Australian Economy

Via Damien Boey of Credit Suisse today: In our recent article “Crying wolf against the little engine that could”, dated 15 November 2018, we suggested that the pulse of activity growth has faded badly towards the back end of the year.

You can see where the coming Shorten Government is going to go today in Victoria, via the ABC: Victoria’s re-elected Premier Daniel Andrews has unveiled his new front bench, with half of ministry positions going to women.

By Leith van Onselen Sadly, Fairfax’s Ross Gitins has turned into a shill for the ‘growth lobby’, missing the point entirely on why Australians are unhappy despite 27 years of so-called continuous “economic sunshine”.

Yesterday in response to Gerard Minack’s latest I noted that my base case was not for recession in 2019 but steep slowing to 2% GDP growth or below in H2: The principle reason for this is still high public spending, decent net exports and population growth of 1.6%.

By Leith van Onselen Too often, commentators on the population debate understate the role played by immigration in driving Australia’s population growth. These commentators usually claim that net overseas migration (NOM) accounts for around 60% of Australia’s population increase, whereas “natural increase” (births minus deaths) accounts for around 40%.

Weeo, weeo, weeo.

By Leith van Onselen UBS has forecast that Australian retailers’ discretionary sales will grow by just 1.2% year-on-year during the Christmas 2018 period, compared with around 3% in the last three years.

Via BKW: The stock also up with the wider market but, again, I wouldn’t buy it.

Hooocoodanode: The stock is actually up a little at the open on with the wider market but I wouldn’t buy that.

Earlier this morning I gave an interview with 2GB’s Michael McLaren talking about Sydney’s break-neck population growth and the latest attempt by the so-called “Good Growth Alliance” – the cabal of property rent-seekers – seeking to shut down discussion about lowering immigration to more sensible levels.

Via Gerard Minack: There are risks aplenty in Australia, centred on expensive houses, high leverage and low saving.

Via S&P: Australian prime home loan arrears fell in September, according to a recently published report from S&P Global Ratings. The Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages, declined to 1.33% in September from 1.36% in August.

Via Commsec: • Aussie motorists have an early Christmas present.

By Leith van Onselen Last week, the Australian Population Research Institute (APRI) released a startling new report arguing that Australian universities’ heavy reliance on overseas students is crushing education standards, is oversupplying accounting, IT and engineering occupations, adding to population pressures in Sydney and Melbourne, and is shaping Australia’s foreign policy.

Here is what Crikey’s Bernard Keane wrote last week on immigration: The same policy breakdown that has occurred in other areas of neoliberal policymaking is now occurring on immigration.

Westpac shows today that there is still a lot of downside left in the house price correction: Our last Housing Pulse showed buyer sentiment continuing to stabilise but a further weakening in housing markets suggested other factors were driving things – a tightening in lending standards in particular.

Via Scott Haslem at the AFR: The housing outlook warrants significant caution.

By Leith van Onselen RBA Governor, Phil Lowe, must live on another planet to be so out of touch.

Via CBA: Australian private sector output growth recovered some ground in November, with sharper increases in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

By Leith van Onselen Twenty years ago, in 1998, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) forecast that Australia’s population would hit between 23.5 and 26.4 million by the year 2051.