Markets

6

Macro Morning (no relief)

by Chris Becker It appeared as the European sessions gap opened down over the weekend and then rallied, as markets did in thin Asian trade yesterday morning, that some relief was in sight. As US stock markets opened that relief was replicated until near the close when everything tanked, with cash markets dropping another 1-1.5%

3

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker Oh what a night! The release of last months FOMC meeting minutes by the Federal Reserve, with their very dovish outlook, crunched the USD and spiked risk all across the board. Daily reversals of this scope and magnitude are rare, but not unusual in markets and for the last five or so

8

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker Maybe I should insert a gloomy cloud picture above, because for markets waking up in Asia this morning, its all dour news overnight. The double whammy of a slowdown in the engineroom of Europe, with German industrial production slumping in August plus an across the board downgrade in global growth by the

6

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker It was an inauspicious start to the trading week last night as US and European stocks faltered following the mad dash on Friday nights NFP print. Bond markets were notably quiet but the action was again in currencies, with King US Dollar slipping off its throne sending all of the crosses higher.

2

Trading Week: Commodities rout

by Chris Becker It only takes one data print to reverse a correction, and the one we all love to hate, the US Non-farm payrolls is the corker! Friday’s print dragged unemployment below the 6% level and dragged stocks up by the coat-tails arresting a very mild, but much talked about dip. But is buy

1

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker The so-called plunge protection team (PPT) was out in force last night after more market jitters regarding the ECB’s hand waving but no real action, the continued scare about Ebola in the US, and a mixed dataset (good jobs, bad factory orders, etc). As the ECB held its rate gun (and is

7

The most watched trendline ever?

by Chris Becker You may well think that technical analysis is up there in terms of whackery as say, tea leaf reading or astrology or modern economic dogma. But it seems every analyst in the world – and that includes pretty much all asset management funds – are watching the 2009-2014 trendline on US stocks: Theres

1

Charlie Aitken goes bearish

by Chris Becker One of the biggest permabulls out there, Bell Potters Charlie Aitken, has clanged the warning bell, from Livewire: I am increasingly concerned that cracks are appearing in US equities and Wall St itself will become the next trading victim of the resurgent US Dollar and an increase in volatility. On that basis

1

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker We’re at that stage in market psychology where even good(ish) news gets talked down and converted into a further excuse to sell, plus the usual scaremongering over terrorism, Ebola and wearing a burqa (niqab). Risk off is the meme of the moment, with US and European stock markets falling, the latter down

7

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker We’re getting into the juicy part of the week when some significant data prints are ramping up volatility across the markets along with the usual end of month/end of quarter shakedown. Its still all about USD strength as this chart of monthly performance shows (via Forexlive): It all began with a Euro

0

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker Last nights action on markets was interesting to say the least, and fun for this little black duck (although lack of sleep is hurting this morning). Monday nights in Europe and the US session seem to have a greater sense of volatility about them and last night was no different, as the

1

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker It will be an interesting morning here in Asia as the rally in US stocks on Friday night looks set to confuse the shorts and embolden the bulls looking for dips. Factor in a very disappointing industrial profits number from China on the weekend (lowest in two years) and the ongoing riots

2

Trading Week

by Chris Becker I’m back for another week (and maybe two!)  so another instalment of Trading Week is ready to go! Its been a hectic week and one where major support positions were taken out in stock markets and FX. This report is one I compile each week for my own trading decisions, and does

1

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker Finally some decent volatility! A one-two punch with the Fed’s Fisher indicating rate rises are sooner on the agenda then later and a terrible durable goods order print for August sent markets reeling last night in some of the biggest moves this year. The S&P500 was off 1.6% and the other US

4

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker The easy explained meme at the moment is to go long US and short Europe, and this was reinforced last night on the data release flow. The closely watched German IFO survey surprised on the downside with expectations turning negative, but later in the session it was an upside surprise in US

