In MB’s 2017 Christmas special report, entitled “The Great Housing Reckoning”, we anticipated a difficult 2018 for Australians with “an intensification of the per capita income recession that is the essence of the nation’s budding lost decade”. While this view was largely correct, we also argued that “house prices… are unlikely to crash”, instead forecasting
It’s the latest refrain of the housing spruikers. That the house price correction is “orderly” and therefore under control. I’ll report and you decide. If the correction were “orderly”, and therefore consistent with historical price falls, then at this stage it would already be flattening out instead of steepening markedly with Sydney now falling 3.4% per quarter
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Population Research Institute (APRI) has released an update to its November report on overseas students, entitled Australia’s higher education overseas student industry revisited, which analyses the Commonwealth Department of Education’s newly released 2017 student enrolment data, which revealed a “striking further increase in the share of commencing overseas students”. Below
By Leith van Onselen The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has released alarming new data showing a massive decline in affordable rental options across Melbourne. While the annual growth in median rents across Metropolitan Melbourne moderated to 3.2% in the year to September: It remains well above inflation (2.2%) as well as
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy series for November, which revealed a 0.3% surge in the national vacancy rate over the month and a 0.1% increase over the year: Over the year, increases in vacancies were recorded in Sydney (+1.1%), Melbourne (+0.1%), Darwin (+1.2%), and Hobart (+0.1%), whereas Adelaide (-0.2%),
The ACCC was out with its gas market update yesterday and not once, not once in a 120 page document, did it mention the word “reservation”. Despite this hilarious chart: 71% of east coast demand is the gas export cartel. If we held just 10% of that back then all our energy problems would be
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The stock market is on pace for its worst December since the Great Depression – CNBC It Was Easy for New Hedge Funds to Raise Money in 2018. Making It Was Harder – WSJ US credit markets dry up as volatility rattles investors – FT Jeffrey Gundlach says the
A very dour mood across in Asia in response to the overnight slump on Wall Street, although the mangnitude wasn’t the same, the intent of taking risk off the table before the FOMC meeting is paralleled here. The Aussie dollar finally found some life but it’s playing catchup as USD is sold off across the
Via The Australian: The NSW Labor Party’s head office in Sydney has been raided by the Independent Commission Against Corruption today as part of an investigation into ALP donations. Officials of the NSW ICAC are believed to have searched the ALP’s Sussex Street office for financial documents linked to an annual party fundraising event called
Via Goldman: Question is whether EUR/USD is ready to resume downtrend everything down to the Aug. ’18 low was impulsive in nature. From August into year-end, the market entered a corrective phase, one that retraced/has so far held 38.2% at 1.1780. So far none of what has transpired on the recent decline from September has
Another one bites the dust:
Via AFR: The sex scandal plaguing the Nationals has intensified after MP Andrew Broad quit Parliament altogether. Moments after his leader Michael McCormack suggested he “consider his future”, Mr Broad released a statement saying he would not recontest his safe Victoria rural seat of Mallee at the election, due in May. This will avoid another
By Leith van Onselen Western Australia’s mining sector continues to soften-up the government to open the floodgates for temporary foreign workers to fill invented ‘skills shortages’ because of reported rising wage costs and an imaginary lack of workers. From The West Australian: A growing skills shortage is threatening to derail billions of dollars in mining and
From QLD Resources today: Queensland has given the green light to a new Surat Basin based project which will see more gas made available for the domestic market. “Last month I announced that a joint venture between Santos and Shell had won the right to explore for gas in Surat Basin – gas which will
Via HIA: HIA New Home Sales look to be finishing the year a little more positively than previously evident. Following a string of weak results, private detached house sales increase by 3.6 per cent in November 2018. Encouragingly, the monthly rise was geographically widespread: sales increased in Victoria (7.3 per cent); Queensland (2.1 per cent);
Jeff Gundlach last night declared a global bear market: As the oil patch and US housing fray, the Fed is one and done for a last hike. So, I think Gundlach is wrong on US bond yields. On the trade war he is probably right though there is some upside risk as panicked economic managers
