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MB Fund Podcast: China to the rescue again?

This week’s LIVE webinar (12:30pm AEST, Thursday 18 April) – we look at recent numbers out of China, it’s subsequent investment implications and how we are adjusting portfolios to take advantage. Join MB Fund’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith and Tim Fuller as we discuss recent global data points and how

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Easter Long Weekend Links: 19-22 April 2019

  Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Mapping the Global Migration of Millionaires – Visual Capitalist China and Russia Buy Gold as US Keeps Gold Prices Artificially Low – Bunker Basics The Bank of England gives a masterclass on the “very real” risks of climate change – Qz Will we survive the next financial crisis? – Politico Belarus President

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Macro Afternoon

A sea of red across Asian stocks markets today in reaction to overnight caution on Wall Street with the latest unemployment print locally causing the ASX200 to slip while Japanese markets have given up almost all of their recent gains as Yen strengthened on the risk off move. The Shanghai Composite is set to close lower

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SEEK hoses strong ABS jobs

Via BI: As seen in the table below from employment website SEEK, job advertisements for property workers are now also falling fast. Seek has recorded the percentage change in advertisements on its platform in the year to March. The downturn in the housing market has had a major impact on demand for workers with ads

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Where is Australia’s population policy?

Cross-posted from Independent Australia: Morrison Government’s population plan “capped” permanent migration at 160,000 but its 2019 Budget uncapped net migration to 270,000. This has not been challenged by the Labor Opposition and so, our steep population growth is removed from the political contest, ignoring the environmental and electoral objections. UP UNTIL CHRISTCHURCH, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s muscular migration brand was “Stop

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A detailed look at business job intentions

Via the NAB quarterly business survey: Both business conditions and confidence declined in the quarter. Conditions continued its downward trend since peaking in early 2018 and is now only just above average, suggesting the loss of momentum in the business sector has continued into early 2019. Confidence and forward orders turned negative in the quarter

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CoreLogic: High-rise apartment risks building

CoreLogic’s Cameron Kusher has released a research note looking at dwelling commencement trends across Australia’s various sub-components, which shows that risks are skewed towards high-rise construction: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released the quarterly Building Activity data for December 2018. The release is a treasure-trove of data and includes information on dwelling commencements,

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ABS employment in detail: defying gravity

By Leith van Onselen As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for March, which registered a solid 25,700 increase in total employment but a 0.1% increase in the headline unemployment rate (to 5.0%) because of a 0.1% rise in labour force participation. In trend terms, the unemployment

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Final auction clearances remain stillborn

By Leith van Onselen Last weekend, CoreLogic released its preliminary auction clearance rates, which revealed the following results: Today, CoreLogic has released its final auction results, which reported a 5.0% decline in the final national auction clearance rate to 52.2% – slightly below last week’s final clearance rate of 52.6%: As you can see, Sydney’s final

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MB Fund Webinar: What does China’s credit deluge mean?

This week’s LIVE webinar (12:30pm AEST, Thursday 18 April) we look at recent numbers out of China and examine what this means for Australian and global investment trends. Join MB Fund’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith and Tim Fuller as we discuss recent global data points and how we are

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Jobs report still firm

ABS Labor Force is out for March and the news is still pretty good: MARCH KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased 20,700 to 12,790,000 persons. Full-time employment increased 18,000 to 8,781,800 persons and part-time employment increased 2,700 to 4,008,200 persons. Unemployment increased 3,000 to 675,700 persons. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%. Participation rate remained

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Sensible Tim Storer seeks Treasury repair at exit

Via The Australian: Senator Storer said if an ­incoming Labor government dragged the Senate back before June 30 to ram through part of its policy platform before the composition of the upper house changes following the election, he would attempt to push the government to ban Treasury costings of opposition parties. “Treasury and all other

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UBS: Avoid banks as NAB warns

Another bank profit warning: UBS remains highly skeptical: …underlying trends are likely to remain very soft and deteriorating: (1) Volume growth should continue to slow as the credit squeeze continues and banks move to improve expense verification (reduced reliance on the HEM benchmark). (2) A bounce in NIM is expected following mortgage repricing. But how

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CBA Flash PMI edges up but sends big warning

Via the CBA Flash PMI: The Commonwealth Bank Flash Services Business Activity Index is designed to provide a timely indication of changes in business activity in the Australian service sector economy as a whole. Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business activity on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration. Services business

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More Chinese stimulus coming

Via Bloomie: Officials are drafting measures to bolster sales of cars and electronics, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorized to discuss the plan. That news coincided with data showing a 6.4 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter — beating economists’ estimates. China’s latest

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Scummo losing the tax debate

The world’s most boring election continues. Via The Australian comes the cost carbon mitigation: Australian businesses could be forced to spend more than $25 billion on international carbon credits to meet Labor’s 45 per cent emissions reduction targets by 2030, jeopardising one of Bill Shorten’s fundamental election pillars, which he declared would have no cost to

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another mixed session on stocks overnight with European bourses advancing again while Wall Street stalled due to a drop in health care stocks from the “Mediscare for all” and a slump in oil prices. The USD firmed slightly against the undollars, particularly gold which made another new daily low while CPI prints

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Australia faces increasing competition for international students

By Leith van Onselen While Australia may currently be a preferred destination for international students, as evidenced by nearly half a million student visas on issue at the end of 2018: Competition for international students is heating-up, both from competitor countries and the source nations. For example, the Canadian Government is planning to expand its

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Solving the RBA’s employment puzzle

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate. Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to