Chinese bourses are dragging down the risk sentiment into a defensive mode given the late poor lead on Wall Street overnight, as the Brexit drama rolls on again. The possibility of an extension to Brexit to even early next year is providing a little bit of hope but both Euro and Pound Sterling are steady
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The “quant quake” is happening again. Overnight, and indeed, over the past week, we have seen a very sharp rotation into value factors and out of momentum factors. This follows on from the sharp rotation we saw from late August to early September. To be sure, there
By Chris Becker Overnight risk markets were relatively stable due to the absence of any major catalysts or economic news, although Wall Street wilted later in the session as European stocks tread water. Only Pound Sterling stood out on currency markets, dropping as the UK Parliament voted for Brexit once more while bond yields also
A sea of green on stock markets across Asia although not as substantial as that on overnight markets, with Japanese bourses closed for a holiday providing a muddy picture to overall sentiment. Commodities were relatively weak while currencies tread water as USD gained slightly. The Shanghai Composite was floating along and looked set to put
By Chris Becker The USD gained strength overnight, with equity markets moving higher in Europe and then dragging Wall Street along with it as Trump suggested/lied about a possible “new” deal with Chyna. The Brexit chaos continued however, with Pound Sterling falling back on a possible confirmation of a delay on the exit, but its
A better than expected day on stock markets across Asia despite the poor lead from Wall Street on Friday night as the weakening in USD and co-ordinated volatility in currency markets abated on the Monday morning gap open. A lack of data throughout the session and later tonight is seeing some stability come back to
From Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Over the weekend, UK Prime Minister Johnson’s attempt to get parliamentary approval for his Brexit deal fell flat – not because of inadequate support for his bill, but because of an earlier amendment put forward by Sir Letwin, designed to avoid any meaningful vote on the bill until details
By Chris Becker Friday night saw Wall Street lose further ground as the Brexit delay deal took over volatility on currency markets, sending the USD down against all the majors, except gold. Oil prices failed to reinforce the previous breakout with a big lift in inventories while renewed focus on the US/China trade war saw
Another mixed day on stock markets across Asia despite the solid lead from Wall Street overnight with currency markets relatively stable as the latest Chinese data came in better than expected. The Shanghai Composite failed to make good on the trifecta of releases, down nearly 0.6% going into the close at 2956 points while the
By Chris Becker Wall Street took back its previous mild losses overnight while European bourses were hesistant to move forward despite a supposed “new deal” for Brexit and a possible ceasefire in Syria. While US stocks gained, Treasuries gravitated around the 1.80% level again, as Brent and WTI crude oil prices lifted solidly on the
A somewhat mixed day on stock markets across Asia as the poor lead from Wall Street and the drop in USD overnight seeing sentiment shift from the positive mood at the start of the week. Today’s better than expected unemployment print saw the Aussie dollar jump while gold also rose among the undollar assets. The
Via BofAML: Tweeting the October Global FMS #bottomline: Oct FMS shows investor sentiment bearish despite credit & equity rally; if trade war and BREXIT fears unrealized in Q4 then macro can beat expectations validating our contrarian bullish view. #up-in-cash: FMS cash levels up to 5.0% from 4.7%, leaving BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator at an
By Chris Becker Wall Street pulled back slightly overnight with a mixed Europe also weighing on positive sentiment as retail data disappointed and UK CPI came in lower than expected. Lack of news on a looming Brexit deal kept the continental currencies elevated slightly, while the US retail sales print saw USD flop, spiking Aussie
A generally positive day across Asian risk markets excepting mainland China, following the good mood on Wall Street overnight. The Australian dollar continued to tank following yesterday’s release of the RBA minutes while the NZD was relatively stable despite an uptick in monthly CPI. Yen strengthened slightly after a big breakout in USD strength overnight
By Chris Becker The prospect of a potential Brexit deal and the partial US-China trade deal took stocks to a four week high despite the ongoing Turkish/Syria tensions. US Treasury yields jumped, pushing US stocks higher while commodity prices slipped as the USD was largely unchanged as Pound Sterling jumped to a near six month