2

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker A swathe of PMI releases in Europe and the US moved markets as much as the new airstrikes in Syria. The story was all US dollar as the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the Markit PMI both showed solid gains, which reinforced USD strength around the entire risk complex. US stocks though

1

Steam in US stocks diverges

by Chris Becker Last night’s 0.8% fall on the US S&P500 index hid a greater down move on the small-cap biased Russell 2000, losing 1.5% with more than half of the stocks below the closely watched 200 day moving average. Is this a sign the US bull market is over? Not quite – but the divergence

2

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker Monday nights with no real data releases are always fun on macro markets – not. But at least last night we saw the broad return of volatility, with a relatively big slide in the S&P500 down 17 points to below 2000 at 1993. This “slump” (I love how the negativity on reporting

15

Trading Week

by Chris Becker Its a solid week ahead for local and global markets so let’s take a technical look where they are at the moment and analyse the risks and opportunities available. This report is one I compile each week for my own trading decisions, and does not constitute investment advice. I may have positions,

10

Macro Morning (gold rocket)

by Chris Becker Gold to the moon up nearly 4% overnight! Gold was slowly bid through the Asian session yesterday afternoon, had a quiet London and then bazinga was off like a rocket going straight through $1300 USD an ounce. Here’s the hourly chart: I only had a small long set overnight as I thought

1

Returns on offer in frontier markets

By Chris Becker Today I want to take a closer look at some lesser followed stock markets, particularly those outside the normally quoted bourses on the evening news, and where more opportunities are likely to be found, as the liquidity rush to find yield  around the world quickens. While the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far

2

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker My normal routine, if you can call trading 16 hours a day normal, around monthly FOMC (and NFP print) meetings is to get up a bit earlier with trigger fingers ready awaiting the press conference. Since I needed more sleep last night (blogging takes a harsher toll!) I set some limit orders

11

ASX at the close

by Chris Weston IG The FOMC meeting now takes centre stage, with traders hoping we don’t see the same sort of confusion seen after the March press conference. Source:Bloomberg The damage limitation that ensued after Janet Yellen’s initial view expressed during the press conference that interest rates could go up six months after the Fed

2

Positioning for the Fed taper

by Chris Becker As the Asian session wanders into the pre-European open, the market news is starting to echo the positioning of the various institutions getting ready for the Fed’s FOMC meeting later tonight. The overall trend is one of hawkishness – all eyes are on the Fed to continue its “tapering” of asset purchases

3

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker An extremely event driven night on world markets which started after the Asian session closed with a series of European based releases – British CPI and German/EZ sentiment surveys – first played havoc on European stocks, pound sterling and the Euro, the latter reinforced by USD strength coming into the NY open

7

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker There was good news all round for the US economy last night which sent some volatility through stock markets, but not much across the pond or indeed in the commodity complex. The New York Fed Empire survey showed improved conditions while industrial production for May ramped up above expectations. This will give

2

ASX at the close

By Stan Shamu for Chris Weston, IG It has predictably been a mixed start to the week, with a lack of drivers to dictate price action. As a result Asia has been left to its own devises and investors seem reluctant to bid equities higher. The one factor in play at the moment is an

4

Trading Week

By Chris Becker What a week in macro markets – it’s time again to have a both a closer and long term look from a technical analysis point of view. Here’s the link to last weeks review. Remember, the following views are my own, do not constitute advice and are for information purposes only. As a full-time

0

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker Monday mornings are always the worst time of the week for Asian markets as the lead from the US and Europe is a couple days old and we have to absorb any news/events/releases over the weekend – i.e no handholding. The dominant stories are Iraq and Ukraine – which should see energy

15

Confusing investing with allocation of savings

by Chris Becker Following the discussion yesterday on “Are Shares Crazy?” here’s an excellent example of what I was trying to say, via Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capitalism: Before we begin, we are all “active” investors to some degree.  No one, not a single one of us, can implement a truly passive index strategy in the