Mark McCrindle: Mass immigration wrecking housing affordability

By Leith van Onselen In November last year, social researcher Mark McCrindle projected that Sydney’s population could hit 9 million people by 2051, courtesy of mass immigration: Sydney is on track to reach nine million people by 2051, nearly three million more than predicted in 1998. “If we’re wondering why our cities are groaning with

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Big Iron drags ASX into the pit

The Aussie dollar remains weak during the day: Bonds are bid: XJO is off moderately: Dalian is weeeak: Big Iron ore is getting shellacked. FMG is still shaping beautifully for a downside break through $4.50: Big Gas is marking time. Still a sell: Same with Big Gold: Big Sleazy is holding up OK today: Big Puswad


Suncorp hikes mortgage rates on rising “funding costs”

Via The Australian: Suncorp on Tuesday said it would be hitting owner occupier borrowers with a five basis point increase, which would leave them with a standard variable rate of 5.6 per cent. Investors will face an 8 basis point hike to standard variable loans, taking the rate to 6.07 per cent. Borrowers with interest-only


RBA minutes yawn

Via the RBA: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that GDP growth in most of Australia’s major trading partners had risen to be above its five-year average over 2017 and that this momentum appeared to have been maintained into 2018. Global GDP growth had picked up to be


Uber fatality the end for autonomous vehicles?

Via Bloomie: Uber Technologies Inc. halted autonomous vehicle tests after one of its cars struck and killed a woman in Tempe, Arizona, in what is likely the first pedestrian fatality involving the technology. The 49-year-old woman, Elaine Herzberg, was crossing the road outside of a crosswalk when the Uber vehicle operating in autonomous mode under the


Saul Eslake slams demand-side housing policy stimulus

By Leith van Onselen Economist Saul Eslake has told the Australian Securities & Investments Commission’s (ASIC) annual forum that policies aimed at helping residential investment – such as negative gearing and allowing self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) to borrow and invest in residential property – have helped contribute to housing unaffordability, as well as facilitated the


Coalition in last ditch attempt to pass company tax cuts

By Leith van Onselen Finance Minister Mathias Cormann continues to claim that corporate tax cuts are necessary to ensure that Australian businesses are internationally competitive. Accordingly, the Government will seek a Senate vote on the company tax cut package within two weeks so that the measure can be included in the May Budget. In order


Developer lobby begs Ponzi Turnbull to calm Sydney revolt

After Victoria’s lobby builder’s freaked out a few days ago about being unable meet the demand for population growth homes, a NSW equivalent has today exposed just how shaky is the entire growth model, via Domainfax: …the Urban Taskforce, a group representing the development industry, said the plan did not expressly say how it would


Government told to hit black economy hard in Budget

By Leith van Onselen A report from KPMG has advised that targeting the black economy could “conservatively” generate revenue of nearly $6 billion for the Federal Budget, including an extra $2.5 billion in business taxes and an additional $1.2 billion in goods and services tax revenue. KPMG’s recommendations include banning income tax deductions for wages


Bill Evans on the driver’s of a weak Australian dollar

Nice video below from Westpac’s Bill Evans summarising his recent Asian tour: I agree with pretty much all of it except I’m more bearish, more quickly on the AUD. FYI, MB has launched a new Australian dollar forecast index which will be updated regularly to keep you abreast of market outlooks. See it here. ———————————————————– David Llewellyn-Smith is


Friday is tariff day!

Via WaPo: President Trump is preparing to impose a package of $60 billion in annual tariffs against China, following through on a long-time threat that he says will punish China for intellectual property infringement and create more American jobs. The tariff package, which Trump plans to unveil by Friday, was confirmed by four senior administration


Water security should be front and centre of population debate

By Leith van Onselen Last month, Dr Jonathan Sobels – a senior research fellow at the University of South Australia and the author of a key 2010 report prepared for the Department of Immigration entitled Long-term physical implications of net overseas migration: Australia in 2050 – gave a brilliant incisive interview on ABC’s Radio National


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Stocks fell sharply overnight as the data exploitation Facebook scandal widened, the social media site losing over 7% dragging other tech stocks down as European authorities also circle around heavyweights Twitter and Alphabet. Pound Sterling soared higher on Brexit negotiations while other currencies are nervous surrounding the continuing mess (or clusterfuck depending on your language


Tech wreck

DXY was weak last night: AUD was too against DMs: Better against EMs: Gold firmed: Oil too: Base metals were hit: And miners clubbed. The post-2015 bounce is done: EM stocks were hit: Junk too: But Treasuries still sold: Not bunds: Stocks took it for the team: There’s no broad risk off here. It’s more


Australia’s Greenspan moment arrives

In October 2008, Alan Greenspan confessed: Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief…. The whole intellectual edifice [of risk-management in derivative markets]…collapsed last summer.” Asked whether his ideological bias led him to faulty judgments, he answered: “Yes,


ACCC warns on Do-nothing energy guarantee

Via the AFR: Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Rod Sims has warned the Turnbull government’s National Energy Guarantee could stifle competition in the energy sector or push up prices for businesses and consumers if it was not properly designed. While the Energy Security Board said competition issues could not be given further consideration until


Gittins, Shann, Aird, Carr demand immigration cut

By Leith van Onselen Over the weekend, News.com.au’s editor-at-large, Joe Hildebrand, proclaimed anyone wanting to lower Australia’s immigration program back towards historical levels is a “racist” and resorted to the usual flawed arguments to support current turbo-charged levels: When the right calls for cuts to immigration it’s called “racism” but when the left does it


Population ponzi causes another shocking decline in Melbourne affordable rentals

By Leith van Onselen The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has released alarming new data showing a massive decline in affordable rental options across Melbourne, as well as escalating rents. The annual growth in median rents across Metropolitan Melbourne rose to 4.5% in the year to December – way above both inflation


Kouk: Next election is a chance to reverse the War on Youth

Via The Kouk: For younger Australians who are increasingly disaffected and angry about the growth of intergenerational inequality in housing, superannuation and education, there will be a clear choice at the next election. With its latest policy on the tax treatment of dividend imputation, Labor has added to its policy agenda that promises to tackle


Links 20 March 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Twitter is reportedly planning to ban cryptocurrency ads – The Verge Trump’s plan that would blow up the WTO – Axios A Deeper Look at the Flattening Yield Curve – WSJ Oil Hedge Fund BBL Looks to Launch $1 Billion Macro Fund – WSJ Investors in Bitcoin and other


Macro Afternoon

Quite a mixed start to the week here in Asia with stock markets changing losses for gains throughout the day in reaction to weekend news, both political and macro related. Its not just the Trump Administration under the spotlight, but PM Abe’s cabinet in Japan, where their prevalence for a cheaper Yen is not winning


ANZ admits it ignored home borrowers’ ability to repay

By Leith van Onselen From The AFR comes the latest installment from the Banking Royal Commission, this time ANZ: Counsel assisting Rowena Orr, QC, revealed the bank does not examine the expenses of its home loan customers… “There is no reference in any of the eleven steps you’ve identified in paragraph 54 to verifying customers’


Australia walks blindly into another secretive mega-trade deal

By Leith van Onselen Following the recent signing of the 11-member Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal in Chile, the Turnbull Government has confirmed that Australia will head into a new secretive 16-member mega trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is expected to be concluded by year’s end. From The AFR: [Prime