Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

While there was no change to the Bank of Japan’s interest rates at today’s meetings, the USD has surged across the board as US Treasury yields climb sharply on the return of US traders to their desks as the long weekend finishes. This has seen Asian stock markets put in mixed sessions despite lower domestic

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Macro Morning

Stock markets were relatively buoyant overnight due to the holiday on Wall Street plus the lack of economic releases, although the calendar plays catchup today with the latest BOJ interest rate meeting leading the charge here regionally. With US bond markets closed, there was no impetus there for change with the 10 year yield likely

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are starting the trading week generally upbeat despite a poor finish by stocks on Wall Street, with a cut in Chinese rate cuts helping buoy markets. Also, the stronger USD helped take the heat of some domestic currencies including the Australian dollar although gold is holding on to its poor Friday finish,

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A Fed boom or a Fed bust for stocks?

ZH has a couple of good wraps. First, bearish: For the past year BofA Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett, has been one of Wall Street’s gloomiest strategists (perhaps just below Albert Edwards and Michael Wilson on the permabear scale) warning that global markets are on the precipice of a very ugly turn of events, and

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Macro Morning

A slew of disappointing economic prints saw Wall Street finish in mixed fashion again on Friday night with the USD finally reversing course. US retail sales and industrial production prints fell back which saw the bond market sell off as 10 year yields almost hit the 1.8% level again. Gold fell back alongside other risk

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are finishing the trading week in poor spirits following the selloff in tech stocks overnight on Wall Street, with all markets losing 1% or more. The USD remains under pressure against everything with Bitcoin rolling over through the $43K level while gold has held on to and advanced from its previous breakout,

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Macro Morning

Wall Street hiccuped overnight following the big bang inflation print with tech stocks dragging the whole edifice down, with the NASDAQ losing 2.5% on the back of multiple Fed officials mentioning that sharp interest rate hikes are coming sooner than expected. The initial jobless claims print came in higher than expected, while the bond market

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Macro Afternoon

Quite a mixed session for Asian stock markets following the epic inflation print overnight in the US that is sure to stir risk markets everywhere as appreciating domestic currencies put a dampener on stock markets. The USD remains under pressure against everything although Bitcoin is still stalled at just over the $43K level but gold

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What are robots thinking for stocks?

It’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the robots: We are all bond traders now. Well, bond traders have always been bond traders, but even 18-year-old teenage equity and crypto “portfolio managers” now have to follow bond prices and yields more than any other market indicator for a sense of what happens next.

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Macro Morning

The big bang shocked risk markets overnight with one of the biggest inflation prints in decades in the US sending the USD down – yes, down – against almost everything – with stocks tentatively moving higher. The Fed has a lot of catch-up to do although the bond market was benign in the wake of

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Macro Afternoon

The bounce is in and risk taking is going great on Asian stock markets after a very mixed start to the trading week with all bourses reporting in the green with solid sessions. The USD continues to be under pressure following the Fed Chair’s testimony overnight but this could come under jeopardy if tonight’s core

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Nomura: Minsky moments await Fed

Terrific note from Charlie McElligott at Nomura who manages to cut through his usual robot babble to offer a precise take on what the Fed is about to do to markets: Simply a massive week ahead for markets, with Powell testimony and bunches of Fed speakers, along with US economic releases headlined by the market’s

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Macro Morning

The buy the dip crowd stepped in on Wall Street overnight following the previous session late bounceback as testimony from Fed Chair Powell on balance sheet adjustments saw USD weakness across the board that should result in higher risk taking here in Asia. The bond market firmed a little although the recent shorter term Treasury

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Why you should wait to BTFD

Morgan Stanley with the note. I agree. With rates having adjusted, our focus now turns to growth. The Fire part of our narrative is in full gear with both nominal and real rates moving sharply higher so far this year. This is having a disproportionate impact on expensive growth stocks, as it should, but the

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Should you BTFD?

