The rumblings of fear are being heard across equity markets here in Asia with more safe haven buying in gold and bonds pushing stocks down across the region. Offshore Yuan is trading another handle higher at over 7.04 while the Aussie dollar has been pummeled to an 11 year low and briefly touched the 65
From Moargan Stanley today: Investors largely shrugged off the factor rotation on Feb 4th as an isolated event, but it shouldn’t be dismissed – higher factor volatility is structural and is here to stay. Funds are taking bigger factor bets, positioning is crowded, leverage is high, and factor correlations are getting more unstable – all of which
By Chris Becker Stock markets seem to be rising and falling in line with the pace of the coronavirus, falling again last night as the number of external fatalities rose, prompting more bond and USD buying and a reversal of the previous night’s stock gains. Gold continues to lift ever higher, although Yen is selling
The main takeaway in Asia is more stimulus planned by China, including another weakening of Yuan, now trading well above the 7.02 level in offshore trading with most stocks putting in positive sessions: The Shanghai Composite looks set to close about 1.5% higher, soaring past the 3000 point barrier as it continues its turnaround, while
Via Goldman today comes a statement of the obvious: Despite posting unusually strong returns in 2019, the equity bull market continues; investors have largely shrugged off the potential economic and earnings hit from the coronavirus. The relentless rise in equities is largely a function of lower bond yields and the hope that the current disruption
By Chris Becker US stock markets followed the positive mood generated in Asia then enhanced in Europe, with the S&P500 again hitting another record high as the release of the latest FOMC minutes gave a “steady as she goes” signal. The deceleration in new cases of coronaviruses on top of continued stimulus plans announced from
It’s been a bounceback day here in Asia for stock markets at least, as fear swings back to hope, helped by the Chinese propaganda surrounding growth prospects viz. coronavirus, while the ratings agencies continue to downgrade 1Q 2020 growth across the region. The true arbiter is gold, which continues to climb above $1600USD per ounce,
By Chris Becker US stock markets returned from their long weekend and went on the defensive straight away, absorbing the Apple guidance cut with some mild falls on Wall Street after European bourses fell in response to a rout in Asia. The USD is up against all the majors – save gold which has zoomed
Its a risk off mood here in Asia today with the fallout from the Apple revenue guidance striking a little bit of fear in stock markets. The release of the RBA minutes sent the Aussie dollar down, while gold and Yen advanced on the safe haven bid. The Shanghai Composite is stumbling around after its
By Chris Becker Risk markets traded thinly overnight due to the closure of Wall Street for a holiday, although stocks on both sides of the Atlantic did inch up slightly. While the USD Index was unchanged, mainly due to a flat lining Euro, commodity currencies like the Aussie and Loonie slipped despite a small lift
Just out: Our quarterly guidance issued on January 28, 2020 reflected the best information available at the time as well as our best estimates about the pace of return to work following the end of the extended Chinese New Year holiday on February 10. Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are
Today’s session in Asia was marked (sic) with a lot of markdowns to GDP growth across the region in the wake of the coronavirus, with Japanese and Australian economies expected to feel the brunt the most in the first quarter. Asian stocks however are quite mixed with Chinese markets rallying on potential stimulus from the
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Globally, equities have very much been a momentum and quality story in early 2020. Value factors have badly underperformed, having bounced hard in late 2019. We have seen a very sharp risk-off rotation in alpha terms, even as the market has gained. Having said this, the momentum
By Chris Becker Friday night saw risk markets wobble slightly as the latest US industrial production numbers fall slightly while inflation expectations also pared back, although retail sales were upbeat as expected. Treasury yields fell slightly and are still signalling almost no change for the Fed come March, while the USD continued its flex against
A mixed day here in Asia with some stock markets following Wall Street down, some advancing particularly in China and its Australian satellite. Currency markets are equally quiet with gold almost unchanged with the major investment houses still wracking their brains over what to do with Chinese GDP expectations in the wake of the coronavirus
