It appears China has gifted us the super virus, via CNBC: The coronavirus survived for up to 17 days aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, living far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The study examined the Japanese and U.S. government efforts
Via Guy Rundle at Crikey: The Centrelink lines are going round the block, the government has made vague announcements of rent assistance, twitter buzzes with notes from the newly laid-off wondering how they’ll put food on the table and pay the rent and the mortgage. Here’s a suggestion. Do the former by omitting the latter.
Shane Oliver of AMP Capital has forecast that the coronavirus pandemic and measures to contain it will see Australia’s unemployment rate surge from 5.1% currently to around 10%. He adds that this could result in capital city house prices falling by about 5% at best and 20% or more in a worst-case scenario: Auction clearance
The war on the virus that is. General SloMo invokes the most sacred Australian spirit: We gather today at a time of great challenge for our nation, and indeed the world. We are a strong nation and a strong people, but in the months ahead this will put us all to the test like at
With 2.3 million temporary visa holders residing in Australia, and many unable to work or travel home, the federal government will offer special welfare payments and visa extensions: The Australian understands that welfare assistance may be available to temporary visa holders if they face significant financial hardship under the Special Benefit payment and the coronavirus
Via the excellent Damian Boey at Credit Suisse: As leaked earlier today in the press, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 0.25%, the effective lower bound. It provided forward guidance to the effect that it will not raise the cash rate until it sees progress on jobs, and inflation back within the
Hmmm… CBA has cut home loan rates by 70 basis points to an all time low of 2.29 per cent for 1, 2 and 3 year fixed home loan customers. Alongside that, the bank said it was launching a new term deposit rate of 1.7pc, an increase of 60bps. That looks like cover for zero
From the RBA just now: The coronavirus is first and foremost a public health issue, but it is also having a very major impact on the economy and the financial system. As the virus has spread, countries have restricted the movement of people across borders and have implemented social distancing measures, including restricting movements within
Headed to zero today it seems: Very nearly 54s with low at 55.11. But just wait a minute…
Bloomie has released some interesting data on the virus’ pathology: More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority. …The new study could provide insight into why Italy’s death rate, at about 8% of total infected people, is higher
Thank god for “medical advice”. Via The Australian: Scott Morrison personally intervened to prevent almost 600 Catholic schools across NSW from closing in an early morning call to Sydney Archbishop Anthony Fisher seeking a guarantee the sector would pull back and keep school gates open. A letter obtained by The Australian from the chief executive
DXY is an untouchable rocket ship. Judging by past episodes of US dollar shortage this has weeks to run: The Australian dollar is now in outright free fall versus DMs: Though it had a better day versus EMs: Gold is still liquidating: Oil is literally going to zero: Base metals are next: Miners are now
Today Phil Lowe faces the most important moment of his career, the gravest moment in his central bank’s history and, to put it bluntly, the most far-reaching moment for the contemporary financial system, as well as the liberal capitalism that it represents, that any Australian central banker will ever face. I am not kidding. Today
You’ve got to love equities. They are the true village idiot of markets. Convulsing one way or the other until they are finally right by random walk! Meanwhile, credit has no choice but to reflect underlying reality. And what it is saying is not encouraging at all. US junk apreads are on a tear with
Somebody is surely blowing up. Is it LTCM? Aussie sovereign yields are ripping higher across the curve though especially at the long end: Although XJO has also come back, the outlook suggets this move is nonsense. It is a sovereign bond market dislocation. The AFR says hedge funds repatriating to the US. But that is
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has just held a press conference relaying the outcomes of today’s COAG meeting with state premiers, which announced that public gatherings of more than 500 people would be banned from Monday. Prime Minister Morrison stated that the government’s goal is to slow the transmission of the virus throughout the community in
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Overnight, the Fed announced it will be increasing its repo size to $1 trillion per week, while the ECB announced more liquidity management and asset purchase measures (refraining from cutting rates into more negative territory). Yet despite all of this massaging, bond yields rose into the close,
With cases of coronavirus multiplying across Australia, the NSW Chief Medical Officer has warned that 1.5 million people are at risk of contracting the virus in the state and have called on hospitals to ramp-up capacity: Speaking at a Budget Estimates Committee, Dr Chant said that could result in about 20 per cent of the
It is getting pretty damn impressive now. XJO has a 4-handle: The sleeping RBA is still hitting bonds: The Aussie dollar is off its worst: Big Iron isn’t the worst: Treasonous Big Gas is getting its commeupence: Big Gold alas. Maybe nibble into this bust: Big Banks whoa! Big Realty thinks it’s immune. Lol: Blood
Via FTAlphaville: In the first of what we imagine will be many targeted fiscal policies to alleviate the economic stress from the Coronavirus panic, news from quarantined Italy this Tuesday morning. Via the FT’s Miles Johnson: Italy’s deputy finance minister has said the government will suspend mortgage payments and other household bills across the entire country
Australia’s property industry is playing down the threat of a coronavirus pandemic on Australia’s housing market, claiming it may only slow price growth: An economic recession would not automatically drag the housing market into another downturn and a property bubble remains highly unlikely, property experts claim… Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Consibee said a recession would
Today’s new mortgage data for January from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recorded another month of strong growth: Total new mortgage commitments (excluding refinancings) surged by 4.6% in January, with owner-occupied mortgages rising 5.0% and investor mortgages rising 3.6%. Year-on-year, total new mortgage commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by 23.3%, with owner-occupier mortgages rising by
Via the ABC: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says it is only a matter of time before schools close across the state and large sporting and cultural events are cancelled to combat the spread of coronavirus. While the Premier said the State Government had no immediate plans to cancel football matches or the Grand Prix, he
A glimpse inside northen Italy hospitals: Jason Van Schoor @jasonvanschoor Registrar in Anaesthesia & ICM | NIHR UCL Academic Clinical Fellow From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some
Don’t get me wrong. China is not off the hook for COVID-19. It only started thanks to the contradictions of totalitarian CCP rule. Yet it is impossible to miss the diametric opposite responses of East and West to the pandemic. China shut down completely to choke the virus. It appears to be on the verge
The Australian Adam Creighton has tweeted suggesting that freezing compulsory superannuation contributions would provide the economy with the “best possible stimulus”: The best possible stimulus would be suspension of mandatory superannuation contributions, supercharging take-home pay by around 10 per cent and avoiding the waste that accompanies government spending.#auspol — Adam Creighton (@Adam_Creighton) March 9, 2020
Via ANZ: Consumer confidence fell 4.2% last week. This was the third consecutive fall, for a cumulative decline of more than 8%, taking the index to a low last seen in May 2014. ‘Current economic conditions’ fell 8%, adding to the massive 16.6% decline in the previous reading. ‘Future economic conditions’ bucked the trend with
History has just run down and crushed ScoMo, at the AFR: “We now have one goal in 2020 – to protect the health, wellbeing and livelihoods of Australians through this global crisis, and to ensure that when the recovery comes, and it will, we are well positioned to bounce back strongly on the other side.”
DXY is in free air and crashing as EUR, the new haven of the world (!?!?), tears the roof off: The Australian dollar ripped higher following yesterday’s fat finger: It is caning EMs: And all other commodity currencies: Oil will halve yet: Gold has not pushed through: Base metals broke: Miners flushed: With EM stocks:
Lucerne Investment Partners note: This is a truly frightening pandemic with significant ramifications which much of the developed world is unlikely to cope with well. The reality is ICUs [intensive care units] are likely to be overrun around the world and people will increasingly seek to avoid social contact and hide at home in order
