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Macro Afternoon

Chinese bourses are dragging down the risk sentiment into a defensive mode given the late poor lead on Wall Street overnight, as the Brexit drama rolls on again. The possibility of an extension to Brexit to even early next year is providing a little bit of hope but both Euro and Pound Sterling are steady

Latest posts

22

Kouk sees Futureboom!

Futureboom is back for the Kouk: Every month or so, I undertake a total revamp of my assessment and forecasts for the economy. With this wipe-the-slate-clean revamp, I take account of the most up to date data, incorporate policy changes and I build in new judgments on the outlook for the global economy. And so

7

Treasury zombie eats another good brain

From new Treasury Secretary Stephen Kennedy today in parliament: “There are reasons to be optimistic about the outlook. I do see the economy strengthening from here. Medium-term fiscal frameworks [which] reflect an apparent short-term economic weakness or unsustainably strong growth are best responded to by monetary policy. In periods of crisis there is a case

2

Australia’s not so private health insurers bleed taxpayers

With the percentage of Australians between the ages of 20 to 39 with private health insurance falling from 40% to 34% over the past five years, and older Australians claiming more than ever, private health insurance providers have demanded government subsidies to keep the industry viable. However, the health program director at the Grattan Institute,

10

Even vultures won’t touch stinking Melbourne McMansion carcass

At Domain: Fuelling the forecast rise in defaults is a reluctance by the non-bank lenders to extend credit. Some have now drawn up “no go” lending zones across Sydney and Melbourne. Allen Walker, a partner at receiver and manager Cor Cordis, said he is anticipating more business will come from loan defaults in the coming

12

ABC of greed: steals $23m from workers as chief pockets $1.1m

Via CPSU’s REPORT INTO CASUAL UNDERPAYMENT AT THE AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION: Executive summary The Community and Public Sector Union is the largest of the ABC staff unions, with coverage of approximately 3,000 ABC workers. Our union has been advocating for the ABC and its workers since the ABC’s inception in 1932. The CPSU was also

48

Victoria’s new budget crisis: “massive” traffic fine collapse

Anyone living in Melbourne would know that we live in a nanny state. Speed limits have been lowered across the board with fixed ‘road safety’ cameras planted strategically to fine unwary motorists for travelling a few kilometres per hour above the lowered limit. Along with stamp duty, the Victorian Budget has also become reliant upon

7

The big four parasites of kleptocracy

Via Michael West: A former school teacher from Copacabana Beach has just locked horns with the four most powerful private institutions on the planet. And they don’t like it. The shoddy audit standards, massive government consulting business and global tax avoidance operations of the Big Four accounting firms, EY, KPMG, Deloitte and PwC, now finally

17

Melbourne’s mega sprawl non-solution for hyper immigration

It’s amazing watching the idiotic non-solutions emerge for Australia’s hyper immigration-fuelled population growth. With Melbourne’s population already having increased by around 1.6 million people this century, and projected to balloon by another 5.2 million people over the next 48 years: University academics have proposed the hilariously stupid plan of building a series or regional cities

4

Fair Work reveals mass exploitation of migrant workers

The Fair Work Ombudsman’s latest annual report shows a “significant increase” in wage theft, especially among migrant workers: In 2018–19, we conducted 1256 investigations into more complex or significant matters (involving vulnerable workers, serious non-compliance and/or uncooperative employers)… The overall compliance rate for our audits for the year was 45%, with the most common contraventions

1

Quant quake 2.0?

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The “quant quake” is happening again. Overnight, and indeed, over the past week, we have seen a very sharp rotation into value factors and out of momentum factors. This follows on from the sharp rotation we saw from late August to early September. To be sure, there

14

Aussie gas imports “absurd”

Via Samantha Hepburn is the director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin University: Right now, two projects have been proposed to import gas from overseas to supply eastern Australia. This is an absurd prospect. Australia is a resource-rich country, and exports more gas than any other nation. Why then,

2

Foghorn: More tax cuts now!

Terry McCrann is back with his own brand of abuse today: Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is dead right not to throw away his Budget surplus by embarking on another 2009-style spending binge. But he is just as precisely dead wrong not to seize the opportunity to borrow a lot — and I mean a lot —

24

Trump impeachment odds firm

Via Politico: The top U.S. envoy to Ukraine told House impeachment investigators on Tuesday that President Donald Trump sought to withhold critical military aid to Ukraine and refuse a White House meeting with the country’s president until it pursued politically-motivated investigations into Trump’s rivals. The diplomat, William Taylor, painted a damaging portrait of events that

15

Why do central banks ignore asset prices?

Via FTAlphaville’s Claire Jones: Comments on our articles about central banks’ attempts to fix the global economy through printing trillions in whatever currency tend to be a bloodbath. The prime swipe being that policymakers are wrong to carry on unleashing more and more stimulus on the grounds that they are falling short of their inflation targets

0

More CPI previews

UBS was dovish. Damien Boey at Credit Suisse is hawkish: Ahead of next week’s much anticipated CPI release, we thought it would be interesting to see what the RBA’s core inflation models are saying right now. As background, the RBA models core inflation using the following variables: The size of the output gap. Unit labour

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight risk markets were relatively stable due to the absence of any major catalysts or economic news, although Wall Street wilted later in the session as European stocks tread water. Only Pound Sterling stood out on currency markets, dropping as the UK Parliament voted for Brexit once more while bond yields also

0

Daily iron ore price update (Vale schmale)

Texture from Reuters: China’s iron ore futures extended gains for a third session, buoyed by continued supply worries, after Brazil’s Vale closed a tailing dam earlier this month, and lowered full year iron ore and pellet sales guidance The increase in prices was curbed by cooling demand as China is coming into autumn-winter heating season,

2

Australian dollar hit by Brexit

DXY recovered some poise last night as EUR reversed: As is common, the AUD followed EUR: It took a beating vs EMs: Gold is hanging on: Oil was firmer on OPEC bluster: Copper fell: Miners lifted: With EM stocks: And junk: As Treasuries were bid: And bunds: Plus Aussie bonds: Stocks eased: Westpac has the

15

Get ready for another structural housing shortage

Australians are going to have to get used to living in more cramped and crowded accommodation as housing supply once again falls below rampant immigration-fuelled population growth. That’s the view of Australia’s largest listed developer, Stockland, who has warned that housing shortages are developing from coast-to-coast: The country’s largest listed residential developer Stockland has warned

3

Malaysian scammers abuse Australia’s electronic visa system

Another report has emerged highlighting how Malaysians are manipulating Australia’s electronic travel authority (ETA) visa system to stay long-term in Australia: Australia’s population of 64,600 lapsed visa holders is more than triple the size of last year’s refugee intake, newly released Immigration data has revealed. Malaysian visa overstayers were the most highly represented, with around

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Australia taps new ‘boom’ market for international students

Over recent months, it has become apparent that Australia’s six year boom in international students is under threat: Australia’s three main sources of international students – China, India and Nepal – are all facing stiff headwinds that will crimp enrolments in the years ahead. As noted previously, Chinese student visa applications have already begun to

11

Links 23 October 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: World economy is sleepwalking into a new financial crisis, warns former Bank of England governor – The Guardian Goldman warns corporate buybacks are plummeting, ending a big source of buying power for the market – CNBC Blain: “I Am Convinced The Debt Markets Are About To Blow Up” –

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Macro Afternoon

A sea of green on stock markets across Asia although not as substantial as that on overnight markets, with Japanese bourses closed for a holiday providing a muddy picture to overall sentiment.  Commodities were relatively weak while currencies tread water as USD gained slightly. The Shanghai Composite was floating along and looked set to put