Has the Australian dollar already topped?

Friday night saw more DXY weakness: Driven largely by EUR strength: The Aussie pulled back against both: And EM forex: Gold took off, reaffirming more USD weakness: Brent was pounded: Base metals held up: Big miners didn’t: EM stocks sold: But high yield rallied: US bonds were bought: And European: Stocks eased in the US

Latest posts


One Nation holds the keys to Canberra

Over the weekend, Paul Kelly nicely wrapped where our political parties have come to: The Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader operate in a new politics. It is the world of Donald Trump, social fragmentation, fake news and discredited elites. But they are opposites, with rival political and emotional views of the nation’s mood. Turnbull,


Population ponzi to gobble up Melbourne’s water supply

By Leith van Onselen Infrastructure Victoria CEO, Michel Masson, on Friday called on the state to take its time when deciding large infrastructure projects, while also arguing that it is often better to improve existing assets than to build expensive new ones. From The AFR: Australia should abandon its “childish” attitude of wanting new infrastructure


Academic turns from mass immigration skeptic to booster

By Leith van Onselen The Australian’s Judith Sloan penned the following on Friday about the heated debate that she had with University of Melbourne demographer, Peter McDonald, with respect to Australia’s turbo-charged immigration intake [my emphasis]: I was engaged in a relatively heated but civil discussion of immigration with University of Melbourne demographer Peter McDonald


Former premiers rebuild public trust in banking

Anna Bligh is hard at work rebuilding trust in banking in South Australia: The Australian Bankers’ Association will campaign against the South Australian government-imposed bank tax until the state goes to the polls next March if it is not defeated in parliament, including daily advertising in local papers and stationing an action group in Adelaide. …ABA


Auction clearances continue to strengthen

CoreLogic released its auction report yesterday, which reported a continued firming in the national auction clearance rate to 74.8% from 72.4% last weekend, and was also above the 71.5% recorded in the same weekend last year: Auction volumes nationally were 1,712 – way above the 1,329 recorded in the same weekend last year. As shown above, Sydney’s


How do the rich get richer quicker?

There are a few studies that show that the richer you are the better your investment returns – Thomas Piketty the French economist is probably the most well-known author in this space. A recent Vox article digs into these returns using detailed Swedish data and essentially finds the same thing. The top 5-10% of households


Links 24 July 2017

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Suddenly Becoming a Bond Manager in the Credit Crisis – Bloomberg Multi-party kleptocracies rather than illiberal democracies – Global Inequalities 10-Year Returns of U.S. Median Active and Passive Managers – PIMCO The heat goes on: Earth sets 9th straight monthly record – AP Venezuela’s Perfect Storm for Oil May


Weekend Reading 22-23 July 2017

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The New “Supply-Side Economics” Fueling Asset Bubbles – Macro Mom What the Decline of the Dollar Means – NY Times IMF Falls Short of Transparency Rules as Key Discussions Remain Secret – WSJ The power of populists – The Economist Americas: Trump’s Threat to Jail Clinton Also Targets Democracy’s


Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker The RBA’s inability to jawbone markets was the only big news in the Asian Friday session to finish the week as the USD remained relatively steady after selling off overnight on the expanded investigation into Trump’s collusion with Russia. Meanwhile the Aussie dollar and yields on Aussie bonds fell on the back


Is Australian inequality rising?

By Leith van Onselen Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research deputy director, Roger Wilkins, has today labelled “patently false” the claim by Labor leader Bill Shorten that inequality in Australia is rising. From The AFR: Professor Wilkins told the Economic and Social Outlook Conference that the Australian Bureau of Statistics data on which


Death to the Death Tax!

The front page of the Australian is highlighting that the Labor party is starting to make inequality an issue for the next election, and Leith ran a post yesterday about the Labor party and a possible inheritance tax for next year. I find the whole inheritance tax debate fascinating. In my experience Australian’s have 3


Anatomy of an Auckland housing disaster

By Leith van Onselen Back in March, New Zealand’s Productivity Commission (PC) has released a report entitled “Urban planning – moving beyond the wheel spin”, which basically concluded that Auckland’s housing system is under siege from the combination of rapid population growth butting heads with a dysfunctional planning system, which is unable to cope with