Australian Politics


Latham gets the last laugh

Chris Bowen via Domain today: “We need to remind ourselves how to talk to the base, which is not inner city,” Bowen says in an interview. “If you look at the election, wealthy areas swung to us and poorer areas swung away from us. “When you consider our agenda was fairly redistributive, that’s pretty extraordinary.


How to destroy ScoMo in eighteen months

Via the AFR: Scott Morrison’s shock win in the federal election may have been delivered by the “battlers” – non-university educated voters in lower income brackets – and Christians. ANU professor Ben Phillips found that electorates with a lower percentage of persons with bachelor degrees and income greater than $100,000, and a higher percentage of


Chinese Communist Party greets ScoMo with the slap

Via the Communist Party of China foghorn: The surprise victory of Australia’s Liberal National coalition on Saturday gives Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party a third term in government. But apart from delivering his campaign promises to the Australian people, of which he made few, Morrison may also need to recalibrate his country’s relations with


Labor leadership turns into three horse race

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has just thrown his hat into the ring to contest Labor’s leadership, turning it into a three horse race between him, Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers. From The Australian: The Australian has confirmed Chris Bowen will run as the Right candidate for the Labor leadership… Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese has brushed


Steve Bannon sinks the dagger into Labor “elites”

Via The Australian comes Steve Bannon: Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon says Labor’s Bill Shorten “snatched ­defeat from the jaws of victory” ­because he pandered to inner-city elites at the expense of ordinary Australian families. “It’s the little guy who is the backbone of civic society but who is not outspoken … they


How Labor lost Middle Australia

Cross-posted from Patreon: I’m sure like most of you – you are scratching your head to explain what happened last night, and how Bill Shorten lost the Federal Election (when only months ago most people thought he would romp it home in a landslide). Read on and enjoy my thoughts: 1. Climate Change isn’t the


A hat tip for Chris Joye

Got give credit where it’s due, via Chris Joye: During the week I advised my investors, media colleagues and friends that it would not be surprising if Scott Morrison won the election comfortably. For months this column argued that the betting markets and political pundits were wrong in assuming ScoMo had no chance. Indeed, it


History is written by the victors

My day job is a mix of quantitative and fundamental investment analysis. What that essentially means is that I spend my time looking for situations where the numbers don’t match the narrative – and I can’t help but notice that in the Australian Federal election result the narrative and the numbers are miles apart. Scott


Labor begins rebuild poorly

Day one and it is reading the tea leaves all wrong at The Guardian: Anthony Albanese is making a concerted play for the Labor leadership, declaring the party’s policy direction needs to change but signalling he would promote progressive values, as the count continues after Saturday night’s election. …He signalled it would be back to


Beijing angry at Labor loss

Good news, via The Australian: The election result will not improve Australia’s relations with Beijing, says editor-in-chief of ­nationalist tabloid The Global Times, Hu Xijin, as analysts speculate that China is trying to pressure a new Morrison government to shift its position on issues such as Huawei. Since Australia banned Chinese company Huawei from supplying


Bravo Quexit!

Leith and I are relieved. Despite MB having effectively written large swathes of Labor reform policy over the past decade, after the last few months neither of us could endorse the party. That was a warning to ourselves that we ignored in favour of polling, foolishly, given that art form is now completely in the dog house.



Via the ABC: Scott Morrison has earnt a permanent place as a Liberal Party legend — returning the Government in what was meant to be an unwinnable election for the Coalition. Mr Morrison smashed the doctrine that disunity will lead to electoral death. Despite three prime ministers in two terms of government, the Queensland swing


Election ignores voters’ concerns around mass immigration

By Leith van Onselen Many of us were hoping in vain that a Shorten-led Labor Government would follow the will of the electorate and lower Australia’s immigration intake back to sensible historical levels: Sadly, the opposite is true. In February, Labor’s shadow immigration minister, Shayne Neumann, committed to a turbo charged migrant intake: Mr Neumann said


Poll Bludger gives election to Labor

Via William Bowe: Federal opinion poll aggregate and seat prediction model, drawing on polling by Newspoll, Galaxy, Ipsos, YouGov, Essential Research and ReachTEL. State results displayed through the tabs below are breakdowns of federal voting intention, rather than state voting intention.  


Shorten should send JBish to Beijing

Via the AFR’s official muckraker: Is there genuinely no bow too long for our sibling mastheads TheSydney Morning Herald and The Age to draw in their advancement mission for former Liberal deputy Julie Bishop? …Wait, apparently you can! As if six nauseating years of Peter Hartcher’s recurrent JBish hagiographies weren’t enough, the political editor – an indulged dinosaur of obsolete foreign affairs savoir-faire; a


Bob Hawke dies

Via the ABC: Bob Hawke, Australia’s 23rd prime minister and Labor Party legend, has died at the age of 89. Mr Hawke led the country and his party from 1983 to 1991, and his contribution to public life helped shape modern Australia. A great conciliator, Mr Hawke’s achievements as prime minister included modernising the economy


Bouris deploys Spruikbot Telephunken U-47 army

Via Domain: Thousands of robocalls by Yellow Brick Road founder Mark Bouris urging voters to reject Labor at Saturday’s election have fallen foul of election laws amid accusations he told “lies” about Bill Shorten’s negative gearing proposals. …”If Labor wins and they bring in negative gearing changes and the capital gains tax changes, house prices


Essential: Labor to win easily

Via The Guardian: Labor remains ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 campaign, and a majority of voters believe Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday night. The final survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the


Scummo kow tows to tyranny as US fights for liberal democracy

If you want a demonstration of just how pathetic, hypocritical, empty, corrupt and dangerous Australian leadership has become, look no further than this, via Domain: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made a last-minute pitch to Chinese voters, swooping into Sydney’s Chinatown in a bid to shore up support for three candidates whose futures could hinge


US bans Huawei as “five eyes” reel

Via Bloomie: Donald Trump ratcheted up his battle with China for dominance of 5G technology networks, moving to curb Huawei Technologies Co.’s access to the U.S. market and American suppliers. The president signed an order Wednesday that’s expected to restrict Huawei and fellow Chinese telecommunications company ZTE Corp. from selling their equipment in the U.S. Shortly afterward, the Department


Roy Morgan: Fake Greens dominated by Champagne Socialists

By Leith van Onselen From Roy Morgan Research comes an interesting profile of the Australian Greens: Greens supporters are concentrated in the highest socio-economic quintiles with 31% of Greens supporters in the highest socio economic AB quintile in 2018, unchanged from 2010, and 24% of Greens supporters in the C quintile, also unchanged. This means