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And the award for Australia’s worst immigration spruiker goes to…

By Leith van Onselen 60 Minutes’ excellent ‘Big Australia’ demolition featured Shane Geha, managing director of EG – “a leading real estate investment fund manager” . According to their website: As founding Managing Director of EG’s Urban Planning business, Shane bears overall responsibility for all EG’s rezoning projects. Shane has extensive rezoning experience and brings a

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A boom in bear porn

It’s not often that MB gets out-beared but it’s happening at the moment, via News: Mr Adams said an inversion of the “one year to 10 year” yield curve had been the most accurate prediction of a coming recession since the 1960s — a phenomenon also recognised by the US Federal Reserve. …In a previous

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How dwelling construction is tracking against population growth

By Leith van Onselen With Monday’s release of Australia’s population data for the September quarter, it’s once again time to examine how Australia’s dwelling supply is tracking against population growth. The below charts track the following, which are based on the latest available quarterly data: Dwelling approvals to December 2018; Dwelling commencements to September 2018;

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Links 26 March 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Man stole $122m from Facebook and Google by sending them random bills, which the companies dutifully paid – sniply The Credit-Card Kingmaker – WSJ With the iPhone Sputtering, Apple Bets Its Future on TV and News – WSJ How Often Is It a Stock-Picker’s Market? – A Wealth of

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets have fallen sharply in response to the poor showing on Wall Street on Friday night as the US bond yield curve inversion and the growing likelihood of a European recession weigh heavily. The Shanghai Composite is down nearly 0.9% going into the close to get back below 3100 points, currently at 3075 while the

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Free-trade deals ‘face collapse’ if ALP wins

By Leith van Onselen Labor has indicated it might seek to excise investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) clauses in free-trade agreements (FTAs) with Indonesia and Peru if it wins the upcoming federal election. Such clauses can be used by foreign companies to sue the federal government; tobacco company Philip Morris used them to sue the government

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First home buyers abort crashing Sydney property market

By Leith van Onselen With Sydney’s housing market suffering the second worst price bust in modern history: First home buyers (FHBs) are shunning the market, despite housing becoming more affordable. From Domain: Sydney properties are becoming more affordable as prices fall, but the number of first-home buyer stamp duty exemptions and concessions have taken a

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Deutsche: APRA fudging mortgage data?

By Leith van Onselen Analysts at Deutsche bank believe they have found a major flaw in APRA’s mortgage data, which significantly understates average loan size. Basically, because APRA has failed to adjust for split-loans, the $276,000 average loan size figure has been understated by around 40%, according to Deutsche, thus giving regulators a false sense

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China trade threats “all bark and no bite”

Nice from Richard McGregor via Newsroom: Talk of strained relations between New Zealand and China has led to fears of trade reprisals – but one expert says the Asian superpower has been “all bark and no bite” with its threats in recent years. Richard McGregor, an Australian journalist who spent nearly a decade as the

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Crispin Hull: “Australia’s population on road to hell”

By Leith van Onselen Former editor of the Canberra Times, Crispin Hull, has continued his herculean battle against the ‘Big Australia’ mass immigration policy, penning the following demolition of the Coalition’s fake immigration cuts: [Morrison] announced that net immigration will be capped at 160,000 a year for the next four years. Previously it was nominally

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Bank of Mum and Dad goes bust

Via Martin North: Latest data released today from the DFA household surveys shows that a smaller number of potential first time buyers are now getting help from their parents to buy property. This video explains what is going on. At its height 60% of first time buyers were getting help from their parents, but this

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Hostplus: Avoid bonds and cash

From Bloomberg: Australia’s best-performing superannuation fund is going against the grain by avoiding cash and bonds, betting the 30-year investment horizon of its youthful members means it can ride out looming economic shocks. Hostplus, which represents swathes of the country’s baristas and restaurant waiters, had about 53 per cent of its $40 billion invested in

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Perth property value losses plunge through 18%

By Leith van Onselen Ove the weekend, CoreLogic’s daily house price index revealed that Perth dwelling value declines have smashed through 18%: This is by far the biggest bust on record for Perth, with the current 16% decline far eclipsing prior price corrections, both in terms of size and duration: The quarterly pace of decline

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Scummo launches operation coal suicide

Because the only numbers that matter are those in your party room, via the AFR: Scott Morrison and Nationals leader Michael McCormack are working on a peace deal over coal fired power to prevent another outbreak of hostilities within the Coalition before the federal election. After the Nationals performed poorly in Saturday’s NSW state election

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BIS debunks ageing population alarmism

By Leith van Onselen For more than a decade, the Productivity Commission (PC) has debunked the common myth that immigration can overcome population ageing. For example: PC (2005): “Despite popular thinking to the contrary, immigration policy is also not a feasible countermeasure [to an ageing population]. It affects population numbers more than the age structure”.