Special Reports


MB Subscriber Report: 1H 2021 Australian Property Outlook

Below is the first in a new monthly routine of special reports that will be provided exclusively to MacroBusiness subscribers. The Australian economy’s better than expected recovery, driven by unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, has delivered the biggest and broadest property price boom for generations. All five major capital city markets have experienced astonishing rebounds


MB Christmas Report: The 2021 Aussie property boom

Australia’s property market began 2020 with strong momentum. Property prices had accelerated in the 10 months following the Coalition’s shock election victory in May 2019. This was led by Sydney and Melbourne whose values were rising at a double-digit annual pace. Then came the global coronavirus pandemic, which stopped the property market and Australian economy


Industry’s superannuation math doesn’t add up

Industry Super Australia (ISA) were doing the rounds again yesterday, claiming the Morrison Government’s early release policy will add billions to the cost of the age pension over coming decades, thereby hammering future taxpayers: “The community knows the government’s dealing with a crisis, but it doesn’t make sense to backflip on the promised super increase


MB Christmas Special Report: The bell tolls for Australia

As 2019 comes to a close, the Australian economy is giving mixed messages. On the one hand, the domestic economy is slowing fast, with the private sector in recession and the economy held up largely by government spending. Household incomes continue to stagnate. In response consumers are closing their wallets with retail sales volumes and


MB Q3 Subscribers’ Report: Is Australia’s housing recovery a bull trap?

In MB’s Half-Year special report, entitled “Can ScoMo’s miracle save housing and the economy?”, we forecast a modest house price recovery for Australia into 2020. Over the past quarter, however, the housing market has strengthened more quickly than we anticipated, with some commentators even declaring “the great Aussie housing boom is back”. This report reassesses Australia’s


MB Half-Year Report: Can ScoMo’s miracle save housing and the economy?

In MB’s 2018 Christmas special report, entitled “The Great Australian Housing Crash”, we anticipated a “strong probability” of a housing “crash” for Sydney and Melbourne, loosely defined as a peak-to-trough decline in values equal to or greater than 20%. However, we noted that this outcome would “hinge on Labor following through with its commitment to


Special report: Brisbane property – good value or value trap?

In our last report on the Brisbane property market, released in March 2015, I argued that investment fundamentals and valuations in Brisbane property were sound relative to the other major capitals, but that the economic outlook was mixed, thus posing some risks to potential investors. With Sydney’s and Melbourne’s housing markets continuing their bull runs


Special Report: Gerard Minack on when debt-stuffed Aussies will puke positions

Exclusively from Gerard Minack. A housing boom prevented the 2014-15 commodity bust pushing Australia into recession.  Now, however, pressure on consumer incomes is increasing the risk that even a moderate downturn in housing could cause a recession in 2018. Australia coped well with the mining boom busting in 2014-15.  Even so, growth has run below


Special report: Where to invest to win the energy race

Fossil fuels have a limited time as viable sources of energy. And I’m not talking about saving the planet or carbon taxes, simply economics. Coal, gas, oil, all have economics based on a “scarcity curve” – the more we use them, the deeper we need to dig to find more and more expensive they become


Special report: Why common housing affordability measures are wrong

By Leith van Onselen In recent times I have witnessed excuses about today’s record high house prices (and record low affordability) that do not pass the laugh test and warrant thorough debunking. The first is the claim that when mortgage rates halve, this means that a buyer can afford to purchase and pay-off a home


Special report: Five reasons the mining bust is not over

The ANZ’s Richard Yetsenga has nailed his colours to the mast, from the ABC: The bank’s acting chief economist and global head of financial markets research Richard Yetsenga told a business function in Perth he believed the commodity bear market days were in their “final stages”. “I don’t think you’ll see new lows for the oil


Minack on whether mining will bust housing

Exclusively for MB paying members from Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors. Australia enjoyed two booms over the past 20 years: the well-known once-in-a-century mining boom, as well as an unprecedented boom in banking, borrowing and buying houses.  The economy is now struggling with the end of the mining boom.  The bear case for Australia is