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MB Fund Podcast: Are Company Profits Booming or Busting? LIVE 12:30 AEDT

In today’s investment webinar (LIVE 12:30pm AEDT), MB Fund’s Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Head of Investments Damien Klassen, and Marketing Coordinator Jayden Stent uncover if Company Profits are booming or busting? On the agenda: Top down US Earnings Regional Earnings Sector earnings Inflation Individual stocks Investment outlook    Can’t make it to the

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Coalition finally admits CGT discount locks FHBs out of housing

Recall that Labor’s Bill Shorten promised to halve the capital gains tax (CGT) discount, aw well as restrict negative gearing to new builds, in the lead-up to the past two elections. Labor lost the election both times following a fierce scare campaign from the property lobby and the captured Coalition Government. More than two years

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Beijing frantic as Chinese property bust deepens

S&P is really warming into its job of being a pro-cyclical agent of destruction: A third of China’s property developers could see their liquidity “acutely strained” in the worst case scenario as weaker sentiment and new regulations weigh on their funding sources, said S&P Global Ratings. More than half of its rated portfolio of Chinese developers are

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Gerard Minack: Rebooting immigration will crush wage growth

Economist Gerard Minack has written a note warning that rebooting Australia’s mass immigration program will crush wage growth and prevent the RBA from achieving its wage targets, which will keep inflation lower for longer: Stagnant incomes and below-target inflation [over the last decade] were due to low wage growth. Wage growth was low because there

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Macro Morning

A very late selloff on Wall Street reversed risk sentiment overnight with European markets also pulling back, denying a follow through on a mid week surge. The bond market is where all the action is with curve flattening and the 10 year US Treasury yields pulling back firmly, this time finishing just above the 1.5%

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Victorian COVID cases and deaths soar

Victoria has recorded another 1923 new locally acquired COVID cases and a whopping 25 deaths: By comparison, NSW recorded only 293 locally acquired COVID cases and two deaths: The next chart plots daily cases across both states, with Victoria’s shooting back up: Active cases across both jurisdictions are shown below: Victoria’s positive test rate has

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Water security must be front and centre of immigration debate

Earlier this week I questioned why climate change activists and environmentalists refuse to question the planned reboot of the mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy, which will place increasing strain on Australia’s natural environment and make meeting the nation’s “zero net” emissions commitments by 2050 and impossible goal: While Australia’s emissions depend on many factors –

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Australian dollar rides the inflation panic

DXY eased overnight as EUR gained: Australian dollar rode the inflation panic: While commodities foretold the deflation shock to come: Big miners were thumped: EM stocks have rolled: Junk is still OK: The Treasury curve was hammered: That helped Growth but stocks were soft overall: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap Bank of Canada surprised markets

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2022 deflation shock takes shape

BTC cheerleader Jack Dorsey called the top for inflation earlier this week: Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening. — jack⚡️ (@jack) October 23, 2021 That’s ridiculous. 2022 is going to bring a deflation shock the likes of which the world has not seen since 2015.  Goldman: With used car prices rising sharply again

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ABS rental growth detaches from reality

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released consumer price index (CPI) data for the September quarter of 2021, which revealed that property rents across the combined capital cities are experiencing anaemic growth. Property rents rose only 0.2% of the quarter: Over the year to September 2021, rents rose only 0.4%: The next chart summarises

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Links 28 October 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: If This is a Wage-Price Spiral, Why Are Profits Soaring? – CEPR How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable – The Conversation Is College Worth It? A Comprehensive Return on Investment Analysis – Freopp Why your credit card company wants to give you crypto –

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are all lower on poorer risk sentiment as concerns about China’s property sector continue to grow. This is spilling over into sour sentiment for Eureopan and US stocks heading into the London open, while the USD is remaining relatively strong against the major currency pairs. Gold has slumped again, rejecting the overhead

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CoreLogic: Brisbane property is “booming”

Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, posted the following on LinkedIn regarding Brisbane’s property market: Boomin Brisbane! After auction clearance rates trended to record highs over the past few weeks, this week, Brisbane is set to host the largest number of auctions since December 2016… CoreLogic Australia indices are showing Brisbane is recording the

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Gittins: Australia’s housing market is rigged

Ross Gittins has written an interesting article explaining how Australia’s housing market is rigged: The rules of the home-ownership game are rigged in favour of existing home owners. That’s because they far outnumber aspiring home owners. And they’re not willing to give up their tax and other privileges to help the younger generation. Except, of

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WA the hold-out as hard borders crumble

The South Australian government’s COVID-19 reopening roadmap will allow fully vaccinated travellers from Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT to visit the state without having to quarantine from 23 November. Premier Steven Marshall says that 80% of SA residents aged 16+ are expected to be fully vaccinated by this date. However, SA has ruled

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Onshore international student numbers plunge 54%

Peter Hurley from the Mitchell Institute at Victoria University has published interesting data on the collapse in international student numbers since the pandemic began: Since March 2020, the number of international student visa holders has fallen by 205,854, or 33.5%, according to the most recent government data. Complicating this picture is that many international students will

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MS: Fire an ice equity correction approaches

Morgan Stanley is still making the most sense on Wall Street with daylight second: Over the past few weeks we have discussed the increasing probability for a colder winter but a later start than previously expected. In other words, our Fire and Ice narrative remains very much intact, but timing is a bit more uncertain

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Public health experts warn against Dan’s draconian vaccine segregation

Public health experts have questioned the need to lock unvaccinated people out of services once 90% of Victorians aged 12-plus are fully vaccinated. Premier Daniel Andrews has indicated people who aren’t vaccinated against COVID-19 may be barred from accessing all but the most basic services until 2023: “Whether it’s a bookshop, a shoe shop, a

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Chinese energy bubble bust resumes

The Chinese energy bubble continued to burst yesterday as coking coal futures were put to the sword again: Given the collapse in Chinese steel output, this was the craziest of the energy bubbles. Really, the only reason for its bid was some possible switching from thermal to coking coal in power consumption but that was

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More defaults as Chinese property crisis rolls on

The Chinese property developer crisis still shows no signs of easing despite incremental efforts to fix it. Policymakers are applying the CCP jawbone: Chinese authorities told billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to alleviate China Evergrande Group’s deepening debt crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. Beijing’s directive to the Evergrande

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NSW COVID cases jump

Victoria has recorded another 1534 new locally acquired COVID cases and 13 deaths: By comparison, NSW recorded 304 locally acquired COVID cases and three deaths: The next chart plots daily cases across both states: The next chart plots active cases across both jurisdictions: According to COVIDBaseAU, 1.84% of tests in Victoria came back positive over