New Zealand Economy

20

Add a third huge bubble city to your Aussie bank risk list

By Leith van Onselen CoreLogic has released its latest New Zealand Property Market & Economic Update, which paints a disturbing picture of Auckland’s housing market. First, population growth into Auckland has been extreme – driven by immigration – with the city’s population growing by 44,500 over the past year, accounting for nearly half of New

5

Population ponzi sinks New Zealand government

By Leith van Onselen With the general election scheduled for 23 September, things are starting to look bad for the recently promoted Prime Minister of New Zealand, Bill English, delivering a stark warning to Aussie politicians. Yesterday, Stuff.co.nz reported that the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has placed Bill English on 25% in the preferred prime

2

Australia’s kiwi exodus continues to moderate

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for February 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 71,333 people: According to Statistics New Zealand, “about a third of all migrant arrivals for the year were people coming to New Zealand

5

NZ Labour shows way on housing policy

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s shadow minister for housing, Labor’s Phil Twyford, continues to apply deep pressure to the National Government over housing affordability. Last year, Twyford called for the elimination of Auckland’s Rural Urban Boundary (RUB), as well as freeing-up density restrictions and creating a new mechanism for financing infrastructure – infrastructure bonds

0

NZ GDP per capita lower in Q4, but income rises

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has today released national accounts figures for the December quarter of 2016, with Gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 0.4% over the quarter to be up 3.1% year-on-year. However, GDP per capita fell by 0.2% in the December quarter to be up 0.9% year-on-year. Services drove the growth

6

NZ’s housing affordability troubles are all about Auckland

By Leith van Onselen Interest.co.nz’s David Chaston has produced some interesting charts comparing mortgage repayments to take home pay across New Zealand’s major markets over the past decade. At the national level, Chaston finds that mortgage affordability is actually better now than just prior to the GFC, courtesy of falling mortgage rates and the steady

2

Amid record immigration, NZ dwelling supply to slow

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Last week, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed, with the trend number of new homes consented decreasing 15% in the five months to January 2017: “Most

0

NZ house prices rise in January as “affordable” homes vanish

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for February, which revealed a 0.3% seasonally adjusted monthly rise in the national median house price, with prices up 14.1% year-on-year: Outside Auckland, house prices rose by 0.2% in February, with prices up 7.2% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities, Auckland’s median house

7

Mass immigration, falling supply, drives up NZ rents

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving the nation’s housing crisis by boosting dwelling supply continues to fail. In 2016, New Zealand added a whopping 100,000 residents, more than 70% of which came from net migration: The bubble hotspot of Auckland has been the primary recipient of the population

11

As NZ population booms, dwelling supply is falling

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Yesterday, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed, with trend number of new homes consented decreasing 15% in the five months to January 2017: “Most regions appear

17

NZ Treasury: Government lacking Auckland land supply plan

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply has already taken a hammering courtesy of record immigration easily eclipsing dwelling construction, leading to worsening housing shortages. Now an independent report prepared for Treasury that the Government tried to keep secret claims the Government lacks

1

NZ mortgage growth softens as macro-prudential bites

By Leith van Onselen The RBNZ released its monthly credit aggregates data, which showed New Zealand household borrowing continuing to retrace from September’s cyclical high, recording annual growth of 8.7% in January: Most of New Zealand’s household debt is driven by mortgages, which has also retraced slightly to 9.0% in the year to January 2017:

4

Housing the dominant concern of Kiwi voters

By Leith van Onselen With New Zealand headed to the polls on 23 September 2017, Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released special polling confirming voter angst over housing, with 26% of respondents citing housing as most important issue facing the nation, comprising 15% most concerned about affordability/increasing prices and 11% concerned about homelessness/housing shortages. These

0

Housing pressure intensifies for NZ Government

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering in the lead-up to the September 23 General Election. Last week it was Statistics New Zealand’s latest demographic data, which revealed that Auckland’s population had grown by around 200,000 (over 13%)

2

Australia’s kiwi exodus passes peak

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for January 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 71,305 people: As noted by Interest.co.nz: Statistics NZ said 56,231 arriving migrants said they intended to settle in Auckland during the

0

Population ponzi drives up Auckland rents

By Leith van Onselen Last week, Statistics New Zealand released demographic data revealing that Auckland’s population had grown by around 200,000 (over 13%) in just four years, with the region’s population also projected to grow by between 37% (low growth scenario) and 75% (high growth scenario) between 2013 and 2043: In addition to driving-up house

6

NZ house prices to fall 12%

By Leith van Onselen After last year forecasting an 11% fall in New Zealand house prices by 2019, economic analysis and forecasting firm, Infometrics, has forecast a 12% decline in house values by 2020 on the back of falling population growth (net migration) and rising interest rates: “Mortgage holders in Auckland look particularly vulnerable to

1

Auckland population projections reveal choking growth

By Leith van Onselen The National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply has taken another hammering, with new population projections from Statistics New Zealand estimating that Auckland’s population will rise between 37% (low growth scenario) and 75% (high growth scenario) between 2013 and 2043: In number terms, the projections equate

2

Suddenly, NZ’s record household debt no longer matters

By Leith van Onselen You know it’s an election year when New Zealand’s Finance Minister and senior banking officials seemingly perform a 180-degree turn to downplay the risks relating to New Zealand’s record household debt and over-valued housing. From Interest.co.nz: ‘Move along, there’s nothing to see here’ appears to be the attitude of some of

9

Aussie banks exposed to double bubbles

By Leith van Onselen A day after ANZ bank warned that Auckland’s housing shortage would worsen in the period ahead, ratings agency Standard and Poors (S&P) has followed suit. From Interest.co.nz: The credit rating agency estimates a housing supply shortage of between 30,000 and 40,000 dwellings in Auckland. “With banks reporting a tightening in lending standards for

5

Auckland’s housing shortage will get worse

By Leith van Onselen I wrote a few weeks back how the National Government in New Zealand has backed the wrong housing policy in focusing solely on boosting housing supply, while ignoring altogether demand-side drivers like record immigration (brought about, in part by the Government’s own policies), tax lurks, and speculative foreign investment. This view

7

NZ house prices plunge in January

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for January, which revealed a seasonal 5.0% monthly fall in the national median house price, with prices up 9.4% year-on-year: Outside Auckland, house prices fell by 5.6% in January, with prices up 9.8% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities, Auckland’s median house price