CoreLogic: Brisbane property is “booming”

Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, posted the following on LinkedIn regarding Brisbane’s property market: Boomin Brisbane! After auction clearance rates trended to record highs over the past few weeks, this week, Brisbane is set to host the largest number of auctions since December 2016… CoreLogic Australia indices are showing Brisbane is recording the

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WA the hold-out as hard borders crumble

The South Australian government’s COVID-19 reopening roadmap will allow fully vaccinated travellers from Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT to visit the state without having to quarantine from 23 November. Premier Steven Marshall says that 80% of SA residents aged 16+ are expected to be fully vaccinated by this date. However, SA has ruled


Onshore international student numbers plunge 54%

Peter Hurley from the Mitchell Institute at Victoria University has published interesting data on the collapse in international student numbers since the pandemic began: Since March 2020, the number of international student visa holders has fallen by 205,854, or 33.5%, according to the most recent government data. Complicating this picture is that many international students will


MS: Fire an ice equity correction approaches

Morgan Stanley is still making the most sense on Wall Street with daylight second: Over the past few weeks we have discussed the increasing probability for a colder winter but a later start than previously expected. In other words, our Fire and Ice narrative remains very much intact, but timing is a bit more uncertain


Public health experts warn against Dan’s draconian vaccine segregation

Public health experts have questioned the need to lock unvaccinated people out of services once 90% of Victorians aged 12-plus are fully vaccinated. Premier Daniel Andrews has indicated people who aren’t vaccinated against COVID-19 may be barred from accessing all but the most basic services until 2023: “Whether it’s a bookshop, a shoe shop, a


Chinese energy bubble bust resumes

The Chinese energy bubble continued to burst yesterday as coking coal futures were put to the sword again: Given the collapse in Chinese steel output, this was the craziest of the energy bubbles. Really, the only reason for its bid was some possible switching from thermal to coking coal in power consumption but that was


More defaults as Chinese property crisis rolls on

The Chinese property developer crisis still shows no signs of easing despite incremental efforts to fix it. Policymakers are applying the CCP jawbone: Chinese authorities told billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to alleviate China Evergrande Group’s deepening debt crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. Beijing’s directive to the Evergrande


NSW COVID cases jump

Victoria has recorded another 1534 new locally acquired COVID cases and 13 deaths: By comparison, NSW recorded 304 locally acquired COVID cases and three deaths: The next chart plots daily cases across both states: The next chart plots active cases across both jurisdictions: According to COVIDBaseAU, 1.84% of tests in Victoria came back positive over


Macro Morning

Last night saw equity markets twitch moods with European bourses surging while Wall Street treaded water in the wake of more tech earnings, and while the latter did put in new nominal highs, its was literally only a handful of points. The USD remained strong against Euro and Pound Sterling while commodity currencies were a


Australian dollar firms into inflation

DXY was firm again last night as EUR fell: The UAD had another strong night on today’s inflation print. A big yawn for me: Oil and gold fell: Base metals too on signs China is lifting metals processing output: Big miners fell as well: EM stocks have stalled: Junk bounced: But the Treasury curve looks


Sly ScoMo delivers net-zero

Does PM Morrison not see that we can see? Or are his instincts for today’s tribal politics spot on and he knows all that he needs is a fig leaf for followers to hide behind? The Crikey wrap is succinct: Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s long-awaited climate plan, called “The Australian Way”, has no detail and no modelling


Even The Guardian wants Labor to reset Australian immigration

For years we have watched The Guardian defend Australia’s mass immigration program, arguing that immigration doesn’t suppress wages and doesn’t strain infrastructure, among other things. The Guardian’s economic poster boy, Greg Jericho, has also likened any criticism of Australia’s immigration program to “racism” and “dog whistling”: “Immigration – because there are many desperate to hate


Links 27 October 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Is College Worth It? A Comprehensive Return on Investment Analysis – Freopp Asia-Pacific stocks mixed as HSBC earnings beat expectations; oil prices rise – CNBC Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition – Inet Inflation in the 21st Century: Taking Down the Inflationary Straw Man of the 1970s


Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are mixed again with Japanese markets surging, Chinese markets retracing and Australian markets doing 2/5ths of nothing. The USD is remaining relatively strong although the Aussie and Kiwi are coming back as the Euro remains flat while gold is holding above the $1800USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin is teetering just above


In defence of Novak Djokovic

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has warned reigning Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic that he won’t be allowed into Melbourne to contest the 2022 tournament unless he is fully vaccinated against COVID: The appearance of the world No.1 at the Australian Open looks certain to rely on him being fully vaccinated after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews


Immigration charlatans capture Australia’s political system

Hot on the heels of Crispin Hull’s comprehensive weekend demolition of Australia’s cabal of mass immigration charlatans, which have shamelessly captured Australia’s political system, Judith Sloan has entered the fold delivering a similar rebuke: Of all the public policy areas in which the views of ordinary folk are continuously trampled by the preferences of the


Australian property market September 2021 update

September 2021 Australian property market affordability update Australian property market prices continued to climb over the last month, with the past six months seeing some of the strongest growth on record. Mortgage fixed interest rates rose slightly, standard variable rates fell slightly but remain significantly above fixed rates.  There are some extraordinary divergences in affordability.


Goods to services hand-off begins

Nordea with a snippet: One likely underappreciated driver of so-called supply chain issues stem from demand-side issues. The initial shock from the pandemic depressed demand both for goods and services. However, already by June 2020 US goods consumption had surged way above trend. If you can’t consume services as you’re locked into your apartment –


For Indian international students, education is immigration

A new study by IDP Connect reveals how the primary motivation for Indian students to study in Australia is to gain permanent residency and work rights: IDP Connect’s New Horizons research shows international students consider migration incentives and employment opportunities when choosing where, what and how to study. “We’ve seen a significant decrease in interest from Indian students looking to


Business confidence soars on reopening

From Roy Morgan Research: This month, October 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 10.7pts (+10.2%) to 115.3. This is the biggest increase in Business Confidence so far during 2021 and comes as long-running lockdowns have ended in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne and the ACT. Business Confidence is a significant 16.6pts (+16.8%) higher than a year


COVID cases continue to improve

Victoria has recorded 1510 new locally acquired COVID cases and four deaths: By contrast, NSW has recorded 282 locally acquired cases and one death: The next chart plots daily cases across both jurisdictions: Active cases are shown below: Victoria’s positive test rate remains high at 2.71%, according to COVIDBaseAU: However, in good news, Victoria’s Reff