By Leith van Onselen The Property Council of Australia (PCA) has released a report claiming that Australia’s large cities are suffering from “governance fragmentation”. With the exception of Brisbane, the PCA argues that local councils in Australia’s big cities only cover a very small percentage of their overall population, and have limited ability to influence
By Leith van Onselen The AFR has gone long property bear porn today after auction clearance rates tanked in key parts of Sydney and Melbourne over the weekend: The largest factor in the weakening auction market in Sydney and Melbourne was the absence of foreign investors, agents and economists said… While price rises approached 20
It’s all bodice ripping, hair pulling and hysteria now, at The Australian: Craig Kelly, backed by Tony Abbott, called for the competition watchdog to be given new powers that would make it “crystal clear” that closing down a essential service utility when there were “other options”, such as selling to another player, was anti-competitive behaviour.
Swithed on banking at the AFR: The trail of documents used by Westpac to support a business loan for a failed franchise and led the loan’s guarantor to lose her home were haphazard, inconsistent and incomplete the Hayne royal commission has heard. It follows earlier hearings on consumer credit and financial services that also highlighted the insufficient and
By Leith van Onselen The ABS has released commuting data from the 2016 Census, which reveals that private vehicle transport continues to dominate Australians’ commute to work, with public transport’s share of commutes barely increasing: Of the 9.2 million commuters on Census day, 79% travelled to work by private vehicle, 14% took public transport and
By Leith van Onselen It seems 15 years of turbo-charged ‘skilled’ permanent migration is not enough: Today, the Regional Australia Institute has demanded the federal government expand Australia’s permanent migration program even further in a bid to ease skills shortages in the regions. From The ABC: Expanding Australia’s permanent migration program would help regional communities
Via The Guardian: Voters are more attracted to Bill Shorten’s tax and economic plans than Malcolm Turnbull’s but the contest between the major parties appears to be tightening, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. The new survey of 1,025 voters found 45% of the sample backed Shorten’s tax plan outlined in budget week compared with 33% supporting the
The Australian dollar short squeeze is still running through the morning: Bonds are bid: XJO is copping it as the double-top firms up: Dalian has opened weak: Big Iron too: Big Gas to the moon! WPL is breaking out of a bullish ascending triangle: Big Gold is still falling. More to come: As is Big
By Leith van Onselen Acadata has released its latest house price results for the UK, which shows that values in London continue to fall: The retreat in house prices continued in April, and this is now the eleventh month in which the annual rate of house price growth has slowed, albeit at an ever-reducing rate.
Chinese soft power can be amusing at times, via The Australian: The scene was Shanghai’s Hyatt on the Bund last Thursday night. Ciobo, the first minister from Malcolm Turnbull’s government to visit China in eight months, had just taken the stage in an attempt to add some balm to recent wounds to the China-Australia relationship.
Via Peter Hartcher today: For the first time, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force on Friday landed heavy bombers on an island in the South China Sea. Three weeks ago it installed anti-ship and anti-aircraft cruise missiles on some of the islands. …”There’s no conceivable defensive rationale for putting these things on these islands,” says Lowy’s
More record lows for the handsome McGrathmageddon today: Now down 85% from the float. No news to drive it so perhaps it’s just the building Sydney and Melbourne property busts. Only one analyst covers it, at Bell (and probably not voluntarily given they underwrote the float), so consensus earnings are a bit biased! Not getting
By Leith van Onselen The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) has released research examining “Home Prices, Housing Wealth and Home Equity Extraction”, which reveals that US home prices has finally rebounded above their pre-GFC peak: Home ownership has returned to is long-run (lower) ‘normal’ level: But like in Australia, has collapsed for younger
More pain for the banks today, via Chanticleer: Hodge assured those in the room and others watching the live stream that commissioner Kenneth Hayne, who built a distinguished career ruling expertly on black letter law, wants to draw out the personal and emotional impact of banking misconduct. The commission has become a venue for reminding
By Chris Becker US stocks took the positive mood in Asia yesterday but ignored a mixed session in Europe to close higher, although tech stocks dragged the chain compared to industrials. The USD had a strange evening however, with both the Aussie dollar and Euro rallying and rebounding respectively from the Monday morning gaps, Yen was
Via Domainfax: Sydney is approaching a tipping point that would see people abandon public transport and choose to drive to work as the city struggles to cope with population growth. The stark warning from the chairman of Transport Management at Sydney University, Professor Stephen Greaves, comes as a new report shows Sydney lags comparable cities
Via CoreLogic comes the leading mortgage index: The last four years have seen big Autumn bounces in borrowing. This year it is falling. Listings are still contained: But for how long as prices fall and demand shrivels? Full report.
