Australian Shares

9

Afterpay bubble bursts

Another lesson for the Millennial bubblistas out there. We’ve been warning of this tech bubble and bust for quite a while. Now it is here. On the ASX, it was most focussed in “buy now, pay later stocks” led by Afterpay. That bubble is bursting: What’s APT actually worth? Ask UBS: Another very strong result.

0

Macro Morning

Stocks were all over the place last night with Wall Street diverging sharply as the tech bubble continues to deflate, while industrials were bid higher alongside a big surge in European stock markets. This follows a big selloff in Chinese shares but a lift in local markets – the correlations are all over the place!

103

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets continue to fall despite the solid run on Wall Street on Friday night as the US unemployment print signalled good times ahead for the US economy. The USD continues to firm against everything, although Bitcoin gapped above the $50K level this morning and is having a stab at breaking through its previous

0

Macro Morning

Friday night saw the release of the monthly US jobs figures – aka nonfarm payrolls – that sets the tone for risk sentiment for the rest of the month. A stonking result with a revised upward previous figure sent Wall Street higher and out of its funk with a near 2% gain across the board.

6

The tech crash ain’t over

Friday night witnessed a big bounce in technology stocks. The Nasdaq jumped 1.55%. It seems risk is back for growth and technology stocks. Or is it? I can see this perfect head-and-shoulders top dropping 30% from here. Why? The harpoon that has pricked the technology bubble is rising yields as markets fret about inflation. Growth

230

Macro Afternoon

Another sea of red for Asian stocks going into the end of the trading week but at least its not a bath of blood like that found on Wall Street at the moment, with minor retracements and some buying support evident. Bitcoin however can’t find any more buyers to shore up the recent rout, with

4

Macro Morning

Sour risk sentiment seems to be gravitating along Wall Street again with another 2% drop across the main bourses overnight, as the fallout from the selloff on the bond market continued. Ten year Treasury yields popped through the 1.5% level with Fed Chair Powell disappointing the market with his recent comments as the USD soared

133

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are swimming in a sea of red today due to the growing lack of confidence on Wall Street overnight, as risk sentiment reverses yet again as bond markets continue their own selloff.  Bitcoin found a lot of sellers this afternoon after building up and beyond the $50K level with last week’s intrasession resistance

2

Macro Morning

Another reverse in risk sentiment overnight with Wall Street properly falling led by tech stocks this time as the bond market continues its selloff. A possible catalyst was a poor US private employment print but also the latest ISM services PMI didn’t excite, reducing expectations. The USD came back against most of the majors, with

156

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are pushing higher today despite the stumble on Wall Street overnight, as risk sentiment reverses yet again despite a temporary reprieve on bond markets and a slightly weaker USD.  Bitcoin is building up again after its previous weak start to the trading week, again pushing back toward the $50K level with last week’s

6

How do equities go amid inflation?

GaveKal asks the quadrillion dollar question today. How do stock markets perform in inflationary environments? Despite a roiling US bond market sell-off, equity investors had until Thursday taken comfort from the Federal Reserve saying it will stay easy for longer and, hey, what’s not to like about a “little” inflation? The idea of this paper

5

Macro Morning

The USD reversed course overnight, with Euro in particularly shooting higher on the back of firm EZ wide inflation figures, although German retail sales disappointed. Wall Street got the stumbles and stalls though as Treasury yields were ranged bound overnight. Commodities were mixed with copper rising nearly 3% while oil came off slightly again as

121

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have tried to follow the rebound from overnight markets, but have failed across the region, with this relief rally seemingly short lived. The March RBA meeting resulted in no change with the Aussie still depressed following its big reversal last week as other major currencies remain under the thumb of a stronger USD

1

Macro Morning

Shares have bounced back from their volatile end of week shock following the bond market implosion, but the same can’t be said for currencies or indeed bonds, with Treasury yields lifting again overnight.  Very strong US economic data is keeping the USD high, with the latest ISM manufacturing report the best in four years while

87

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have rebounded sharply across the region, starting the week on a more positive tone compared to the carnage on bond and currency markets at the end of last week, with the falls on Wall Street seemingly contained already as S&P futures bounceback in kind. Bitcoin has started the week meakly as expecting, opening

0

Macro Morning

The bond market implosion is having broader impacts, particularly on currency markets as a run to safety to the USD on Friday night saw major currencies plummet in value, taking some stock markets with them.  Treasury yields actually pulled back some in the wake of a very solid US PCE report but the Australian dollar

252

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have fallen sharply across the region, in a correlated response to the big reversal on Wall Street overnight as the bond market flipped out. Bitcoin is falling after being range traded the last couple of days, now breaking towards the $47K level with the four hourly chart showing the next support level at

3

Macro Morning

The real action on overnight markets is not Gamestop shares or Bitcoin, but the international bond market, which spiked yet again as a weak Treasury auction overshadowed solid US economic news. Yields increased dramatically across the curve, with the bond selloff spilling over to Wall Street with 2-3% falls as shaky confidence previously soothed by

36

Taper tantrum 2.0 begins as markets catch hysteria virus

What a business cycle this is. Juiced by virus amphetamines it is moving extraordinarily fast. Last year we had the crash down, the crash up, a depression, thumping stimulus and K-shaped recovery, a gold boom and bust on debasement, growth stock bubble and now bust plus value rotation, an alleged commodity super-cycle, and now, one

157

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have rebounded firmly across the region, in a correlated response to the bounce (aka BTFD) on Wall Street overnight as central bankers soothed nerves. Bitcoin is relatively stable, trading in a tight trading range again, currently hovering just above the $50K level with the four hourly chart showing the key $48 and $51

6

Macro Morning

Wall Street’s nerves were calmed, soothed and appeased by the Fed last night as Chair Powell patted and stroked the risk complex as it purred along nicely again.  The Treasury bond market saw another blip higher in 10 year yields, while the USD was largely unchanged, several currencies did make new highs – especially the

92

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have fallen sharply across the region, responding to the poor lead from Wall Street and then the wafer thin assurances from the Fed overnight, as S&P futures tumble amid some really fragile risk sentiment. Bitcoin is having yet another interesting 24 hours, getting back to the $50K level with a modest 10% gain

1

Credit Suisse upgrade profits boom

Via Credit Suisse, now aligned with Goldman uber-bulls: Raising S&P 500 Target to 4300 on Earnings Upside and Reopening Prospects We are raising our 2021 S&P 500 price target to 4300 from 4200, representing10.9% upside from current levels, and 14.5% for the year. This follows an increase from 4050 on January 7 (seeS&P 500 to

0

Macro Morning

Wall Street is getting quite nervous, having suffered five straight days of declines in a row and was all set to completely rollover last night, but some calming words from the Fed chair abated that decline at the last minute. This is all due to the ructions on bond markets as yields continue to spike,

17

The tech bust is here

Two investing legends – Ray Dalio and Jeremy Grantham – have recently put different cases for why parts of the technology component of stock markets are in a bubble vulnerable to steep correction. Grantham argued that the extreme valuations in growth stocks and the pervasiveness of crazy behaviour were dead giveaways that a bust was

97

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are rising despite the poor lead from Wall Street overnight, as oil prices rise to new highs and bond yields continue to spike with S&P futures looking to claw back last night’s losses. Bitcoin is having a grand 24 hours after the Musk man pushed the whole edifice over, its now back at