China Economy


Some alternative measures of Chinese growth

A chart fest for you. On growth, not so good: But less is more: On credit, not good for future growth either: Credit risk is on the march: Industry cares: But local governments don’t: And neither do foreign investors: No help from the external sector: The consumer is weak: Industry too, but better than the


Chinese house prices fade away

The fade continues for Chinese data. This time new home prices which eased to 0.53% on the month and 8.4% on the year: All city tiers are slowing though lower remains stronger: Breadth of price gains is falling away at a good pace now, down to 44 cities with rising prices and 26 with flat


CCP building a fourth aircraft carrier

Via The National Interest: The People’s Liberation Army Navy—more commonly known outside of China as the Chinese Navy—is modernizing at a breakneck pace. Chinese shipbuilders have built more than one hundred warships in the past decade, a build rate outstripping the mighty U.S. Navy. Most importantly, China now has two aircraft carriers—Liaoning and a second


Trade war empties China’s office towers

Via SCMP: A building frenzy in southern China’s answer to Silicon Valley has driven the vacancy in Grade A offices to a record high, putting the squeeze on part-time developers whose blind inexperience have led them into the industry. A record 1.79 million square metres (19.27 million sq ft) of vacancy, equivalent to 10 of


Chinese credit remains soft

Not disastrous but still soft for sure. Chinese new yuan loans were out for September with bank loans at 1.68tr yuan and total social financing at 2.27tr yuan: The shadow banking share continues to slowly bleed lower: Three month moving average loan growth fell sharply to 10%: The rolling annual stalled: M2 lifted a little


China’s golden week property shocker

Via SCMP: Property sales in China’s major cities saw one of their worst “golden week” holidays in years, as buyers held back amid a slowing economy and tight restrictions on mortgage loans. Sales of new homes in Beijing dropped to their lowest level since 2014 during the week following the National Day holiday, according to


Caixin China services PMI sags

The Caixin China services is actually the one that matters given it includes construction: The Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) highlighted a stronger rise in overall business activity across China at the end of the third quarter. The Composite Output Index picked up from 51.6 in August to 51.9


Angry China intimidates across Australia

Via SCMP: China’s ambassador to France has derided President Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic team for endorsing a “hypocritical” statement on Hong Kong issued by the European Union. Lu Shaye, who is known for his hardline remarks while he was ambassador to Canada, expressed “deep contempt” for Brussels, saying it was “glorifying” the use of violence by


Run for your life. RBA says China household debt “contained”

From the new RBA FSA: The growth and level of corporate debt in China has received significant attention, but household debt has also grown rapidly, albeit from a much lower base. The rise in household debt over the past decade is notable because it can negatively affect both financial stability and economic growth.[1] This Box assesses


CCP doubles Hong Kong troops for birthday

Courtesy of Sinocism: Hong Kong braces for ‘violent attack’ on sensitive Chinese anniversary: police – Reuters There will be a “very serious violent attack,” the chief superintendent of the police’s public relations branch, Tse Chun-chung, told a news conference on Monday. “We are on the verge of extreme danger.”.. Authorities are eager to avoid scenes


The Chinese capital flows that Trump should target

Not outgoing US flows, incoming Chinese flows. Previously via Michael Pettis: On July 31, 2019, U.S. Senators Tammy Baldwin and Josh Hawley submitted a bill “to establish a national goal and mechanism to achieve a trade-balancing exchange rate for the United States dollar, to impose a market access charge on certain purchases of United States assets, and


Chinese PMIs fade away

The China PMIs are out and that economy is going nowhere. First, manufacturing: In September , the manufacturing PMI was 49.8% , up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month . Although it is still below the glory line, the overall economy has improved from last month. The main features of the manufacturing PMI this


The path to Australian fascism

Via The Guardian: The Australian political blogger and novelist, Yang Hengjun, is currently being shackled in chains and interrogated inside a Beijing detention centre, and is being told by authorities he could face the death penalty for espionage. Detained in China since January, Yang continues to protest his innocence to authorities and says he can


China: No stimulus for you!

Via Bloomie: China isn’t in a rush to add massive monetary stimulus, in contrast with other central banks around the world, and must maintain a prudent policy stance, central bank Governor Yi Gang said. Overall financial risks are contained and those in the shadow banking sector and some key institutions have been resolved, said Yi,


China runs out of railways to build

This is the problem, via SCMP: China’s spending on railways, a key driver for growth in the last decade, tumbled in August – in part because all major towns are now covered by the country’s extensive railway network. China’s economic planning agency said on Wednesday that railway fixed-asset investment was 449.6 billion yuan (US$63 billion)


Chinese house prices keep slowing

A double edged sword this. Chinese new house prices are out and continue to slow, up 0.58% in August and 8.3% year on year: Much of the slowing was in the breadth of cities with 20 flat or falling: Top tier cities remain subdued while lower tiers are cooling: Here’s the raw data: This will


China is going ex-growth

China is going ex-growth. The August monthly data dump is unequivocal. Industrial production slumped to the lowest year dot at 4.4%, fixed asset investment is slowing too at 5.5% and retail is tracking both down at 7.5%: The trends are rock solid down. Under the bonnet the news is also bad for the growth mix.


Hong Kong simmers on

Via Hong Kong Free Press: Police have fired tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon containing dye and tear spray at pro-democracy protesters, as Hong Kong entered its fifteenth week of demonstrations. The march, originally organised by the Civil Human Rights Front, was cancelled after the police objected to the event. But on Sunday, thousands