Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are once again oblivious to real world macro settings as the Dictator-in-Chief sends the USD plummeting against major currencies at a similar rate of decline of the US standing in the world. The RBA maintained its historically low interest rates, not going negative as many economists are pushing locally, while Bitcoin breached the

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Defining the new Australian profits cycle

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Two different approaches to modelling ASX 200 earnings, with two different answers. We use two different top-down approaches to explain and predict the cycle in ASX 200 real earnings per share (EPS). The first simply correlates market real EPS with economic activity as measured in the national accounts. The second is more

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stock markets continue to diverge from economic reality with Wall Street lifting higher despite rising civil unrest and growing tensions with China over Hong Kong and other trade disputes. The latest ISM manufacturing survey had some glimmer of hope within but still showed extremely weak conditions across the US as unemployment ravages

178

Macro Afternoon

A modest start to the week as Chinese equity markets react to the wet lettuce rhetoric from Trump on China’s boot on Hong Kong’s neck as most capital cities in the US burn, which should send housewares/DIY/retail stocks up when Wall Street opens later tonight. The USD is falling sharply, particularly against the Aussie dollar,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Action on markets on Friday night was centered around the US reaction to the Chinese boot on the neck on Hong Kong, with Trump unable to enact anything but hot air in response which calmed stocks on Wall Street somewhat even though the headline Dow fell slightly. The weekend race riots across

125

Macro Afternoon

A flat end to the week as the window dressing month end meme takes place across risk assets with most stock markets pulling back here in Asia. Besides the usual end of month reshuffle, risk is still waiting Trump’s policy announcement on China, but it seems he’s too busy having a dummy spit about Twitter

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Keen versus Gurner to distract Switzer investors

Bloody Switzer won’t leave poor Steven Keen alone: WATCH | SWITZER TV PROPERTY: “Dr Doom” Steve Keen and Tim Gurner join @PeterSwitzer on our latest property [email protected]#Investing #Property #Economy #Money #Finance #HousePrices #RBA #COVID19 — Switzer (@Switzercomau) May 29, 2020 Roll out the housing bear to distract investors from this underperforming ETF:

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Bank bid blows up

The Australian dollar is hovering at the highs this morning even as S&P futures fall: Bonds are firm: XJO has gapped lower at the open: Big Iron is up: Big Gas down with oil’s struggles: Big Gold is warm as DXY softens: The Big Bank bid has run into a big reversal. The whole value

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The risk edifice continues to push higher, helped along by a reduction in continuing jobless claims in the US even though all the other economic markers show the world’s biggest economy in a deepening recession. Wall Street stumbled at the finish due to some Trump remarks with US Treasury yields rising slightly,

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Macro Afternoon

A busy day in Asia with lots of economic reports confirming the impact the coronavirus is having on world economies, with the RBA all but ruling out negative interest rates as the local appetite for capital expenditure falls sharply. Despite the economic reality, the unrelated share market rally’s continue across the region, save for embattled

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Mums and Dads drive stock crash up

Via Morgan Stanley: Retail Squeezing Institutions – but Retail Demand May be Slowing Another short squeeze, a new worst day for Growth vs Value (MSZZGRVL) after just setting that record a week ago, the 16th worst day for Momentum (MSZZMOMO), etc. and investors are asking “who’s buying (and does it continue)” and “does the rotation have

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Too early to celebrate value comeback

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Value bounces hard. Over the past few days, we have seen value factors outperform very sharply. Sectorally in Australia, high yielding banks have led the charge, while healthcare stocks have been the laggards. The bid for resources stocks has also unwound, strangely on concerns about US-China tensions on the one hand, but

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed mood in Asia despite the orgy of buying still going on in the northern hemisphere with only Japanese stocks advancing on the whiff of more stimulus measures. Meanwhile the Chinese Yuan hit a new low versus USD again, with offshore trading pushing through the 7.17 handle as other majors kept firm against USD

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The return of Wall Street sent risk sentiment higher overnight as stock markets continued their push to return back to normal overinflated bubble like status before the COVID-19 pandemic. The USD took a big hit against the majors with Pound Sterling back to a two week high and the Australian dollar pushing

213

Macro Afternoon

A solid up day here in Asia despite the lack of a lead from US and UK markets with a sea of green across stock markets. The USD is weakening against all the majors, save Yen, with gold still asleep on the sidelines. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1% higher to 2846 points,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Even a closed Wall Street couldn’t keep the bulls away overnight with European markets surging as the prospect of more economies opening up post-COVID19 overshadowed any concerns over the Chinese/US tensions. Currency and bonds were relatively stable, although gold lost further ground while industrial commodities lifted with oil prices hitting another new

103

Macro Afternoon

Despite the rising tensions with China and the West over Hong Kong and the and a long weekend for US markets, risk is going all in again in Asia, starting the week with a flourish outside of the Middle Kingdom. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is off a handful of points, still hovering above

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Why markets don’t care about Hong Kong

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit suisse: Well that escalated quickly! Over the past few weeks, tensions have simmered among global leaders over the causes of and responsibility for the COVID-19 outbreak. Despite collective efforts to find a cure or vaccine for the virus, it seems that a comprehensive medical solution has not yet  been found, and politicians

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The Trading Week ended with a whimper on Friday night on Wall Street as tensions over the US/China relationship continued to simmer over as the rhetoric ramped up going into the CCP’s national congress. Meanwhile, the long weekend caused many traders to pare their positions with US stocks ending mixed, and Treasuries

146

Macro Afternoon

It looks like the risk complex has had enough of buying, with all stock markets coming up against resistance and unable to push through, the catalyst today being the Chinese revision in official GDP growth targets, coupled with the clear death of freedom in Hong Kong. The USD continues to firm against all the majors

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment just can’t seem to get above the current elevated levels on stock markets around the world and are snaring back to reality everytime a macro issue raises its head. US stocks fell back nearly 1% overnight on US/China tensions and the rising coronavirus case load, with the USD reasserting itself

171

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are slipping again, coming up against significant buying resistance as other risk assets like oil are still flying ahead as caution spreads across Asia. Gold also fell back as the USD strengthened against all the major currencies, with the Aussie also back to its prebreakout high. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is selling

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets re-engaged the buy levers again with the release of the latest FOMC minutes providing a catalyst for further advances, Wall Street lifting nearly 2% while other risk assets like the Australian dollar and oil rose in kind with industrial metals mixed. Treasury yields fell back to historic lows again while

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks were all over the place today, initially starting out rough with gap downs across the region before most recovered in late trading on optimism that Wall Street will pull the rest of the risk edifice along. Gold nudged higher for a new daily high towards $1750USD per ounce while the Aussie dollar was largely

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A hiccup in risk taking overnight as stock traders read the fineprint attached to the new vaccine news, coupled with steeper than expected declines in a variety of economic reports, namely housing starts, European unemployment and the closely watched German ZEW survey. Gold held on while other major currencies fell back slightly

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Macro Afternoon

The pandemic crisis is over:buy stocks! That’s the message from risk markets across the world at the moment, as stocks breakout of their holding patterns and all the short positions are wound back, while rational investors remain on the sidelines. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1% to be one or two