In mid-2018, the US declared the China American Cold War a go. It comprised a series of ratcheting trade tariffs by the Trump Administration directed at China. these were directed largely at shifting global manufacturing supply chains, especially in technology, away from China. The measures were directed specifically at China’s stated aim of dominating global technology, artificial intelligence and robotics by 2025.
Other dimensions of the growing Great Power conflict included freedom of navigation through the South China Sea where China had constructed series of far-flung militarised atolls that armed the distant approaches to its mainland and effectively claimed that ocean as sovereign Chinese.
The Cold War was also concentrated around Chinese ‘sharp power’ which had made significant inroads in influencing policy outcomes within the US alliance network in and around the Asia Pacific via bribes, debt diplomacy and corruption of media.
The China American Cold War showed all of the characteristics of an historic, ideological struggle between liberal democracy and statist growth that had defined the 20th century battle between the US and the Soviet Union.
Via the Daily Mail: The Labor Party has been reluctant to seek answers on why the Chinese frigates sailed into Sydney Harbour. The Opposition’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong, who hails from Labor’s left faction, didn’t pursue the issue in Senate Budget estimates committees last week. The Labor Opposition failed to ask even one question
Via FTAlphaville: Capital Economics has an interesting note out today on the impact of protest movements on growth in emerging markets. The note looks at the impact of dozens of large-scale protests and is worth reading in full, but we are going to focus on what it says about Hong Kong’s street movement. We think
US vice-President, Mike Pence, former nut job turned sane summed it Hong Kong nicely last night: “No longer will America and its leaders hope that economic engagement alone will transform Communist China’s authoritarian state into a free and open society that respects private property, the rule of law, and the international rules of commerce. Hong
Via Sinocism today: US China Trade War News: China May Buy $20 Billion in Farm Goods – Bloomberg China aims to buy at least $20 billion of agricultural products in a year if it signs a partial trade deal with the U.S., and would consider boosting purchases further in future rounds of talks, people familiar
It’s harvest time for Carrie Lam, via FT: Pro-democracy campaigners have warned China that its move to ditch Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s embattled leader, was unlikely to end the protests that have engulfed the territory. Beijing is drawing up plans to replace Ms Lam, with an “interim” chief executive possibly as early as March, after
Via Gottiboff today: Relations between Australia and China have rarely been worse and there has been a sudden slump in the buying of Australian real estate by mainland Chinese—led by lower demand for Sydney apartments. There are fears the real estate downturn may extend to education and tourism –an escalation that is almost certain if
As reported last week, via SCMP: A building frenzy in southern China’s answer to Silicon Valley has driven the vacancy in Grade A offices to a record high, putting the squeeze on part-time developers whose blind inexperience have led them into the industry. A record 1.79 million square metres (19.27 million sq ft) of vacancy, equivalent
Via The National Interest: The People’s Liberation Army Navy—more commonly known outside of China as the Chinese Navy—is modernizing at a breakneck pace. Chinese shipbuilders have built more than one hundred warships in the past decade, a build rate outstripping the mighty U.S. Navy. Most importantly, China now has two aircraft carriers—Liaoning and a second
Via Herald Sun: A close friend of Liberal MP Gladys Liu last year set up a group to campaign for China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative within Australia and the Pacific. Prominent property developer Chen Guo Jing has been described on Chinese language sites as the “implementer” of the Australasia Belt and Road Advocacy initiative.
This is probably the most frightening one hour of viewing I have seen since the end of Cold War. Kyle Bass with Gen. Robert Spalding: Pass it on.
From Nathan Attrill at Lowy Interpreter: In a week which began with images of Xi Jinping waving at his own giant portrait in a military parade for the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) 70th anniversary, it ended in an even more surreal manner – with a cartoon Winnie the Pooh being strangled to death in
Via Domain and drawn from the OMG files: A University of Queensland student has sought a court order similar to a restraining order against the Chinese Consul-General in Brisbane, Dr Xu Jie, who he claims has endangered him by describing him as an anti-Chinese separatist in a statement published on the Consul-General’s website. Drew Pavlou,
Via S&P: China would probably agree to a side deal on currency policy if it rests on allowing market forces to play a greater role, said S&P Global Ratings today in a report titled “Trade Deal Entree With A Side Of Currency.” The U.S. has become fond of including currency provisions in its recent trade
Pulling a LeBron James might enter the lexicon as something along the lines of: “as, of, or pertaining to, selling out liberal values for a Chinese Communist Party buck”. Sinocism has the links: Charania: Inside what went on among Nets and Lakers players on the ground in China amid the NBA-China conflict – The Athletic $$
Via Bloomie: Hong Kong’s subway system has closed early for more than a week, effectively cutting off the main mode of transportation for millions of residents. Many are now wondering how long it will last. Following unprecedented vandalism on the night of Oct. 4, when Chief Executive Carrie Lam banned face masks after invoking emergency
Can’t vouch for it but makes sense: Via Crikey last week: Feng Chongyi works from a small, cramped office at Sydney’s University of Technology, where he is associate professor in China Studies. Hanging on his wall is a photo of him, in 2006, sitting with top liberals and democrats within the Communist Party’s Central Committee.
