China Economy

There is zero indication of a turn in Chiense property: Zero prospect of funding for developers: Evergrande is still paving the road to hell: Two years after its default marked a key moment in China’s property crisis, the world’s most indebted developer may be heading for another bleak milestone: liquidation.

From China’s NBS just now. In November , the manufacturing purchasing managers index ( PMI ) was 49.4% , down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry dropped slightly.

Honestly, Bloomberg is useless on this.

House prices to hell: Housing sales to hell: Deficit holding but it’s not infrastructure growth: Steel market caput: Rebar to hell: Iron ore and steel prices to heaven!

The difficulty with long-cycle busts is that they blow up the mean-reverting economist’s toolkit.

There is no Chinese recovery; meet Godot if you are waiting for it.  Credit for October was OK but not enough. Goldman has more. New CNY loans (flow, reported): RMB 738bn in October (RMB loans to the real economy: RMB 484bn) vs.

Chinese President Xi Jinping raised China’s desire to join the 12 member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) during talks with Anthony Albanese on Monday.

Goldman Sachs with the note: Bottom line: Export value moderated sequentially in October with year-over-year growth below the consensus forecast.

Goldman with the note: 1.

Those looking to China to rescue anything will be disappointed for a long time.

Everybody except Albo the Groveller, that is.

Albert Edwards of Societe General on Chinese groeth.

Will China turn to war as fiscal stimulus to occupy idle hands?

Chinese property is not recovering.

Chinese investors are not the for turning: The net share of respondents planning to cut their investment in domestic real estate over the next year rose to a record 31.7% in the third quarter of this year, according to the quarterly investor sentiment survey published by the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing.

Goldman with a tidy note on the end of Chinese growth.

Markets are cock-a-whoop!

The PBoC cut another 25pbs off RRR overnight but it is still not enough.

Bloomberg has turned into a China property hysteric: A spurt of home sales in China’s biggest cities is losing momentum less than two weeks after authorities loosened mortgage restrictions, raising doubts over whether the steps are enough to revive the market before a crucial busy season.

Goldman with the latest Chinese credit data RMB loan and TSF data came in above expectations after the very weak credit growth in July.

JPM with a neat, potted history of the LGFV problem.

The FT has a terrific piece today.

Country Garden is in default: Distressed Chinese builder Country Garden Holdings Co.