The market is oscillating between value and growth months. In May it was the turn of value portfolios (including ours) to outperform. Our direct equity portfolios beat benchmarks by over 1% on the month and our tactical asset portfolios finished up between 1% and 2.7%. We have, however, called time on the value trade. The
For months we have witnessed Australia’s employer groups lobby the federal government for easier access to foreign workers due to purported crippling labour shortages. However, when it comes to actually paying more to attract Australian workers into their respective industries, they are firmly opposed. In the lead-up to yesterday afternoon’s minimum wage decision by the
The Australian property market continues to rebound hard out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Following a 2.6% decline in dwelling values across the five major capital city markets between 15 March (the unofficial start of the pandemic) and 13 October 2020 (the bottom), values have since risen by 13.1% across the combined five major capital city
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Fed Cannot Control Its Easy-Money Monster – NY Times World’s Bubbliest Housing Markets Flash 2008 Style Warnings – Bloomberg Stability of collusion and quality differentiation: a Nash bargaining approach – Bruegel Nobel Prize winning economist Muhammad Yunus says 2050 may be too late to save planet. – Yahoo
Asian share markets are mixed again with Chinese bourses continuing to fall, with Japanese stocks joining in while local issues are unchanged. The USD continues to strengthen against the major currencies as volatility drops going into tonight’s Federal Reserve meeting. Gold is trying to lift off the floor after selling off overnight and is slowly
The ABC has published another story touting tiny houses as “one way young people can afford real estate”: For Lucy and Jonty, the cost of their tiny house was around $120,000, including solar panels. That compares to the median Hobart dwelling value of $574,543, according to CoreLogic figures from May… It means they’re now committed
In March two key reforms came into effect designed to take the steam out of New Zealand’s fast inflating property market. First, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reintroduced loan-to-value ratio (LVR) mortgage restrictions, which from 1 March 2021 required both investors and owner-occupiers to hold bigger deposits: Second, and more importantly, the New Zealand
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for April 2021, which confirmed that net migration into Australia remains negative. There were 23,290 net permanent & long-term departures in the 13 months since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, representing the first time that net arrivals have been
The contract to build Australia’s new submarine fleet is expected to be on the agenda when Prime Minister Scott Morrison holds talks with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Independent senator Rex Patrick – who served 11 years as a navy submariner and worked in the defence industry for two decades – has called for
The introduction of the trans-Tasman travel bubble on 18 April 2021 has boosted international travel, according to new provisional travel statistics from the ABS. Arrivals of non-Australian citizens doubled in May to 71,060 from 35,210 in April: This was driven by a 32,000 increase in arrivals from New Zealand: In a similar vein, departures of
The Bear Traps report goes full inflation. The few missing facts include that it was Republicans that ravaged the US budget, no mention of China, no reference to vast deflationary forces. This is Australian extremism not analysis. Ironically, this contrarian is a great contrarian signal. Sell metals! In 1787, with remarkable foresight, Scottish historian Alexander
By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA Key Points The ABS monthly labour force survey excludes overseas residents in Australia and therefore the survey has not accurately captured the impact of the international border closure on the labour market. The ABS quarterly labour account includes all people who contribute to Australian economic activity
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence increased 0.3% last week as Melbourne’s 2-week lockdown came to an end, although restrictions such as masks in public places and on travel and gatherings remain. #ausecon #ausretail @arindam_chky @DavidPlank12 @roymorganonline pic.twitter.com/BgIde4If0X — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) June 15, 2021
SQM Research has released its rental vacancy report for May, which reports a national rental vacancy rate of only 1.8% – the lowest level of vacancies since October 2012. Rental vacancies are zipped tight everywhere except Melbourne and Sydney, which have been hit hardest by the loss of international students, as illustrated clearly in the
Westpac with the note: • The six-month annualised growth rate in the WestpacMelbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, eased from 2.86% in April to 1.47% in May. The growth rate in the Leading Index has normalised significantly over the