Deutsche wraps what’s bothering equities: In our recap of the December FOMC meeting we emphasized risks that liftoff would occur in March and that balance sheet rundown could commence this year. This week’s minutes confirmed these hawkish signals and this morning’s December employment report showed further progress towards maximum employment. Accordingly, we have updated our

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Macro Morning

Wall Street was down over 2% overnight before a late bounceback saw it pare those losses as volatility across risk markets increases as the new year rolls on. The release of the latest US unemployment print last week continues to reverberate with 10 year Treasuries again up near the 1.8% level for new yearly highs

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are having very mixed starts to the trading week with local and Japanese shares going nowhere in the wake of a wobbly night on Wall Street following the US unemployment print on Friday night. Despite some initial USD weakness, not all risk currencies are bouncing back with the Australian dollar still under

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Stock market correction imminent

So says BofA via ZH: Well, we are finally here: 2022 has arrived and the rate shock that BofA’s bearish chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has prophetically been warning about arrived right out of the gate, and with a bang as both nominal and real yields spiked sharply higher in just the first week of 2022. And unfortunately,

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Macro Morning

Not a good start for the trading year for Wall Street with the release of the latest US unemployment print which was all over the place – not even 200K jobs created, far short of the 400K expected – but the actual rate fell and wage growth increased. This sent the bond market in a

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are having very mixed finishes to the trading week with a lot of internal and external macro pressures weighing on risk taking across the region as markets react to the very hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve. The USD remains the safe haven of choice with gold and the Australian dollar under

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Macro Morning

Following the release of the Fed minutes in the previous session, indicating a much more hawkish bent as markets get ready for tonights US unemployment print, it was a case of wait and see on Wall Street overnight, although the bond market continued to weaken as interest rates rises firm throughout the calendar year ahead.

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are pulling back very sharply across the region in response to Fed minutes released last night which saw tech stocks and Wall Street in general press the sell button on almost everything. The USD remains the safe haven of choice with gold and the Australian dollar under a lot pressure alongside other

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Macro Morning

The New Year party was spoiled by the release of the Fed minutes overnight, indicating a much more hawkish bent as we head into the taper and “normalisation” of interest rates in 2022. This caused tech stocks to fall sharply, dragging down industrials on Wall Street and pushing 10 year Treasury yields higher to almost

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are retracing across the region in response to the sharp falls on tech stocks overnight on Wall Street but it appears to be mean reversion more than an outright selloff at this stage. The Australian dollar remains under pressure alongside other risk currencies however, with Bitcoin still struggling at the $46K level

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Macro Morning

The good times continued on overnight stock markets although tech stocks on Wall Street had a stumble with profit taking on big numbers like Tesla and Apple despite a very solid manufacturing PMI print for December. Currency markets continued to recover from a period of low volume, nearly back to normal with USD hitting a

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Macro Afternoon

A not so quiet start to the trading year for Asian stock markets with some big swings higher as the lift on Wall Street overnight is embiggening risk spirits across the region. The Australian dollar however remains under pressure as does Bitcoin, struggling at the $46K level as gold claws through the NY/XMas volatile period

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Macro Morning

It’s time to crack the knuckles and get set for a new trading year with a quick look at what risk markets got up to over the Xmas/NY break as traders return to their desks slowly full of Christmas food (and possibly COVID blues). Volatility was relatively benign, all things considered, on Wall Street and

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Macro Afternoon

A quiet end to the trading year for Asian stock markets with listless sessions across the region as liquidity and trading volume continue to dry up with Wall Street having an early today. The Australian dollar and other risk currencies are holding on to their recent while Bitcoin wants to punch higher above the $51K

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Macro Morning

Risk markets continued their Santa Claus rally overnight with solid returns on Wall Street and European markets as very low trading volumes mask the veracity of thos returns as we head into the end of the trading year. The latest core PCE and consumer confidence prints for the US came in a little higher than

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are putting in mild up sessions across the region as liquidity and trading volume continue to fall as we head into the last trading sessions of the year. The Australia dollar and other risk currencies are holding on to their overnight gains but remain in a holding pattern, while Wall Street futures