A chart fest for you. On growth, not so good: But less is more: On credit, not good for future growth either: Credit risk is on the march: Industry cares: But local governments don’t: And neither do foreign investors: No help from the external sector: The consumer is weak: Industry too, but better than the
The fade continues for Chinese data. This time new home prices which eased to 0.53% on the month and 8.4% on the year: All city tiers are slowing though lower remains stronger: Breadth of price gains is falling away at a good pace now, down to 44 cities with rising prices and 26 with flat
As reported last week, via SCMP: A building frenzy in southern China’s answer to Silicon Valley has driven the vacancy in Grade A offices to a record high, putting the squeeze on part-time developers whose blind inexperience have led them into the industry. A record 1.79 million square metres (19.27 million sq ft) of vacancy, equivalent
Via The National Interest: The People’s Liberation Army Navy—more commonly known outside of China as the Chinese Navy—is modernizing at a breakneck pace. Chinese shipbuilders have built more than one hundred warships in the past decade, a build rate outstripping the mighty U.S. Navy. Most importantly, China now has two aircraft carriers—Liaoning and a second
Regular readers will know that the notion of a coming slowdown in Chinese real estate investment has been one reason why MB is more bearish on Australia than most. We’ve been expecting a slowdown in investment and floor space under construction for a year yet it is has not materialised. Indeed, housing investment have been
September QTR Chinese growth hit its lowest level since whenevs today at 6%: Internals all surprised to the upside, which is no surprise at all, given the need to not lose face in the trade war. Industrial production roared back at 5.8%, fixed asset investment held at 5.4% and retail sales pumped up at 7.8%.
This is probably the most frightening one hour of viewing I have seen since the end of Cold War. Kyle Bass with Gen. Robert Spalding: Pass it on.
Via SCMP: A building frenzy in southern China’s answer to Silicon Valley has driven the vacancy in Grade A offices to a record high, putting the squeeze on part-time developers whose blind inexperience have led them into the industry. A record 1.79 million square metres (19.27 million sq ft) of vacancy, equivalent to 10 of
Not disastrous but still soft for sure. Chinese new yuan loans were out for September with bank loans at 1.68tr yuan and total social financing at 2.27tr yuan: The shadow banking share continues to slowly bleed lower: Three month moving average loan growth fell sharply to 10%: The rolling annual stalled: M2 lifted a little
Stagnant rather than falling. The CPI is warm at 3%: But it is all food especially pork: For the more important PPI it is pure stagnation with no price pressures for eight months: But no falling off a cliff either as the ferrous complex comes off its mountain but does not yet fall into a
Via SCMP: Property sales in China’s major cities saw one of their worst “golden week” holidays in years, as buyers held back amid a slowing economy and tight restrictions on mortgage loans. Sales of new homes in Beijing dropped to their lowest level since 2014 during the week following the National Day holiday, according to
The Caixin China services is actually the one that matters given it includes construction: The Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) highlighted a stronger rise in overall business activity across China at the end of the third quarter. The Composite Output Index picked up from 51.6 in August to 51.9
With the US trade war already booting global supply chains from China, the Hong Kong civil war about to turn that process nuclear, and the exhaustion of the Chinese development model all coming to head, it’s time we take a step back from the daily news flow to explore what this looks like in historical
Via SCMP: China’s ambassador to France has derided President Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic team for endorsing a “hypocritical” statement on Hong Kong issued by the European Union. Lu Shaye, who is known for his hardline remarks while he was ambassador to Canada, expressed “deep contempt” for Brussels, saying it was “glorifying” the use of violence by
At the New York Times: China — or, rather, the Chinese regime — is in trouble. Tuesday’s gigantic parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic looked like something out of the late Brezhnev era: endless military pomp and grey old men. Hong Kong is in its fourth straight month of
Via James Anderlini at the FT: The conclusion Beijing has drawn from the past four months of rage is the only one possible in an authoritarian — increasingly totalitarian — system: they were far too soft last time around. When the moment is right, they must act ruthlessly to punish Hong Kong. Just as in
From SCMP: Tens of thousands of Hong Kong protesters defied a new mask ban for a third straight day as a radical core went on a wrecking spree across the city, vandalising mainland China-linked property, setting fires and targeting police with noticeably bigger petrol bombs and engaging in bloody fist fights. The masked mobs smashed
From the new RBA FSA: The growth and level of corporate debt in China has received significant attention, but household debt has also grown rapidly, albeit from a much lower base. The rise in household debt over the past decade is notable because it can negatively affect both financial stability and economic growth.[1] This Box assesses
Superb video here from Kyle Bass on the vulnerabilities of the Chinese economy: A must watch. Now I understand why the Trump Administration is mulling bans for capital flows to China…
Courtesy of Sinocism: Hong Kong braces for ‘violent attack’ on sensitive Chinese anniversary: police – Reuters There will be a “very serious violent attack,” the chief superintendent of the police’s public relations branch, Tse Chun-chung, told a news conference on Monday. “We are on the verge of extreme danger.”.. Authorities are eager to avoid scenes
Not outgoing US flows, incoming Chinese flows. Previously via Michael Pettis: On July 31, 2019, U.S. Senators Tammy Baldwin and Josh Hawley submitted a bill “to establish a national goal and mechanism to achieve a trade-balancing exchange rate for the United States dollar, to impose a market access charge on certain purchases of United States assets, and
The China PMIs are out and that economy is going nowhere. First, manufacturing: In September , the manufacturing PMI was 49.8% , up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month . Although it is still below the glory line, the overall economy has improved from last month. The main features of the manufacturing PMI this
Via The Guardian: The Australian political blogger and novelist, Yang Hengjun, is currently being shackled in chains and interrogated inside a Beijing detention centre, and is being told by authorities he could face the death penalty for espionage. Detained in China since January, Yang continues to protest his innocence to authorities and says he can
Via Bloomie: China isn’t in a rush to add massive monetary stimulus, in contrast with other central banks around the world, and must maintain a prudent policy stance, central bank Governor Yi Gang said. Overall financial risks are contained and those in the shadow banking sector and some key institutions have been resolved, said Yi,
This is the problem, via SCMP: China’s spending on railways, a key driver for growth in the last decade, tumbled in August – in part because all major towns are now covered by the country’s extensive railway network. China’s economic planning agency said on Wednesday that railway fixed-asset investment was 449.6 billion yuan (US$63 billion)
God save me from Juwai, via AFR: Property portal Juwai’s new survey of Chinese consumers found that 27 per cent of mainland Chinese tourists planned to look at properties over the next year as part of their travels, and that Australia was their No.1 destination to go shopping. Brisbane came in third and the Gold
A few more charts for ya, from the WSJ’s Daily Shot. China’s credit impulse ain’t going anywhere fast: The PBOC has been slow to react: And growth is fading: It’s going to have cut the cash rate soon.
A double edged sword this. Chinese new house prices are out and continue to slow, up 0.58% in August and 8.3% year on year: Much of the slowing was in the breadth of cities with 20 flat or falling: Top tier cities remain subdued while lower tiers are cooling: Here’s the raw data: This will
China is going ex-growth. The August monthly data dump is unequivocal. Industrial production slumped to the lowest year dot at 4.4%, fixed asset investment is slowing too at 5.5% and retail is tracking both down at 7.5%: The trends are rock solid down. Under the bonnet the news is also bad for the growth mix.
Via Hong Kong Free Press: Police have fired tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon containing dye and tear spray at pro-democracy protesters, as Hong Kong entered its fifteenth week of demonstrations. The march, originally organised by the Civil Human Rights Front, was cancelled after the police objected to the event. But on Sunday, thousands
