262

Weekend Links: 24-25 July, 2021

Across the Yarra, 1931, Clarice Beckett, National Gallery of Victoria   Macro & Markets Why there is no solution to our age of crisis without China – New Statesman The aftermath of sovereign debt crises – VoxEU The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Why this time may be different – VoxEU Don’t worry about

Latest posts

137

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are listless going into the end of the week due to the absence of Japanese traders and continued concern over delta variant outbreaks in the region. Bitcoin however is lifting sharply this afternoon, almost tripping over the $33K level to make a new weekly high while gold is falling back again to

36

JobKeeper rorters ignored as unemployed forced to repay welfare

The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has reported that 157,650 employers saw their turnover increase between April and June 2020, when compared to the same period in 2019. These employers received a combined $4.6 billion in JobKeeper payments during this period, and Labor MP Andrew Leigh says the figures show how much of taxpayers’ money was

12

Lombard: Don’t worry about Delta

TS Lombard with the note: Don’t let your heart rule your head. There are times when one cannot help being emotional, and the last 18months have pushed many of us to emotional breaking points. But when it comes to managing money, introducing emotion into the equation often leads to bad decision-making. (This author was guilty

3

Why are bond yields plunging?

This is a bit like asking Dracula why there’s a blood shortage but here’s Goldman with its best effort on why bond yields are plunging: Q: The reflation theme in markets seems to be unwinding, led by bonds. What is recent price action signaling about the recovery? A: Since the recent Mid-may highs, both 10y

0

Job postings unaffected by lockdowns

Callam Pickering, economist at global jobs site Indeed, has released new data showing that, as of last Friday, Sydney’s and Melbourne’s lockdowns had minimal impact on Job Postings; although Pickering expects the situation to change as lockdowns drag on: As of last Friday, there has been minimal impact on job postings from the lockdowns in

30

Forget record low rates, younger generations pay most for housing

Think Tank Per Capita has released a new discussion paper entitled “Generation Stressed”, which shows that Australian households have experienced “a significant increase in the lifetime expenditure on the median mortgage” over the generations, specifically: “For a Silent Generation family buying in 1970, the average repayment cost over the course of the mortgage was 11.2%

83

NSW records new high 136 COVID cases

NSW Health has reported another 136 local COVID cases over the past 24 hours: NSW recorded 136 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. pic.twitter.com/WsMXKvQOY0 — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) July 23, 2021 Of these locally acquired cases, 77 are linked to a known case or cluster – 65

3

Payrolls slump into Morrison’s recession

Farewell stellar jobs recovery. Via the ABS: In the fortnight up to the week ending 3 July 2021: Payroll jobs decreased by 1.0%, compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous fortnight All states fell: OMG it’s a blue recession! Kids always do worst, earliest: Payrolls are not seasonally adjusted so that’s why the ABS is cautious. But,

2

Daily iron ore price update (hammered)

The ferrous complex was half-hammered on Thursday 22, 2021 as iron ore gave way, paper kept falling overnight but steel jumped again: The same explanation is on offer from Reuters: Chinese iron ore futures fell for a fourth consecutive session, down more than 7% to their lowest levels in nearly three weeks, on prospects of

0

Macro Morning

Sentiment continues to swell positive with another solid night across all equity markets with tech stocks leading the way this time due to some solid earnings results on Wall Street. Bond yields slipped on a very dovish ECB meeting with commodity prices continuing their own bounceback, oil up 2% alongside copper while gold got back

18

Is the Bitcoin bubble inflating iron ore?

Check out this fantastical piece of speculation by Gordon Johnson of GLJ research: WHAT’S UP? While Evergrande’s bonds and equity trended up in the China Thursday trading session on news it resolved an issue with the bank that froze its accounts, this is PEANUTS in the grand scheme of things – while Evergrande has $107bn of B/S

16

International student numbers fall toward sustainable levels

The Australian has released a report decrying the ‘collapse’ in international student numbers caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: “Australia has lost more than 100,000 foreign students in the past financial year at a cost of nearly $6bn to the economy”. “There are more than 472,000 holders of Australian student visas, including those inside and outside

7

Links 23 July 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Jeff Bezos: ‘We Need to Move All Polluting Industry Into Space’ – Gizmodo The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Why this time may be different – VOX Macroeconomic Consequences of the Infrastructure and Budget Reconciliation Plans – Moodys Analytics Jeep Maker Splits With Economists, Seeing Inflation Clearly –

78

Macro Afternoon

Optimism is creeping back across Asian stock markets in response to the broad moves higher on both sides of the Atlantic as the buy the dip crowd steps in, helped along by a surge in oil prices. Bitcoin is floating along above the $32K level thanks to some Elon-pumping while gold is still suffering after

7

MB Fund Podcast: Australia’s Remarkable Jobs Recovery, with CBA’s Gareth Aird

In today’s investment webinar (LIVE 12:30pm AEST), MB Fund’s Chief Economist Leith van Onselen, Head of Investments Damien Klassen, and Head of Advice Tim Fuller are joined by CBA’s Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird to discuss Australia’s Remarkable Jobs Recovery. Topics covered: Australia’s unemployment rate fell to decade low in June. Tightest job market

14

Coal booms as Japan kills it

Australian thermal coal has suddenly joined the ranks of crazed commodities. In the past two weeks it has literally gone vertical to prices unseen since pre-GFC: There are heats waves from Europe to China straining power grids triggering this price spike. It is also following the recent LNG price spike given the two energy sources

9

Super rorts are costing the budget billions

The ABC’ business editor Ian Verrender has published an explosive report on how Australia’s wealthy use Australia’s superannuation concession system to shelter themselves from paying taxes: Back in 1992, when compulsory superannuation was introduced, it was supposed to take the pressure off federal government finances; to augment the age pension. But superannuation tax breaks introduced

4

Goldman: Stocks to correct

More grist for the growth scare mill from a new Goldman note: 11 point Checklist – Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the