Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A public holiday on Wall Street was enough to take the wind out of the bubble blowers overnight with European markets putting in mild scratch session, while bond markets drifted around. The IMF lowered their growth forecasts in the recent release at Davos while oil prices came back after reaching a new

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are creeping ever higher, lifting by the megabullish sentiment on Wall Street from Friday night with more record highs and new yearly highs the order of the day. Chinese stocks have diverted in fortune again with the goosed Shanghai Composite lifting nearly 0.5% to almost start the week back above the 3100

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Enjoy the harmless Aussie stock bubble while it lasts

Via Bloomie: The S&P/ASX 200 index has jumped 5.4% this year, besting all equity benchmarks in the developed world, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Optimism over the U.S.-China trade deal, coupled with lower-for-longer interest rates and the potential for further cuts are helping the gauge extend gains following 2019’s best-in-a-decade surge. It is ludicrous on any fundmental basis

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another record night on Wall Street as institutional memories of past bubbles are erased and everyone presses the buy button! Solid US economic data on Friday night, namely industrial production for December imbibed risk to improve the outlook for 2020, with the USD surging against Euro in response. Commodities rose slightly alongside

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Macro Afternoon

It’s all guns blazing, bulls let loose in China shops – well, except China – as Asian stock markets are buoyed by the overnight lift on Wall Street with record highs and new yearly highs the order of the day. Chinese stocks are still struggling to make gains despite the rest of the region with

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Today in Asia, markets will be watching the Chinese Q4 GDP print and have a wave of bullishness behind them if it all goes to plan as Wall Street made yet another record high in the wake of solid retail sales data for December. The USD re-engaged its strength against the majors

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Macro Afternoon

Most Asian stock markets remained where they started trading today as the response to the signing of the US/China trade deal was not as bullish as expected. Chinese stocks continue to struggle with a higher Yuan with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 0.5% to remain well below the 3100 points level, closing at 3074 points,

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Secrets of the great stock market levitation

Let’s examine some charts on the great stock levitation. Very rich valuations: Led by…you guessed it, tech: With nothing like enough profits growth in the offing, even with mainlined hopium: The boom is all about price: Driven by extreme sentiment: Completely dislocated from fundamentals: Thanks to free money! But not necessarily over… We’re still late

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Depsite the signing of the Phase 1 trade deal between China and the US, sentiment soured overnight with Wall Street just scraping in with scratch session with focus actually on the impending impeachment trial in the Senate. The USD unwound its earlier gains while Bitcoin continued its big meltup, almost approaching $9000

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Macro Afternoon

Most Asian stock markets slipped in trading today as the response to the cooler than expected US CPI print and a much higher Yuan, all in anticipation of the signing of the Phase 1 US/China trade deal takes risk off the table temporarily. Chinese stocks are now struggling to absorbing the Yuan rise with the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are trying to make new record highs again but the slightly softer than expected CPI print in the US overnight shook up the complex, with mixed results on Wall Street and scratch sessions across the European continent. Currency markets were generally contained with the majors not moving much while Pound

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets advanced outside of China as the PBOC substantially lowered the fix of the Yuan which saw it strengthen a lot in offshore trading, now down to 6.87 making a new monthly low. The three main Asian undollars – Aussie, Kiwi and Yen – all fell back against the USD as result. Chinese

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another bullish day to be expected here in Asia with another record high on Wall Street overnight pushing the risk complex along with tech stocks leading the way. The poor US jobs print from Friday seems to have been forgotten as focus shifts more to risk taking, but currency markets were relatively

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed start to the trading week here in Asia with only the ASX200 pulling back in response to the small selloff on Wall Street on Friday night, as the rest of the region continued higher. The PBOC fix of the Yuan saw it strengthen a lot in offshore trading, down to 6.90, reaching a

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw a big reversal in USD as the long awaited US unemployment (non-farm payroll or NFP) print for December showed a much less than expected pace – only 145K jobs created – with a subsequent risk-off mood on Wall Street. Undollars like gold and especially the Australian dollar broke higher

