Special Reports


MB Half-Year Report: Can ScoMo’s miracle save housing and the economy?

In MB’s 2018 Christmas special report, entitled “The Great Australian Housing Crash”, we anticipated a “strong probability” of a housing “crash” for Sydney and Melbourne, loosely defined as a peak-to-trough decline in values equal to or greater than 20%. However, we noted that this outcome would “hinge on Labor following through with its commitment to


Special report: Brisbane property – good value or value trap?

In our last report on the Brisbane property market, released in March 2015, I argued that investment fundamentals and valuations in Brisbane property were sound relative to the other major capitals, but that the economic outlook was mixed, thus posing some risks to potential investors. With Sydney’s and Melbourne’s housing markets continuing their bull runs


Special Report: Gerard Minack on when debt-stuffed Aussies will puke positions

Exclusively from Gerard Minack. A housing boom prevented the 2014-15 commodity bust pushing Australia into recession.  Now, however, pressure on consumer incomes is increasing the risk that even a moderate downturn in housing could cause a recession in 2018. Australia coped well with the mining boom busting in 2014-15.  Even so, growth has run below


Special report: Where to invest to win the energy race

Fossil fuels have a limited time as viable sources of energy. And I’m not talking about saving the planet or carbon taxes, simply economics. Coal, gas, oil, all have economics based on a “scarcity curve” – the more we use them, the deeper we need to dig to find more and more expensive they become


Special report: Why common housing affordability measures are wrong

By Leith van Onselen In recent times I have witnessed excuses about today’s record high house prices (and record low affordability) that do not pass the laugh test and warrant thorough debunking. The first is the claim that when mortgage rates halve, this means that a buyer can afford to purchase and pay-off a home


Special report: Five reasons the mining bust is not over

The ANZ’s Richard Yetsenga has nailed his colours to the mast, from the ABC: The bank’s acting chief economist and global head of financial markets research Richard Yetsenga told a business function in Perth he believed the commodity bear market days were in their “final stages”. “I don’t think you’ll see new lows for the oil


Minack on whether mining will bust housing

Exclusively for MB paying members from Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors. Australia enjoyed two booms over the past 20 years: the well-known once-in-a-century mining boom, as well as an unprecedented boom in banking, borrowing and buying houses.  The economy is now struggling with the end of the mining boom.  The bear case for Australia is


Gerard Minack on why in 2015, Australia runs out of luck

By Gerard Minack, founder of Minack Advisors Australia’s once in a century commodity boom is (unsurprisingly) reversing. There is a serious risk – say, a 40% chance – that Australia has a recession in 2015. Recession would become my base case if leading indicators of employment deteriorate. Under almost any scenario the outlook is for


Special Report: The Melbourne property bubble

For several years now, I have argued that Melbourne’s housing market is built upon weak fundamentals and is overvalued relative to the other major capitals. And yet, Melbourne house prices have grown strongly in recent times, driven by record demand from property investors. This report revisits the Melbourne housing market and finds that while the