desks and waited for any news about the ongoing US/China trade negotiations, with a mild risk-off session the result. Wall Street didn’t make a new record high – shock and horror – while bond yields fell as markets price in a near

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets have gone into risk off mode going into the weekend, despite the Black Friday retail orgy but mainly due to lack of direction from closed a Wall Street. A speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda has rattled a bit of confidence in Japan and elsewhere as he states “fiscal and monetary policy is

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US markets were closed for thanksgiving overnight, leaving other risk markets to their own devices as the Chinese reaction to continued pressure on their oppression in Hong Kong made a small impression. A lack of further economic releases of any import keep risk aversion contained to a slight dip in European stocks

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How far the great stock blowoff?

Readers will know that we are not a believer in the global recovery narrative driving the great stock blowoff. It is impressive nonetheless as down days all but disappear: Daily price swings too: Not to menton the death of vol: As America First leaves the world well and truly behind: Thanks to buybacks: And cyclicals:

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are quite mixed across the region with local shares buoyed by Westpac’s call for two more rate cuts by the beleagured RBA, which sent the Aussie dollar down, while Chinese stocks continued their pullback as the Yuan fix hovered around the 7 handle. No news on the US/China trade deal is good

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight risk markets took a step back as the USD cooled on its strengthening trend against the major undollar assets, with gold moving higher alongside Euro and Yen. Wall Street advanced only slightly while European markets slipped and it looks like a cool day of risk taking here in Asia. Looking at

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Macro Afternoon

A solid session for most Asian stock markets although this hasn’t translated into a full risk on response from S&P and Eurostoxx futures as currencies were unable to move in their risk proxy directions as usual, Yen in particular. The gold price and Yuan fix stayed steady while Bitcoin attempted but failed to breakout of

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Goldman: Stocks to the moon in 2020….or not

Via Goldman: P/E hovers around the current level of 18.0x for most of next year before rising to 18.6x following the election as uncertainty falls: …a unified federal government post-election could prompt investors to assume the tax cut is reversed and lower projected 2020 EPS to $162 (-7% year/year growth), compressing the P/E multiple to

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A big surge on overnight markets with US stocks making new record highs in the wake of fresh optimism surrounding the US/China trade deal and the run up to the Black Friday retail orgy. Tech stocks led the way while European bourses also had a solid night with more ECB wonkery explaining

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Macro Afternoon

Weekend news of a possible resolution or movement of some kind in the US/China trade talks although the IMF is right to say this might be just domestic politics posturing as one country tries to stabilise internal struggle while the other tries to kick out a corrupt autocrat. Does it matter which? Gold fell again

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Crushing Hong Kong will end Chinese globalisation

Via Epoch Times: Elements of the immediate and long-term aftermath of a Hong Kong massacre may include the following catastrophic results for the CCP: The destruction of Hong Kong’s reputation as a safe and free haven for business. The “Hong Kong miracle” will become tarnished with a loss of foreign investment and tourism. Killing the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US all the way on Friday night with Treasuries, the USD Index and Wall Street all advancing in tandem on the back of (spurious) claims by Trump that the US/China trade talks are advancing well – even though he later contradicted that in a Fox news rant. In Europe, new ECB President

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Macro Afternoon

Another generally mixed day in Asian risk taking given the poor performance on Wall Street overnight as the stronger USD weighs on markets. Chinese stocks are really struggling here, with the Shanghai Composite down nearly 0.6% to be well below 2900 points although the Hang Seng Index has found a modicum of buying support, currently

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The USD re-asserted itself overnight as stock markets stumbled surrounding the continued lack of good news emanating from US/China trade talks, with Wall Street putting in minor losses. Oil rallied although this didn’t help commodity currencies as the Canadian Loonie dropped on domestic comments, dragging the Aussie and other proxies with it.