I have been pretty sanguine about this to date. But some of the activity by the Chinese military is pretty out there in terms of regular Cold War “buzzing“:
- 20 Chinese aircraft violated Taiwanese airspace over the weekend.
- A Taiwanese source said that it was simulated an attack on US warships.
The US is getting restive:
- The Biden Administration is mulling whether China is “flirting with the idea of seizing control of Taiwan as President Xi Jinping becomes more willing to take risks to boost his legacy.”
- Various generals are warning that the intent is serious.
Taiwan is getting even more restive:
- It is mass-producing long-range missiles. It is believed they have a 1200km range.
- Other missies are under development including up to 2000kms.
- Obviously, this is to act as a deterrent by making Taiwan capable of inflicting damage deep within China in the event of invasion.
I’m still not alarmed but if we take a step back then we can view the entire advent of aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy in the last year as part of a plan to invade Taiwan in-so-far-as it is a softening up process to ensure that everybody lives in fear of CCP reprisal if the invasion does come. To date, I have seen most of this in the broader context of the CCP shifting the base of its power from economics to nationalism as the former sputters out. But there is no need to see them as separate.
That said, I still think the move would be catastrophic for China. The globalisation that has driven its rise would come to a shuddering halt with free populations worldwide rallied to Chinese containment. The boycotts and blockades would be immense and repatriation of Chinese production surge. It would lose access to key commodities, as well as finance for who knows how long.
But, the CCP will do whatever it takes to stay in power so we should remain on nutter alet.