Via Damien Boey from Credit Suisse: On Friday evening, the Trump administration announced a partial trade deal with China (Phase I). Key ingredients of the deal include: Delay of tariff increases that would have taken effect on 15 October. Increases in Chinese purchases of US agricultural products. Intellectual property measures. Greater currency transparency. Greater concessions
Perhaps this explains Peter Dutton’s sudden China hawkishness, via the ABC: Australia’s top universities could be aiding the Chinese Communist Party’s mission to develop mass surveillance and military technologies, amid rising concerns from Australian intelligence agencies that they are putting national security at risk. A joint Four Corners-Background Briefing investigation has uncoveredextensivecollaborations between Australian universities
DXY fell sharply Friday night as CNY and EUR took off: AUD was up and away versus DMs: Less so against EMs: Gold was hit: Oil lifted: Metals too: Big miners flew: With EM stocks: And DM junk: Bonds were all hosed: And stocks jumped: Westpac has the event wrap: A partial US-China trade deal had been
Via the ABC: One of the Morrison Government’s most senior figures has taken a direct swipe at Beijing, accusing the Chinese Communist Party of behaving in ways that are “inconsistent” with Australian values. The Home Affairs Minster also criticised China’s Belt and Road Initiative and defended a ban on using Huawei to help build Australia’s
So says RaboBank though the AUD is not listening today: LOL-A-PLAZA Summary: The US is reportedly weighing a bilateral currency accord with China as part of a trade agreement Our trade scepticism also holds if we focus just on the purported currency accord The US will insist on China committing to a stable or stronger
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Overnight, investors were buoyed by hopes of a trade deal, and apparent progress in Brexit negotiations: A possible narrow US-China trade deal: US President Trump suggested that talks with Chinese Vice Premier He were going well and that talks would not end prematurely as previously speculated. The
Part of my investment thesis on China is that the underlying structural issues have been laid bare by the trade war. Regardless of any face-saving deal, the problems will not go away. China’s reactions to three events in the past week appear increasingly unhinged and are likely to accelerate the process. Background China entered the
In response to current events & popular demand, the MB Fund is proud to announce a new suite of ethical options under the Human Rights category. These options will screen out companies that are located in countries that do not meet the criteria you have selected. No Undemocratic Countries Removes companies from countries that score
Via The Australian comes the oligarchs: Fortescue Metals Group boss Elizabeth Gaines has warned that China will look to develop alternative iron ore supplies outside the Pilbara if Australia neglects its relationship with its biggest trading partner…Ms Gaines said the Australian business community needed to maintain its influence in public debate on political policies. “The
The NBA is suddenly becoming collateral damage in the US/China economic war as the Congress demands it exits: 1. Build upon your statement of October 8 in which you said “the NBA will not put itself in a position of regulating what players, employees, and team owners say or will not say on these issues”
Via FTAlphaville: Some news Tuesday, via Bloomberg: The Trump administration is moving ahead with discussions around possible restrictions on portfolio flows into China, with a particular focus on investments made by US government retirement funds, people familiar with the internal deliberations said. China, so far, has pursued a policy of fighting fire-with-fire when it comes to
Dear God! Check this out from my old mate Guy Rundle today: According to many — Greg Sheridan and Henry Ergas were the local representatives — China was a totalitarian state controlling every aspect of its citizens’ lives. But, they said, the rule of the Chinese Communist Party had nothing to do with the country’s
ScoMo thinks so: Scott Morrison has named the ANZUS Treaty with the US, which formalised the Australia-US alliance and was negotiated and signed by the Menzies government in 1951, as “the single most important achievement” of the Liberal Party in government. In an exclusive interview to mark the party’s 75th anniversary, the Prime Minister said
We all know the story. Chinese kiddies wanted freedom so they staked out Tienanmen Square. The Chinese Communist Party shot them instead and drew up a new social contract that promised capitalism with Chinese characteristics in return for permanent CCP dictatorship. That’s the same deal you’re being offered today. Before you decide whether you want to
