Markets poised as US jobs report looms

  by Chris Becker Outside of Australia, markets have been moving sideways and shuffling waiting for the monthly employment stats to be released tonight in the United States – the nonfarm payrolls or NFP. This is the most important event on the economic calendar, as the strength of job creation is critical to the Federal


US stock boom is running out of puff

Although most will consider this week’s monthly meeting of the Federal Reserve as a non-event, it must be reminded that it coincides with the two year anniversary of the second longest ever bull market in US stocks history. At just over 2600 days, it will surpass the post WW2 to mid fifties boom, but still


Why is stock ownership falling?

An interesting divergence is occuring in stock markets as they reach ever higher levels, imbibed by helicopter money and/or century low interest rates, the ownership of those stocks is changing. Aside from the near complete crowding out of the volume – most of which is now done by robo-traders by only a handful of institutions


Yuan fix stable as calm returns to markets

The last fix of the week is in and the PBOC has continued its “steady as she goes…under” mood, with the mid-point set at 6.5572, slightly lower than yesterdays 6.5582 Chinese stocks look set to open up 1-2% while its all good in Japan, with the Nikkei up 3% On Australian stocks, the ASX200 is


Funds hold most cash since GFC

Is the bottom in? One of the greatest contrarian indicators during bear markets is when the “professionals” move to cash, and the latest Global Fund Managers Survey has current cash levels at their highest since the 2008 top: Early days yet but the ASX200 was up nearly 2% on the open as Yen weakened and Aussie


Understanding bears, bulls and clowns

Its not the end of the world folks. Headlines regarding market carnage, ridiculous bets between economists aside, you just need to print out this chart, lay it on the floor, stand on your desk and look at it: This is the S&P Composite stock index, taken back to 1900 and deflated by CPI, correctly displayed


Volatility is getting volatile

So far in 2016, most stock markets have lost in a few days what they normally gain over a year, highlighting the old adage that stocks go up a flight of stairs, but fall down an elevator shaft. Fear and Greed. Hasn’t changed even with HFT and algo’s. John Kicklighter from DailyFX has an interesting


Will buy the dip work in 2016?

Given Friday nights stonking non-farm payroll (NFP)/unemployment print from the US, comes this interesting chart from CLSA showing a correlation between the monthly print and the YoY change in the S&P500: Anyone who has observed markets since the GFC knows how much emphasis is placed on the monthly jobs number, setting the gauge if not


Should China stop its stock market crashing?

Yesterday was another short day for Chinese stock traders as trading was halted on the main exchanges less than half an hour after opening with falls in the 7-8% region: Put the falls into perspective though as the Shanghai Composite launched itself from ca. 2000 points to over 5000 points in less than a year:


Bitcoin won the 2015 battle of the currencies

But can it win the war? Here’s what happened last year, according to The Money Project: Using the benchmark of the U.S. Dollar Index, a comparison against a basket of major currencies, the dollar gained 8.3% throughout the year. Despite this strength, the best performing currency in 2015 was not the dollar. Bitcoin, a digital


Macro Morning (steady as she goes)

 by Chris Becker Calm descended on most risk markets overnight as the fallout from the NY day volatility on Chinese equity markets started to dissipate. A small bounce on stocks in Europe and the US was extended into slight gains on bond markets, but commodities were mixed as oil dropped but precious and industrial metals gained.


Apple is starting to smell a bit

News earlier this morning from the Nikkei Review that iPhone 6 production from Apple may be cut up to 30% in the first quarter: Apple is expected to reduce output of its latest iPhone models by around 30% in the January-March quarter compared with its original plans, a measure that will deal a blow to


Chinese yuan fix weakens, stocks slump again

The fix is in for the yuan, with the lowest level since April 2011 at 6.5169 against the USD, now 0.21% weaker, with news just in the PBOC is also going to inject 170 billion Yuan: Chinese equity markets have opened, with the Shanghai Composite down 3% at the open. Australian stocks have fallen already


Macro Morning (bath of blood)

 by Chris Becker Its going to be an interesting year thats for sure, with Chinese stock markets pummeled yesterday and huge volatility around the Iranian/Saudi diplomatic spit, plus a less than exciting ISM print in the US overnight, all boiling down to a significant loss of confidence in risk markets. Stocks were hammered, down 2-3%


