So says RaboBank though the AUD is not listening today: LOL-A-PLAZA Summary: The US is reportedly weighing a bilateral currency accord with China as part of a trade agreement Our trade scepticism also holds if we focus just on the purported currency accord The US will insist on China committing to a stable or stronger
In mid-2018, the US declared the China American Cold War a go. It comprised a series of ratcheting trade tariffs by the Trump Administration directed at China. these were directed largely at shifting global manufacturing supply chains, especially in technology, away from China. The measures were directed specifically at China’s stated aim of dominating global technology, artificial intelligence and robotics by 2025.
Other dimensions of the growing Great Power conflict included freedom of navigation through the South China Sea where China had constructed series of far-flung militarised atolls that armed the distant approaches to its mainland and effectively claimed that ocean as sovereign Chinese.
The Cold War was also concentrated around Chinese ‘sharp power’ which had made significant inroads in influencing policy outcomes within the US alliance network in and around the Asia Pacific via bribes, debt diplomacy and corruption of media.
The China American Cold War showed all of the characteristics of an historic, ideological struggle between liberal democracy and statist growth that had defined the 20th century battle between the US and the Soviet Union.
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Overnight, investors were buoyed by hopes of a trade deal, and apparent progress in Brexit negotiations: A possible narrow US-China trade deal: US President Trump suggested that talks with Chinese Vice Premier He were going well and that talks would not end prematurely as previously speculated. The
Part of my investment thesis on China is that the underlying structural issues have been laid bare by the trade war. Regardless of any face-saving deal, the problems will not go away. China’s reactions to three events in the past week appear increasingly unhinged and are likely to accelerate the process. Background China entered the
In response to current events & popular demand, the MB Fund is proud to announce a new suite of ethical options under the Human Rights category. These options will screen out companies that are located in countries that do not meet the criteria you have selected. No Undemocratic Countries Removes companies from countries that score
Via The Australian comes the oligarchs: Fortescue Metals Group boss Elizabeth Gaines has warned that China will look to develop alternative iron ore supplies outside the Pilbara if Australia neglects its relationship with its biggest trading partner…Ms Gaines said the Australian business community needed to maintain its influence in public debate on political policies. “The
The NBA is suddenly becoming collateral damage in the US/China economic war as the Congress demands it exits: 1. Build upon your statement of October 8 in which you said “the NBA will not put itself in a position of regulating what players, employees, and team owners say or will not say on these issues”
Via FTAlphaville: Some news Tuesday, via Bloomberg: The Trump administration is moving ahead with discussions around possible restrictions on portfolio flows into China, with a particular focus on investments made by US government retirement funds, people familiar with the internal deliberations said. China, so far, has pursued a policy of fighting fire-with-fire when it comes to
Dear God! Check this out from my old mate Guy Rundle today: According to many — Greg Sheridan and Henry Ergas were the local representatives — China was a totalitarian state controlling every aspect of its citizens’ lives. But, they said, the rule of the Chinese Communist Party had nothing to do with the country’s
ScoMo thinks so: Scott Morrison has named the ANZUS Treaty with the US, which formalised the Australia-US alliance and was negotiated and signed by the Menzies government in 1951, as “the single most important achievement” of the Liberal Party in government. In an exclusive interview to mark the party’s 75th anniversary, the Prime Minister said
We all know the story. Chinese kiddies wanted freedom so they staked out Tienanmen Square. The Chinese Communist Party shot them instead and drew up a new social contract that promised capitalism with Chinese characteristics in return for permanent CCP dictatorship. That’s the same deal you’re being offered today. Before you decide whether you want to
With the US trade war already booting global supply chains from China, the Hong Kong civil war about to turn that process nuclear, and the exhaustion of the Chinese development model all coming to head, it’s time we take a step back from the daily news flow to explore what this looks like in historical
Via SCMP: China’s ambassador to France has derided President Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic team for endorsing a “hypocritical” statement on Hong Kong issued by the European Union. Lu Shaye, who is known for his hardline remarks while he was ambassador to Canada, expressed “deep contempt” for Brussels, saying it was “glorifying” the use of violence by
At the New York Times: China — or, rather, the Chinese regime — is in trouble. Tuesday’s gigantic parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic looked like something out of the late Brezhnev era: endless military pomp and grey old men. Hong Kong is in its fourth straight month of
