New Zealand Economy

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As NZ population booms, dwelling supply is falling

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Yesterday, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed, with trend number of new homes consented decreasing 15% in the five months to January 2017: “Most regions appear

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NZ Treasury: Government lacking Auckland land supply plan

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply has already taken a hammering courtesy of record immigration easily eclipsing dwelling construction, leading to worsening housing shortages. Now an independent report prepared for Treasury that the Government tried to keep secret claims the Government lacks

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Housing the dominant concern of Kiwi voters

By Leith van Onselen With New Zealand headed to the polls on 23 September 2017, Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released special polling confirming voter angst over housing, with 26% of respondents citing housing as most important issue facing the nation, comprising 15% most concerned about affordability/increasing prices and 11% concerned about homelessness/housing shortages. These

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Housing pressure intensifies for NZ Government

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering in the lead-up to the September 23 General Election. Last week it was Statistics New Zealand’s latest demographic data, which revealed that Auckland’s population had grown by around 200,000 (over 13%)

2

Australia’s kiwi exodus passes peak

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for January 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 71,305 people: As noted by Interest.co.nz: Statistics NZ said 56,231 arriving migrants said they intended to settle in Auckland during the

0

Population ponzi drives up Auckland rents

By Leith van Onselen Last week, Statistics New Zealand released demographic data revealing that Auckland’s population had grown by around 200,000 (over 13%) in just four years, with the region’s population also projected to grow by between 37% (low growth scenario) and 75% (high growth scenario) between 2013 and 2043: In addition to driving-up house

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NZ house prices to fall 12%

By Leith van Onselen After last year forecasting an 11% fall in New Zealand house prices by 2019, economic analysis and forecasting firm, Infometrics, has forecast a 12% decline in house values by 2020 on the back of falling population growth (net migration) and rising interest rates: “Mortgage holders in Auckland look particularly vulnerable to

1

Auckland population projections reveal choking growth

By Leith van Onselen The National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply has taken another hammering, with new population projections from Statistics New Zealand estimating that Auckland’s population will rise between 37% (low growth scenario) and 75% (high growth scenario) between 2013 and 2043: In number terms, the projections equate

2

Suddenly, NZ’s record household debt no longer matters

By Leith van Onselen You know it’s an election year when New Zealand’s Finance Minister and senior banking officials seemingly perform a 180-degree turn to downplay the risks relating to New Zealand’s record household debt and over-valued housing. From Interest.co.nz: ‘Move along, there’s nothing to see here’ appears to be the attitude of some of

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Aussie banks exposed to double bubbles

By Leith van Onselen A day after ANZ bank warned that Auckland’s housing shortage would worsen in the period ahead, ratings agency Standard and Poors (S&P) has followed suit. From Interest.co.nz: The credit rating agency estimates a housing supply shortage of between 30,000 and 40,000 dwellings in Auckland. “With banks reporting a tightening in lending standards for

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Auckland’s housing shortage will get worse

By Leith van Onselen I wrote a few weeks back how the National Government in New Zealand has backed the wrong housing policy in focusing solely on boosting housing supply, while ignoring altogether demand-side drivers like record immigration (brought about, in part by the Government’s own policies), tax lurks, and speculative foreign investment. This view

7

NZ house prices plunge in January

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for January, which revealed a seasonal 5.0% monthly fall in the national median house price, with prices up 9.4% year-on-year: Outside Auckland, house prices fell by 5.6% in January, with prices up 9.8% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities, Auckland’s median house price

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NZ Government is failing on housing supply

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to September’s General Election, pressure continues to build on the incumbent National Government of New Zealand around the issue of housing affordability. Yesterday, Interest.co.nz’s David Hargreaves penned a stinging critique of National’s promise to boost housing supply in Auckland, which has fallen way below demand: This is a

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RBNZ holds OCR at 1.75%, raises forecast

By Leith van Onselen As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has held the official cash rate (OCR) at 1.75%. According to the release accompanying the decision, RBNZ governor, Graeme Wheeler, noted that the global environment has improved, New Zealand financial and economic conditions have firmed, and house price inflation has moderated:

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NZ opposition takes aim at foreign property buyers

By Leith van Onselen With the New Zealand General Election scheduled for 23 September 2017, debate over housing affordability continues to heat up. On Tuesday, opposition Labour Party leader, Andrew Little, flagged that he would take aim to remove “foreign speculators” from the housing market. From Interest.co.nz: Labour Party leader Andrew Little responded by saying

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NZ unemployment rises to 5.2%

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has this morning released its labour force data for the December quarter, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.2% from 4.9% on the back of more workers looking for jobs (thanks in part to record immigration). The key changes are outlined in the below table: As shown above,

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Australia’s kiwi exodus pulls back

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for December 2016, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 70,558 people: In the year to December 2016, there was a net inward migration of people from Australia of 1,563 people,

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New NZ PM facing immense pressure over housing

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s release of the 2017 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey has stepped-up pressure on New Zealand’s National Government, and new Prime Minister Bill English, to undertake genuine housing market reforms in a bid to restore some semblance of affordability. The latest Demographia report showed New Zealand’s Median Multiple (median house price