How big was the China stock bubble?

by Chris Becker Predictions continue to be hard to make about the future, but there is no doubt that the most recent run up in Chinese equity prices was (is?) a bubble. And here’s another nail in the coffin to the “its all over” thesis. From Research Affiliates, via history squared, comes this chart tracking


Stocks not out of the woods

by Chris Becker The Federal Reserve kept its historically low interest rates on hold overnight in one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in recent years.  The takeaway is pretty simple, while the Fed is relatively happy with the domestic economy, although the inflation outlook has moderated and the labour market remains the key focus,


Waiting for the Fed

by Chris Becker If you thought the last couple weeks of market action was benign, get a load of whats coming up this week! The FOMC meeting on Friday morning (Australian time) is the big one that everybody will be watching as markets remain completely spooked by the spectre of a Chinese economic slowdown. Here’s


The BRICs are crumbling

by Chris Becker The potential for an emerging markets crisis rolls on as news this morning that Brazil’s rating and outlook have been cut by S&P on the back of its continuing fiscal crisis on plunging oil and commodity prices. From Bloomberg: Brazil’s sovereign rating was cut to junk by Standard & Poor’s, eliminating the


The Great Volatility continues

by Chris Becker Going through the archives, it seems whenever I write about volatility it tends to result in a short-term rally in, well everything. It’s not my fault, because I’m usually writing in response to market volatility spiking and/or a guru talking about volatility itself. I might be breaking that record today because overnight


ASX at the close

by Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, IG Japanese markets have been the standout performer in Asia today, seeing a record daily rise off the back of plans to cut corporate tax rates. Having said that, the methods by which theShanghai Composite (SHCOMP) is rising are somewhat concerning. Volumes in China’s futures markets have fallen dramatically


All praise Asian shares!

by Chris Becker No news is good news it seems with the very positive US lead overnight turning into a huge rally here in Asia come lunch time. Here’s the basic scoreboard (h/t to Patrick McGee): Nikkei +5.4% Topix +4.4% Shanghai +1.9% Shenzhen +3% Hang Seng +2.7% ASX +1.6% S&P 500 futures: +0.4% Aussie dollar


QE or not QE is no longer a question

by Chris Becker From the chaps at JPMorgan is a very simple chart with a powerful reality behind it. Via ZH: In the post GFC “Great Volatility” world, stock markets are not a reflection of the economy, but a reflection of the intervention of central banks in the economy. And Australia is not alone, where


The bottom is in for Chinese stocks (maybe)

Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks The voices, centrally located and authorative are growing that the “bottom is in” Chinese stocks: Authoritative voices send the bottom signal September may mark a turning point in the market! The risk in the market is mostly exhausted, some blue chips are reasonably priced! Buy Buy Buy! From


All praise China A-shares!

by Chris Becker Looks like a couple days holiday, a big parade followed by a relaxing weekend is doing wonders for risk appetite as Chinese shares open down, then lift heavenly upward, dragging along the Nikkei 225 and Yen: But sadly not so much Aussie shares, which opened down more than 1% to below 5000


Chinese stocks move into suss territory

by Chris Becker Eloquently put by the chaps at Forexlive, but the Shanghai Composite – down over 4% at the open – is now in positive territory after the lunch break! Nothing suss. (That’s an Australian saying for ‘nothing suspicious’). There is still the afternoon session to come, and after that China is closed until


Last day of the China stock market rout

by Chris Becker Closed on Thursday and Friday for celebrations and a big-ass military parade (because why not), today is the last day to trade Chinese shares for the week, which may give overseas traders some breathing room. Although the Shanghai Composite looks set to open down over 4% this morning, so maybe not… In other


All hail non-intervention of Chinese share markets!

by Chris Becker Or not? The Shanghai Composite is down 2.6% at the open – maybe time to arrest some more reporters? From ZH: If Chinese authorities are to be believed, we finally know the cause of the country’s stock market woes: a single reporter. In a video segment aired by China’s state television broadcaster,


China will not support stocks as Fed hawks spook risk

by Chris Becker Its been a dour Monday morning so far on the markets, with the AUD falling, S&P500 futures off 1% in reaction to two risk-off pieces of news coming out this weekend. This is not just early Monday morning illiquidity talking – something is spooking risk. First, everyone is talking about this cover