New Zealand Economy

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Jacinda Ardern breaks key election promise to cut immigration

By Leith van Onselen In the September 2017 general election, the New Zealand Labour Party launched a plan to reduce immigration by around a third in a bid to relieve chronic housing and infrastructure pressures (especially around Auckland): …in recent years our population has been growing rapidly as record numbers of migrants arrive here. This

2

UBS: RBNZ capital requirements slam into Aussie banks

New Zealand may not have had a royal commission but it knows what it is doing when it comes to reckless Aussie banks. Via the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS: Reserve Bank of New Zealand capital requirements larger than prior estimates Recent speeches and publications by the RBNZ suggest it remains fully committed to its Bank

18

NZ’s housing minister talks the talk, but will he walk the walk?

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to, and directly following, the September 2017 New Zealand general election, I heavily praised Labour’s housing spokesman, Phil Twyford, for promising to address both supply and demand distortions via negative gearing reform, banning foreign buyers of existing homes, tighter capital gains taxes, removal of urban growth boundaries, plus

24

NZ immigration rebounds

By Leith van Onselen After Statistics New Zealand in January changed the way that it measures net overseas migration (NOM), resulting in large falls in the estimated migrant intake, it has released migration estimates for January 2019, which reveals that NOM is rebounding: According to Statistics NZ: Migrant arrivals were provisionally estimated at 151,600 (±

10

NZ house prices rise as volumes crash

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for February, which revealed a 0.8% seasonally adjusted rise in the national median house price, with prices up just 5.5% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 1.3% in February, with prices up 8.8% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities,

42

Kiwibuild turns epic ‘Kiwibust’ for Jacinda Adern

By Leith van Onselen I’ve noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” is shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have been

16

NZ mulls land bankers’ tax

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s Tax Working Group (TWG) – an 11-member group chaired by former Labour Finance Minister Michael Cullen – has delivered its final report, which recommends creating a local government tax on vacant residential land in a bid to stop land banking. From Interest.co.nz: The Tax Working Group (TWG) is recommending a new tax on vacant

5

Auckland house prices continue to fall

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for January, which revealed a 2.9% seasonally adjusted rise in the national median house price, with prices up just 5.2% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 2.3% in December, with prices up 9.7% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities,

2

NZ immigration continues to retrace

By Leith van Onselen After Statistics New Zealand last month changed the way that it measures net overseas migration (NOM), resulting in large falls in the estimated migrant intake, it has released migration estimates for the 2018 calendar year, which reveals that NOM fell further to 48,278 people, down from a peak of 62,227 in

10

Is Australia’s housing bust spreading to New Zealand?

By Leith van Onselen The property downturn appears to be spreading into New Zealand, with the latest valuation data from Quotable Value revealing that average residential property values in Auckland were almost 1% lower year-on-year in January, whereas the rate of price growth has also declined sharply across the rest of New Zealand: The latest RBNZ Survey

8

NZ unemployment jump whacks Australian dollar again

NZ Stats surprised with rising unemployment this morning versus expected flat: Unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent Underutilisation rate rose to 12.1 percent Employment rate fell to 67.8 percent Filled jobs rose 1.3 percent Average ordinary time hourly earnings rose to $31.63 Wage rates increased 1.9 percent annually. The NZD took a pounding dragging the

36

Ardern’s Kiwibuild turns epic ‘Kiwibust’

By Leith van Onselen I’ve noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” is shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have been

38

Statistics NZ dramatically lowers immigration estimate

By Leith van Onselen “Look mum, I’ve got a new ruler”. Statistics New Zealand has revised the way that it measures net overseas migration (NOM). Instead of using departure cards that people filled out when leaving the country, Statistics New Zealand now uses an “outcomes-based measure”, which it claims is more efficient and accurate. This

7

NZ housing sales plumb seven year lows

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for December, which revealed a 2.9% seasonally adjusted fall in the national median house price, with prices up just 1.7% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices fell by 1.1% in December, with prices up 6.5% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities,

24

Auckland’s housing crisis deepens

By Leith van Onselen Late last year, Interest.co.nz published an alarming report showing how the Auckland region’s undersupply of homes has blown-out by nearly 400% in just four years – from 6944 in 2014 to 34,150 in 2018 – on the back of an insane 134,000 increase in population from net overseas migration: On Friday,

17

Like Australia, immigration rorts run riot across New Zealand

By Leith van Onselen Over the past few years, MB has meticulously catalogued the widespread rorting of Australia’s immigration system that pervades across the entire economy. Well, it appears New Zealand is experiencing the very same systemic rorting, according to a recent detailed report published in Stuff.co.nz: After months of investigating visa frauds at the

5

Auckland Council: house prices won’t follow Sydney/Melbourne down

By Leith van Onselen Auckland Council’s chief economist, David Norman, has down-played concerns that Auckland’s housing market could follow Sydney’s and Melbourne’s down. From Interest.co.nz: “Suggestions that the Auckland housing market will follow those of the Australian eastern seaboard seem baseless,” he said. “Sydney and Melbourne are in a very different position, having not systematically under-built the

3

NZ GDP growth stalls, RBNZ to cut?

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released national accounts figures for the September quarter of 2018, with Gross domestic product (GDP) rising by just 0.3% over the quarter to be up 3.0% year-on-year. GDP per capita was flat in the September quarter but rose by 1.0% year-on-year. Growth my sector was mixed, with

6

As Auckland’s house prices fall, the rest of NZ’s rises

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for November, which revealed a 1.3% seasonally adjusted increase in the national median house price, with prices up 7.1% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 0.1% in November, with prices up 7.9% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities, Auckland’s

9

RBNZ to ease LVR restrictions

By Leith van Onselen A few months back, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released a study showing that its loan-to-value ratio (LVR) caps had fundamentally de-risked the housing market: The report found that prior to the introduction of LVRs in October 2013, the average new mortgage was for 67% of a property’s value.

21

Liar Ardern’s Kiwibuild turns ‘Kiwibust’

By Leith van Onselen I’ve noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” is shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have been

66

Liar Ardern breaks key election promise to cut immigration

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to last year’s September general election, the New Zealand Labour Party launched a plan to reduce immigration by around a third in a bid to relieve chronic housing and infrastructure pressures (especially around Auckland): …in recent years our population has been growing rapidly as record numbers of migrants

12

Ardern’s Kiwibuild affordable housing program an epic failure

By Leith van Onselen I noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” was already shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have