Chinese house prices for October are out and the path is for the Cold War 2.0 growth offset. As indutrial prouction takes a tariff hit, China’s going to allow house prices to rise and build more empty apartments. October prices were up 1%: 64 of 70 cities are rising at 4% or above: Only a
From RBA deputy chair today: Assessing the Effects of Housing Lending Policy Measures Today I will summarise the Bank’s assessment of the various measures put in place to address the risks around housing lending. I will draw on Chapter 5 of the recent Financial Stability Review (FSR). I think it is important in terms of accountability that we
People fuss over housing being expensive without ever really thinking about what their ideal world would be. My ideal world is one where everyone has the benefits of outright homeownership—few ongoing housing costs with tenure security. One way to get those desirable social outcomes is for everyone to own their own home outright. This can
By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) released a report arguing that short-term letting (STL) portals like Airbnb account for one in seven rental properties in Sydney’s and Melbourne’s inner-city and beachside suburbs. This report featured the below chart showing that there were just over 20,000 Airbnb listings
By Leith van Onselen As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for October, which registered a solid 32,800 increase in total employment but no change in the headline unemployment rate (still 5.0%), driven by a 0.1% rebound in labour force participation. In trend terms, the unemployment rate
By Leith van Onselen Last month’s collapse of fashion retailer, Roger David, will sadly see the loss of 500 jobs by Christmas from its 57 stores: Roger David will close its doors for good within weeks, after administrators were unable to find new owners for the collapsed retailer… all stores would be closed by early to
This morning’s still solid jobs report was enough puke Aussie short positions: Bonds are sold too. They look like a bargain to me: XJO can’t catch a bid: Big Iron is down: big Gas too: Big Gold is better: Big Banks are still free falling: NAB and WBC especially: Big Realty is also soft: The
By Leith van Onselen Former Treasury Secretary, John Stone, has urged the Morrison Government to cut Australia’s “far too large” immigration program: A major source of criticism of the government — and a major source of support for otherwise fringe parties such as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, the Australian Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats —
The ABS has released its labour market report for October, which reveals that unemployment remains flat at 50.% despite a 32,800 lift in employment (mostly full-time). However, growth in hours worked was weak: The key points from the release are: TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 25,400 to 12,665,800. Unemployment decreased 7,600 to 680,300. Unemployment
By Leith van Onselen Last weekend, CoreLogic released its preliminary auction clearance rates, which revealed the following results: Today, CoreLogic has released its final auction results, which reported a large 3.5% decline in the national auction clearance rate to 43.3%, with Sydney’s auction clearance rate diving 6.3% to just 42.1% and Melbourne’s falling 2.1% to
By Leith van Onselen Over recent years, a swathe of economists have warned the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence could replace many of today’s jobs, leading to an even larger pool of underemployed and underutilised workers. Last year, the construction sector came into automation’s view with FastBrick’s Hadrian X bricklaying machine capable of laying
This week’s webinar (12:30pm AEST, Thursday 15 Nov) we have a full house in Leith, David, Damien and Tim as we take a deep dive into the quantum of Australian debt, whether we are in a bubble and the after effects of deleveraging. Bubbles – Classifying which type of bubble we are in – Identifying the key
In a lot of the earnings calls that we’ve been listening to, US executives have been having a bet each way on Cold War 2.0. They’ve been trying adhere to US demands without offending China. We see this mindset as a halfway house towards something more hawkish. From the FT today: In an America that
By Leith van Onselen For several years, economists have projected a rebound in wages growth as Australia’s unemployment falls towards the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), which the RBA claims is around 5.0%. Indeed, the Federal Budget explicitly forecast a sharp rise in wages growth as unemployment falls to a projected 5.25% for the
