US Economy

Goldman with the note.

Goldman with the note.

Goldman with the note.

Deutsche with the note: Economic forecasters and inflation traders are widely expecting tomorrow’s CPIrelease to show another 7-plus percent number for year-on-year inflation in January, setting up a new record for the post-Volcker era.

Goldman with the note.

This is now front and centre for the global growth accident coming swiftly down the pipe.

Missed among the Facebook/Amazon microphone drops and the hawks in Brexit-land and Brussels circling around rate levers where the latest US Markit/ISM services PMI and factory orders data for December.

George Soros on the warpath: The potential for a massive property sector collapse that infects the entire economy will expose Mr Xi’s flaws in governance, he said.

The Fed is now talking 50bps hikes: The Federal Reserve could opt to raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points if a more aggressive approach to taming inflation is needed, Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, told the Financial Times in an interview.\ Bring it on!

Well there it is – proof the US Federal Reserve is way behind the ball on tackling inflation which will have massive implication for global markets in 2022.

Goldman with the note. By year-end, it’ll be back to secular stagnation. A tragedy for the US. After negotiations on the Build Back Better (BBB) Act stalled late last year, the outlook for fiscal legislation is particularly unclear.

It’s that time of month where traders gather round their screens to see what the full picture of US unemployment, and hence the direction the Federal Reserve will take in the following month with regards to monetary policy.

BofA Global Research with the note: The December FOMC meeting minutes included a lengthy discussion of the timing and speed of Fed balance sheet shrinkage (quantitative tightening or “QT”).

Goldman Sachs with the note: We expect that sequential wage growth will decelerate from its 5-6% pace in 2021 Q2 and Q3 to around 4% in 2022.

Risk markets took a big deep breath overnight with the release of the Federal Reserve’s December minutes, which showed a much more hawkish path ahead in 2022 for the bank followed by all other banks as labour market conditions and rising inflation spook the wonks.

Goldman Sachs with the note: Inflation trends: The core PCE price index rose 0.46% month-over-month in November to a new three-decade high of 4.68% year-on-year, and core CPI inflation rose to 4.96%.

And you think Australian property is booming?

Wall Street couldn’t wait for the new year to hit new time highs, having lifted nearly 30% in 2021, capping off one of the best years in history.

Westpac sees yesterday’s Federal Reserve policy decisions, whereby the pace of tapering was doubled and indications of rate rises in 2022 was both brought forward and doubled in scope, as indicative of US economic strength and why “normalization” is being accelerated.

Goldman Sachs with the note: In the spring, we wrote that shelter inflation would rise to 30-year high on the back of substantial home price appreciation and a rapidly improving labor market.