China Economy

At the recent World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual meeting at Tianjin, China, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged that China will become a “consumption powerhouse” capable of fuelling domestic and global growth.

Judging by the PMIs, the notion that China is growing at 5% is preposterous.

Three weeks ago, the Chinese government and the Trump administration came to a very rough agreement on trade, tariffs, and the supply of vital materials each side respectively controlled.

It’s the bust that keeps on giving.

ANZ has a good idea.

May Chinese credit was soft.

Chinese deflation marches on.

Chinese property is still stuffed.

Property market softened in April: The latest batch of property market data show some weakening in both price and activity.

Some more on sinking Chinese property today, a subject that just keeps on giving.

There is no end in sight for the Chinese property bust as prices keep falling.

You can’t keep a good Titanic up, and there’s no better example than Chinese property, which continues to sink despite Beijing’s next efforts.

There are hints of the trade shock landing on China but they are so far minor.

Commerzebank with the note. Manufacturing PMIs showed initial damage The official manufacturing PMI fell to contraction territory at 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, the lowest since December 2023 (Chart 1).

Time for more yawnzooka as Chinese property falls into a tariff hole.

Albert Edwards of Societe Generale famously coined the phrase “Ice Age” for the period leading up to and after the GFC.

Beijing, we have a problem.

Morgan Stanley with the note.

On the one hand, you’ve got a booming business marking up your products into the US economy by ludicrous multiples of your low cost slave labour workforce.

Chinese PMIs are meh.

The Chinese depression rolls on. Here’s the data wrap from Goldman. January-February activity data generally came in stronger than market expectations, although the magnitude of beat was modest. Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.9% yoy in January-February from 6.2% yoy in December, faring much better than export growth which fell meaningfully in January-February.

Chinese credit for February failed to launch with Total social financing up another measly 0.2% to 8.2% yoy.

I posted two charts on Thursday showing the monumental task of transitioning Australia off fossil fuels.

Via Goldman, the headline numbers and deficit breakdown.