Simon Kuestenmacher is Director of Research at The Demographics Group and is described as “a rising star in the world of demography”. The Demographics Group is the private enterprise headed by self-proclaimed “unabashed supporter of a bigger Australia” Bernard Salt, who has spent years lobbying for mass immigration. Kuestenmacher has been frequently cited in the mainstream
With real Australian wages falling to December 2014 levels amid the spike in inflation: The Fair Work Commission (FWC) has flagged the possibility of awarding a larger increase in the minimum wage for the lowest-paid workers and a smaller rise for people on higher minimum award rates: At a minimum wage hearing on Wednesday, Fair
CoreLogic has released its final auction results for last weekend with the nation’s clearance rate falling to 60.1% – the lowest level since August 2021. The decline in the nation’s clearance rate was driven by Sydney, which fell to only 53.8% – the lowest reading in more than two years. According to CoreLogic: The busiest
While the gas cartel is busy forcing Australian energy bills up by sending our gas offshore, turns out the industry also pays minimal tax. According to a new report from The Australia Institute (TAI), major gas companies haven’t paid income tax in seven years despite earning $138 billion from their Australian operations: New analysis of
In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr, and Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith will discuss whether markets are correctly pricing in a large stimulus package from China and what the consequences will be if it is not forthcoming. Topics on the agenda today: Is the great China
A nice little summary from Credit Suisse. Sentiment is not everything. For me, the most important indicator is that credit spreads lead the bounce. — We still have a cautious view of equities. We have the following concerns: Recession risk remains very high. We believe that US GDP needs to slow to 1%topush up the
The ABS has just released its labour force survey for April, which reported that Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since August 1974 at just 3.9%, with underemployment also falling to its lowest level since 2008 at just 6.1%: The key movements are shown below: In particular: Unemployment rate down slightly to
The global recession is underway and it’s coming to an economic zone near you. Goldman’s financial conditions indexes are pointing the way. Global FCI has eased thanks to the bear market rally but remains tight: Sadly for it, the US is far too loose. Europe is tighter so the ECB is not going to get
One of the big conundrums arising from the pandemic is the sharp fall in rental vacancy rates across Australia despite negative net overseas migration. Logically, the loss of hundreds-of-thousands of migrants should have seen Australia’s rental vacancy rate rise. However, vacancy rates instead plummeted. One plausible explanation is that Australian’s desire for additional space has
The situation has gone from bad to worse for Australia’s residential building industry. Following the recent collapses of major Australian construction firms Condev, ABG Group, Probuild and Privium, giant Metricon is now facing a similar fate: On Wednesday, it was reported that Metricon was in emergency talks with clients after falling into financial strife just
Here’s what the Lunatic RBA said in Minutes this week: Turning to domestic economic conditions, members observed that price pressures were intensifying and there was upward pressure on wages. Activity and conditions in the labour market had been resilient in the face of global and domestic supply shocks, and strong underlying momentum was expected to
While the business lobby, its captured media, and the Coalition are all scaremongering about a ‘wage-price spiral’ if the minimum wage lifts in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Jim Stanford from the Centre for Future Work has instead argued that “profit-price inflation” is the far bigger concern: De-unionisation, insecure work, and deregulation of
Well the bounceback is finished and then some with Wall Street collapsing overnight in its worst run in nearly two years, with the NASDAQ losing nearly 5% in a single session. Sell in May and go away anyone? This was all about inflation concerns as the latest UK, Euro and Canadian inflation prints spiked above
The ferrous complex was pounded on May 18, 2021: Rebar futures are breaking down: With the Chinese property bust getting worse by the day, and supply set to rebound materially, the downside risk is obvious. But, I still think it will probably take a broader commodity capitulation to bring sanity back to these markets. The
Yes, it is a non-stop nightmare for the Chinese property market as “houses are for living in, not speculation”. The great adjustment has so far been confined largely to construction volumes over prices but no more! Late yesterday China released its latest 70-city guide to prices and kapow! April price falls were modest at -0.2%
Everything but DXY, that is: AUD was pulverised: Oil fell: Metals too: Big miners reversed: EM stocks gave way: Global junk is screaming RECESSION AHEAD: The Treasury curve was steamrolled: And stocks were smashed: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US housing starts in April remained elevated, at an annualised 1.724m (est. 1.756m, prior 1.728m revised
The latest Australian interest rate forecast from the futures market tips the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the official cash rate (OCR) to 2.7% by the end of this year, peaking at 3.4% by mid-2023: If the market’s projection proved correct, this would be the equivalent of another nine 0.25% interest rate hikes over
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: JPMorgan Chase shareholders reject options bonus for CEO Jamie Dimon – Market Watch Crypto Billionaires Lose All of their Fortune to the Crypto Crash – Cryptolka Bitcoin Washout Is Leaving Mom-and-Pop Buyers Holding the Bag – Valkyrie Crypto Funds Fed’s Evans wants smaller U.S. rate hikes by July or
Asian share markets are doing relatively well given the continued bounceback on overseas markets overnight, although Chinese shares are unstable again after a big move higher yesterday. Currency markets are pushing back against the very strong USD although the Australian dollar has slipped back down to the 70 level. Oil prices are also retreating slightly
ANZ Bank had forecast in February that dwelling prices would rise by 8% cent in 2022, followed by a 6% decline in 2023. However, ANZ says the prospect of aggressive monetary policy tightening means that it now expects dwelling prices to fall by 3% in 2022 and 8% in 2023. ANZ economists have forecast the
Analysis by the Australian National University (ANU) suggests that families on higher incomes will benefit the most from the child-care policies of both Labor and the Coalition. The analysts shows that the wealthiest 20% of households will save an average of $2,547 a year under Labor’s policy. In contrast, the Coalition’s child-care policy will result
The mood among Australian consumers continues to worsen, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index plunging to its lowest level since mid August 2020 when Australia was in the early stages of the pandemic: Four of the five confidence subindices dropped. ‘Current financial conditions’ fell 4.4%, while ‘future financial conditions’ dropped 0.4%. ‘Current economic conditions’
Westpac with the note. What’s “prudent” about tightening into tradable inflation, stagnant wages, and a global bust, Bill? — Recently Westpac revised down its growth forecast for 2022 from 5.5% to 4.5%. That reflected the sharp increase in the cost of living as headline inflation lifted by 5.1% in the year to March 2022, including
Prime Minister Scott Morrison yesterday attacked Labor for claiming that the Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to borrow up to 40% of superannuation to purchase their first home would “blow up the housing market”: [Morrison] took a swipe at Labor’s criticism of the policy, saying the party had “lost touch completely” after it
Australian wage growth missed economists’ expectations in the March quarter of 2022, according to new data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Total wages grew by only 0.65% in the March quarter, missing analyst’s expectations of 0.8% growth. Private sector wages grew by 0.65% over the quarter, whereas public sector wages grew
