Gold

14

How does gold reach $3000?

Via Goldman: Historically, gold’s relationship with inflation is non-linear. Gold does not display a strong correlation with inflation while the latter is moderate but becomes strongly correlated when inflation gets above a certain threshold. Gold also tends to go up moderately in deflationary environments. In fact, we find that what matters most is the deviation of inflation

12

BofAML: Gold to $3000

BofAML calls it: Gold prices have performed well in the recent period As the ultimate store of value, gold prices have performed well during the past 15 months, posting a rally of over 10% since the Federal Reserve did a monetary policy U-turn in January 2019. Gold has also delivered a strong performance against other asset

61

Is gold’s bull run finally here?

The answer is a qualified yes for USD priced gold: Gold will run as the underpinnings of the USD weaken. There is plenty of that going on with the mass demolition of both fiscal and monetary discipline. Further upside will come if we see any kind of global recovery and capital floods out of the

17

Gold breaks out. Why?

Here it is: In Aussie dollars it is very shiny: Yet most prominent local miners are lagging badly (with a few notable exceptions) What gives? It’s not entirely clear why gold is rallying given DXY is also on a charge. There are two possible explanations. First, as COVID-19 threatens a pandemic, gold is bid as

3

Will gold save the Lucky Country?

Clyde Russell asks an uncharacteristically stupid question: Is Australia the ultimate commodity hedge? When looking at the country’s natural resources the focus tends to be as its status as the world’s biggest exporter of iron ore and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and its competition with Indonesia as the top shipper of coal. But this ignores

15

The case for gold explodes

Literally like a mushroom cloud. AUD gold is at a massive new record highs this morning ans still climbing: Why? Get a load of this lot. First, after further US/China trade tariffs, CNY is crashing: Markets now fear that Trump will order his Treasury to intervene in the USD, a big bullish gold play. Second,

40

Gold to 10k?

So says Jim Rickards at the AFR: He said there is only a 35 per cent chance of a recession in the US over the next year, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s change in monetary policy direction in July when the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 2-2.25 per cent. …He said

12

Bitcoin not so golden after all?

Here’s the chart: The BTC news flow has been a bit rough with Barclays pulling the pin: The most prestigious banking relationship in crypto has ended. Barclays, the London-based global bank, is no longer working with cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, industry sources told CoinDesk. And while Coinbase found a replacement in U.K. upstart ClearBank, according to

7

Golden rocket departs atmosphere

AUD gold is blasting along at new record highs today  at $2240 give or take: Miners whoa: Making BTC look boring, though it is hanging onto its gold link: There’s no end in immediate sight but I remain quite concerned that the rally will reverse quickly if we enter true risk off complete with a

9

Gold bull market over or just getting started?

Van Eck is bullish, at the AFR: Joe Foster, who picks gold stocks for VanEck’s 63-year old International Investors Gold Fund, said Australian gold miners are generally well managed but are unusually prone to locking gold prices into multi-year hedge arrangements. “Australians have more of a propensity to hedge than their North American counterparts. I

22

Australian dollar gold to the moon

A picture is worth a thousand words: The MB Fund rotated from iron ore miners to gold miners a month or two ago. I still worry that if this global shock really gets going then gold will also suffer as the USD attracts a massive safe haven bid. There is also the concern that with

14

Ray Dalio: Buy gold

Via Ray Dalio: One of my investment principles is: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of

2

Gold stumbles but hasn’t lost its shine yet

by Chris Becker We’ve seen Bitcoin crater in recent days, but the true fallout from the G20 trade war truce maybe the real Minsky Metal – gold. Yesterday saw the biggest one day fall in over a year, nearly 2% to $1384USD an ounce after recently hitting a six year high before the summit, with

8

If Bitcoin is virtual gold then what’s it worth?

Beware the magazine cover indicator! The AFR went BTC wild yesterday: …bitcoin is back in a big way. The virtual currency has jumped by 50 per cent over the past three weeks. As for what’s next, the boom and bust of 2017-18 is both a warning of what can go wrong and a promise of

29

Is Bitcoin back?

Bitcoin is back: I won’t even pretend that this is sustainable. Nothing has changed for crypto in my book. It is as worthless and useless as ever. With the same inbuilt contradiction: that if it succeeds it can only fail, given it’s only purpose is subvert a fiat currency system that it does not control.

27

Gold shines for Australian dollar bears

From some dill at Domain: Gold has just had its longest winning streak in 18 months, as investors get nervous about the impact of the Trump trade wars on economic growth, and the US Federal Reserve looks likely to cut rates. Once again, excitement surrounding the “quasi-currency” metal is building – and the gold bugs

9

The Fed gooses the golden egg

by Chris Becker Gold has tracked higher alongside the Trump government shutdown and following the January FOMC meeting overnight, has now burst through the $1300USD per ounce level to make a new six monthly high priced in USD: The Fed’s shift into a somewhat dovish stance was not based on the underlying US economy – although

2

Gold rising as China lifts its reserves

by Chris Becker What’s going on with gold? While there has been some recent weakness in the US Dollar Index, 2018 was the year for USD against almost all the major currencies as the US Federal Reserve continued to lift interest rates in an attempt at normalisation. Still, the price of gold in USD rose

20

Sell gold! Or why the US dollar is not going to weaken

Via Bloomie: The U.S. dollar may be poised to decline, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday boosted the chances that the central bank will pause interest-rate increases, strategists at Goldman wrote in a note Saturday. Powell cited the events of 2016, when rates were kept unchanged through

27

Gold hits record high in Australian dollar terms

by Chris Becker Yesterday’s flash crash on currency markets had another silver lining – the price of gold in AUD reached a new record high at over $1879AUD per ounce: It’s been a near rocket ride since the equity slump, proving gold’s usefulness as a Minsky Metal in times of stress: Although the daily chart

14

Is gold proving its worth as a safe haven?

Goldman says so, via Bloomie: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that “fear” has made a comeback and gold is benefiting as stocks slide and investors fret more about the possibility that the U.S. economy may tumble back into recession. Bullion’s recent advance “happened on the back of the market sell-off and spike in volatility,” analysts

8

Desperate goldbugs cling to sinking safe haven

Via Bloomie: Don’t write off gold in the battle of the havens. Bullion has lost out in a paradigm shift where the metal’s no longer viewed as the traditional refuge when investors are in a risk-off mood, but that won’t last, according to Rick Rule, chief executive officer of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc. Investors are

28

Gold again proves disastrous as a risk hedge

I’ve been having this conversation regularly lately. Gold is falling and breaking support just as global markets tilt towards a possible risk accident: Once again gold is proving that it is the absolute opposite of a cyclical safe haven. When markets crash so does it. Notice that exactly the same thing during the GFC, even

28

Gold’s tough road is too congested to last

by Chris Becker It’s been a tough road for those long gold, particularly in USD terms, with the “precious” metal losing over $100 per ounce in the last two months: This is part of a secular decline, with gold being in a bear market for over seven years, having peaked at $1920USD per ounce in September

27

Why is gold not shining?

It’s supposed to be looking up for gold, with increased consumer demand and a series of central banks, including Russia, dumping US Treasuries to buy the shiny undollar. So why are prices – in USD terms at least – in the doldrums? According to the World Gold Council, overall demand in Q1 2018 was down

11

Is gold a hedge for trade wars?

Via Bloomberg: Gold will surge to the highest level in five years if a global trade war breaks out, according to Rick Rule, chief executive officer of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., who’s been involved in the market for four decades. Bullion could top $1,400 an ounce in 2018 as escalating trade tensions drive investors to