CBA is the great AUD bull: While we see further near-term downside in AUD/USD, and believe AUD/USD could decline and test the technical support around 0.7473, we are not yet getting bearish AUD. and we don’t believe it is headed significantly lower for five main reasons: Australia’s terms of trade is 54% higher today than
By Leith van Onselen I have previously claimed that Australia’s private health insurance system is facing forces similar to the electricity “death spiral”, which arises when demand for power declines, due in part to customers taking up solar, leading to higher prices to cover fixed network costs. That is, the more people that take-up solar
From Jeff Kennett: AUSTRALIA is now in the appalling position of being a nation without adequate leadership. The citizenship issue is not yet a Constitutional crisis but it is a crisis — yet our leaders seem incapable of dealing with it quickly. What, if anything, can we take from our federal Parliament’s past 15 years?
From Jess Irvine: Florists, photographers and wedding celebrants are among the army of small businesses set to enjoy a billion-dollar plus boost when tens of thousands of same sex couples are finally allowed to walk down the aisle. According to ANZ senior economist Cherelle Murphy, the economic benefits of marriage equality related to weddings alone
By Leith van Onselen RBA Assistant Governor, Luci Ellis, game a speech last night where she played down concerns over where Australia’s future growth would come from: As the mining investment boom turned down, and became a drag on growth, the question was often asked: ‘Where is the growth going to come from?’ Commentators started
By Leith van Onselen This site has frequently railed against the unfair treatment leveled at Australia’s Millennial generation. This inequity is most apparent in the housing market, where today’s younger generations are being forced to pay far more than their parents to live in smaller and poorly located accommodation. But it extends beyond housing and
By Leith van Onselen 15,364 scientists from 180 countries have put their names to a BioScience journal article calling for population growth to be limited, and governments to stop only focusing on economic growth. According to the ABC article attached to the report, “the number is believed to be the largest group of scientists to
By Leith van Onselen Credit Suisse has released its 2017 Global Wealth Report, which reveals that Australian households are the second wealthiest in the world when measured by median wealth: Household wealth in Australia grew at a fast pace between 2000 and 2012 in US dollar terms, except for a short interruption in 2008. The
Via The Australian: Same-sex marriage will be legalised in Australia after 61.6 per cent of voters ticked Yes in the postal survey. About 79.5 per cent of registered voters participated in the historic survey with a clear majority in favour of giving gay couples to right to marry. The parliament will now debate how the
Via AFR: Former ANZ chief executive Mike Smith says the big four banks could have handled recent political attacks better, saying whenever governments want “mob interest” they always turn on the banks. “It’s being used as political capital … when you want to get mob interest, you turn on the banks. Hitler did it,” Mr
Freelancer CEO Matt Barrie and Craig Tindale have gone nuclear on a coming Australian meltdown today at LinkedIn. The entire article is reproduced below if you have a spare two days. I recently watched the federal treasurer, Scott Morrison, proudly proclaim that Australia was in “surprisingly good shape”. Indeed, Australia has just snatched the world
By Leith van Onselen The latest population figures for NSW showed that the state received a whopping 93,481 net overseas migrants in the year to March 2017, but lost nearly 14,000 residents interstate: According to analysis by economist Callam Pickering and others, many of the workers leaving Sydney are high skilled, meaning the city is
Via Domainfax: Who wants to be a millionaire? Forget the game show and the song titles – the average Australian household now has more than a million dollars in net wealth. The trouble is we are becoming increasingly cash poor. While the value of our homes has risen to the point where the average household can
By Leith van Onselen Dr Bob Birrell from Australian Population Research Institute has argued that foreign students are locking younger Australians out of the jobs market. From the Herald-Sun: TENS of thousands of foreign students are prolonging their stay in Australia by switching visas to become tourists, partners of local residents and even asylum seekers.
By Leith van Onselen The Age has released a somewhat disturbing report on the large number of homes being left vacant across inner-Melbourne: The Melbourne areas with the most number of unoccupied properties have been revealed, as the Andrews government sets to reap in tens of millions of dollars from its new vacant property tax.
By Leith van Onselen With HELP bad debts currently standing at around $50 billion, the federal Education Department will work with the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) on matching tertiary courses with income and employment outcomes. The stated intent is for this information to help assist prospective students with course choices. However, Andrew Norton of the
The Nothing Singularity consuming Do-nothing Malcolm grows every day now. Via Nothingfax: Turnbull government MP John Alexander has resigned from Parliament after British authorities were unable to uncover any evidence to support repeated assurances he was not a dual citizen. Mr Alexander’s resignation – five days after Fairfax Media revealed he was likely a dual
That’s the question the AFR asked on the weekend, sensibly enough, given it is a near certainty: The newest of Shorten’s policies is a 30 per cent minimum tax rate on distributions to the adult beneficiaries of discretionary or family trusts. With farms exempt, the change will affect 2 per cent of taxpayers and 318,000
Oh dear: Australian publisher Allen & Unwin has ditched a book on Chinese Communist Party influence in Australian politics and academia, citing fear of legal action from the Chinese government or its proxies. The publisher’s chief executive, Robert Gorman, said last week that it would abandon publication of a completed manuscript by Clive Hamilton, a
Via Domainfax: McGrath agent Gareth Richards was surprised his listing, the three-bedroom Federation residence in Neutral Bay, one of Sydney’s most popular suburbs on the lower north shore, passed at $1.75 million in September. He expected six keen buyers to turn up, but only two did, with one saying she had to bail because her own home she was selling that morning passed
Via Domainfax: “Spoilt” vendors have been forced to eat humble pie in the inner city Sydney suburbs of Redfern and Darlinghurst as asking prices continue to fall. Asking and sold prices have come down by up to 18 per cent in the two suburbs in the last two months to match cautious and reticent buyers,
By Leith van Onselen Today’s housing finance data for September, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted large falls in lending to owner-occupiers as well as investors. According to the ABS, the total number of owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) fell by 2.9% in September in seasonally adjusted terms but was up 11.8%
By Martin North, cross-posted from the Digital Finance Analytics Blog: The latest edition of the Digital Finance Analytics Household Financial Security Confidence Index to end October shows households are feeling less secure about their finances than in September. The overall index fell from 97.5 to 96.9, and remains below the 100 neutral setting. We use
Via ANZ: The most recent RBA data on private sector credit showed that in the year to September housing credit was up 6.6% year-on-year. The annual growth rate has been steady since May, though it has accelerated marginally since this time last year and is still significantly outpacing income growth. We very much doubt that