Latest posts


The Aussie house price correction is not “orderly”

It’s the latest refrain of the housing spruikers. That the house price correction is “orderly” and therefore under control. I’ll report and you decide. If the correction were “orderly”, and therefore consistent with historical price falls, then at this stage it would already be flattening out instead of steepening markedly with Sydney now falling 3.4% per quarter


Domestic uni students crowded-out by foreign students

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Population Research Institute (APRI) has released an update to its November report on overseas students, entitled Australia’s higher education overseas student industry revisited, which analyses the Commonwealth Department of Education’s newly released 2017 student enrolment data, which revealed a “striking further increase in the share of commencing overseas students”. Below


Population ponzi causes shocking decline in Melbourne affordable rentals

By Leith van Onselen The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has released alarming new data showing a massive decline in affordable rental options across Melbourne. While the annual growth in median rents across Metropolitan Melbourne moderated to 3.2% in the year to September: It remains well above inflation (2.2%) as well as


Sydney rental vacancies rocket to 3.2%

By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy series for November, which revealed a 0.3% surge in the national vacancy rate over the month and a 0.1% increase over the year: Over the year, increases in vacancies were recorded in Sydney (+1.1%), Melbourne (+0.1%), Darwin (+1.2%), and Hobart (+0.1%), whereas Adelaide (-0.2%),


Links 19 December 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The stock market is on pace for its worst December since the Great Depression – CNBC It Was Easy for New Hedge Funds to Raise Money in 2018. Making It Was Harder – WSJ US credit markets dry up as volatility rattles investors – FT Jeffrey Gundlach says the


Macro Afternoon

A very dour mood across in Asia in response to the overnight slump on Wall Street, although the mangnitude wasn’t the same, the intent of taking risk off the table before the FOMC meeting is paralleled here. The Aussie dollar finally found some life but it’s playing catchup as USD is sold off across the


NSW Labor right China links turn nuclear

Via The Australian: The NSW Labor Party’s head office in Sydney has been raided by the Independent Commission Against Corruption today as part of an investigation into ALP donations. Officials of the NSW ICAC are believed to have searched the ALP’s Sussex Street office for financial documents linked to an annual party fundraising event called


Goldman: Euro (and AUD) to tank

Via Goldman: Question is whether EUR/USD is ready to resume downtrend everything down to the Aug. ’18 low was impulsive in nature. From August into year-end, the market entered a corrective phase, one that retraced/has so far held 38.2% at 1.1780. So far none of what has transpired on the recent decline from September has


Licence to whore for another six months

Via AFR: The sex scandal plaguing the Nationals has intensified after MP Andrew Broad quit Parliament altogether. Moments after his leader Michael McCormack suggested he “consider his future”, Mr Broad released a statement saying he would not recontest his safe Victoria rural seat of Mallee at the election, due in May. This will avoid another


WA mining lobby demands its coolies

By Leith van Onselen Western Australia’s mining sector continues to soften-up the government to open the floodgates for temporary foreign workers to fill invented ‘skills shortages’ because of reported rising wage costs and an imaginary lack of workers. From The West Australian: A growing skills shortage is threatening to derail billions of dollars in mining and


Lunatic RBA lifts AUD, slams yield curve

Minutes from the silly bastards at the RBA: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that conditions had remained positive, particularly in the major advanced economies, where growth had remained around or above potential and labour markets had continued to tighten. However, growth in a number of economies had


More Labor wages re-regulation

Labor appears set on an attempt to fix low wages via re-regulation rather than limiting immigration. Yesterday we got this, via The Australian: Bill Shorten says he’ll come down “like a tonne of bricks” on employers using 457 visas to fill jobs, rather than training Australians. He promises to work with the Australian trade union movement and


Bill Shorten goes all in ‘Big Australia’

By Leith van Onselen With Australia’s permanent migration program already an insane 180,000 in 2017-18 – more than double the level at the turn of the century: And net overseas migration (NOM) running at more than triple the historical average, which is projected to continue for decades to come: Labor’s national conference agreed to effectively double


ASIC takes Westpac back to court on responsible lending

Via The Australian: The corporate regulator is squaring up for a responsible lending case against Westpac Bank in May, after an embarrassing setback in the Federal Court last month. The Australian understands the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and Westpac will now face a case management meeting on April 12 and then attend an eight


NSW Budget Update hopelessly optimistic on stamp duty

By Leith van Onselen Following on from this morning’s post on the NSW Office of State Revenue’s (OSR) latest stamp duty data, which revealed a $1.2 billion (16%) decline in receipts in the year to October: The NSW Treasury has this morning released its Mid-Year Budget Update, which recorded a slight downgrade in overall stamp


WestConnex has NSW taxpayers bent over a barrel

By Leith van Onselen A NSW parliamentary review into WestConnex has slammed the project for lacking transparency and failing to meet best practice requirements: WestConnex has had a significant and pronounced impact on local communities and families. This has undoubtedly been a very challenging time for those affected… The committee has questions regarding the transparency of


Coalition’s grey bribes to lock empty nesters in family homes

By Leith van Onselen May’s Federal Budget contained various measures aimed at keeping older Australians in their homes, including: billions of dollars in funding for thousands of extra home-care packages; extending the Pensioner Work Bonus scheme, giving older Australians the ability to earn more money without affecting their benefits; and extending the Pension Loans Scheme


NSW Labor turns Big Australia defender

By Leith van Onselen With mass immigration opponent, Luke Foley, resigning from the NSW Labor Party’s leadership earlier last month, I was hoping that new leader Michael Daley would maintain the rage against the mass immigration influx that is destroying liveability in Sydney: Sadly, early indications are not good. Last month, Michael Daley appeared on


Essential: Labor galloping to victory

Via The Guardian: More than half of voters in the latest Guardian Essential poll believe Bill Shorten and Labor will win the next federal election. Only 21% think the Morrison government can recover from a horror year, and prevail at the polls in 2019. The disillusionment of Australian voters is also palpable in the final opinion survey


Scummo to offer nothing burger tax cut

Via The Australian: Scott Morrison will unveil $10.6 billion in tax cuts and targeted spending before next year’s election in a last-ditch effort to recast his government’s fortunes. With Newspoll showing the Coalition facing a crushing defeat, the Prime Minister will rely on the best budget numbers in a decade, revealed in yesterday’s mid-year economic