European Economy


European polls head for Heaven and Hell

Slowish action overnight with the US closed but one measure hit new wides. European bond spreads continue to blow out: French yields are now at their widest to German since 2012, the FT explains: The premium for 10-year French debt climbed to a fresh post-eurozone crisis high over equivalent German Bunds on Monday, reflecting investor


French election thrown into chaos

While we’re all fixated on the deglobalisation fireworks of Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson, neither is the most pressing threat. That honour still lies in Europe where French elections are again entering chaos as the conservative candidate, Francois Fillon, implodes, via The Independent: French presidential hopeful and long-time front-runner François Fillon could be eliminated in


German terror makes everything worse

ISIS has laid claim to the German truck attack: Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the Berlin truck attack that killed 12 people, via its news station, as police released a suspect from custody a day after the deadly crash. The attacker was a “soldier of the Islamic State” who acted in response to calls


Was the ECB hawkish or dovish?

Dovish says Westpac: Ahead of the December ECB Governing Council meeting, market participants had been debating if the existing program would be sustained or tapered, or indeed whether we would have to wait until March 2017 to find out what the ECB had in mind. Thankfully, after having failed to do so in the past,


Italian banks in the gun

As Renzi falls so too do Italy’s banks, from the FT: Monte Paschi and advisers JP Morgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a E5bn recapitalisation, according to people informed of the plan, Rachel Sanderson in Milan reports. Senior bankers will


Italy votes “no”, Renzi goes

Early indications in the Italian referendum are poor for Matteo Renzi: Matteo Renzi seems set to lose a referendum on his flagship constitutional reforms, according to exit polls released on Sunday night, a result that could lead to the Italian prime minister’s resignation. Although exit polls have been unreliable in Italy in the past, they


Austria rejects neo-Nazis

Another pollster failure and a good one, from the FT: Austria looked to have voted against a far-right nationalist as head of state in a presidential election race which became a test of political populism in Europe after the election of Donald Trump as US president. Norbert Hofer, the Freedom party candidate, won 46.7 per


Your Italian referendum fallout guide

From Citi: 1. The referendum is not a make-or-break moment for Italian politics. Although important, near-term risks stemming from the referendum outcome may be overstated. A No vote would maintain the (perhaps not ideal, but wellknown) institutional status quo, although it could lead to government resignations. We reckon on balance the reform is positive for


European panic grows as Italexit looms

Matteo Renzi is having none of it, from The Guardian: The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has doubled down on a promise to resign if he loses an upcoming referendum, saying the “decrepit system” that would be left in the wake of his defeat would have to be taken care of by someone else. The


Italexit odds rise

The de-globalisation revolution intensifies today as Italian PM Matteo Renzi confirms he may resign if he loses his referendum, via Reuters: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi suggested on Monday that he may not stay on if a referendum on constitutional reform that he is championing fails. Asked in a radio interview what he would do


De-globalisation revolution hurtles towards Italy, Austria

For anyone with a sense of history, the de-globalisation revolution is moving at astonishing speed. The next global wanker rejection is scheduled for December 4 in Italy and Austria, from the Express: THE EU’s days might be numbered with Italy about to vote on a referendum which could send shockwaves across the continent.Analysts believe the


Why the ECB is going to print, print, PRINT!

From Westpac’s Elliot Clarke A key purpose behind the ECB’s alternative easing programs has been to materially improve credit provision and conditions in the Euro Area economy. Exhibiting a lagged relationship with the business cycle and further hampered by the health of European banks, success on this front has been slow and limited. As referenced


Is Germ-exit next?

by Chris Becker The public image of the European experiment is that it has been setup to bring Europe closer together financially, culturally and strategically, a melting pot of medium-sized States so that one big entity cannot shape or rule the continent’s future. The reality is Germany rules Europe for Germany. The financial gains for


Brexit fallout continues as BOE cuts rates

by Chris Becker Last night, the Bank of England held its monthly meeting and made no surprises with the first rate cut – down 0.25% to 0.25% even – as part of a post Brexit referendum easing program. They also announced an expansion in their bond buying program (70 billion pounds) and in news that


Will Italy tear down Europe?

From the AFR: Platinum, the Sydney-based global value investor, is defying the bearish mood and buying more European bank stocks after its positions in banks accounted for almost half of the fund manager’s losses so far this year. The Platinum Unhedged Fund’s latest report shows that its value fell 10 per cent in 2015-16 compared with


Vive la France

From the BBC: A lorry has struck a crowd after Bastille Day celebrations in the southern French city of Nice, killing at least 80 people and injuring dozens, officials say. It happened on the famous Promenade des Anglais after a firework display. The driver was shot dead and guns and grenades were found inside the