First, it is the timing of the outbreak. We think it fair to assume that cold has at least some impact on the virus spread: But because it has begun in the north hemisphere winter, it will largely be over there by April/May. That puts the global growth shock in Q2 amd Q3, just when
For 18 months now we have warned that L-plate Treasurer Josh Recessionberg is much more at home on the tennis court than he is at the controls of an economy. Now the consequences of his misshapen economic backhand are clear. The key blunder of Treasurer Recessionberg has been to choke public investment hard during a
A new data set comparing house prices across countries has ranked Australia as the second most expensive on a per square metre basis: A new data set called HouseLev put together by Jean-Charles Bricongne, Alessandro Turrini and Peter Pontuch fills the gap. It provides the average price per square meter of housing in 40 countries,
The Department of Education has released its international student data for the 2019 calendar year, which reveals that total international students enrolments hit an all-time high 957,000: Total international student enrolments rose 9.7% from 2018 and have increased roughly ten-fold from 1994. As shown in the next chart, China (261,000) remained Australia’s largest source of
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Travel giant Expedia to cut 3,000 jobs: report – Tech Xplore How Fast Can a Virus Destroy a Supply Chain? – Bloomberg Amazon is expanding its cashierless Go model into a full-blown grocery store – The Verge The Coronavirus Is Now Infecting The Economy, Stock And Job Markets –
Asian markets continue their decline following the continued overnight rout on Wall Street, with local Australian stocks leading the selloff. Commodities and commodity currency remain depressed with the Australian dollar inching below the 66 cent mark vs USD while gold has recovered a little from its profit taking slump overnight. The Shanghai Composite is the
Via the excellent Damain Boey at Credit Suisse: We have just received construction work done data for 4Q. Construction investment was well below expectations, falling by 3% over the quarter, but with upward revisions to prior quarter’s data. Year-ended growth fell to -7.4% from -7%. Compositionally, declines were broadly-based across residential, non-residential and engineering categories.
Forshame: That must go down as one of the greatest train robberies of all time.
Three of the big four banks have cut deposit rates independently of the RBA, with some now nearing zero: The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t reduced the official interest rate since October, but that hasn’t stopped our big banks from quietly cutting the rates they pay customers. “Although the Reserve Bank has left official interest
Here’s the problem. Iran has a reported 95 coronavirus cases with 16 deaths. Countries all around Iran have alos come down with the virus, enough to suggest that of those 95, half have gone elsewhere. Then there is this: Iran’s deputy health minister and an MP have both tested positive for the new coronavirus, as
Presented without comment, a must watch video of our great and powerful friend in action.
Fresh from Beijing: At 04:00 on February 25, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 406 new confirmed cases, 52 new deaths (52 in Hubei), and 439 new suspected cases. On the same day, 2,422 cases were discharged and cured, 14 573 were close contacts of medical observation, and
The future of Foxtel’s pay-TV is terminal according to telecommunications expert, Paul Budde: For a range of reasons, Foxtel never took off in Australia. It predicted a 75% penetration by 2000, however, at its peak, it has never exceeded the 30-35% mark. Best indications are it currently stands just below 25%. The company has basically
Every time there there’s an economic hiccup, the Ross Gittins spruikbot flicks the demand-pumping confidence switch: The human capacity for adaptation – our ability to soon get used to our changed circumstances – is one of our great strengths. It means we can suffer a major misfortune – the death of a spouse, divorce, loss
Via Domain: More than 1.8 million hospital beds could be needed to treat people in an Australian coronavirus outbreak, with the country’s ageing population meaning the virus could hit harder here than it has overseas. In a worst-case scenario, at least 650,000 beds would need to be in the intensive care units of hospitals, according
The NSW Planning, Industry and Environment department has upgraded its housing targets, which have lumped more development on Sydney’s migrant-stuffed west while reducing the development load on the wealthy east and northern beaches: Planning Minister Rob Stokes said development was taking place at different rates in response to planning, infrastructure and market activity… Areas earmarked
The ABS has released data on the value of construction work done for the December quarter of 2019, which registered another 3.0% seasonally-adjusted decline in total construction activity over the quarter – the sixth consecutive quarterly decline – and a 7.4% decrease over the year: The result easily missed analysts’ expectations of a 1.0% decline
Finally, the ‘Big Australia’ shills at the ABC have come to the realisation that governments can never build enough infrastructure to keep pace with mass immigration: In our booming cities, one construction project rolls into the next and those living through them are left asking: will we ever get ahead?.. Experts say when it comes
Via the AFR: The coronavirus could trigger the next financial crisis but the underlying cause will be subprime corporate loans, contrarian investor and chief stock picker for the $19 billion Ariel Investments Rupal Bhansali warns. …”We did not know if the economic shock would come from coronavirus or something else [but] in the worst-case scenario
Capital Economics still looking at April: …we don’t think that the RBA’s concerns about financial stability are an insurmountable hurdle …housing finance commitments have rebounded…consistent with housing credit growth remaining very subdued …we think it may fall to US$0.65 by the end of the year The RBA must cut next week. First, COVID-19 is no
COVID-19 has been an issue for weeks. The bond market realised it. Forex markets realised it. So don’t give me the “Italy changes everything” bullshit. And spare me your “black swan” nonsense*. The reality is that very little has changed with the growth of COVID-19 over the last few days. If we look only at
Via AP: A senior member of the International Olympic Committee said Tuesday that if it proves too dangerous to hold the Olympics in Tokyo this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers are more likely to cancel it altogether than to postpone or move it. Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been
With predictable results. Now printing a massive double-top: The Australian dollar and bonds are eerily calm: Big Iron is hit with FMG printing a large head and shoulders topping pattern. It’s not broken yet but if it does… Big Gas is aflame: Big Gold is still a major disappointment. Last night sell-off had shades of
The prestigious Group of Eight (G8) universities may organise charter flights to bring Chinese students to Australia when the federal government’s coronavirus travel ban is lifted. It is estimated that about 70,00 students at the Go8 universities have been affected by the travel ban. Some of the nation’s universities will offer grants or fee reductions
Here is the US virus control plan, via Bloomie: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Americans should prepare for significant disruptions of daily life if the coronavirus outbreak that began in China begins to spread locally in the U.S., describing emergency plans that mimic the drastic measures taken by other countries. That could
These guys just don’t know when to stop. At the AFR: The outbreak of the coronavirus has had a profound impact around the world and brought to light how integral modern-day China is to our economy and society. Dealing with the fallout of the disease, renamed COVID-19, has been a challenge for governments around the
The Australian’s Adam Creighton believes Australia is almost certain to plunge back into a per capita recession due to the coronavirus: That’s the definition of a recession that relates to living standards, not the definition the government prefers, which implies India — with a larger overall GDP — is a better place to live than
Via Terry McCrann today: One thing should be clear cut — especially at this point of peak uncertainty. Think very carefully about the range of possible consequences of decisions; they could so easily and dramatically backfire. Letting in Chinese students and/or tourists too quickly could end up damaging the very people and businesses that are
By Chris Becker Fear is gripping equity and risk markets with nothing but selling overnight although to put in context, the bubblish S&P500 is now only back to its December 2019 high! Context is not traded on markets however, with the USD sold off again boosting Euro and hurting continental stocks, with Treasury yields also
Some signs of life in the Chinese economy over the past 24 hours. The big five have a bit of traffic: And wider indicators from Capital Economics have ticked higher: I still expect the rebound to be slow, halting and swoosh-shaped. The full links from Sinocism: 1. The outbreak Drop in New Coronavirus Cases in
