Via Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business:
The Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (the Indicator) has fallen for the sixteenth consecutive month in September 2019, after nine consecutive monthly rises. The Indicator’s fall this month is attributed to declines in four of its five components—reflecting tighter financial conditions in the USA, soft domestic consumer sentiment and business forward orders, and a weak outlook for prospective economic activity in Australia.
Cyclical employment has fallen for the second month in September 2019, after twelve consecutive monthly rises. The Indicator’s strongly-confirmed peak in May 2018 indicates that the employment growth rate could fall below the long-term trend rate of 2.4 per cent per annum in the near term.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
