Xi Jinping “flirting” with Taiwan invasion

I have been pretty sanguine about this to date. But some of the activity by the Chinese military is pretty out there in terms of regular Cold War “buzzing“:

  • 20 Chinese aircraft violated Taiwanese airspace over the weekend.
  • A Taiwanese source said that it was simulated an attack on US warships.

The US is getting restive:

  • The Biden Administration is mulling whether China is “flirting with the idea of seizing control of Taiwan as President Xi Jinping becomes more willing to take risks to boost his legacy.”
  • Various generals are warning that the intent is serious.

Taiwan is getting even more restive:

  • It is mass-producing long-range missiles. It is believed they have a 1200km range.
  • Other missies are under development including up to 2000kms.
  • Obviously, this is to act as a deterrent by making Taiwan capable of inflicting damage deep within China in the event of invasion.

I’m still not alarmed but if we take a step back then we can view the entire advent of aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy in the last year as part of a plan to invade Taiwan in-so-far-as it is a softening up process to ensure that everybody lives in fear of CCP reprisal if the invasion does come. To date, I have seen most of this in the broader context of the CCP shifting the base of its power from economics to nationalism as the former sputters out. But there is no need to see them as separate.

That said, I still think the move would be catastrophic for China. The globalisation that has driven its rise would come to a shuddering halt with free populations worldwide rallied to Chinese containment. The boycotts and blockades would be immense and repatriation of Chinese production surge. It would lose access to key commodities, as well as finance for who knows how long.

But, the CCP will do whatever it takes to stay in power so we should remain on nutter alet.

Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. I see the US in this scenario like Val Kilmer as Doc Holliday in Tombstone … Xi is Johnny Ringo about to cop one …

    “oh, I’m your huckleberry …. why Johnny Ringo you look like somebody just walked over your grave”
    “fights not with you Holliday”
    “oh I beg to differ”

    • NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

      Ha – this is a fantastic analogy.

      Fully capable of the fight at hand, but suffering from terminal internal disease at the same time.

    • you wish. The US stood by and watched China build bases in the South China Sea, and did nothing. Why will they do something now?

      The situation was the same as the UK and France appeased Hitler in the 1930’s.

      with free populations worldwide rallied to Chinese containment.

      “free populations’ will do nothing, because doing something will be branded as “r4cist”

  2. Just imagine the economic dislocation that would immediately fall on global trade.

    Computer chips, textiles, electronics, rare earth elements, lithium batteries. All those things would take several years to rewire and would iron ore and LNG exports stop immediately? That would be BIG and would cause a massive market collapse surely?

    • Trade continued in HK, production was not disrupted and there was no war-like situation. Taiwan would be a different kettle of fish!

    • Hex TexasMEMBER

      Obama / Biden also did nothing with russia and the ukraine, so i expect nothing from Biden, he is joke.

  3. I so wish we were on the Commies side, they got all the cool countries supporting them, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, NK

  4. Ronin8317MEMBER

    With propaganda, people spewing the nonsense eventually starts to believe the nonsense they’re spewing. A naval invasion of Taiwan have zero chance of success right now. It’s 20 years too early.

    • Yes. The Chinese Marines who specialise in maritime assaults have a strength of about 36000, or roughly 3 divisions. Not enough troops for the job.

      Of course the PLA has other assets to draw on, but they don’t have the logistical capability to move the required troops, armour and artillery, fuel, food etc to Taiwan against determined opposition. And I suspect the opposition would be beyond fanatical. I know that would be my mindset if they came here

      Blockade, harbour mining etc yes. Physical invasion and occupation, no.

  5. Ailart SuaMEMBER

    I wonder how many of the 24 million Taiwanese people would be opposed to a CCP take-over. The answer might surprise us all. IMO, a military invasion of Taiwan is extremely unlikely. The CCP are definitely not stupid.

    I don’t believe too many of us devote much thought to the enormity of what’s required to govern close to 2 billion citizens. A completely different kettle of fish to governing a mere 350 million – let alone 25 million citizens. A primitive, self-serving, democracy-hijacked, propaganda-driven, Westminster-style system wouldn’t stand a ghost of a chance. BTW, it’s pretty clear that the use-by date for such ‘con-job systems’ expired in the late 1970’s. Maybe it’s time we started focusing on Constitutions and electoral systems – and the changes required to restore democracy and our desperately needed quality, accountable leadership for all.

      • And India’s rate of development v China probably demonstrates this, to some extent

        I always wondered about this, assuming that centralised planning is/was needed for a period, Can you imagine trying to force development at the rates China has, with democratic checks and balances, cost benefit, consultation etc etc.

        • Ailart SuaMEMBER

          “Can you imagine trying to force development at the rates China has, with democratic checks and balances, cost benefit, consultation etc etc.”

          Precisely. Two very different levels of thinking, producing very different results. Maybe something to do with UK influence?

    • I think it would work OK – I think the main issue is that a centrally-planned society and economy requires that kind of force…loosen the grip and more is possible – but the main issue is the grip.

      A system involving strong, independent states as part of a union would probably work fairly well in China – but it makes it hard for a small group of federal politicians to have all the glory in their lifetime 😉

  6. What about the story about Xi saying he was preparing for economic dislocation? Do you think that factors into this at all? I was the same about Taiwan, thinking it probably wouldn’t happen or at least not for a long time. I am starting to change my mind.

  7. It’s interesting that Taiwan has let it be known they’re building intermediate range missiles. Yes Xi, you can attack us, but we can destroy large parts of China in the process. What’s it worth to ya buddy?

    Every Taiwanese sees what’s happened to Hong Kong, I don’t think many want to go down that road.

  8. There were 220 Chinese Maritime militia fishing boats in west Philippine sea in the month of March. Preparing for a more southern base perhaps?