Australian Shares

7

Record lows for McGrathmageddon

AUD is down during the morning: Aussie yields are too as bonds back away from a crazy break out: XJO is off modestly: The Dalian bear market rally is still firmish: Big Iron is off a bit. FMG has recaptured $4.50 but its larger bearish pattern is well intact: Big Gas is strong: Big Gold

7

ASX, Aussie dollar ignore slumping iron ore

Virtue signalling missiles is all that matters today with the AUD up: Bond yields threatening to break out: And XJO rallying: Underneath it all, Dalian is -2.8% and getting worse after China’s lousy weekend credit data and another PBOC money market rate hike today: Big Iron doesn’t care: Big Gas is off to the races:

0

Big Iron flies on rear-vision upgrades

AUD is stable during the day: Bonds are selling: As is XJO: Dalian has lost its overnight pop: But Big Iron is up on CLSA upgrades staring squarely into the rear vision mirror. BHP has had five upgrades this week. Great for setting shorts. FMG is finding $4.50 difficult as former support becomes resistance: Big

13

Aussie dollar, ASX shut eyes and hope

AUD is back as if nothing happened this morning: Bonds are bid: XJO is flat: Big Iron is bid with China closed. Of course it will benefit from any trade war (not): Big Gas is up as the nation chases its energy tail elsewhere: Big Gold is plodding along: The Big Sleazy bear market continues:

0

Fortescue down shaft as ASX glimpses light

The Aussie dollar is down during the day: Bonds have bid away from an extraodinarily stupid yield break out: XJO glimpses the light: As FMG falls down the shaft: My 2GB radio appearance has failed to derate Big Gas: Big Gold is still waffling: Big Sleazy is kidding itself that it’s over: And Big Puswad

3

Vimal Gor: Stocks top is in, brace for pain

Via BT’s excellent Vimal Gor today: There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a

39

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks continue to buck around on higher volatility with most bourses putting on small gains, while the ASX fell to its lowest level in months. It was a case of squaring positions before the Easter Weekend for most with yields on sovereign bonds also moderating. Commodity prices remain under pressure although there are some

24

Macro Afternoon

Asian shares reliably reacted negatively to the late overnight activity after the new Trump threats to  China trade with a big impact on tech stocks. The race to safe havens saw USD rise against the majors, even Yen although that was related to positive news coming out of North Korea. The Shanghai Composite closed 1.4% lower to

2

ASX tumbles through iron ore trapdoor

The Australian dollar is still hanging on at the lows of recent correction: But bond yields are bid big: And XJO is also back to the lows: As Dalian tumbles again: Big iron is under pressure. FMG has smashed support now with the waterfall ahead: Big Gas is easing. I’m mixed on it here depending

5

The problem with buybacks

The last few weeks have confirmed our view that most of the cash from Trump tax cuts will end up as dividends or buybacks. At the same time, we are awash with articles warning of the dangers of buybacks, from Vox to the FT  to the Harvard Business Review. I’m hoping none of these arguments

30

Macro Afternoon

The solid rebound on Wall Street last night translated into similar gains here in Asia, although a late selloff in China pared gains on the mainland. Yen sold off as well as the need for safe havens abated, with optimism rising in Korea surrounding a surprise trip to China by the North Korean leader. Other

1

ASX struggles despite the big bounce

The Aussie dollar is down during the day: Bonds are off: XJO is adding a lousy 40 points despite the global rebound: Dalian is up: Big Iron too though not FMG which has fallen right to its $4.50 support. It’s toast or I’m a monkey’s uncle: Big Gas is up: And Big Gold. I remain

11

Macro Afternoon

Not the Stormy session we were expecting here in Asia with most stock markets rebounding instead of following the very poor lead on Wall Street from Friday night. Adding to the calmness where no gaps in currency markets from the usual Monday morning nonsense, with Yen moderating slightly giving Japanese stocks a relief while the

42

Macro Afternoon

A bath of blood on Asian stock markets today in response to the impact of the US tariffs on Chinese goods. Not the best time to enact a new battle in this widening trade war by the Trump administration as risk markets were already teetering on the edge, with a race to safe havens like