Goldman with the note:
The November FOMC minutes provided little new insight into the FOMC’s tapering plans. All participants judged it appropriate to announce the start of tapering at the November meeting and “some” participants favored a faster taper, but the September minutes had already revealed that “several” participants advocated for a more rapid reduction of purchases. Inflation commentary in the minutes was hawkish on net, however and since the November meeting, several FOMC members have signaled openness to discussing a faster taper at upcoming meetings. Taken together, we believe that there is a significant risk that the taper timeline is accelerated, which would increase the odds that liftoff comes earlier than our July 2022 forecast…
Despite cross-currents, yields remain biased higher. A new wave of Covid infections in Europe and the potential growth and inflation impacts from the lockdowns raise questions about a similar outcome in the US. While a winter Covid wave in the US looks likely, our economists believe the economic impact will be less pronounced than in Europe. US yields have been rising despite fears of another outbreak, largely on account of fairly strong activity and inflation data, and more recently the renomination of Chair Powell for a second term.
