Calculated Risk does the analysis. CR was superb in the lead-up to the GFC (and ever since). Bill McBride is neither a rusted-on bull nor bear. If he is right then the Fed has more work to do.
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It is clear that over the next year house price growth will slow from the torrid 20% year-over-year (YoY) pace in February (and likely also in the March report that will be released later this month). I think there are three likely scenarios going forward for house prices that I’ll call “slow”, “stall” and “bust”.