By Leith van Onselen Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research deputy director, Roger Wilkins, has today labelled “patently false” the claim by Labor leader Bill Shorten that inequality in Australia is rising. From The AFR: Professor Wilkins told the Economic and Social Outlook Conference that the Australian Bureau of Statistics data on which
From Guy Debelle today: There are a large number of factors that the Reserve Bank Board takes into consideration in making its interest rate decision each month, both domestic and global. Today I would like to talk about some of the global influences on domestic monetary policy. As you are well aware, the Australian economy
By Leith van Onselen The AFR’s Laura Tingle is the latest to jump on the immigration debate, accusing politicians of burying the issue despite its massive impacts on the economy and society: One of the ways governments try to signal their changing priorities to voters is to change the names of ministerial portfolios and government
Dalian is soft during the day: Big Iron is copping it: Big Gas does not look well: Those descending triangles on the majors might break. Oil has rebounded but they haven’t… Big Gold still looks weak too: Big Bubble has lost it’s froth: And Big Liar is whatever: Avagoodweekend.
The front page of the Australian is highlighting that the Labor party is starting to make inequality an issue for the next election, and Leith ran a post yesterday about the Labor party and a possible inheritance tax for next year. I find the whole inheritance tax debate fascinating. In my experience Australian’s have 3
Via Citi: Balance sheet reductions and tapering Since 2008, central bank balance sheets across advanced economies (AEs) have expanded dramatically (e.g. Fed balance sheet went from 6% of GDP in 2007 to around 25% of GDP in 2015 and the ECB balance sheet went from 13% of GDP in 2007 to around 38% currently) and
By Leith van Onselen Back in March, New Zealand’s Productivity Commission (PC) has released a report entitled “Urban planning – moving beyond the wheel spin”, which basically concluded that Auckland’s housing system is under siege from the combination of rapid population growth butting heads with a dysfunctional planning system, which is unable to cope with
By Leith van Onselen At the same time as Labor is crowing about rising inequality, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull confirmed yesterday that the Coalition would push on with its pledge to cut the company tax rate to 25% for all companies. From The Australian: [The Prime Minister] turned attention to the government’s plan to cut
By Leith van Onselen Yesterday, senior public servant, David Gruen, unbelievably blamed the rise in male joblessness on video games. From The Australian: Video games are luring young men away from the workforce in large-enough numbers to show up in the labour force survey… Although the number of hours worked per person has declined since
You know my view but try Deutsche’s excellent Adam Boynton: A funding challenge? AUD/USD has recently broken out of the top of the range it has traded in for over a year. Despite that, and despite the recent RBA repricing in Australia, the 10-year spread to the US remains below the highs of ~55bp seen
Via UBS: Overall, employment remains very strong & clearly improved in recent months, with 2% y/y the best in over 2 years, ~consistent with positive lead indicators. Unemployment also fell in recent months to a cycle low of 5.6%. This supports the RBA’s ‘positive’ outlook in their minutes. But, the onus is on jobs and
DXY is sinking like a stone: The driver is EUR which has broken out big: AUD sold yesterday afternoon but is still afire: Gold was firm but is still weak relative to DXY weakness: Brent was soft: Base metals mixed: Big miners sank: EM stocks stalled: Lead by high yield: US bonds were bid: And
By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for June 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit a record high 72,305 people over the year: According to Statistics New Zealand, migrant arrivals were a record high 131,400 in the June 2017
Via Morgan Stanley: 1st Take: The Federal Court on July 20, recognized native title rights and interests over a large area of the Pilbara in WA that includes FMG’s Solomon Hub (70Mt of 170Mt production). The company responded to the news stating the decision has no impact on the current and future operations or mining
By Chris Becker While tech stocks advanced in the US, the ECB’s lack of defining language and continued accommodation kept the Euro elevated and European shares depressed. The US domestic political imbroglio kept the major industrial stocks at bay, as hot money went to bonds and out of the USD again on the safe haven
Via The Australian: Greens leader Richard Di Natale is facing dire warnings of a slide in his party’s popular support with a leaked internal analysis showing it is on track to lose three of its nine Senate seats, as it reels from the loss of two of its most popular senators. Sounding the alarm over
By Leith van Onselen In yesterday’s address at the 2017 Economic & Social Outlook Conference, Labor treasury spokesman, Chris Bowen, launched a classic straw man argument against cutting Australia’s mass immigration program, disingenuously conflating the issue with rising global trade protectionism [my emphasis]: This brings me to the broader context in which the budget debate
After being suspicious of David Murray when he first emerged as the spearhead of reform for Australia’s banking architecture, we were pleasantly surprised to find he showed great sense and integrity in his inquiry. But, since the announcement of the bank levy, he’s gotten very conflicted and confused, suddenly repudiating positions he held in his
By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s ABS labour force release for June revealed some better news for those aged 15 to 24 years old that are looking for a job. Although the trend headline unemployment rate rose from 12.92% in May to 12.96%: Total employment growth for those aged 15-24 years of age has improved to
By Leith van Onselen In the week ended 20 July 2017, the CoreLogic 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, rose another 0.20%: The surge in prices was driven by Melbourne, with Perth in the red: So far in July, dwelling values have increased by 1.61%, again driven by
Via the AFR: The first signs have emerged of a sea change in the flow of gas around the east coast, and they couldn’t have come soon enough. After more than 18 months of Queensland acting as a giant hoover, sucking up gas from as far south as the Bass Strait to feed the LNG refrigerators on
Iron ore price charts for July 20, 2017: Tianjin benchmark sank $2.20 to $67.30. Paper flamed out and fell sharply overnight. Steel eased. The rally looks cooked to me. We’ll probably bounce around $70 for a while as Chinese mills complete their restock but there’s just no reason to drive it higher here. Supply is flooding
Global Macro / Markets / Investment: Growth and volatility before and after the Global Crisis – VOX These pictures show how ethereum is taking over the digital currency world – CNBC Ethereum Suddenly Crashes 20% Amid Chatter Of More ICO Fraud; But Goldman Sees Bitcoin Testing $3000 – Zero Hedge $30 million below Parity: Ethereum
by Chris Becker The new highs keep on coming as the BOJ holds fire with no new stimulus or a shift in language with the Yen selling off slightly, helping domestic shares. The rest of Asia keeps firing on all cylinders, with the Aussie unemployment numbers taking a little wind out of the Aussie dollar,
