Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar Analysis, News and Forecasts

The Australian dollar, Aussie dollar (AUD) is one the world’s great commodity currencies. Founded in 1966 and floated in 1983 the Aussie “battler” is the 5th most traded currency in the world despite the economy being only the 12th largest by GDP.

The Australian dollar spent much of its first two decades post-float consistently devaluing from the pre-float value of $1.48 US dollars in 1974 to a low of 47 cent in 2001.

Subsequently it broke this huge downtrend with the rise of the Chinese economy and it’s insatiable demand for raw materials – especially those inputs into steel production, iron ore and coking coal – which Australian was endowed with in abundance. It topped this enormous turnaround in 2011 at $1.11 versus the US dollar.

As the super cycle entered decline so too did the Aussie, falling to a low of 68 cents in 2016 and still falling.

However, the Australian dollar  had became popular as a small reserve currency holding with foreign central banks. As the value of the currency virtually halved during the bust they kept buying. Because global central banks were fighting both low inflation and oversupply worldwide, many engaged in an overt currency war, deliberately devaluing their currencies to capture or protect global market share of production. This was exacerbated by private sector flows pursuing the “chase for yield”.

This proved a challenge to Australian macroeconomic managers as the commodity bust persisted. Without the lower value, the Australian economy was unable to compete in non-resource sectors. The Reserve Bank of Australia embarked on a series of interest rate cuts, jawboning and, eventually macropudential policy, to bring the Australian dollar to fair value.

There are five drivers to the currency. Australia’s relative position vis-a-vis Chinese and its own growth; interest rate differentials, the strength or otherwise of the US dollar; the terms of trade and sentiment. Each of these tips into any fair value model but over time the primary driver is the terms of trade. The relative strength of each waxes and wanes with wider trends. For instance, during the “tech bubble” of the late nineties the Australian dollar was battered lower by poor sentiment as it was seen as a pre-tech dinosaur. After the “tech bust”, the currency rapidly recovered as sentiment turned favourable for real assets like commodities.

MacroBusiness covers all apposite data and wider analysis of these issues daily.

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The USD re-asserted itself overnight as stock markets stumbled surrounding the continued lack of good news emanating from US/China trade talks, with Wall Street putting in minor losses. Oil rallied although this didn’t help commodity currencies as the Canadian Loonie dropped on domestic comments, dragging the Aussie and other proxies with it.

14

Australian dollar on the verge of collapse?

DXY was up last night as EUR faded: The Australian dollar was universally dumped: Gold was soft: Oil strong: Metals are sick: Miners did better: EM stocks fell: Junk was fine: Bonds sold: But stock also euphoria faded: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US Oct. existing home sales rose +1.9%m/m (vs est. 2.0%m/m) to 5.46mn (est. 5.49mn,

93

Macro Afternoon

Another sea of red across Asian stock markets today following the same wave overnight on Wall Street, despite the Chinese trying to shore up optimism that trade talks won’t stumble and fall into the 2020 calendar year. Moody’s downgrade of the Australian state budgets weighed locally with the Australian dollar struggling to get back above

5

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight markets were rocked again as the possibility of the US/China trade talks extending well into 2020 firmed, as domestic concerns outweighed the bigger picture, stumbling on tariffs again. US stocks are down nearly 1% going into the close while the USD has firmed against most of the majors. Looking at the

82

Macro Afternoon

No surprise that risk markets are wobbling on any sniff of trouble surrounding the US/China trade deal, as Trump throws the word “tariff” in the air again, which sent US stocks lower overnight, leaking into safe havens here in Asia. Chinese stocks have reversed their recent bounceback, with the Shanghai Composite slumping nearly 0.8% lower

20

China to declare trade war on Europe and vice versa

Via CNBC: China is heavily exposed to the U.S. dollar, but now, with the risk of “decoupling,” Beijing is silently diversifying its reserves to reduce its dependence on the world’s largest reserve currency, analysts say. Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. has “increased the risk of a financial decoupling” between the two largest economies, ANZ

