New Zealand Economy

1

Auckland house prices continue to drift lower

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for May, which revealed a 1.1% seasonally adjusted monthly rise in the national median house price, with prices also up 4.5% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices fell by 0.3% in May, with prices up 5.3% year-on-year. Looking at the major

23

NZ Labour sinks into immigration lies

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to last year’s September general election, New Zealand Labour Party launched a plan to reduce immigration by around a third in a bid to relieve chronic housing and infrastructure pressures (especially around Auckland): Last weekend, the Labour-led Government announced that it would triple the amount of time that

18

Foreign buyers gobble 7.3% of Auckland homes

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has commenced collecting data on non-resident purchases of New Zealand homes, and the results are interesting: In the March 2018 quarter, just over 3 percent of home transfers were to people who didn’t hold New Zealand citizenship or resident visas, Stats NZ said today… Nearly 33,000 homes were

21

Politicians only care about housing in opposition

By Leith van Onselen Back in 2007, then National opposition leader, John Key, lamented the woeful housing affordability in New Zealand (Auckland in particular), and promised to undertake a wide range of supply-side reforms if elected into government. John Key was elected as Prime Minister in November 2008 and the National Government ruled until September

38

Liar Jacinda Ardern opens immigration flood gates

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to last year’s September general election, I praised New Zealand Labour’s plan to reduce immigration by around a third, because it would help to relieve chronic housing and infrastructure pressures (especially around Auckland): Back in March, we experienced the first hint of backsliding from Labour, with Immigration Minister, Ian

9

RBNZ Governor backs sub-prime lending

By Leith van Onselen The new governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Adrian Orr, gave a bizarre interview on Newshub Nation over the weekend, whereby he simultaneously fretted over New Zealand’s excessive household debt while at the same time argued against loan-to-value ratio (LVR) limits for low income ‘Kiwi build’ borrowers. First, below

3

NZ mortage growth rebounds as investors stir

By Leith van Onselen The RBNZ’s latest mortgage data shows that household and mortgage credit growth has begun to rise again after cooling recently in response to loan-to-value ratio restrictions targeting investors. After bottoming in February at 5.7%, annual New Zealand household credit growth rose to 5.8% in April: Most of New Zealand’s household debt

5

Despite immigration fall, NZ housing shortage worsens

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s chronic housing shortage continues to worsen, especially in Auckland, despite dwelling consents rising and immigration falling. There were 11,629 dwelling consents issued across Auckland in the year to April (up 14%), and 32,015 consents issued across New Zealand over the year (up 5.4%): Despite the pick-up, none of this

4

RBNZ to maintain LVR restrictions

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) officially introduced loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions targeting investors on 1 October 2016, although banks began informally applying the rules since they were first announced in mid-July 2016. The latest mortgage data shows that household and mortgage credit growth has cooled significantly in New Zealand

6

Anatomy of an Auckland housing disaster

By Leith van Onselen You know Auckland’s housing market has hit peak stupid when despite a near record high average dwelling price of $1.05 million: And rampaging population growth: We are being told that Auckland’s dwelling values must continue to rise otherwise developers will go bust: House prices and those of commercial property projects will

23

NZ Government caves on housing affordability

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to last year’s September general election, I praised New Zealand Labour’s housing platform because it promised to address both supply and demand distortions via negative gearing reform, banning foreign buyers of existing homes, tighter capital gains taxes, removal of urban growth boundaries, plus bond financing for infrastructure. I

14

Is NZ Labour another housing affordability phony?

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to last year’s September general election, I praised New Zealand Labour’s housing platform because it promised to address both supply and demand distortions via negative gearing reform, banning foreign buyers of existing homes, tighter capital gains taxes, removal of urban growth boundaries, plus bond financing for infrastructure. I

4

Banking Royal Commission reverberates across the pond

By Leith van Onselen The revelations of misconduct arising from the Australian Banking Royal Commission has led to calls for a similar Royal Commission into New Zealand’s banking system from First Union – the union for New Zealand finance workers: Stephen Parry, National Finance Sector Organiser, says the investigation into Australian banks has revealed troubling

3

Auckland’s rat-wheel economy drives massive infrastructure deficit

By Leith van Onselen In August last year, Bernard Doyle, a strategist at JBWere, penned a ripping report on the New Zealand economy, arguing that rabid population growth was masking underlying weak productivity and poor per capita GDP growth: New Zealand has been in a productivity recession since 2012. Not that you’d notice from headline GDP

2

RBNZ macroprudential succeeds in cooling speculative mortgage growth

By Leith van Onselen The RBNZ’s latest mortgage data shows that household and mortgage credit growth has cooled significantly in New Zealand following loan-to-value ratio restrictions targeting investors. As shown in the next chart, New Zealand household borrowing has retraced sharply, recording annual growth of 5.7% in March: Most of New Zealand’s household debt is

21

Despite immigration pullback, NZ housing shortage worsens

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s chronic housing shortage continues to worsen, especially in Auckland, despite dwelling consents continuing to rise, according to Statistics New Zealand. There were 11,192 dwelling consents issued across Auckland in the year to March (up 9.7%), and 31,392 consents issued across New Zealand over the year (up 2.5%): Despite the

16

Property lobby negative gearing propaganda shifts to NZ

By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month, the New Zealand Government released an Issues Paper proposing to ‘ring-fencing’ investors’ losses on residential property so they cannot be offset against unrelated wage/salary income, in a bid to level the playing field between property investors and first home buyers. Today, the Property Institute has hit back, warning

3

Auckland house prices continue to fall

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for March, which revealed a 2.2% seasonally adjusted monthly decline in the national median house price, although prices were up 1.9% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 0.1% in March, with prices up 5.9% year-on-year. Looking at the major

7

NZ’s housing shortgage worsens despite immigration pullback

By Leith van Onselen Auckland’s chronic housing shortage continues to worsen, despite dwelling consents continuing to rise, according to Statistics New Zealand. There were 11,052 dwelling consents issued across Auckland in the year to February (up 10%), and 31,245 consents issued across New Zealand over the year (up 3.6%): Despite the pick-up, none of this

4

RBNZ holds cash rate at 1.75%

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has today left the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75% and noted that economic growth is expected to strengthen and the labour market tighten, despite the housing market being restrained. It also indicates that rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future

1

Poverty and housing the key concerns of Kiwi voters

By Leith van Onselen With New Zealand’s Labour-led coalition Government nearly six months old, Roy Morgan has released new polling showing that poverty and housing are now the primary concerns of New Zealand voters: Quantified thematic analysis of the verbatim responses of a nationally representative sample of 999 New Zealanders found the economy and things