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed end to the trading week here in Asia as risk positions for tonight’s US unemployment print that will set the tone for the rest of January, post the Iranian crisis. Meanwhile, the PBOC daily Yuan fix saw another drop in offshore trading while the latest retail sales print pushed the Aussie dollar slightly

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The relief rally continues as the de-escalation in the US-Iran brouhaha boosted risk sentiment higher, although the recent news of the Ukrainain jet disaster being Iran shooting the jet down will complicate this significantly. Nevertheless, stock markets reached new record highs again on Wall Street, while bond yields are higher and currencies

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Macro Afternoon

Risk took a calm sigh here today in Asia as the relief rally widened, with stocks rallying hard alongside risk proxies like USDJPY. The PBOC daily Yuan fix saw a big drop in offshore trading, down to the 6.92 level and almost a yearly low while the latest Australian trade balance figures didn’t effect the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets were in relief mode last night as the teleprompter did the talking for Trump, easing off on strikes against Iran, which sent the USD higher against nearly everything and pulled out the stops on Wall Street, although defense stocks were disappointed. Bond yields are higher, while the USDJPY proxy jumped

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Macro Afternoon

Well it’s been an interesting day to say the least here in Asia for risk markets with the Iranian attack on US bases in Iraq dominating the news and sentiment. Gold spiked above the $1600USD per ounce level alongside Bitcoin and other safe haven assets, setting of a chain of cash spilling out of stocks

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets continue to stumble around in the new year with the latest US economic data surprising slightly to the upside, pushing the USD higher against almost everything, but in particular the Australian dollar which crashed to a monthly low. Tensions over Iran have almost dissipated – the calm before the storm

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Macro Afternoon

There’s a more positive mood across Asia today due to Wall Street brushing aside any concerns about WW3 overnight, as the USD holds firmer across the board. The long wait to the February RBA meeting is seeing probability of a cut rising in the wake of poor macro data and the upcoming slashing of the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets remained cautious overnight in response to the ongoing US/Iranian tensions with European stocks dropping before a late rally on Wall Street saw Treasury yields rise as the mood improved. Gold held on to its big breakout while oil prices moderated only slightly. The USD rose against Yen in the risk-on

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Macro Afternoon

There’s a lot to digest for risk markets starting the trading week here in Asia with the return of Japanese traders to their desks adding to the volatility. Gold got an awesome bid in the morning, gapping some $20 higher to a near seven year high, as other risk proxies and safe havens reacted to

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The positive start to the trading year soured on Friday night on the news of the US airstrike assassination of a top Iranian general, combined with a very disappointing ISM manufacturing print saw US stocks fall. US Treasury yields fell alongside the USDJPY pair as safe haven bids took hold, while both

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Macro Afternoon

The risk complex is reeling from higher tensions in the Middle East as a top Iranian general is killed, with oil prices spiking considerably in the wake of the attack. Stocks are generally down in the region, although the local market was spared while gold also spiked higher on the tension. The Shanghai Composite is

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The start of the trading year was much better in the Northern Hemisphere overnight, with Wall Street rallying as tech stocks pushed the risk complex higher, despite a reversal in strength in USD which saw Euro and Pound Sterling fall. Gold prices continued their uptrend while Bitcoin remains depressed below the $7000

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Macro Afternoon

The big move on the return of Asian stock markets today after the New Year was cut the PBOC cutting banks’s reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps, starting next week which in effect releases nearly $1trillion in funding. At the same time, a drop to 6.96 on the official daily Yuan fix has seen risk

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The end of the trading year was marked by a lot of profit taking and squaring up as the month end and quarterly end triple witching saw major rebalances in equity portfolios, although Wall Street was largely immune from any downside volatility. Gold finished on a high while the USD came back

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets remain in light volume mode, which always increases the risk of volatility, especially to the downside where selloffs were the order of the day. The USD was still weaker, in particular against gold which ran up to a three month high above $1520 USD per ounce. The Shanghai Composite is up just