Australian Economy

Westpac monthly consumer sentiment: • The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 1.9% to 100.7 in April from 98.8 in March.

Via the ABC: Tens of millions of dollars will be offered to the world’s automotive giants to resurrect the Australian car industry, centred around manufacturing electric and hydrogen-powered cars, under a yet-to-be unveiled Labor plan.

The IMF was out with its new World Economic Outlook overnight and the news for Australia is steeper growth downgrades than just about anywhere else: 2.1% for 2019 is miles below the RBA’s and Budget’s 2.75% (though the latter is for 2019/20).

Sure looks like it.

It appears Labor is revving up to cut temporary visa workers, via Craig Emerson at the AFR: Add to the 900,000 temporary work visa holders the number of illegal workers in Australia and the total reaches almost 1 million.

By Leith van Onselen An EY survey has found that just 28% of Australians expect to reduce their debt in 2019, down from 60% in 2018.

Via ANZ weekly consumer confidence: The fall in confidence last week would be seen as disappointing in Canberra given the near-term boost to household incomes delivered in the Budget.

By Leith van Onselen Australia’s migrant slave economy has been exposed again, with farmers labelling “outrageous” a Fair Work Commission (FWC) ruling that fruit pickers should be entitled to overtime if they work excessive hours.

Let’s reprise some vestigial Goldman Sachs analysis from 2016: A sharp turn in Australia’s national income dynamic, which we flagged in early August, now looks likely to move significantly higher following the spikes in coal and iron ore prices in the closing months of 2016.

Via the AFR: Analysis by The Australian Financial Review shows growth in bank loans of between $100,000 and $500,000 has been negative for the last three quarters, with growth in that loan segment down 0.5 per cent in the December quarter – the worst rate of annual growth for seven years.

Good stuff from Michael Pettis at Bloomie (a few weeks old but worth revisiting): What’s less-understood even now is that if China begins a serious deleveraging, reported GDP growth rates will fall by a lot more than expected – by more than the amount of non-productive activity that had formerly been capitalised.

By Leith van Onselen The ACTU has failed workers yet again, proposing a ridiculously low wage floor for temporary skilled workers of only $62,000 a year: A senate inquiry into Australian business’ use of temporary work visas has recommended significant tightening of the scheme.

By Leith van Onselen For years, MB has questioned the efficacy of the Migration Council of Australia, which purports to be an “an independent, non-partisan, not-for-profit body established to enhance the productive benefits of Australia’s migration and humanitarian programs”.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released trade data for the month of February, with Australia’s trade surplus jumping to $4.8 billion from $4.4 billion in January: The result beat expectations of a $3.7 billion surplus.

Via Westpac: Retail sales surprised significantly to the upside in February, a 0.8% gain coming very much against the run of play.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales figures for the month of February, which recorded a 0.8% rise in retail sales over the month in seasonally-adjusted terms, with annual sales growth rising to 3.2%: In trend terms, annual retail sales growth fell to 2.9%.