Australian Shares

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment in overnight markets remained cautious, with interest rates falling again, pulling the USD down while lifting gold to another new record high. With no new economic events to go on or news catalysts, it was a relatively dull session! Looking at yesterday’s action in Asia first, with Chinese share markets almost unchanged

48

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are literally treading water while currencies are the only movers as traders try to find their feet at the start of the trading week. There was a  fly in the ointment for Aussie short sellers – the RBA – as Governor Lowe’s speech put a little boost under the beleaguered currency. Chinese share

4

RBA recommends you buy shares

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The RBA has just released a paper about the history of the Australian equities. It contains some very useful and unique historical data on the Australian market. For context, earnings, dividends and total returns data for the Australian market has been quite sparse, and of questionable quality going back in

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are on edge with tensions in the Gulf over Iran and trigger finger Trump, overshadowing the poor manufacturing PMI prints on both sides of the Atlantic. Wall Street had a lucklustre session as interest rates remained depressed, as 10 year Treasury yields remained just over the 2% level. The economic calendar starts

62

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are loving the possibility of the end of the US/China trade squabbles and the hope of more stimulus down a multitude of pipelines stretching from Europe, the US and China and back again. Chinese share markets have seen the biggest gains, with the Shanghai Composite up exactly 1.5% and breaking the 2900 point barrier, currently

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A big night on risk markets with stocks breaking out of their funk on Wall Street, helped along by the notion that Trump maybe visiting the Chinese Premier next week. This lifted commodities across the board and their proxies, including the beleagured Australian dollar, while dovish comments from Super Mario saw interest

63

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets continue their mixed start to the trading week as risk markets continue to wait the latest from the tanker attacks in the Gulf and the upcoming FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. The PBOC is basically holding steady with its firm hold on the Yuan while the RBA released its latest minutes which sent

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stocks pushed slightly higher on Wall Street overnight, following a mixed session in Europe where risk markets remain poised before tomorrow nights FOMC Meeting. Interestingly, the Fed Business Index fell sharply last night to a 2 year plus low, with consumer and household sentiment figures also dropped, putting more pressure on the

53

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have started the week on a mixed note, continuing the confused Friday session as risk markets await the latest from the tanker attacks in the Gulf and the upcoming FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. Chinese share markets rebounded following their poor showing on Friday with the Shanghai Composite lifting nearly 0.3%, almost back above

5

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night on Wall Street was a mixed bag with strong retail figures pushing the USD and interest rates up, with revisions on previous months also lifted, giving watchers less hope that the Fed will pull down interest rates sooner if the US consumer is still strong. Oil prices blipped higher on

138

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have finished the week on a mixed note with Chinese bourses falling in the wake of weaker industrial production growth numbers while gold has spiked to a new monthly high despite a much stronger USD. Chinese share markets were the main casualties again today with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 1% to get

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A relatively quiet night on markets with stocks and other risk assets rising slightly, while Treasury yields fell as the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates rose. In the UK, the first round of voting on the new Tory leader resulted in Boris Johnson in the front, which confirms more chaos

95

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets responded in kind to the poor mood on Wall Street overnight with the focus on rising tensions in Hong Kong and global trade concerns to blame. Locally the unemployment rate ticked higher leading to a fall in the Australian dollar while the PBOC kept the Yuan largely unchanged. Chinese share markets diverged today

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A lot of ructions overnight, first being Trump putting his foot in his mouth again over German sanctions, sending Euro lower, while increased tensions over trade with China saw confidence evaporate on Wall Street. The USD is firmer across the board despite a weaker than expected CPI print overnight, while oil prices

50

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are in a cautious mood today given the political activity in Hong Kong but also the continued fallout from Brexit. With the Chinese CPI print coming in strong as expected the PBOC kept the Yuan largely unchanged while locally, consumer confidence slipped but this hasn’t stopped the ASX200 make another new high as iron

6

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  No news was good news for risk markets last night as European stocks advanced while Wall Street had a breather. All the action was in the bond markets with Treasuries all over the place as traders continue to place bets on the magnitude and frequency of the next rate cuts by the

85

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are stronger across the board as easing tensions over trade negotiations are being reflected in rising risk sentiment. The Yuan was set a little stronger today instead of the usual weakening trend while a much higher NAB business confidence print and catch up playing saw local stocks hit a near record high. Chinese share

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The risk market complex started the week in fine form as backstops from the world’s central banks continue to inflate stocks in particular. Wall Street glided along on the Fed put and better relations with Mexico due to the tariff cancellations, with the USD firming slightly against the other major currencies. The

13

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are starting the week with a fresh bounce in the wake of Wall Street’s rally post-NFP print, with the Federal Reserve likely to support risk assets one more time. The Yuan is weakening again as Chinese authorities manipulate the currency as the trade war goes on, with the USDCNH offshore pair moving closer

9

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The May US non farm payroll was one of the weakest job prints since the GFC, which of course meant that Wall Street rallied as this structural problem will result in lower rates by the Fed. The USD fell to a two month low against almost everything, with Euro breaking out of

55

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are set to finish the week on a better mood with small rises across the region. There has been some movement in offshore Yuan trading today despite the Middle Kingdom having a trading holiday with the PBOC governor indicating lots more room to move on any further deterioration in the trade war with

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment overnight was somewhat mixed but still positive as US stocks advanced alongside interest rates while oversold oil bounced back 2% as the USD finished lower. This is on the back of potential delays in the US-Mexico tariff deadline while in Europe, the ECB extended its hold status, but nevertheless remains

53

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are again mixed despite a positive mood on Wall Street overnight with only local stocks on the ASX200 lifting today. Concern over the US/Mexico trade spat and more Federal Reserve cuts is keeping currency markets on their toes with tonight’s ECB meeting the key focus on the calendar. The Shanghai Composite is

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A slump in hiring conditions in the US saw stocks improve and a possible retraction of tariffs against Mexico lifted USD against all the majors overnight. Oil prices slumped nearly 3% as long positions continued to be abandoned in the wake of decade high petrol stockpiles in the US. Yesterday saw Asian stock markets

90

Macro Afternoon

In response to the surge on Wall Street overnight, Asian share markets have the main echoed the returns with mainland Chinese stocks the only fly in the ointment. The local GDP print saw Aussie stocks taper off throughout the session, while the Australian dollar remains stubbornly below the 70 handle. The Shanghai Composite remains unable

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Wall Street rebounded fiercely overnight on the back of the Powell Put with lower rates definitely on the agenda for the Fed in 2019. EZ inflation pulled back in May while commodity prices remained under pressure despite a much lower USD. It should be a solid risk on day here in Asia

41

Macro Afternoon

While all local eyes were on the RBA, which made its first move in interest rates in three years, the region was focused on macro issues particularly trade with all the action in bond markets as traders remain jittery. The USD is still weak after the recent reversal with the Yuan fix remaining steady, the

8

What stocks to buy for new rate cut cycle

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: We have just published our latest thoughts on global style rotation and its implications for Australian stocks. The US yield curve has meaningfully inverted. 80% of the time, this foreshadows a recession around the corner. Mechanically, it means that investors are starting to price in rate cuts. Our US

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Wall Street was all over the place last night after European markets improved following a dour start to the week here in Asia. Tech stocks dragged the NASDAQ down significantly as regulatory issues surrounded the sector, while most industrials slipped on ongoing trade concerns as Tariff Trump had tea with the Queen.