China Economy

There are hints of the trade shock landing on China but they are so far minor.

Commerzebank with the note. Manufacturing PMIs showed initial damage The official manufacturing PMI fell to contraction territory at 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, the lowest since December 2023 (Chart 1).

Time for more yawnzooka as Chinese property falls into a tariff hole.

Albert Edwards of Societe Generale famously coined the phrase “Ice Age” for the period leading up to and after the GFC.

Beijing, we have a problem.

Morgan Stanley with the note.

On the one hand, you’ve got a booming business marking up your products into the US economy by ludicrous multiples of your low cost slave labour workforce.

Chinese PMIs are meh.

The Chinese depression rolls on. Here’s the data wrap from Goldman. January-February activity data generally came in stronger than market expectations, although the magnitude of beat was modest. Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.9% yoy in January-February from 6.2% yoy in December, faring much better than export growth which fell meaningfully in January-February.

Chinese credit for February failed to launch with Total social financing up another measly 0.2% to 8.2% yoy.

I posted two charts on Thursday showing the monumental task of transitioning Australia off fossil fuels.

Via Goldman, the headline numbers and deficit breakdown.

Credit Agricole lists the top ten priorities of the new yawnulus package.

I do love a Michale Hartnett sweeping generalisation but this one got my goat. The Price is Right: China house prices on rise, up in 24 of 70 big cities in Jan (Chart 5); if China retail sales accelerate>6%YoY =global investors go long China (not just BATX 2 stocks).

Chinese house prices are bouncing along the bottom.

You’ve just got to love China.

You probably can centrally plan sex, but China sure doesn’t know how to do it.

China is out of deflation!

Emperor Xi and his CCP cronies have discovered a new and exciting way of pretending that the Chinese economy is rebalancing to consumption: vouchers.

The Chinese property slowdown is back, led by lower-tier cities.

Much of the Western World is rapidly deindustrialising to meet ‘net zero’ emissions targets.

In the last couple of weeks, the recovery in China’s primary property market has slowed.