Immigration into Australia continues to smash official forecasts

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures statistics for the month of April, which suggested that immigration into Australia continues to surge.

In the year to April 2019, there were a near record 843,950 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia, up 5% from April 2018, and was only partly offset by 551,670 permanent and long-term departures:

Subtracting departures from arrivals, there were 292,280 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to April 2019, way above the 42-year average of 155,091:

As shown in the next chart, there is a strong correlation between the monthly ABS net long-term arrivals data and the lagging quarterly ABS net overseas migration (NOM) figures:

Therefore, the monthly data suggests that NOM is about to surge.

As we have noted previously, the April federal budget projected that NOM would rise over the four year forward estimates:

However, judging from the monthly arrivals data, NOM could once again smash the official projections.

So, despite the Coalition promising to cut immigration, migrants continue to flood into Australia en masse.

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      • Melbourne; The World’s Most Liveable Second World City.
        Compared to what we have now, the 80’s and 90’s in Melbourne were are golden period.
        I’m old enough to have experienced it.

    • If this isn’t ethnic cleansing I’d love to see what is. Does anyone honestly believe all European stock nations decided to ethnically self-destruct at once? No one was asked, no one consented (in fact dissent was criminalised).

  1. Did we realistically expect anything else? The only thing to meaningfully decrease migration given that the elites are wedded to it is either mass citizen action to reject it (which would be ugly) or a decrease in the pull factor/s of Australia. The only likely possible decrease in pull factor in the near term is mass unemployment, and that will be needed for an extended period of time because you’d still get lots of hopefuls in the short term thinking they’ll be one of the lucky ones to get a job. The only way to stop mass immigration would then be to have a rational national discussion about mass migration during the period when migrant inflows are low but I doubt that will eventuate. I’m afraid we are stuck with mass immigration until we go beyond some hard environmental limits, such as major cities running out of water.

    It’s going to be interesting to see what will happen first, major Aussie city has no water and mass forced migration in Asia due to environmental issues (such as no water) where Australia will be expected to take many of those people. I’m resigned to the fact the country I grew up in is dead and buried. Mass migrationis here to stay, to our detriment, unless we are extremely lucky and I don’t think we will be. Plan and act accordingly.

  2. Short of taking up arms and hitting the establishment dictating policy. I don’t think anything will change policy short of a major calamity such as the Yanks and Chinese fighting each other
    You (or we) lost.
    Don’t like it? then emigrate somewhere else.

  3. The good times are over…now everyone will have to work like they do in the rest of the world…except in the US

  4. There should be a study about Australia’s decline in sporting performance mapped against immigration:
    A, Importing the ‘wrong’ type of players
    B, Mum and Dad have to work harder as vibrant money buys homes from under them
    C, Crush loading, so too long to get to training.
    We’ve gone from gold to fold in a generation.