Via James Anderlini at the FT: The conclusion Beijing has drawn from the past four months of rage is the only one possible in an authoritarian — increasingly totalitarian — system: they were far too soft last time around. When the moment is right, they must act ruthlessly to punish Hong Kong. Just as in
Fresh from Bloomie: Chinese officials are signaling they’re increasingly reluctant to agree to a broad trade deal pursued by President Donald Trump, ahead of negotiations this week that have raised hopes of a potential truce. In meetings with U.S. visitors to Beijing in recent weeks, senior Chinese officials have indicated the range of topics they’re
From SCMP: Tens of thousands of Hong Kong protesters defied a new mask ban for a third straight day as a radical core went on a wrecking spree across the city, vandalising mainland China-linked property, setting fires and targeting police with noticeably bigger petrol bombs and engaging in bloody fist fights. The masked mobs smashed
Via New Daily: Convicted felon and former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos has praised Prime Minister Scott Morrison for his co-operation with the Russia probe, insisting that Alexander Downer was “spying” on him and it was “payback time”. In an interview with The New Daily, Mr Papadopoulos described his evening with Mr Downer, which sparked the investigation into Russian
Via John Fitzgerald is emeritus professor in the Centre for Social Impact at Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne. His books include Big white lie: Chinese Australians in white Australia and Awakening China: politics, culture and class in the Nationalist Revolution: As Australia is compelled to engage a more confrontational China, there’s a risk that political commentary and
Via Ray Dalio: The Threat to Limit Capital Flows to China and Pending Impeachment Conflict: Next Logical Steps in a Classic Dangerous Journey? The 1935-45 Analogue Regarding that classic dangerous journey, you have heard me describe it many times but, at the risk of boring you, I will repeat it. I believe that we are on
Via the ABC: A Hong Kong police officer shot a teenage protester at close range as fierce clashes between authorities and pro-democracy activists broke out in several parts of the city on Tuesday. While officers have previously fired warning shots in the air on multiple occasions during months of demonstrations in Hong Kong, this was
Courtesy of Sinocism: Hong Kong braces for ‘violent attack’ on sensitive Chinese anniversary: police – Reuters There will be a “very serious violent attack,” the chief superintendent of the police’s public relations branch, Tse Chun-chung, told a news conference on Monday. “We are on the verge of extreme danger.”.. Authorities are eager to avoid scenes
Not outgoing US flows, incoming Chinese flows. Previously via Michael Pettis: On July 31, 2019, U.S. Senators Tammy Baldwin and Josh Hawley submitted a bill “to establish a national goal and mechanism to achieve a trade-balancing exchange rate for the United States dollar, to impose a market access charge on certain purchases of United States assets, and
Great stuff from George Magnus, former UBS chief global economist and China doyen, in a terrific article by Angus Grigg: Magnus, who last year published Red Flags; Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy, cites demographics, debt levels and the lack of independent institutions as the key points of Beijing’s vulnerability. And he says any faltering
Via The Guardian: The Australian political blogger and novelist, Yang Hengjun, is currently being shackled in chains and interrogated inside a Beijing detention centre, and is being told by authorities he could face the death penalty for espionage. Detained in China since January, Yang continues to protest his innocence to authorities and says he can
It’s all the way with the USA, says David Crowe: Morrison believes that Australian interest is in telling China the old way cannot continue. This is a risk. Chinese observers already talk of a “freeze” in relations; now there is the prospect of a further chill. Morrison has logic on his side but will not
Is there progress? Via Reuters: U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a deal to end a nearly 15-month trade war with China could happen sooner than people think and that the Chinese were making big agricultural purchases from the United States, including of beef and pork. …“They want to make a deal very badly…
They come to visit as guests and spend most of the time pouring scorn upon you. Via Domain: Australia is the pioneer of a global anti-China campaign, a high-level Chinese embassy delegation has claimed, as relations between the two countries fall to among the worst in the developed world. Accusing Prime Minister Scott Morrison of
From the NYT: The combination on Friday of tough words from President Trump and the cancellation of a planned trip by Chinese agriculture officials to two farm states seemed to cast a cloud over prospects for a trade deal and caused a sell-off in New York stock trading. But both sides moved on Saturday to
If only “Labor” put as much effort into governing for the working classes as it did into China groveling. Via the AFR: Australia should embrace closer military co-operation with China, Labor deputy leader and defence spokesman Richard Marles has declared, labelling attempts to define Beijing as an enemy a “profound mistake”. In a significant speech