China Economy

Chinese realtors are feeling less sick.

Chinese PMIs are out. The headlines will be about lifting manufacturing, but overall this is a weak report. In November , the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index ( PMI ) was 50.3% , up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of manufacturing expansion accelerated slightly.

Chinese property still unaffordable.

CBA’s economics team has assessed the potential impacts of a second Trump presidency and new tariffs on Chinese goods.

Nothing special about this property easing.

Chinese October data showed a little improvement in retail sales as FAI and industrial production ease.

Xi Jinping is lost.

It wasn’t really a good time and sure wasn’t a long time, as Chinese property appears to be slowing once more. Goldman has more. Our refined easing impact tracker indicates that over the 6th week since this easing cycle, we find: 1)aggregated primary/secondary volumes recorded-29%/+1% wow and were 42%/65% higher than pre-easing level (vs.

Chinese credit is still buggered.

The Chinese CPI is going nowhere but down.

With 60-100% Trump tariffs incoming, China is completely stuffed.

So far, sales of new property have not been better than prior stimulus bursts: Sell-side sentiment is not better, either.

Chinese consumers know what market don’t.

The speed of the Chinese property correction is something to behold: The latest data shows some impact from stimmies mostly in top-tier cities: Year to date is back on track for the worst case!

China is growing at 5% and all of that.

TSLombard with the note.

It was exciting for the day. Goldman: The PBOC delivered 25bp cuts to both the 1-year and 5-year LPR today (Oct 21st) from 3.35%/3.85% to 3.1%/3.6%.

China’s Friday growth data was OK with Q3 GDP edging down to 4.6% yoy in Q3 from +4.7.

Why is China having so much trouble fixing its housing market?

The Chinese Housing Ministry is busy giving the latest yawnulus briefing today and it is not going well.

It’s not looking so good for property sales now: There’s a little progress on destocking: Completions are still sagging: Demand has lifted a little. Supply is still stuffed: Long way down to fair value (more like 80% than 16% but let that go).

It’s more of the same for Chinese credit.

It is not at all clear to me that Xi Jinping dislikes deflation.