Dalian just went sick: Big Iron is following: The trigger appears to be a speech by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in which described the momentum of world economic recovery as “insufficient“: Anti-globalisation voices emerging World political risks on the rise Momentum of world economic recovery insufficient economic growth needs to ensure fairness, sustainability limiting trade
Iron ore price, steel price and futures published daily
The contemporary seaborne iron ore price first emerged in 2003 when the Chinese development model shifted up a gear. Indian suppliers broke free of an annual contract pricing system that had been dominated by Australia, Brazil and Japan for decades.
As Chinese demand surged, traditional supply and pricing mechanisms could not keep pace. Indian miners in Goa and Karnataka had surplus supply and filled China’s marginal new needs outside the old benchmarking system.
But it still wasn’t enough and other non-traditional suppliers began to emerge in South America and Africa. These needed more dynamic pricing mechanisms and by 2008 Platts, Metal Bulletin and The Steel Index were publishing a daily iron ore price.
As the Chinese demand surge continued, by 2007, major Australian iron ore miners were charging enormous premiums to prices from five years earlier. The annual benchmarking system began to strain to the point breaking, including significant diplomatic tensions between Australia and China. This culminated in a proposed merger of BHP and RIO Tinto which triggered panic in Beijing as it feared an already supply-constrained market and soaring iron ore price would by made worse by monopoly pricing. The Chinese SOE, Chinalco, moved the buy a blocking stake in RIO Tinto.
However, the GFC intervened and deflated tensions as Chinese demand collapsed. But Chinese steel mills found themselves still tied to very high prices and an annual iron ore price benchmark that did not reflect the new reality. Many defaulted on cargoes and walked away from deals.
To fight the downturn, China unleashed an enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus that soon had China building more than ever. The demand for iron ore rocketed to all new highs. With the memory of contract defaults fresh in their minds, major Australian miners, led by BHP and CEO Marius Kloppers, abandoned the annual benchmarks, forcing Chinese steel mills to adopt a short term iron ore price using spot and quarterly contracts. Brazil joined in in 2010.
The spot iron ore price soared to all new highs and triggered a global wave of new supply from producers such as Fortescue Metals Group, Ferrexpo, Kumba Iron Ore, Anglo American and Sino Iron.
With the rise of the short term iron ore price market, iron ore derivative markets grew. First in the Singapore on the SGX and later in China as the Dalian Commodities Exchange and the United States at Chicago Commodities Exchange (CME). Iron ore derivatives could hedge and future price iron ore output.
These last developments coincided with the peak in the China boom and prices began to fall from 2012. After peaking above $190 per tonne, the iron ore price collapsed into the $30s in 2015 as new supply outstripped demand.
Ahead were still many years of oversupply, a lower iron ore price, consolidation and mine closures.
Also Check – Australian Dollar
Find below our daily feed of market analysis
First, Market Matters (whoever they are): According to Market Matters analysts it’s not a crazy idea. Miners traditionally outperform during the upcoming period and after considerable pressure there could be a buying opportunity in some mining names. “Locally the market continues to underperform with stocks down by 1 per cent last week versus the US
Iron ore price charts for June 23, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 50 cents to $55.50. Paper faded. Steel has not updated. CISA steel output launched early June 5.4% to 1.86mt, indicating still good demand. In news, Roy Hill is struggling: Roy Hill is expecting to complete about 16 million tonnes of iron ore shipments in
Dalian continues its recent pattern of firming at night and sagging during the day today: Big Iron is mixed: Big Gas is still stinky: Big Gold is up: Big Bubble is reeling: And Big Liar is as mendacious as usual as REA breaks out: As Australia goes ex-growth so does it’s share market. Avagoodweekend.
Macquarie has released its monthly Chinese steel mill survey and it paints a picture of a sector in rude health: Opinions on the outlook for the steel and iron ore markets appear to have diverged in line with recent price performance. Steel mills and steel traders are more optimistic in our latest survey than
Iron ore charts for June 22, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 1% to $56. Paper fell late and overnight. Steel has not updated. From Reuters: Iron ore exports from India were down 53 per cent in the past two months as China, a major consumer, took better quality ore from Australia to feed its integrated steel
Iron ore price charts for June 21, 2017: Tianjin benchmark added $1 to $55.40. Paper took off overnight. Coking coal too. Steel is stuck. The bear market rally that has been trying and failing for two weeks finally gained a little traction. My guess is the trigger is the new liquidity management being undertaken by
Dalian has opened flat: Big Iron has broken with FMG right at new intraday lows, BHP crashed through them, and even coconut vendor RIO under pressure: Big Gas is now burning out of control with STO pointing straight towards new 40 year lows: Big Gold is chopping wood in its correction: Big Bubble is bursting
The great commodity bear market rally is over, apparently, via Macquarie: After the regular liquidity pushes of 2016, the Chinese government has now shifted to a tightening bias, propagating a destock cycle through the manufacturing chain. Chinese construction activity has been extremely strong, but we also expect sequential weakness in this area. To be clear,
Iron ore price charts for June 20, 2017: Tianjin spot fell 30 cents to $54.40. Paper was hit overnight. If that was supposed to be a bear market rally then the market is in deep trouble. Steel stable. World steel output growth is fading fast: World crude steel production for the 67 countries reporting to
Dalian is wandering aimlessly today: Big Iron is mostly up: Big Gas is burning: Big Gold is correcting: Big Bubble has had its run seemingly: Big Liar is soldiering on: And a bonus chart today, hope your enjoying Australian exceptionalism: If not, try the MB Fund launching July 1st with a 70% international equities allocation. Sign
File this one away under “driving through the rear vision mirror”: Iron Ore: The Bear is Coming — 2017 iron ore price downgraded from US$70/t to US$61/t, 2H17 price reduced from US$62/t to US$49.50/t, and 2018 by US$3/t to US$50/t. After IF shutdowns drove increased blast furnace utilization and iron ore to >US$90/t in
Via Macquarie: All change for the met coal market After initial reports a few weeks ago, further details are coming to light about the shift of the hard coking coal contract to an index-based system. IHS has reported that Nippon Steel agreed to use spot index price average over March to May for calendar
Iron ore price charts for June 15, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose a sterling 20 cents to $53.70. Paper climbed overnight. Steel did yesterday. Who cares. From Reuters: Chinese rebar steel futures climbed 3 percent to a two-week high on Thursday after authorities said the world’s top producer has achieved 85 percent of its capacity
Deutsche has a crack at it today: Iron ore supply has responded to the more favourable pricing environment Iron ore supply has responded across all quarters after a weak first quarter from the major seaborne producers. First quarter production reports confirm that severe weather at the start of the year took its toll on the