By Chris Becker Risk markets continue to be rattled by fear over the coronavirus with the big jump in Chinese cases sending Wall Street send slightly overnight which should provide a minor headwind to end the risk taking here in Asia going into the weekend. Euro continued its post Brexit plunge with a near three
A spike in new cases of coronavirus shook markets up a bit here in Asia today depsite the good run on Wall Street overnight. Gold and other safe havens have lifted, with Bitcoin accelerating after its recent breach above the $10K mark. The Shanghai Composite is down the most, off by 0.6% after the long
The return of Japanese traders and a still upbeat Wall Street saw most Asian stock markets advance, with the major macro event being the RBNZ holding their cash rate and the New Hampshire primary in the USA. Gold is slipping while Bitcoin breached $10K again, with Yen buying moderating and helping buoy the re-opening of
Profit warning! After the downgrade, trading on 60x PE. This is Australia. In equal parts massively overvalued and overexposed to the Chinese shutdown. If Blackmores is right, and it takes three months to resume any kind of normalcy in China (let alone longer), then Australia will be sunk into deep recession mid-year as an income
It’s all engines ahead for risk as Chinese shares breakout, pushed along by a higher Aussie dollar and lower Yen as risk appetite comes back again here in Asia. Other safe havens like gold and Bitcoin are slipping while Japanese markets are closed for yet another holiday. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.5% after the
Transurban continues to feast on the ‘Big Australia’ mass immigration policy, delivering more strong growth on its toll road network: Transurban’s half-year profit rose by 11 per cent amid higher traffic on its toll roads in Australia… Net profit totalled $162m in the six months through December, rising from $145m a year ago. Proportional earnings
Over the years I’ve had some time for David Rosenberg but have also learned that he is sometimes too bearish. Not today: No one really knows how far up the top is, but what happens after the top does not fit into very many people’s risk tolerance. In the meantime, another year of double-digit returns on
By Chris Becker Risk markets are oscillating between hope and fear with a swing to the former overnight on Wall Street overshadowing the fear in Asia yesterday. Commodities and undollar assets continued to fall however, with oil falling 2% to a new weekly low with only gold holding fast. Looking at Asian share markets performance
Risk markets are slipping again, with Asia reacting to the falls on Wall Street from Friday night in a similar direction and magnitude. Fear about the economic impact of the coronavirus continues to spread with safe havens like Yen, gold and even Bitcoin – now above $10,000USD – pulling risk assets down in the main.
Hoocoodanode? The Australian dollar is trading right at the breakdown line: Bonds are bid: XJO is absurdly high for the virus context: Big Iron is beginning to come apart. I’ll take that FMG blowoff day a few weeks ago straight to the pool room: Big Gas free fall: Big Gold is bizarrely unpopulsr: Folks prefer
By Chris Becker Risk sentiment continues to be all over the place with Wall Street falling on Friday night, despite a strong US jobs report that saw over 225K jobs added in January, although of course average earnings remain anemic. The market responded with a higher USD, lower bond yields as the 10 year Treasury
Asian share markets have moderated their recent gains with gold and Bitcoin the only undollar assets to advance. Moody’s and Fitch spoiled the party with a negative reaction to the Aussie economy, particularly the banks on the coronavirus impact as Chinese authorities try to damp down the growing outrage surrounding the government’s response to the
By Chris Becker Risk sentiment is now back to its pre-coronavirus levels, with Wall Street putting in new record highs and USD strengthening against almost everything, paving the way for further optimism. Notably, gold and Bitcoin are coming back too with the latter almost breaching the $10,000 level. Treasury yields remain slightly elevated as the
Its risk on across Asia as stock markets gather pace with big moves higher across the board, as undollar assets and safe havens are sold off. The bounce in oil prices is seeing commodity currencies like the Aussie dollar lift slightly, while gold is just holding to daily support as all risk goes into stocks
By Chris Becker Risk sentiment is improving everywhere with European and US stocks lifting strongly overnight, helped along by a very firm services ISM release in the US that smacked down all undollar assets. Oil prices finally lifted off the mat in the wake of probable OPEC production cuts due to the coronavirus, as other