By Leith van Onselen The Labor Opposition has indicated it may support the second stage of the Turnbull Government’s proposed income tax cuts package. This would raise the upper threshold for the 32.5% tax rate from $90,000 to $120,000, which would primarily benefit people on middle incomes. Labor’s finance spokesman, Jim Chalmers, claims the party
There is no better bellwether for Australian fortunes than the CBA. It is still our largest bank and caretaker of Australia’s monstrous household debt. So it pays to keep tabs on the health of its equity. The news is not terribly reassuring. As the royal commission has proceeded, and the CBA faces corruption allegations on
DXY is still marching higher as EUR crumbles: But AUD soared last night as trade war fears collapsed: EMs did better too: Gold was smashed but then bought: Oil is a rocket ship: Base metals were mixed: Big miners too: EM stocks added a little: Junk held: Treasuries were bid: Bunds much more: As Italian
It appears One Nation has killed the company tax cut. Via The Australian: Pauline Hanson has dealt what appears to be a fatal blow to the government’s company tax cuts by withdrawing support for the package and producing a list of near impossible demands, declaring that Malcolm Turnbull has failed to sell the reform’s benefits.
Regular readers will know that ever since the AUD was sitting at $1.11 against the USD, MB has held the view that there was a material risk that the currency would not only fall but keep falling to record lows. Yesterday’s Aviva Big Australian short explains how it might happen: “We are short the Aussie
By Leith van Onselen The AFR published an interesting article showing that while Australia’s population is ageing, there are a rising number of women and older Australians working that mitigates this impact, in turn maintaining excess supply in the labour market and holding down wages: A potent combination of more women entering the workforce and
Via Westpac: •Employment rose 22.6k in April beating both market (20k) and Westpac’s (17k) expectations. Full-time employment rose by 32.7k while part-time fell 10.0k. Past employment results were revised with March now –0.7k (was +4.9k) and February is now –7.4k (was reported as –6.3k last month and originally reported as +17.5k). This trend for downward
By Leith van Onselen The most recent Mapping the Market report from CoreLogic revealed that just 0.9% of Sydney suburbs had a median house value below $500,000 as at March 2018, well down on the 33.8% of suburbs that were priced below $500,000 five years earlier: Now, CoreLogic has released new research showing that there
Via The Australian: The Australian arm of Toys ‘R’ Us was placed into administration on Monday night, putting the future of more than 700 staff in doubt. McGrathNicol was appointed voluntary administrator of Toys ‘R’ Us (Australia) and Babies ‘R’ Us by a resolution of the company’s Australian directors. The move follows the collapse of
Josh Frydenberg is either lost or corrupt on energy. All we need is a little domestic gas reservation. The insufficient amount that we have had has already lowered the wholesale electricity price by one third, via The Australian: Electricity retailers are on notice to pass on sharp falls in the wholesale price of electricity after
Iron ore price for May 21, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell -2.7% to $64.90. Paper held on overnight. Steel is falling. Rebar inventories fell again last week to 6.07mt and are roughly on par with last year now. Port iron ore stocks may finally be destocking. It all adds up to an overstocked market turning
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Theranos deception – CBS America beware: dollar supremacy is not forever – FT Monopsony in online labour markets – VOX Monopsony, Rigidity, and the Wage Puzzle (Wonkish) – NY Times Crypto Bull Tom Lee Owns Up After Bitcoin Prediction Goes Awry – Bloomberg Freeing Econ 101: Beyond the
A generally positive day across Asia to start the trading week. The USD advanced against the major currencies and gold, helping inversely correlated Japanese stocks while local shares floundered. The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1% or about 25 points at 3215, finally out of the shadow of very strong overhead resistance at 3200 even, giving the impetus for a
