Outside local stocks its been a solid session throughout Asia for risk markets, but US futures are pulling back as all eyes are on the US Congress passing the stimulus bill. USD is losing ground against the major currency pairs, although gold remains steady, the Aussie dollar is now above 61 cents. The Shanghai Composite
The AUD is still running hot: Bonds are bid: But the ASX is sagging: Dalian is stable: Big Iron down: Big Gas up too much versus oil: Big Gold is big shite: Big Banks have rolled: Big Realty is still lovin’ zero income: Where this market goes next is anybody’s guess.
By Chris Becker Stimulus packages are pumping air into the carcass that is the dead cat like a bagpipe, with Wall Street rallying on hopes that the cheques from Congress will save the next quarterly earnings bell. The fact that initial jobless claims came in at over 3 million was swept under the rug, as
A very mixed day here in Asia with most stock markets in retreat mode after what was a stellar start to the Trading Week. The US Congress is set to pass the Senate’s stimulus package on Friday, as traders and indeed everyone watches the growing death toll and case load of COVID-19 let loose in
The Australian dollar is down further this morning: Bonds are well bid again: XJO is up a bit more: Big Iron is hilariously undiscounted for what’s ahead: Big Gas is better: Big Gold is crap still: Big Banks are trying but not getting far: Big Realty should be at zero because that’s where its revenue
By Chris Becker The dead cat is now in hover mode as Wall Street was unable to translate epic gains in Asia then Europe into anything substantial, with the NASDAQ actually retreating slightly despite the substantial stimulus packaged passed by Congress. While the USD retreated slightly against the majors, gold suffered a small pullback after
A sea of green across Asian stock markets today following the surge on Wall Street last night as markets mistake the absence of selling as the absence of a bear market. Gold remained above the $1600USD per ounce level while other undollar currencies advanced against USD as Congress finally passed a fiscal rescue package. The
The Australian dollar is s till Happy Jack the Hangman this morning: Bonds are selling as the psychopathic long takes hold: Stocks too but they’re fading with US futures: Big Iron just loves a psycho: Big Gas is a psycho so no surprises that it’s warmed up: Psychohedge, Big Gold, is still struggling: Big Banks
By Chris Becker The dead cat twitched on its terminal bounce and markets are now mistaking it for signs of life as Congress finally agrees on a significant fiscal spending bill. Wall Street soared 10% higher with the USD falling slightly, alongside Treasuries while commodities were relatively unchanged, except for gold which soared another 5%
Everything is awesome as the whole of Asia buys buys buys! Or is it just short covering before another leg down as the US remains in deadlock, both leadership wise and fiscal stimulus, as Congress remains stalled. Gold continued its good run to put in a new weekly high while other Asian nations announce more
Via The Australian: Global fund manager Magellan says its defensive equity strategy saying is well positioned to ride out the financial storm caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Magellan Financial last week in a note to shareholders detailed its equity strategy for the group’s $100bn investment portfolio. Approximately 15 per cent of its investments will be held in
Australian dollar to the moon: XJO to the moon: Bonds still bid: Dalian has not bounced as much as I thought on South African shutdowns: Big Iron is up a bit: Big Oil more: Big Gold wants to have another go: Big Banks to the moon: Same for Big Maggot: Just another dead cat bounce,
Yesterday was another bloodbath for banks on the ASX, with the ASX 200 Financials index plunging another 9.3% to be down 44% since the 21 February peak: According to Goldman Sachs, the domestic economy will contract by 6% in 2020, and that this will see the banks’ bad debts increase to 50 basis points of
It’s an equal mix of delight and boredom that greets the daily feed of fund manager calls that the market has bottomed. Reading LiveWire is particularly amusing. There are more calls today that with the Fed’s new QE infinity we’ve reached the turning point. I remain very skeptical that that is the case. Why? Three
By Chris Becker Last night saw the Federal Reserve take the QE infinity sword out of the sheath, but it was like limp lettuce to risk markets with only a slight fall in USD as bond yields continued to fall to record lows. Wall Street was down 5% at one point as Congress (remember its
