China Economy


Evergrande losers take company executives hostage

Via Straits Times: Footage of Evergrande’s management being held hostage in company offices by anxious retail investors made the rounds on China’s social media earlier this week. “I have with me Nanchang’s top Evergrande representative surnamed Chen,” said WeChat user Yang Qiwen, referring to the city in Jiangxi province in south-eastern China. The posting included


Evergrande breaks Chinese property

Evergrande. Remember the name. Australian historians will. Yesterday it broke the Chinese property sector as its bonds were suspended: In order to ensure fair information disclosure and protect the interests of investors, after the company’s application, all existing corporate bonds of Evergrande Real Estate will be suspended for one trading day from the opening of the


Evergrande defaults

Evergrande defaults: Chinese authorities have told major lenders to China Evergrande Group not to expect interest payments due next week on bank loans, according to people familiar with the matter, taking the cash-strapped developer a step closer to one of the nation’s biggest debt restructurings. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development told banks in


Chinese old economy crash lands

Down she goes and where it stops nobody knows. Chinese August data is out. It is OK at the headline level but downright disastrous at the commodities level. Headline data all missed expectations. Year to date fixed asset investment was OK at 8.9%, industrial production good at 13.1% and retail sales at 19%. But when


Chinese house prices stall

Chinese new home prices are out and are stalling, up just 0.2% in August and 4.2% over the year: The majority of cities now have flat or falling prices: All tiers are slowing: Here’s the city-by-city: If the property developer bust sinks prices then all bets are off in China.


Worldcom. Enron. Lehman. Evergrande.

Evergrande is going bust and nobody knows what that means. Here is its HK regulatory filing that reads like an obituary: Beijing has also retained bankruptcy specialists. The unhappy investors who were happy to take huge yields but not the risk that comes with it stormed Evergrande head office: “Evergrande return our money!” —


Evergrande hard landing turns fireball crash

There is nothing that incenses the Chinese population more than money lost on realty. Evergrande is on the receiving end of that anger: China Evergrande Group is facing mounting protests by homebuyers, retail investors and even its own employees, raising the stakes for authorities in Beijing as they try to prevent the property giant’s debt


Chinese property developers dive towards hard landing

Chinese credit is slowing and the property development segment is diving into a hard landing. The signals are everywhere. Goldman has more: Evergrande developments the main driver for near term risks. With Evergrande bonds pricing in elevated risks of default, investors are questioning how “fat” the tail risk is for China property bonds. More specifically,


Chinese credit goes down down

Chinese credit for August was out Friday night the news is poor. TSF came in at 2.9tr yuan: This is 17.3% lower than last August and the 3MMA is still down 15.9% to boot: Year to date new credit is still hovering around -16% and has been for six months: The rolling annual mountain is


Iron ore hits new low as Evergrande gets extend and pretend

The soft bailout of Evergrande has begun: Regulators in Beijing have signed off on a China Evergrande Group proposal to renegotiate payment deadlines with banks and other creditors, paving the way for a temporary reprieve as the cash-strapped developer struggles to come to grips with more than $300 billion of liabilities. China’s Financial Stability and


China accuses Australia of ‘bullying’

A Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has accused Australia of “bullying” and using China’s economic coercion for “selfish political gain”: Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin said… “China has never done anything detrimental to Australia’s sovereignty”… “The label of so-called ‘economic coercion’ can never be pinned onto China. Instead, it is Australia that stands guilty of


Evergrande’s death march

I could write this one up but ZeroHedge has done a good job of it. The takeout is materially lower Chinese property starts ahead… With algos busy chasing upward momentum in futures and global stocks, the biggest – if largely ignored story – remain the ongoing collapse of “China’s Lehman“, the $300+ billion China Evergrande,


What is Common Prosperity?

