Consumer confidence slumped to its lowest level in more than two years at the weekend, according to an ANZ survey that suggests people are preparing for more difficult economic conditions over the next five years.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index fell 3.5 per cent from the previous week, with respondents’ perception of the economy – including the outlook for the next 12 months – dipping 0.6 per cent and sentiment about conditions during the next five years plummeting 7.6 per cent.
The weekly measure of consumer mood, which is based on about 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted on Saturdays and Sundays, also recorded a 4.6 per cent drop in how people felt about their current financial condition compared with a year ago and a 4.8 per cent slide regarding their finances during the next 12 months.
Suggests fiscal and monetary stimulus may not be having the desired effect.
Not looking forward to any oil shock, clearly.
CBA says it’s all about to turn, with a fluffy new index:
Following some initial positive signs last month, the September 2019 edition of the Household Spending Intentions (HSI) series (data to end-August) indicates that an improvement in spending intentions is underway in Australia. The combination of income tax refunds now flowing into bank accounts and an improving housing market is driving the lift. Significantly, the Home Buying intentions series has moved back into positive territory and this should help drive a further improvement in Retail spending intentions in the months ahead.
I don’t find other CBA spending indicators much use. This one combines real time CBA spending data with Google Trends analysis. We’ll track it and see how it goes.
So far, mixed! Full report.