2

Australian dollar bounces as global stocks roar

DXY was soft last night as EUR and CNY lifted: The Australian dollar added a bit versus DMs: And EMs: Gold held on: Oil let go: Metals did better: And miners: Plus EM stocks: Junk was soft: Bonds all rallied: Despite stocks charging on: Wrap from Westpac: Event Wrap US Oct. housing starts (1314k, est. 1320k) and permits

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US stocks lost ground as Trump fumbled around comments regarding Chinese tariffs, pushing industrials down while tech stocks had a slight tick upwards, as the USD lost ground against the undollars. Pound Sterling was the exception as the Tories continue to par back in the polls while Bitcoin cracked below the $8000

47

Macro Afternoon

Japanese stocks are weighing on Asian risk taking as selling exhaustion is seeing Chinese markets both on the mainland and in oppressed Hong Kong surge higher. The USD remains under pressure although a lack of buying in Aussie dollar is seeing the local currency fall short of the 68 cent level. Chinese stocks have continued

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A very quiet night for stock markets as weakness in USD sees risk taking a back seat with scratch sessions on both sides of the Atlantic. The USD fell against Yen and Euro in particular, while Bitcoin reached a new monthly low by crossing below $8300. Looking at the action on Asian

19

Kicked out US, China moves to rort everyone else

Check out this terrible piece of analayis from CNBC: China is heavily exposed to the U.S. dollar, but now, with the risk of “decoupling,” Beijing is silently diversifying its reserves to reduce its dependence on the world’s largest reserve currency, analysts say. Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. has “increased the risk of a financial

55

Macro Afternoon

Outside local stock markets, the rest of Asia is bullish coming out of the Friday night play on overseas markets, where risk taking remains strong as Wall Street reaches a new record high – again. The USD remains weak against most of the majors although gold is struggling to find buyers while the Aussie dollar

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw another new record high for US markets, all based on the expectation that the US/China trade talks will still present a positive outcome for both. USD fell against most of the majors while the risk proxy USDJPY pair jumped, so combined this should result in a very good start

1

Australian dollar the Dodo of global euphoria

DXY fell Friday night: The Australian dollar lifted: EMs were roughly stable: The diminshed AUD short position lasted one week, alas Gold fell: Oil climbed on a big drop in the US rig count: Metals sagged: Miners jumped: EM stocks too: Junk was firm: All bonds fell though Australia much less: Stocks soared towards heaven:

67

Macro Afternoon

Outside China, stocks are quite boisterous here in Asia leading to good buy signals for the northern hemisphere as we close the trading week out. The USD is coming back against Yen, while risk proxies Kiwi and Aussie bounced a little higher today but are lacking any signs of real momentum. Chinese stocks are still

4

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight risk markets are in retracement mode as the USD also falls against all the majors except the commodity proxies as Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie remain subdued. European stocks fell as bond yields dropped everywhere except in Italy, while oil prices are not moving as the latest inventory report surprises with a

80

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are generally down across Asia with only local issues rising due to the fall in the Aussie dollar as the latest unemployment print undershot, sending interest rate expectations down with it. The risk off mood hasn’t been helped by a slip in Chinese industrial production numbers alongside retail sales. Chinese stocks are diverging in

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  An unexpectedly lower UK CPI print and continued focus on Hong Kong, combined with all eyes on the Trump impeachment inquiry is seeing risk markets on both sides of the Atlantic wobble as USD becomes mixed against the majors. Gold is making a weak comeback while oil prices are trying to build

65

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are falling across the region as tariff concerns over the Chinese trade deal mount alongside increased tensions in Hong Kong. The RBNZ lift its interest rate unchanged which saw the Kiwi leap higher while the Aussie dollar continues its slow deflation as the USD firms against the majors. Chinese stocks are really on the

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Swings and roundabouts as the risk meter returns to the positive polarity overnight, with European and US stocks lifting in response to a delay in proposed US tariffs on European autos. The USD is mixed against the majors, with Pound Sterling lifting alongside the Swiss Franc while Euro is falling as the

71

Macro Afternoon

The mixed session from overnight markets has seen an equally mixed result here across Asia as tensions in Hong Kong remain high, while tech stocks and a softer Yen are lifting risk appetites only in Japan. The USD continues to firm against most of the majors, in particular Kiwi as traders await tomorrow mornings RBNZ