MB Q3 Subscribers’ Report: Is Australia’s housing recovery a bull trap?

In MB’s Half-Year special report, entitled “Can ScoMo’s miracle save housing and the economy?”, we forecast a modest house price recovery for Australia into 2020.

Over the past quarter, however, the housing market has strengthened more quickly than we anticipated, with some commentators even declaring “the great Aussie housing boom is back”.

This report reassesses Australia’s housing market and finds that while the growth outlook has unambiguously improved over the next 12 months, downside risks have also risen further down the road. This raises the question of whether Australia’s recovery represents a classic “bull trap”?

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