Groundhog day yet everyone? The ASX200 gapped over 8% lower on the open while other Asian indices oscillated wildly as the uncoordinated fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus pandemic over the weekend has caused risk markets to have yet another epic day of volatility. Funnily enough the only sanity out there is currencies, with
Via Goldman: Conditions for reducing deep tail risks now. Simplistically, for asset markets to recover sustainably from the current crisis, we think the market will need to be able to put limits on the tail risks that are currently centre-stage and for new tail risks not to surface. The broad challenge is that this crisis is unique
Via Goldman: We now forecast S&P 500 EPS of $110 in 2020, a decline of 33% from 2019. On a quarterly basis, this reflects year/year growth of -15%, -123%, -21% and +27% (Exhibit 1). We have cut our 2020 earnings forecast three times in 30 days (-37% in total) as the magnitude of the economic
All those long only equities managers calling buy the dip are being minced again today. The Australian dollar is down hard again: Bonds are bid bigly: XJO’s bath of blood is hosing everything, gapping down 8%: And the damage is still not priced. Big Iron is down: Big Oil too: And Big Gold: Big Banks
By Chris Becker Not a good time to try to time your way around these markets with Wall Street slumping again out of the blue on Friday night. Despite the record and widespread adoption of both fiscal and monetary stimulus packages around the world, equity markets are still pricing in severe recessions for the rest
Finally, some steady gains across the region, following the lead from overnight stock markets. The USD reversed course as a series of events including a big jump in projected US unemployment and proposed lockdowns in California. The RBA started their QE program today while the PBOC continues to weaken the Yuan, although offshore trading slumped
Via CNBC: Meanwhile, ASX soars 4% at the open: Buy the dip! Lol.
By Chris Becker Some calm returned to risk markets overnight, but its all relative, with oil shooting 20% higher on shutdown rumors from an already overly depressed level. Stocks did well in Europe and stumbled a little higher on Wall Street while in currency world, its still all about the King, as gold slumped to
Another sea of red across Asian stock markets today as the crash continues, with local stocks leading the way despite a big cut to interest rates locally by the RBA and a near twenty year low for the Australian dollar. Japanese stocks are off as well despite the BOJ stepping in and buying up big,
Pulled down then shredded. Via BofAML: • Investor sentiment has collapsed on the back of the coronavirus, oil shock, recession, and surging debt default risk. • March FMS sends BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (flagship sentiment index) from 2.5 to 1.7, triggering first contrarian “buy signal” for risk assets since Aug’19 (link). • FMS sentiment
By Chris Becker Insert fear/panic quote here. The only thing you can predict about markets at the moment is that they’re unpredictable with yet another night of big falls on Wall Street, as the risk complex teeters once more. Today in Asia is going to be hectic plus the added bonus of seeing what the
Hamish Douglass of Magellan makes a good flip today, at The Australian: One of Australia’s leading global fund managers, Magellan Financial chief executive Hamish Douglass, has warned of a “near total shutdown” of the world’s economy and a “near total collapse in demand” for many companies over the next two to six months as a
Another day of stupidity on local stocks, with the ASX200 selling off because ScoMo had some choice words for the unwashed hoarders, while other stock markets lifted across the region. Nevertheless, US futures are down going into the European open with the USD retreating against the majors, except gold which is looking wobbly after several
Shares in Australia-listed real estate investment trusts fell sharply yesterday amid growing concern about the impact of the coronavirus on their operations. There is growing speculation that shopping centre owners will have to shut down parts of their properties, while ensuring that outlets such as supermarkets and pharmacies remain open. Sholto Maconochie of Jefferies says
The Australian dollar is still trading below 60 cents: Bonds are bid after the opening yield spike: XJO is off a breezy 4%: As Big Iron sells: Big Oil has been annihilated: Big Gold is hanging in. It’s now buy the dip: Big Banks are…I’m out of adjectives?: Big Realty is starting to burn: More