TS Lombard has a crack at it: The mantra of “Common prosperity for all”, proclaimed by Xi Jinping in more than 60speeches this year, is an ideologically appropriate slogan for a Communist Party after decades of lop-sided growth and rising inequality. The promise of greater fairness, re-balancing between labour and capital, increased social provision is


Chinese hard landing proceeds apace

A seriously behind the curve Goldman Sachs is still trying to defend its capital-devouring long commodity call. Having completely missed the severity of the China slowdown, and associated commodity crash, it now says a rebound is imminent: We have to add to the mix a combination of weather related disruptions, rising regulatory risk andthe material


Evergrande contagion sweeps Chinese developers

It’s on like Donkey Kong for Chinese developers. Evergrande is going out of business and other weak players are being sucked in: A worsening selloff in China Evergrande Group’s dollar bonds is once again spreading to other developers, raising the stakes for Chinese authorities as they mull whether to support billionaire Hui Ka Yan’s embattled


Evergrande hurtles into the abyss

It’s fun to watch. China’s Evergrande, the most indebted developer in the known universe, is hurtling into the abyss. Its deleveraging efforts have all been for nought: On the face of it, China Evergrande Group made progress cutting its debt load in the first half of the year. On closer examination, paying its dues got


No respite in building China bust

Or should that be no respite in the bust in Chinese building? Evergrande is going out of business: China Evergrande Group warned that it risks defaulting on borrowings if its all-out effort to raise cash falls short, rattling bond investors in the world’s most indebted developer. “The group has risks of defaults on borrowings and


China intensifies property sector crush

I am starting to admire this. The rebooted Chinese determination to force structural reform onto its economy is precisely the same as that needed in the “capitalist west”. It’s all about ending property capital misallocation and restoring productivity growth as the prime income driver. And it is NOT over. First up, the grand political narrative


China’s “Volker moment” to destroy iron ore

Why is China suddenly seeking to share prosperity? This chart has something to do with it: If you want to rebalance your economy from investment-led crony capitalism and an increasingly risky export dependency to consumption then you’re going to need strong households, not the above. The way to do it is to shift more of


Evergrande doom loop accelerates

Readers will know that China’s Evergrande group has become a central part of the story of the current economic slowdown in China. Evergrande has been reeling all year as it struggles to meet the terms of China’s Three Red Lines policy aimed at deleveraging property developers to end, once and for all, the misallocation of


China says ‘it won’t panic stimulate’ this time

As we know, there have been three large scale reform and stimulus periods in China since 2011: 2012 reform to lower investment and higher consumption. 2013/14 higher investment and lower consumption. 2015 reform to lower investment and higher consumption. 2016/17 higher investment and lower consumption. 2018/19 reform to lower investment and higher consumption. 2020 higher investment


Will China crash into financial crisis?

As China slows with a receding credit tide, its titanic armies of naked swimming businesses are exposed. So far, the headlines have been hogged by Huarong and Evergrande but there are many other defaults and the potential victims in opaque Chinese debt daisy chains are limitless. This is one reason why I do not expect


Chinese infrastructure to the rescue of iron ore. Not

I keep saying it. Chinese infrastructure investment has a problem. Authorities have been trying half-heartedly since May to get local governments borrowing but they just won’t: The slow pace of borrowing by local governments in China and curbs on the property market mean the economy will receive less of a boost this year from infrastructure


Lombard: No MOAR in China

TS Lombard with the note: There were no signals of easing from the quarterly economic work meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo at the end of July.The statement issued after the meeting reaffirmed that monetary policy would remain “prudent” but ensure ample liquidity to financial markets, while fiscal policy would accelerate already budgeted spending and


China glides towards hard landing

Global markets are still only half spooked by the swift decline in Chinese growth. As usual, it is the hope of MOAR that keeping things afloat. Goldman is typical: 1. Industrial production increased by 6.4% yoy in July, significantly less than expected. The weakness appears relatively broad-based. Activity growth in machinery manufacturing sector slowed on the


Chinese growth crushes iron ore hopes

China has released its July data dump and it’s a doozy. Industrial production came in at 6.4% versus 7.4% consensus and 14.4% YTD. Fixed asset investment is sliding away at 10.4% YTD. Retail sales were up 8.5% versus 11.5% expected and 20.7% YTD: Looking at the data over two years is a better way to


For once, Michael Pettis is wrong

A terrific interview with Michael Pettis from Bloomie: I disagree with nothing that Professor Pettis describes except the timing. I do not think that China is going to rebound in H2 on property and infrastructure investment. On the contrary. Yes, the great Chinese macro-management oil-tanker has begun a long swing towards more stimulus with mumbling