Special Reports

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Special Report: Gerard Minack on when debt-stuffed Aussies will puke positions

Exclusively from Gerard Minack. A housing boom prevented the 2014-15 commodity bust pushing Australia into recession.  Now, however, pressure on consumer incomes is increasing the risk that even a moderate downturn in housing could cause a recession in 2018. Australia coped well with the mining boom busting in 2014-15.  Even so, growth has run below

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Special report: Where to invest to win the energy race

Fossil fuels have a limited time as viable sources of energy. And I’m not talking about saving the planet or carbon taxes, simply economics. Coal, gas, oil, all have economics based on a “scarcity curve” – the more we use them, the deeper we need to dig to find more and more expensive they become

44

Special report: Why common housing affordability measures are wrong

By Leith van Onselen In recent times I have witnessed excuses about today’s record high house prices (and record low affordability) that do not pass the laugh test and warrant thorough debunking. The first is the claim that when mortgage rates halve, this means that a buyer can afford to purchase and pay-off a home

12

Special report: Five reasons the mining bust is not over

The ANZ’s Richard Yetsenga has nailed his colours to the mast, from the ABC: The bank’s acting chief economist and global head of financial markets research Richard Yetsenga told a business function in Perth he believed the commodity bear market days were in their “final stages”. “I don’t think you’ll see new lows for the oil

114

Minack on whether mining will bust housing

Exclusively for MB paying members from Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors. Australia enjoyed two booms over the past 20 years: the well-known once-in-a-century mining boom, as well as an unprecedented boom in banking, borrowing and buying houses.  The economy is now struggling with the end of the mining boom.  The bear case for Australia is

32

Gerard Minack on why in 2015, Australia runs out of luck

By Gerard Minack, founder of Minack Advisors Australia’s once in a century commodity boom is (unsurprisingly) reversing. There is a serious risk – say, a 40% chance – that Australia has a recession in 2015. Recession would become my base case if leading indicators of employment deteriorate. Under almost any scenario the outlook is for

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Special Report: The Melbourne property bubble

For several years now, I have argued that Melbourne’s housing market is built upon weak fundamentals and is overvalued relative to the other major capitals. And yet, Melbourne house prices have grown strongly in recent times, driven by record demand from property investors. This report revisits the Melbourne housing market and finds that while the

16

MB Members’ Report: Sydney housing loses its safe haven status

For several years now, I have argued that Sydney housing offers relatively good value from an investment perspective. This was based upon the view that Sydney housing was relatively undervalued following an extended period of under-performance over the second half of the 2000s, as well as tighter supply and generally stronger fundamentals than the other

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MB Members Report: Gerard Minack on the great ASX lag

Australian equities are not expensive by global standards.  However, the key investment issue is earnings, not valuation:  profits increased sharply through the resource boom, and remain high in domestic sectors.  If profits normalise, Australian equities will likely under-perform. The valuation of Australian equities is mid-range amongst global markets (although most markets do not appear cheap).