Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets remain unsettled after Friday’s fizzer on Wall Street, as the upcoming Biden presidential inaguration later this week is possibly hindering risk taking. Gold and silver had wide trading ranges to start the week while Bitcoin has been falling sharply later this afternoon after it failed to breach the $40,000 level late last

6

Macro Morning

Friday night saw risk markets continue their reversal of confidence as Biden gets closer to taking the presidency and a very large – and taxing (sic) – stimulus package comes forth. The latest consumer confidence numbers doubled down on the weak US economy meme following the initial jobless claims surprise, putting pressure on the Fed

171

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are very unsettled going into the final trading session of the week, with the Biden stimulus plan not landing on the right note for risk takers as higher taxes are definitely on the agenda. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are not pulling back to any new session lows, while Bitcoin

10

Macro Morning

Action on risk markets was muted last night due to the release of the latest jobless claims in the US, followed by the post-close Biden stimulus package announcement, with the former unexpectedly nearly hitting the 1 million mark. This has reassessed chances of a taper by the Fed, with bond markets starting to trickle higher

105

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are moving higher almost in unison, with Australian shares lagging but finally putting in a decent bid as Japanese stocks head above new decade highs. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed with both unable to put in new session highs, while Bitcoin continues to hang on above its technical breakout level above

2

Macro Morning

It was the return of the king last night – king dollar that is – with yet another reversal in USD due to a very solid US inflation report, with core inflation bang on target while year on year inflation actually ticked higher than expected. This saw a selloff in the majors while the usual

33

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are quite mixed with a big inversion in direction today as Japanese stocks rallied, Chinese bourses dropped while the ASX200 did 2/5ths of nothing again.  Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are putting in mild upswings in the short term, while Bitcoin is at a key technical point here, ready to

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Tech stock bubble about to pop?

As we enter the first of our recovery inflation panics over the next three months of base effects, one of the quivering bubbles standing in the way is overvalued growth stocks, particularly tech. Rising inflation and growth outlooks always favour value factors over growth, which tends to rise when inflation breakevens fall and investors put

5

Macro Morning

Last night saw a solid reversal in USD, blamed in part on the Fed with several speeches by Federal Reserve officials overnight putting a hawkish bent on their position in 2021. Furthermore, US Treasury yields fell back on some soft auctions with bond markets starting to broadcast further volatility ahead. Oil prices lifted again alongside

123

Macro Afternoon

Asian markets are still very hesitant to take on more risk with the return of Japanese markets still not providing any catalyst for more upside, except on mainland China. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are finding some life later this afternoon, while Bitcoin is rallying again after dropping down towards the $30,000 handle,

7

Macro Morning

Markets restarted the week with volatility, as hopes and fears over stimulus and 2nd Trump impeachment collided with the USD providing the safe haven of choice. Oil prices came off only slightly as a result while other commodities pulled back, but the real news was in “stable next currency to replace everything” Bitcoin. After breaching

81

Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are having a mixed start to the week after absorbing the NFP/US Unemployment print on Friday night, with weekend machinations help push down risk spirits somewhat. This is exemplified in the performance of Bitcoin since it seemingly topped out on Friday night just below the $42000 level and lost nearly $9000 or some

9

Macro Morning

Markets ended a tumultous week with some firm moves higher on Friday night in response to the latest US unemployment data, with commodities moving around the most as stocks lifted firmly into new record highs across Wall Street.   Oil prices went into super overbought mode with both Brent and WTI lifting more than 3% higher

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What will matter to markets in 2021

Global Reflation The base case for the global economy is a growth and profits boom in 2021. This is a combination of four factors: ongoing huge stimulus catch-up growth ongoing inventory rebuild falling US dollar These four factors will dominate growth and profits. Monetary authorities will do nothing to tighten in 2021, outside of China.