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg announced Monday an ACCC investigation into the banks not passing on interest rate cuts. I think the investigation will make a nice addition to ACCC’s bookshelf. They can file it next Rudd’s FuelWatch and Grocery Code of Conduct. The biggest question is whether the investigation is designed to be a distraction from
Via Damien Boey from Credit Suisse: On Friday evening, the Trump administration announced a partial trade deal with China (Phase I). Key ingredients of the deal include: Delay of tariff increases that would have taken effect on 15 October. Increases in Chinese purchases of US agricultural products. Intellectual property measures. Greater currency transparency. Greater concessions
The AUD is bid this morning as bulls look towards a weak NFP tonight: But bonds are bid bigly: The AX has failed to rebound: Big Iron has added pennies: Big Gas is still falling: Big Gold is stable: Big Banks weak as the realisation dawns that their earning power is history: Scum is up:
XJO is taking it right in the team this morning, down 2.3%, with a nice double top in place short term: And downright epic long: Bonds are bid: AUD too: Big Iron is falling off a very high perch: Big Gas is in severe danger as oil crumbles: Gold up: Big banks are nasty: Even
By Chris Becker The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected overnight at the FOMC meeting, but the response has been mixed across risk markets. The USD rose significantly against the majors, although gold was spared, with Treasury yields jumping across the curve. Stock markets were less fussed, with scratch sessions dominating across both
Caution reigns across Asia with the somewhat positive mood on Wall Street unable to be translated into any meaningful gains on stock markets, with bonds moving higher and USD firming. The Shanghai Composite was the standout however, coming back from yesterday’s slump to finish nearly 0.3% higher at 2985 points, still below the 3000 point
Quite a mixed session across Asia today with Chinese stocks slumping, Australian advancing while the long weekend dampener has seen Japanese bourses remain steady, despite a weaker Yen. Oil prices haven’t moved much since their weekend gap, but this could be the calm before the storm as OPEC is due to hold a press conference
The Australian has been falling this morning and appears in danger of deeper retracement: Bonds are bid again: A stocks fall: Dalian is soft: Big iron has flamed out. FMG above $9 as China slows is something else: Big Gas is running of course: Big Gold looks very double toppy: Big Banks are down but
By Chris Becker The oil crisis in Saudi Arabia dominated the headlines overnight, pushing stock markets down and sending WTI and Brent crude prices nearly 14% higher. Other safe havens like Yen and gold continued to lift from their Asian sessions, while Treasury yields fell back amidst an absence of economic events. Commodity currencies remain
It’s an almost risk off day here in Asia as markets react to the weekend attack on Saudi oil production by the Yemeni’s, producing the inevitable spike in crude prices, gapping nearly 10% or so before moderating this afternoon. Other safe havens have seen a bid, most notably Yen but also gold which got back
By Chris Becker Friday night saw US stocks tread water despite a better than expected retail sales print with US Treasury yields instead spiking higher, dragged along by German bunds despite the ECB’s Thursday announcement of easing and more QE. In currency land, Pound Sterling continued its rise while Euro made it a new monthly
The risk on mood in Asia continues with very solid rises in Japan and China, with local markets drifting only a little higher as currency and commodity pressure weighs. The ECB QE outcome from last night is still rippling through currency markets with the Euro ready to surge higher again tonight. The Shanghai Composite is
By Chris Becker A volatile night on currency markets as the ECB cut rates and restarted its QE program in the face of a continental recession and Brexit concerns. Stocks rose mildly in response however, while bond yields are weirdly higher, including Euro! Oil prices fell back again while gold was largely unchanged, but remained
The risk on mood has increased here in Asia with solid rises across most stock markets, although locally the ASX200 is dragging its feet. This is all due to the delay in Chinese tariffs, with bond yields rising and oil prices still under pressure post-Bolton “firing”. The Shanghai Composite is making a comeback, currently up
By Chris Becker The positive mood is quickening with overnight markets reacting to the upside on US-China trade talks with US Treasury yields hitting a one month high. The firing of NSA John Bolton saw oil price drop, plus talk of easing of sanctions on Iran, while US PPI inflation figures were upbeat, lifting USD
