Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an epidemiologist working in chronic disease in Sydney’s west, has penned an article warning against complacency surrounding COVID-19. Meyerowitz-Katz claims there is a widely-held misconception that since only about 1% of people diagnosed with COVID-19 will die, the other 99% of the world’s population does not have to worry too much about the
Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA, has released research showing that the impact of international travel restrictions on the Australian economy are not as bad as commonly feared: Key Points: Both tourism exports and imports have collapsed due to international border closures, but education exports remain buoyant. The overall impact of border closures
Melbourne’s CBD is in crisis as COVID-19 and the shift to working from home (WFH) has collapsed visitor numbers by an estimated 95%. This has left office buildings empty and gutted surrounding businesses reliant on the people flow. With business leaders and the Melbourne City Council concerned that WFH could become permanent, they have devised
The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) released some alarming data late last week on mortgage deferrals. According to APRA, $192 billion of mortgages have been deferred by authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs), comprising 11% of all housing loans: Worse, more than one-third of investor mortgages have been deferred, a large proportion of which are interest-only: As
I was once a great fan of Gareth Evans but not anymore: This would be sensible if it didn’t so comprehensively misrepresent recent history. Australian rhetoric around China has not been hysterical. When Malcolm Turnbull declared Australia would “stand up” against CCP violations of sovereignty he did so because it was necessary. China was busy
Last week the International Gas Union issued its annual report on global gas prices. This is the industry benchmark report that the Australian gas cartel uses to argue in the Australian parliament that Aussie gas prices are reasonable. Here’s the 2019 results: Australia comes in at 18th around $8Gj. This makes domestic Aussie gas the
The strong rebound in Australian property values has come to a shuddering halt with the Coronavirus lockdown. Auction clearance rates and buyer sentiment have collapsed, unemployment is surging, and mortgage availability is tightening. All of which points to declines in Australian dwelling values. Yet these headwinds pale next to the looming headwind of heavy falls
Let’s retire this debate and the endless word-games. A Job Guarantee (JG) is a way to guarantee a certain income level to anyone willing to do tasks that some administrator decides are good. A Universal Basic Income (UBI) is a way to guarantee a certain income level to anyone willing to do any task they decide
Nasty, via the AFR: One in 10 off-the-plan apartment sales have fallen over during the past three months as lower valuations due to weaker demand and oversupply prompted banks to reject final loan approvals, forcing buyers to give up millions of dollars in deposits. Out of around 35,000 off-the-plan settlements between March and June, 3041
Housing Minister Michael Sukkar was interviewed by Sky News yesterday where he signaled that the Morrison Government would indefinitely subsidise first home buyers’ property purchases: “10,000 places [in the FHB deposit subsidy scheme] have been released today. This scheme allows people to purchase their first home with a deposit of as little as 5%. One
Via the ABC: Hong Kong police made hundreds of arrests on Wednesday as protesters took to the streets in defiance of sweeping new security legislation introduced by China to snuff out dissent. Police also fired tear gas and water cannons at protesters during the clashes which came one day after the new legislation was enacted.