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Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are having a wonderful end to the week now that Trump has finally conceded he lost the election (from two months ago). Bitcoin is having a few wobbles but looks set to get higher again tonight, currently at just below $39000 as it continues to have 10% plus volatility intrady. Gold has been

23

Macro Morning

Stimulus and vaccine hopes are overriding concerns of more market regulation from a Democrat-controlled Congress, as Wall Street surged to big new record highs overnight, overshadowing the political turmoil seen in the Capitol yesterday. Oil prices continued to lift while Bitcoin remains unstoppable, lifting to a new record high after briefly breaching the $40,000 level,

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Macro Afternoon

A strange day for geo-politics as the US goes bananas – literally – which hasn’t upset risk markets as the certainty around a Biden administration becomes pretty clear.   Bitcoin continues to surge, now above the “insert crazy level here” while gold is trying to recover from its overnight breakdown, up slightly but looking weak here

17

Macro Morning

Wall Street continued to surge overnight despite the chaos on Capitol Hill with only the NASDAQ pulling back with European stocks outperforming. Oil prices continued to lift on the Saudi cuts while Bitcoin remains unstoppable, lifting to a new record high to be above $36000 mark at one stage as the daily chart moves further

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Macro Afternoon

Another mixed day of trading in Asia with most stock markets declining or putting in minor scratch sessions as Wall Street futures pulled back in the wake of a probable Democrat victory in the special Georgian elections that will decide the fate of the Senate.  Bitcoin continues to surge, now above the $35000 level while

36

Macro Morning

Wall Street refound its lost confidence overnight as the Georgian senate races got underway as a selloff in Treasuries – sending 10 year yields nearer the 1% magical level – embiggened stock bidding, lifting the S&P500 to a new high.  Oil prices surged on a post OPEC+ announcement that the Saudis would make some production

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Macro Afternoon

Another mixed day of trading in Asia with most stock markets putting in scratch sessions as confidence was lost on Wall Street overnight.  Bitcoin volatility remains relatively high, putting in another $2000 roundtrip expedition and currently on a downleg below the $31000 level while gold looks a bit toppy as it runs out of puff

6

Macro Morning

It was all set to be a clear path into 2021 with Asian and European stock markets doing well, as Wall Street lost confidence overnight in the wake of the UK virus lockdown and uncertainty around the US election (both presidential and upcoming Georgian senate races). This should prove a big headwind for stocks today

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Macro Afternoon

A relatively mixed first day of trading in 2021 here in Asia with Japanese stock markets pulling back as Yen surges, while the rest of the region saw good moves higher across stocks and other risk assets. The big non-suprise (?) has been epic upside volatility in Bitcoin, which launched over 10% higher to be

4

Macro Morning

And we’re back for 2021 with risk markets really loving the Christmas/New Year break as US stocks go to new record highs, pushing up other risk assets along the way. The fly in the ointment of course was Brexit, with European and non-European bourses (aka FTSE) not having a sterling (sic) a time over the

41

Macro Afternoon

A quiet last day of trading before the Christmas break here in Asia with some mild raises across stock markets and low volatility in currency land.  Bitcoin has fallen below the $23000 support level thought, and gold is steady at its start of week trading level at $1875USD per ounce: The Shanghai Composite is down

1

Macro Morning

Action on risk markets overnight was relatively mild as Trump’s dumping of the Congress stimulus package was absorbed with aplomb by stocks, with rumors that the Brexit deal is almost sealed helping lift European stocks. Commodities found a solid bid with oil rising 2% or more while gold and silver stabilised alongside Bitcoin, as it

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are regaining after their stumble yesterday, and despite the threatened veto by almost-former President Trump to stop the just-passed US stimulus package, S&P futures are on the mend as risk markets re-balance from that catalyst.  Bitcoin continues to rebuff the $24000 resistance level while gold has failed to gain any traction, heading back

7

Macro Morning

A mixed night on risk markets as the Asian close presaged downside volatility that didn’t eventuate on European markets, but kept Wall Street on edge with only tech stocks on the NASDAQ advancing as the latest US stimulus package didn’t do much to lift confidence. Commodities finally couldn’t find a bid with iron ore dropping