The OECD has blamed Australia’s restrictive planning and zoning for driving the fourth sharpest property price increase in the developed world over the past 20 years: Paris-based OECD director of policy studies in the economics department, Luiz de Mello, said low interest rates had contributed to rising house prices. But restrictive regulations were also a
As expected, China continues its systemic push towards tighter credit and economic restructuring away from construction. This time it’s wealth management products, an old favourite for developers to raise cash: Highly rated WMP will be prevented from buying junk debt from developers. This addresses the underlying duration mismatch. $400bn in junk debt will need to
In March the federal government released a 327-page report from the National Agricultural Labour Advisory Committee, which explicitly admitted that the agricultural industry’s overreliance on cheap migrant labour is bad for productivity and unsustainable: Australia’s main competitors in agriculture are either ahead or running very close. In many ways, Australia is at a crossroads. Either its
The ferrous complex held on June 15, 2021 as many other commodities rolled into the big plunge. Spot was stable, paper up a bit, steel down: Steel was actually down yesterday but I didn’t have prices for a few days. The news is another accident, this time in China where more supply has come off
Forex last night was a reflection of weakening US data, fading inflation and diving commodities. DXY was firm as was EUR: Australian dollar was hit on all major DM crosses: Oil is to the moon on strong US inventory draws. Gold is caput: Base metals were hammered: Big miners too: EMs stocks were hit: Junk
Mixed economic news overnight from the US saw Wall Street wobble and turn away from yet another record session high with the latest retail sales much weaker than expected. Currency markets were mixed although Pound Sterling and Aussie dollar fell back against USD while Euro was contained yet again. Bond markets saw a slight increase
Labor knows well the power of mining. The Rudd Government was rolled when it tried to tax it. Now Labor is seeking to mobilise the same power to its own service, and that of Beijing. A few weeks ago, the leader of the opposition, Anthony Albanese blew a loud dog whistle to Australian mining. Actually,
The ABS yesterday released its property price data for the March quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at $7.9 trillion, whereas the total housing stock was valued at $8.3 trillion. As shown below, the ratio of the dwelling stock owned by households against Australian GDP hit a record 4.0 times as at
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Uneven vaccination rates are creating a new economic divide – The Economist The socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa – Bruegel Walton Family, World’s Richest, Raises $2.1 Billion From Walmart Holdings – Yahoo Winners and Losers of the Work-From-Home Revolution – The Atlantic Wall
Asian share markets have diverged with Chinese bourses (except the satellite ASX200) dropping while Japanese stocks are helped along by a much lower Yen as USD continues to strengthen against the major currencies. Gold is struggling after selling off overnight and is barely moving at the $1866USD per ounce level with traders of all sorts
Roy Morgan’s business confidence survey hit a seven year high in May, increasing 4pts (+3.2%) to 129.3 – the highest reading since January 2014 (131.5). This follows a whopping 39.4pts (+43.8%) increase on May 2020 when Australia was gripped by the coronavirus pandemic: Business Confidence in May 2021 was 15.5pts above the long-term average of
A new report from Knight Frank Research shows that the total value of offshore investment in Australian residential property fell below $500 million in 2020 – the lowest level in seven years. This was a key driver of a 19.6% decline in property developers’ investment in residential sites, which fell to just $4 billion amid
Deloitte Access Economics is upbeat about the outlook for Australian retailers, forecasting that consumer spending will remain strong as the domestic economy continues to rebound and COVID-19 restrictions ease. The firm’s quarterly Retail Forecast report notes that lockdowns and travel restrictions have boosted retailers’ sales, which should result in a “bumper year” for the sector
Nataxis with the latest on Bitcoin: Bitcoin: adjustment nearly over? Since mid-May, Bitcoin and crypto assets have been in crisis. After a high at $63,500, Bitcoin collapsed to almost $30,000, Ethereum went from a high of $4,400 to a low of $2,000. The capitalisation of crypto assets has fallen from a high of $2 tr
Earlier this year, the National Farmers Federation (NFF) called for a Dedicated Agriculture Visa program ease purported chronic labour shortages across the sector: To provide a stable and sustainable workforce for agriculture that is fair and equitable for both workers and employers, the NFF supports the introduction of a Dedicated Agriculture Visa program… providing a