By Leith van Onselen When the architect of Australia’s compulsory superannuation system, Paul Keating, appeared on ABC’s 7.30 Report, he argued that raising Australia’s superannuation guarantee (i.e. compulsory superannuation contributions) from 9.5% to 12% would not lower take home wages: LEIGH SALES: There might be some Australians watching who are saying, “Well, if we are
What a fool, via Domainfax: The Morrison government has told Indonesian ministers there is “less than 5 per cent” chance it will go ahead with a divisive new policy on Israel, in a comment that could clear the way for a diplomatic retreat to seal a $16.5 billion free trade agreement. Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto
By Leith van Onselen It seems Melbournians are finally cottoning on to the direct link between Melbourne’s immigration-fuelled population explosion, according to a regular opinion survey by Sydney University’s Institute of Transport and Logistics. From The Age: “There is a clear sense [from the survey] that accelerated population growth in the past decade, driven mainly
By Leith van Onselen Uber-wealthy property investor and media director at the Seven Network, Bruce McWilliam, is not happy about Labor’s negative gearing policy. You see, McWilliam is one of Sydney’s biggest property investors with a portfolio of at least 20 eastern suburbs properties worth an estimated $200 million. And he believes it’s unfair that Labor’s policy will
The Australian rightly questions the Frydenberg bank bailout today, at The Australian: Several Liberal MPs were critical of the measures because of the increased government intervention. “I remember the Kevin Rudd bank for infrastructure and how much it was ridiculed,” one MP said on the basis of anonymity. “My views don’t change radically because it
Iron ore price for November 14, 2018: Spot down. Paper held. Steel up on bad news is good news as China slows. I still us falling here.
Gotti is onto it: The share markets’ danger signals are telling the Reserve Bank economists to leave their Martin Place bunker and go out into the real world. Go and talk to bank branch people (not CEOs) and learn how APRA rules are cutting bank lending by at least 20 over cent but usually by
By Chris Becker Another poor night for equity markets with news of the Brexit deal impacting European bourses in a perverse way, rallying before realising it’s not that good and selling off into the close. The US CPI print did not cause a flutter with currencies reacting more to the EZ CPI and GDP prints
Paging the RBA! Attention RBA! One of the less amusing features of the unwinding property cycle is the invisible Chinese dimension. This is becoming a serious issue. Indeed it’s possible that it the key driver of property price falls yet it is ignored and invisible. After all, the boom in Chinese inflows was ignored and
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its latest Boom-to-Bust Report, which projects heavy losses for Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin property in 2019: SQM’s base case forecast is for dwelling prices to fall between -6% to -3%, which is a continuation of the current falls of 4.5% over the past 12 months. Sydney and
By Leith van Onselen The treasonous ACTU has backed Paul Keating’s call to lift Australia’s superannuation guarantee (i.e. compulsory superannuation contributions) from 9.5% to 12%, claiming it would ensure workers retire with dignity: …the average superannuation balance today for men is $112,000 and women $68,000 and only 20 per cent of current retirees are fully
By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s wages price index released by the ABS revealed a firming of annual wages growth to a still-anaemic 2.2%: When adjusted for underlying inflation, real wages firmed to 0.4% growth in the year to September: However, there remains a big disconnect between the private and public sectors. The private sector –
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Casting Light on Central Bank Digital Currencies – IMF The seven deadly paradoxes of cryptocurrency – Bank Underground WeWork’s Rise: How a Sublet Start-Up Is Taking Over – NY Times Triple B corporate bond bulls aren’t blinking – FT Big companies are pushing governments around – FT Five US
Stocks across the region were mixed today with the local bourse falling nearly 2% on the back of another rout in banks, while the trifecta of Chinese data also proved a little dicey even though on most metrics they were good figures. The oil price and their effect on energy stocks plus the Brexit deal
Business Insider’s David Scutt going all doe-eyed for house prices today: Australians, collectively, think now is the best time to buy a home in over three years, encouraged by lower prices, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index in the Westpac-MI Australian Consumer Sentiment report surged by 11.8% in November,