Minutes from the silly bastards at the RBA: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that conditions had remained positive, particularly in the major advanced economies, where growth had remained around or above potential and labour markets had continued to tighten. However, growth in a number of economies had
Labor appears set on an attempt to fix low wages via re-regulation rather than limiting immigration. Yesterday we got this, via The Australian: Bill Shorten says he’ll come down “like a tonne of bricks” on employers using 457 visas to fill jobs, rather than training Australians. He promises to work with the Australian trade union movement and
By Leith van Onselen With Australia’s permanent migration program already an insane 180,000 in 2017-18 – more than double the level at the turn of the century: And net overseas migration (NOM) running at more than triple the historical average, which is projected to continue for decades to come: Labor’s national conference agreed to effectively double
Via The Australian: The corporate regulator is squaring up for a responsible lending case against Westpac Bank in May, after an embarrassing setback in the Federal Court last month. The Australian understands the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and Westpac will now face a case management meeting on April 12 and then attend an eight
By Leith van Onselen Following on from this morning’s post on the NSW Office of State Revenue’s (OSR) latest stamp duty data, which revealed a $1.2 billion (16%) decline in receipts in the year to October: The NSW Treasury has this morning released its Mid-Year Budget Update, which recorded a slight downgrade in overall stamp
By Leith van Onselen A NSW parliamentary review into WestConnex has slammed the project for lacking transparency and failing to meet best practice requirements: WestConnex has had a significant and pronounced impact on local communities and families. This has undoubtedly been a very challenging time for those affected… The committee has questions regarding the transparency of
The Australian dollar is holding up this morning: Bonds are bid and close to break out at the long end: XJO is down, down. Although not at new lows today it has broken support and looks headed lower: Big Iron is down but not too bad: Big Gas is in trouble as oil goes lower:
By Leith van Onselen Acadata has released its latest house price results for the UK, which shows that house price growth has fallen to its slowest level since April 2012, falling in real terms: House prices largely continue to flatline, and the rate of annual growth has fallen consistently since August. It now stands at
By Leith van Onselen May’s Federal Budget contained various measures aimed at keeping older Australians in their homes, including: billions of dollars in funding for thousands of extra home-care packages; extending the Pensioner Work Bonus scheme, giving older Australians the ability to earn more money without affecting their benefits; and extending the Pension Loans Scheme
By Leith van Onselen With mass immigration opponent, Luke Foley, resigning from the NSW Labor Party’s leadership earlier last month, I was hoping that new leader Michael Daley would maintain the rage against the mass immigration influx that is destroying liveability in Sydney: Sadly, early indications are not good. Last month, Michael Daley appeared on
Via The Guardian: More than half of voters in the latest Guardian Essential poll believe Bill Shorten and Labor will win the next federal election. Only 21% think the Morrison government can recover from a horror year, and prevail at the polls in 2019. The disillusionment of Australian voters is also palpable in the final opinion survey
Via The Australian: Scott Morrison will unveil $10.6 billion in tax cuts and targeted spending before next year’s election in a last-ditch effort to recast his government’s fortunes. With Newspoll showing the Coalition facing a crushing defeat, the Prime Minister will rely on the best budget numbers in a decade, revealed in yesterday’s mid-year economic
By Chris Becker Caution has been downgraded to uncertainty with stock markets selling off sharply overnight after what looked like a good bounce here in Asia yesterday. US stocks fell over 2% with US 10 year Treasury yields now well below the 2.9% level, dragging the USD lower against all the majors except Aussie. Recapping Asia’s
Via Vertical Group: Despite Mounting Signs of a Slowdown in China’s Economy, We Do Not Believe Big Gov. Stimulus Will Rescue Investors this Time. China’s total social financing (“TSF”), the broadest measure of new credit, was lower than necessary in Nov. That is, despite beating Cons. ests., and rising 105% from Oct, total credit
Iron ore prices for December 17, 2018: Spot up. Paper down. Steel stalled. Port stocks still falling. It’s normal seasonal strength. Look to February for the next break in prices.
