A mixed start to the week here in Asia as many stock markets and other trading venues are closed for holidays, with risk focused more on the Brexit brouhaha. The Shanghai Composite closed today for a holiday. The Hang Seng Index has gapped down significatnly, off nearly 2% to 27473 points, reversing most of last week’s build up
They just keep getting more bearish at UBS: New comprehensive credit reporting rules from mid-next year could reduce borrowing capacity by about $100,000 for many households, as credit card limits and other debts are taken into account, the bank said. …When negative gearing arrangements were limited in 1985 and a capital-gains tax was introduced, the
Via Axios: The Trump administration is planning to launch a major, “administration-wide,” broadside against China, according to two sources briefed on the sensitive internal discussions. These sources, who weren’t authorized to discuss the plans with the media, told me the effort is expected to launch in the next few weeks. The details: The broadside against China
More fresh doom online from 60 Minutes via Martin North:
Cross-posted from The Conversation: When it comes to the gender gap in retirement incomes, symbolism appears to matter more than actually achieving something. Labor’s plan to add super contributions to government-funded parental leave was heralded by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten this week as having a “big impact down the track”. Our analysis shows it would
AUD gapped lower this morning and has held the losses as S&P500 futures are soft: Bonds are bid: XJO is down modestly: Big Iron is hit: Big Gas is up: Big Gold hosed: Big Mortgage defaulting: Big Puswad going sideways: More trade war = sell Straya.
Via the ABC: In the past three years, nearly 70 per cent of federal ministers and shadow ministers have accepted corporate hospitality, which can be anything from a lavish lunch, to tickets to the AFL grand final, to airline lounge memberships. More than a quarter of senior and assistant ministers took jobs with special interests
Via Alan Kohler today: An alliance of the American military establishment and Republican trade hawks wants to break up the connections that have become embedded between US companies and China, as part of an attempt to prevent China gaining economic, geopolitical and technological predominance. …Beijing is digging in, settling in for a long siege because
Via the AFR: Small business says it is facing a credit crunch and is blaming the royal commission into financial services for causing nervous banks to slow lending to the self-employed. The moderation in lending to small firms in recent months appears to be an unintended consequence of anecdotal evidence of questionable bank lending practices
Excellent news this, from the Property Investment Professionals of Australia survey: Australian property investors are shrugging off finance issues, concerns about taxation policy changes, and the market slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne with a growing majority believing this year is a better time to invest than last, the 2018 Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA)
By Leith van Onselen The Morrison Government has been accused of stifling the development of a “build-to-rent” sector in Australia. This follows the passage of laws last week that would ban managed investment trusts from acquiring residential property unless the property is targeted at low-income consumers. This law, in turn, will reportedly prevent apartments from
Via Domainfax: ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie has been sacked by the board after just two years and four months in the job. “The decision follows discussions over several months that concluded when directors resolved that it was not in the best interests of the ABC for Ms Guthrie to continue to lead the organisation,”
By Leith van Onselen Fairfax has published an article warning that cracking down on migrant worker exploitation could result in consumers paying more at cafes and restaurants: A 2015 report by watchdog the Fair Work Ombudsman found about half of all restaurants and cafes audited did not pay legal rates. And in July this year
By Leith van Onselen With the satisfaction with Australia’s political system plunging to all-time lows, and distrust growing and voters flocking to minor parties: Former Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer, is playing ‘blame the victim’. From The AFR: There’s an old political slogan you might remember … the public get the politicians they deserve. Through
By Leith van Onselen After spending years denying that Australian housing was expensive or that there was a housing bubble, Michael Pascoe has joined the property rent-seekers in calling for Labor to abandon its negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) reforms until after the market is stable. From The New Daily: What could be
Leith noted earlier today another new poll showing the collapse of community support for mass immigration. Also today we get the bell tolling for the NSW government, at Domainfax: Just weeks after an embarrassing loss for the Liberals in the Wagga Wagga byelection, and as ministers engage in open warfare over a bitter preselection battle, the
By Leith van Onselen Late last month, the Productivity Commission released a research report examining inequality in Australia, which found that income inequality has not materially worsened in recent decades, but wealth inequality has. Now, the first edition of the Roy Morgan Wealth Report has been released, which shows that net wealth has grown strongly
By Leith van Onselen It certainly pays to be a senior executive of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While ordinary Australian workers in the private sector are being put through the wringer: In addition to the number of people employed by the RBA exploding from 800 in 2007 to almost 1,400: Senior executives at
Iron ore prices for September 21, 2018: Spot down. Everything else stable. China is closed today. Still see prices falling to year-end to low-$60s then a stable year for 2019 with expanding stimulus in China and the US.
Via The Australian: The lift in the Coalition’s primary vote to 36 per cent marks a three-point jump from the 10-year low of 33 per cent recorded in the days following the August 24 spill that ended Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. It is still six points down on the July 2016 election result, which returned the
By Chris Becker The end of quarter re balancing on very bullish stock markets was overshadowed on Friday night by increased volatility on currencies, with the chance of an “unfriendly” Brexit sending Pound Sterling sharply lower. The other undollars also retraced from their recent rally as USD strength came to the fore with renewed vigor
By Leith van Onselen The mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy has clearly lost the community’s support, with the five most recent national opinion polls all showing majority support for lowering immigration: Australian Population Research Institute: 54% want lower immigration; Newspoll: 56% want lower immigration; Essential: 54% believe Australia’s population is growing too fast and 64% believe
DXY recovered Friday night. CNY and EUR fell: Markets are still neutral on EUR, a crucial question for where DXY heads next: AUD was weak against DMs: And EMs: Market positioning on the AUD collapsed to uber-short -68k contracts early last week. It’s a shame this data is a week delayed, it would have been
Bloomberg kicks us off: U.S. President Donald Trump continued to hit out at China days after announcing another round of tariffs, signaling the trade war won’t end any time soon. “It’s time to take a stand on China,” Trump said in an interview late Thursday with Fox News. “We have no choice. It’s been a
From Martin North:
By Leith van Onselen The NSW Office of State Revenue has updated its stamp duty data for August 2018, which reveals that residential stamp duty receipts are plummeting following a monumental five-year boom: As shown above, annual NSW residential stamp duty receipts ($6,616 billion) in August retraced further from October’s all-time high of $7.516 billion;
CoreLogic released its auction report yesterday, which reported another very weak wekend of auctions with the preliminary national auction clearance rate at just 55.5% versus 55.0% last weekend (later revised down to 51.8%). The preliminary clearance rate was also way below the 66.2% recorded in the same weekend of last year: Auction volumes nationally were
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: How the Myth of the ’Robber Barons’ Began—and Why It Persists – FEE A radical idea for reducing inequality deserves more attention – The Economist Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math – Barron’s Do Digital Platforms Reduce Moral Hazard? The Case of Taxis and Uber
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Former Google CEO predicts the internet will split in two by 2028 – CNBC World Poverty Falls Below 750 Million, Report Says – WSJ Why This VC Is Pouring Millions Into Startups Building ‘a Sci-Fi Future’ – Fortune The Prime Effect: How Amazon’s 2-Day Shipping Is Disrupting Retail –
As we head into the end of the week, the bulls remain fully in charge on global stock markets with Asian bourses looking set to end on a good note across the board. Not much data today, although some indication that the BOJ is unsure it will hit it’s inflation mark sent the Yen lower,