As reported on Sky News, a Senate inquiry will today consider extending government support schemes such as JobKeeper beyond its late-September expiry. Business groups will make a case for an extension at the inquiry, with the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Australian Industry Group, Business Council and small business representatives all expected to appear. The
With 95% of Aussies backing trade diversification away from the evil CCP, let’s go back to first principles to reboot manufacturing: I use this video to show my econ students the degree to which active policy helped industrialise Australia. I ask them to list all the policies mentioned and we discuss what the Aus economy
The AFR held its webcast on the property market, where the consensus seemed to be that Australian property prices would fall by around 10%: “There are still risks including a second wave of coronavirus and there’s still going to be a lot of uncertainty,” [EY Oceania chief economist Jo Masters said]. “I think a 10
US virus going nuts: Focussed on American Idiot states, led by Texas: Deaths are turning, sadly: The new wave of infections has been much more youth-centric so the death rate is lower but it’ll hit the oldies next and hospital capacity is in trouble in Texas: A bunch of states will have to lock
Last week we reported that international students would begin to be flown into Australia from July with Canberra and Adelaide to take the first plane loads. Other jurisdictions are expected to follow course over coming months with international students to be quarantined for two weeks, paid for in part by taxpayers. MB has vigorously opposed
“Average hardworking landlords” in Melbourne are apparently being slaughtered by falling rents and rising rental vacancies: Melbourne landlords are struggling under the burden of reduced rent payments and finding tenants during the coronavirus pandemic. Self-funded retirees without access to the pension are notably slipping through the cracks, with many of them reliant on rental income
Supermarket giant Woolworths has announced it will build two new automated grocery distribution centres, resulting in a number of redundancies. While Woolworths did not say precisely how many roles would be affected by the site closures, which will take place over the next five years, it said the redundancies would cost about $176 million
A new survey from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) reveals that most Australians wish to continue working from home (WFH) for at least a few days per week: …instead of commuting every day, they would be happier to be in the office for only two or three days of a five-day working week… For those who
Has Peter Navarro went off-reservation? At Reuters: White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday the trade deal with China is “over,” and he linked the breakdown in part to Washington’s anger over Beijing’s not sounding the alarm earlier about the coronavirus outbreak. “It’s over,” Navarro told Fox News in an interview when asked
This is an important piece not because it says anything we don’t already know but because it is by FMG and Chinese junket queen, Jennifer Hewitt. On last week’s cyber attacks: The decision for the Prime Minister to call this out – even without naming the Chinese government – will be politically self re-enforcing. Canberra
Alan Kohler went all MMT yesterday: The RBA’s bond holdings represent only about 11 per cent of the government debt, well short of what the Fed or the ECB and Bank of Japan are doing, but it’s also true that the RBA has effectively financed all of the JobKeeper program with new money. Is that
Via News: A student activist who led protests against the Chinese Communist Party claims the University of Queensland has directed a top-tier law firm to threaten him with contempt of court. Drew Pavlou said his lawyer Mark Tarrant received a letter from Clayton Utz, representing UQ, which outlined plans to initiate a new contempt of
It’s not. Capital Economics has some handy charts. The US: Europe a bit better: China the best but not good: Asia big trouble: EMs next: At present valuations it still screams “sell stocks”.
More a second ripple, via the ABC: It’s been two weeks since restrictions eased on June 1, so what’s happening to Australia’s COVID-19 curve? Compared to the low coronavirus infection numbers we have become used to seeing in Australia, this week we’ve seen a big jump. New cases have been in the double digits for
New scenarios from Martin North: Given the amount of money being thrown to the construction and property sector and incentives (or bribes as they should be called) to prospective purchasers, there is a path to higher home prices, especially away from the high-rise disasters in our main urban centres. We now give this a 20%
Stock markets have dislocated from fundamentals. The economic fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been. Stock market valuations are as expensive as they have ever been. But that hasn’t concerned markets for the past six weeks and, to be frank, it doesn’t look like concerning markets any time soon. We discuss pertinent
Via Scope: Global currencies are widely used in cross-border monetary operations, finance and trade. For the issuing sovereigns, these currencies come with both benefits and costs and can therefore have significant implications for creditworthiness. In this report, we explore the drivers of global currency status and the prospects for change in the international monetary system,
On Monday I argued that the weekend’s “black lives matter” protests would provide a useful experiment on COVID-19. That is, if the protests do not lead to a spike in COVID-19 infections, this would indicate that risks from reopening the Australian economy to all but international travel are low. If so, the protests could actually
I thought he was supposed to be walking a middle path these days, via the AFR: With Parliament back and the two major parties now sparring openly over the coronavirus crisis and the response measures, Labor demanded the JobKeeper wage subsidy of $1500 per fortnight be extended to workers who had “missed out” – including
