Latest posts


Victoria is a rat on the turbocharged immigration treadmill

By Leith van Onselen The release yesterday of the ABS population data for the 2016 Calendar year revealed some inconvenient truths for the Victorian economy. This data showed that Victoria’s population surged by an Australian record 146,628 people in the 2016 calendar year, representing a population growth rate of 2.40%: The State Government has been


Links 28 June 2017

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Assessing Global Imbalances: The Nuts and Bolts – IMF Unemployment insurance and reservation wages – VOX Tariffs on Solar Panels Could Slow Industry Growth by 66% – Bloomberg Sharing Economy: Why Blockchain Might Be Next Big Thing for Office Rental – Coin Telegraph Bitcoin, Ether Lead Digital Currency Slide


Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Its been a fairly unexciting session in Asia today following the mixed but still positive lead from Wall Street overnight. Most Asian share markets finished in the green, but only just as most traders and algos steer into the financial conferences tonight in London, inching and dicing on each word said by


Victorian immigration ponzi goes completely mad

By Leith van Onselen The ABS released its Australian demographic statistics for the December quarter of 2016, which revealed that Australia’s overall population growth rate has accelerated led by unprecedented growth in Victoria, which has once again obliterated records. According to the ABS, Australia’s population rose by 1.55% in the year to December 2016 to


Iron ore rockets as Li Keqiang backs growth

Dalian just went sick: Big Iron is following: The trigger appears to be a speech by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in which described the momentum of world economic recovery as “insufficient“: Anti-globalisation voices emerging World political risks on the rise Momentum of world economic recovery insufficient economic growth needs to ensure fairness, sustainability limiting trade


Abbott: Cut immigration to take pressure off houses and wages

He sure ain’t going away: Tony Abbott has delivered a stinging rebuke to the Turnbull Government sharpening his own vision for the country and politics in Australia, promising he is “in no hurry to leave public life because we need strong liberal conservative voices now, more than ever”. In an address delivered in Brisbane this


Census 2016: Rise and rise of generation rent

By Leith van Onselen As a teaser to next week’s Member’s Special Report examining the Census data as it pertains to the housing market, below are some interesting summary charts showing the change in the composition of home ownership and renting over the past 20-years at the national level. First, the overall home ownership rate


Bloxo sees wages boom, baby, boom!

From Bloxo today: Sentiment indicators show a stark gap between businesses and consumers. While surveyed business conditions are around decade-highs and business confidence is well above average, consumer confidence is below average. Importantly, it’s not just a confidence effect – growth in household spending has been sluggish. The main drivers appear to be weak growth


Westpac slams brakes on SMSF specufesting

Via the AFR: Westpac Group is set to whack self-managed superannuation fund property investors with tougher rates, policies and processes in the lead up to this weekend’s changes to caps on lucrative tax concessions being imposed by the federal government. The changes will also coincide with the Westpac and subsidiaries, Bank of Melbourne, BankSA, St


Every man and his dog says buy miners

First, Market Matters (whoever they are): According to Market Matters analysts it’s not a crazy idea. Miners traditionally outperform during the upcoming period and after considerable pressure there could be a buying opportunity in some mining names. “Locally the market continues to underperform with stocks down by 1 per cent last week versus the US


More warnings about unpaid internships slave labour

By Leith van Onselen A fortnight ago, several labour market experts raised concern about the proliferation of unpaid internships, which risked becoming a black market for slave labour. Today, The ABC has picked up on the theme: Unpaid internships are increasingly becoming the default way of beginning a professional career in Australia. According to the


Turnbull government to invest extra $500m in Victorian rail

By Leith van Onselen Amid anger within Victoria over the lack of infrastructure funding from Canberra, the Turnbull Government this morning announced that it would provide an additional $500 million in funding for Victoria’s regional rail network. From The Australian: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull this morning pledged an extra $500 million of federal funds in


Greens’ urban infill utopia will make our cities hotter

By Leith van Onselen Bloomberg has published an interesting article about how cities are facing swelter temperatures as climate change combines with the loss of green space to create a ‘heat-island’ effect: It’s so hot in Phoenix that American Airlines Group Inc has had to cancel scores of flights… The sweltering conditions, which have engulfed much of


The death of Australian housing affordability

By Leith van Onselen A ripper new report by LF Economics is out, entitled Parental Guidance Not Recommended: An Illustrated Guide to the Latest Trends in Affordability in the Australian Housing Market. It assesses the challenges new First Home Buyers (FHBs) and others face versus previous generations in not only achieving home ownership, but the financial risks many Australian


CoreLogic: 13% of apartments selling for a loss

By Leith van Onselen From CoreLogic’s latest Pain & Gain report comes news that 13.3% of apartments transacted across Australia in the March quarter sold at a loss: As shown above, New South Wales was the outlier, with every other apartment market in the mainland recording double-digit resale losses. Losses for houses were much lower


Coalition confronted with wipeout

From The Australian: Analysis by The Australian suggests the Coalition would lose 20 seats — four in NSW, nine in Queensland, two in South Australia and five in Western Australia — if the election matched the state-by-state swings shown in the quarterly Newspoll survey published this week. Three cabinet ministers — Peter Dutton, Christian Porter