Below find a full review of this week’s China data. Apologies for the lateness. Had some “issues”. First out was August credit which has had its ears pinned back with TSF at an impressive 3.58tr yuan. Banks made up a lousy 1.2tr of that: Meaning that shadow finance is roaring ahead again, though this now
One of the biggest positives to come out of the COVID-19 pandemic is that its has forced the federal government to grow some cajones and stand up to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) bullying. The latest salvo comes from Australia’s top diplomat, DFAT Secretary Frances Adamson, who in a detailed interview in the Weekend Australian vowed
Via Sinocism: DOD Releases 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Release This report accounts for the PRC’s national strategy and the drivers of China’s security behavior and military strategy, covers key developments in China’s military modernization and reform, and provides new insights
The one-trick pony stumbles on. The latest Chian manufacturing PMI managed weak growth: In August , the Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.0% , a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month , indicating that the overall manufacturing industry was operating smoothly. New orders grinding higher. New export orders still falling which is pretty remarkable. But
Loads of China data last week during my illness. Let’s catch up. New yuan loans (TSF) were pretty lousy at 1.69tr: Shadow banking share remains off the leash again: The impulse is starting to fade as 3MMA rolls: Rolling annual is still booming: M2 not so much at 11.1%: Broad credit eked out another gain
Via China’s NBS comes the manufacturing PMI: In July , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 51.1% , an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , and was above the threshold for five consecutive months. Export orders bottoming. Services PMI: In July , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2% , a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , and continued to remain above the threshold.
For sale. One wolf warrior liver: Meanwhile, our charming Nazi CCP mates are at it again. It’s all our fault you see, via Global Times: After the Morrison government is reported to be launching investigations of Chinese flagship platforms TikTok, WeChat and Sina Weibo, following the US that is considering a ban on the short
Via Ray Dalio: The Big Cycle of the United States and the Dollar, Part 1 This is Part 1 of a two-part chapter on the US Empire and its path along the archetypical big cycle of dominant powers. It covers the period up through World War II. In Part 2, we will cover from the
Chinese data for June is out and is exactly as expected. Quarterly GDP snapped back 9.6% to deliver 3.2% GDP on the year: Internals for the June month continued the recent pattern. Industrial production is rebounding fast at 4.8% year on year and -1.3% YTD. Fixed asset investment is down -3.1% YTD and retail is
Alarming video footage has leaked of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) police threatening Chinese Australians that speak out against the authoritarian Xi Jinping regime: The #CCP will hunt you down wherever you go: Witness this video of a Chinese police officer threatening @Horror_Zoo, who lives in Australia, over her tweets about Xi Jinping. CCP insinuates it
The more things change the more they remain the same, via Bloomie: Faced with the prospect of restricted access to U.S. dollars, China’s answer is to get more people to use its own currency instead. The increasing spillover of Sino-American tensions into the financial sphere has ignited a fresh push by China to promote the
China likes to pretend that it’s not unleashing credit stimulus but it is. New yuan loans for June are out and evidence is unequivocal. Total social financing was at 3.43tr yuan with banks accounting for 1.81tr of that: Shadow banks are back in a big way: The surge in new loans is obvious year on
Via UBS, Brazil’s loss is our gain: Initial data from Marine Traffic shows Australia’s Big 4 (BHP, RIO, FMG and Roy Hill) shipped 82.2Mt in June 2020, +12% m/m (annualised) and up 10% y/y. This represents a run rate of ~1,001Mtpa, the highest run rate since Dec-19 (925Mtpa). JQ 20 shipments were ~228Mt, up 5%
They’re positive but given they’re directional not positional they indicate a still-weak recovery. Manufacturing is barely expanding: From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 52.1% and 50.2% , up 0.5 and 1.4 percentage points from the previous month ; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.9% , down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month . From the perspective of the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the
…financial markets such as the one described in this article, or last week’s two bank runs. This has been happening with increasing frequency in China during the past 2-3 years. We saw similar in the US in the late 1920s, Latin America in the late 1970s, Japan in the late… — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) June
Just like the old housing bubble, via Bloomie: China’s property market is shaking off the coronavirus effects as a gradual economic rebound and the further relaxing of centuries-old permits boost demand beyond the major hubs of Beijing and Shanghai. …The fragility of China’s economic recovery from the outbreak and sky-high home prices haven’t shaken investors’ long-standing belief that
Given it is likely mostly lies, the most remarkable feature of the Chinese recovery is that it still looks like crap. Headline growth indicators are weak with industrial production up a lousy 4.4% year on year and still down -2.8% YTD. It’s even worse elsewhere with retail sales down -2.8% YOY and -13.5YTD. Fixed asset
It’s a measure of how poor its wider recovery is. May house prices could only manage another 0.5% and slid to 4.9% year over year amid the credit deluge: The breadth of gains narrowed a bit: Lower tiers are leading again: Raw data: Not even housing speculation is dynamic in China any more.
Again. New yuan loans for May were out last night and it’s game on for Chinese credit. Total social financing remains very strong at 3.19tr yuan of which only 1.48tr was banks: Shadow finance is back although that growth is being exaggerated by tearaway bond issuance: M2 has jumped to 11.1% The 3MMA for new
Some bloke at the ANU wants us to deepen ties with China, at the AFR: High trade shares with China are not a liability but evidence of success. Government policy should not aim to diversify away from success but to ensure international governance to manage it. The key is to manage the risks from economic
Chinese inflation for May, wall-to-wall at the producer level: 2020 Nian 5 months, the decline in the country’s industrial producer prices up 3.7% , a decline of 0.4% ; industrial producer purchase prices fell year on year by 5.0% , a decline of 1.2% . 1 – 5 monthly average, industrial producer prices fell year on year by 1.7% , industrial producer purchase prices fell 2.2% Improved month on month at least but
Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Executive summary. In this article, we explore some key concepts for understanding the unique plumbing of the Chinese monetary system, as well as some of our preferred tools for asset allocation. Our “deep dive” is motivated in part by recent policy announcements by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) against the backdrop of the
Via Markit: Better but it’s still shite. Remember that these are directional indexes so things getting better is pretty meaningless if the base is disastrous, which it is. I’d like see these indexes well north of 60 if we were going to see any kind of v-shaped recovery worthy of the name.
A new report has now unveiled how China withheld data on COVID-19 pandemic, leaving officers of the World Health Organisation (WHO) “helpless and frustrated”: At the height of the coronavirus outbreak, Chinese officials kept vital information from the World Health Organisation which could have slowed the spread and saved lives. Recordings obtained by the Associated
Via China’s NBS: In May , China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 50.6% , a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month . In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises is 51.6% , an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month ; the PMI of
China’s National People’s Congress has approved a draft resolution that paves the way for anti-sedition laws to be enacted in Hong Kong. The laws will end Hong Kong’s autonomy by banning “acts and activities” considered to be a threat to China’s national security, and will permit “national security agencies” to operate in Hong Kong. The
Via Captial Economics: Growth for empty apartments and that’s all.
China recovery inches up, via Capital Economics: Empty apartments are back!
Via Bloomie: Hong Kong is bracing for what could be its biggest day of protests in months, with pro-democracy groups calling for a general strike against China’s latest moves to increase control of the city. Protests are planned for Wednesday near the Legislative Council building in central Hong Kong, where lawmakers plan to hold a
Via Captial Economics: The virus is spreading again as the economy slowly recovers. Welcome to the new normal.
