VIC records 394 new COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 10

Victoria recorded another 394 COVID-19 infections overnight and a record 17 more deaths: However, Victoria’s infection rate appears to have passed its peak: NSW recorded only 10 new cases and, unlike Victoria, has done a good job stopping the spread: Victoria now has 7,854 active COVID-19 cases, 96.2% of the nation’s total. By contrast, NSW

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VIC records 466 new COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 9

Victoria has recorded another 466 COVID-19 infections overnight alongside another 12 deaths: The curve looks to finally be flattening: NSW only recorded 9 new cases and looks to have the situation under control: The contrast with Victoria is stark: Victoria now has 7,808 active COVID-19, 96.2% of the nation’s total. By contrast, NSW only has


A Melbourne nurse with COVID-19 tells his story

My experience as a nurse with covid in Melbourne. From my hotel quarantine.Please share so we can beat this quickly. Posted by Daniel Collins on Wednesday, 5 August 2020 Above is a must watch video from second year nurse at Royal Melbourne Hospital, Daniel Collins, who is in hotel quarantine suffering from COVID-19. Daniel Collins speaks


Weekend Links: 8-9 August 2020

Koki Bay, William Dobell, 1951, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets Dollar slump lifts U.S. bond returns for foreigners – Reuters Dollar most oversold in 40 years, says Morgan Stanley; exits short position – Reuters This ‘dire’ economic situation ‘deserves to be called a depression — a pandemic depression’ – MarketWatch US, China


Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Risk is taking a nosedive going into the afternoon session here in Asia in the wake of Trump’s executive order around another Chinese app, with USD coming back against most of the undollars and stock markets getting very nervous before tonight’s US unemployment print (NFP). Gold has surrounded some ground from its


MB Fund Podcast: Will Technology Driven Deflation be ‘The Price of Tomorrow’? With Jeff Booth

Join us as we discuss Technology’s ever-growing role in the world, the resulting deflation it will generate, and the major structural changes to the economy as we know it caused by this. We discuss these changes in industries it’s already happened in, as well as some likely candidates such as energy and automotive. We wrap


US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 1.58 million non-farm payroll jobs (+1.47 million private sector), and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 10.5%. The usual indicators are somewhat useless again this month due to the


Why Melbourne property prices will plummet

CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, has done a good job explaining why Melbourne dwelling values are falling at a much faster pace than the rest of the nation: Melbourne has so far seen the largest cumulative declines in property values since March (3.5%). This was led by a 5.2% decline across the Inner East


Joye: Default tsunami coming in March

Good work from Chris Joye today: One significant concern relates to record unofficial arrears in illiquid and subordinated bonds comprising “securitised” portfolios of Australian home loans, SME loans and consumer loans that are packaged up and sold to investors through residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and asset-backed securities (ABS). We are particularly anxious about RMBS and


Auction market continues fade out

CoreLogic has released its final auction results for the week, with the clearance rate continuing to trend lower after bouncing following the first lockdown:   According to CoreLogic: Last week saw the final weighted average clearance rate improve across a lower volume of auctions and fewer withdrawn auctions. There were 1,154 capital city homes scheduled


VIC records another 450 COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 11

Victoria has recorded another 450 COVID-19 infections alongside another 11 deaths: NSW, by contrast, recorded only 11 new infections and continues to do a far better job containing the outbreak: Victoria has 7,637 active COVID-19 infections, 96.1% of the nation’s total. By contrast, NSW has 274 active cases, 3.5% of the nation’s total: Victoria has


More gold bullishness

Via Bloomie: With no imminent end to collapsing real yields – which just hit a new record low -1.10%, the side effects of financial repression warn of stagflation, asset bubbles and policy impotence. Fresh lows for U.S. 10-year real yields this week show a trap door opened by growing economic angst, climbing inflation expectations and


Australia’s bedpan economy revealed

One of the biggest changes witnessed across the Australian labour market has been the strong growth of jobs in the Healthcare & Social Assistance sector, which expanded by a whopping 640,000 jobs since the Global Financial Crisis: Increasing its share of Australian jobs from around 10% to more than 14%: Seek has released a new


CBA: Australia to regain 50,000 jobs in July

CBA’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, forecasts that Australia’s unemployment rate will lift to 7.9% in July despite regaining 50,000 jobs: We expect employment to rise by 50k in July. We expect the unemployment rate to lift to 7.9% on a 0.5ppt rise in the participation to 64.5%. We do not expect the reported


The trivial detail upon which Lunatic RBA optimism hangs

Here it is from Luci Ellis as she spruiks the new dart-throwing forecast: Closure of international borders to most movements of people is affecting Australia’s international trade and will continue to do so over the forecast period. International tourism will be infeasible until borders reopen, and will probably only recover slowly. This will affect both


Early superannuation release no disaster for retirement incomes

The Grattan Institute has shot down Paul Keating’s, Labor’s, and the superannuation industry’s incessant scaremongering over the Morrison Government’s early superannuation release policy, claiming that it will only reduce retirement incomes by around 1% for the typical worker: Policy makers can only justify forcibly lowering someone’s living standards during their working life – by lifting


Lancet: COVID-19 causes long term brain damage

Yeh, let it spread because Scummo says we should. Via The Lancet: Abstract Background Increasing evidence supported the possible neuro-invasion potential of SARS-CoV-2. However, no studies were conducted to explore the existence of the micro-structural changes in the central nervous system after infection. We aimed to identify the existence of potential brain micro-structural changes related


Sandstone universities’ China maelstrom widens

Wow. How underhanded is this? On the one hand, UNSW is busy apologising to Australians for being a CCP-Nazi apologist: The University of NSW has apologised after tweets about the Hong Kong-China situation, featuring a leading human rights expert, were deleted after an online campaign from Chinese students and media. UNSW found itself at the


A mortgage war of attrition

According to the Reserve Bank’s latest indicator lending rates, average mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level on record at just 2.35% for 3-year fixed and 3.65% for discount variable: These are average rates of course, and much better deals – under 2% – can be gained from specific lenders, with juicy cash backs


MOAR DoleHider easy!

Via AFR: The cost of the JobKeeper wage subsidy will increase by more than $15 billion due to the hammer blow to business caused by the Victorian coronavirus crisis. The $15.6 billion JobKeeper blowout, which will take the total cost of the scheme to $102.2 billion this financial year, is due to two factors. First,


Daily iron ore price update ($130)

Iron ore prices for August 6, 2020: Spot scorcher. Paper too. Steel is muted but OK. OK, so get this: Rising car and excavator sales in China further buoyed sentiment, analysts at Beijing-based Sinosteel Futures Co Ltd said in a note. “Good car sales data shows that domestic demand is improving, and excavator sales also


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another record high on Wall Street, pushing the risk complex even higher and really starting to diverge from other global stock markets that are doing a better job at discounting risk through the pandemic. No new fiscal measures agreed to by Congress and the White House either, going into tonight’s NFP print,


Virus suppression will break “Australia”

Let’s put aside the debate about whether or not Victoria should or shouldn’t crush the virus. Instead, let’s focus on where it is actually going right now. Victoria’s lockdown is backsliding already, under assault from rent-seekers that long ago put aside doing business for lobbying. At rentier headquarters, the AFR: The Victorian Andrews government has


Services PMI shockingly weak

Despite the reopening, services activity is still falling. This is a grim sign from AIG: Check this out: I find this report hard to believe. The reopening should have lifted activity in services more than this. Given there are a few N/As one wonders if AIG is adjusting it correctly. If not, we’re fooked. Full