Elon Musk may have just saved Bitcoin

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Oh, really?


Cripes, who could have seen that coming? The world’s pin-up boy for renewable transformation backing out of the world’s most environmentally destructive ponzi-scheme.

The funny part about it is, Elon Musk has just increased BTC’s chances of survival, and thus marginally decreased the chances of species and Tesla survival.

Why? Because BTC has no future as a normal currency used for the exchange of value in everyday transactions. That is the sole preserve of the sovereign, the source of its taxation powers and, frankly, its power.

Unless HODLers are planning on arming themselves with 21 aircraft carriers to take on the US navy in the near future then nothing is going to change that and any attempt to try will be mercilessly crushed.

To be honest, I’m surprised it has not happened already:

No doubt the state’s reticence is partly the result of various ponzi-titans corrupting policy but that does not mean it won’t happen. It will. The US SEC was out yesterday with the warning:

The Division of Investment Management (“IM”) staff strongly encourages any investor interested in investing in a mutual fund with exposure to the Bitcoin futures market, as discussed below, to carefully consider the risk disclosure of the fund, the investor’s own risk tolerance, and the possibility, as with all investing, of investor loss. Among other things, investors should understand that Bitcoin, including gaining exposure through the Bitcoin futures market, is a highly speculative investment. As such, investors should consider the volatility of Bitcoin and the Bitcoin futures market, as well as the lack of regulation and potential for fraud or manipulation in the underlying Bitcoin market. As with any fund investment, investors should focus on the level of risk they are taking on, and the level of risk they are comfortable taking on, prior to making an investment.

The only thing that can save BTC is that it does NOT evolve into an exchange of value currency. Commensurately, if it can persuade enough investors that it is a store of value, like gold, then it can operate as an alternative asset leveraged to the various inflation and deflations of the presiding fiat.

To my mind, BTC as digital gold is almost as pointless as BTC as money, but at least that path enjoys basic political economy logic.

Gold and BTC can then compete over which is worse for the environment!

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. Ronin8317MEMBER

    If only there is a way to convert a BitCoin back into the electricity needed to compute it..

  2. Aussie1929MEMBER

    Look at hedera hashgraph, eftpos australia is wanting to use it for payments in Australia. Also Google, IBM, TATA just to name a few big players on the council. It uses fk all energy. Its currently sub $1usd. Check out aussie company Powerledger too, TATA is using it in India. Sell excess renewable energy to the market and cut out the middle man.

    • I just had a look at the hedera site, 10K TPS is impressive but will need to scale further for true global adoption. Visa and MC can do 4000 a second in production and they only service about 1/10th of global transactions. We need something that can get close to 1m TPS. The cost is very good and outcompetes any mainstream network.

      Anyways, they have actually recognized the need of a truly global payments network which BTC or ETH is not and can never be.

      “1. Cryptocurrency txns throttled at 10k tps and will increase in the future. Sharding to enable unlimited tps. For Hedera, the range is shown for transactions not requiring a transaction record but can receive a transaction receipt.”

  3. mikef179MEMBER

    World’s most environmentally destructive ponzi-scheme? You’re talking about the petrodollar right? The one where the US govt gets in bed with the Saudis and the Saudis use that money to help fund the US war machine (not environmentally friendly) as well as extremist Islam and terrorism. And the US can’t say anything bad about them because of this scheme. I mean, look how much good that has done for the world.

    It amazes me that the environmentally friendly crew aren’t criticizing a fossil-fuel oil-backed currency more.

    Anyway, Musk is a troll. He should stick to rockets.

  4. To understand elon pretend you are going into a class of grade six students. Those grade six students have no idea why your doing what your doing and infact they are all laughing at you but at the end of the day you are twice as smart as them so you don’t give a f#ck

    • mikef179MEMBER

      I agree, generally speaking, but it doesn’t mean he is an expert on everything. His crypto knowledge is either sorely lacking or he is scamming. One or the other. You only need to look at DogeCoin.

      • Not one or the other. Elon has said that the biggest problem with smart people is that they think they are smart.. in this case Elon has made a decision thinking its a good decision then some later down the line has said, Elon this mining is bad for the environment and he has reassessed and changed his mind. The ability to change his mind is what sets Elon apart from other elite entrepreneurs. Exactly how Steve Jobs was.

        • That’s how I read it, it’s also his autism spectrum I think. His mind doesn’t work like most regular people’s and therefore he hasn’t the same filter. Twitter of course is an amplifier.

        • mikef179MEMBER

          It’s actually dumb. Apply the same logic to electric cars. They have increased consumption of electricity, and therefore in many places, coal.

          You don’t see Elon advocating that people shouldn’t buy them until the renewable issue has been sorted.

          He’s a hypocrite.

  5. BakuninMEMBER

    So, Musk invests millions on BTC and just realises this now. This is a sign to SELL TLSA.

    Why does Elon Musk even need to make these market-moving public announcements? It’s open to inside information and potential fraud. Concerning.

    Amber hurt his feelings and he needs to vent because he sounds unhinged and this smells to high heaven.

    What have you got against innovation and new technology D-LS?

    • BrentonMEMBER

      What have you got against innovation and new technology D-LS?

      You just had a spray at a bloke who has revolutionized the automotive and aerospace industries for posting some tweets about your pet pixels. Missing the irony there? Probably need to review an asset that can be moved by 20% in a single day off the back of a tweet.

      • BakuninMEMBER

        So you reckon it’s an asset?!

        Being a pet pixler, I’ll take that as an admission.

        I’m not the only one who thinks Musk is being unhinged here.

        Nice tatt. Lol

  6. BrentonMEMBER

    You can tell the ones that are ballz deep into crypto based off how emotional and hyperbolic they are on Musk at present. You’d think the bloke had morphed into the antichrist or something.

    What amazes me is that the crypto crowd seem to think that a diversified portfolio involves a basket of different crpytos. They’re all chanting laser eyes on the rallies and diamond hands on the crashes. It’s like some crazy cult has taken over.

  7. Ghost of Stewie Griffin

    The entire $2trillion crypto space is a series of liquidity constrained markets, where participants are increasingly encouraged to stake (hodl) crypto in dubious financial ‘businesses’ via defi and yield farming, which further reduces available liquidity, all of which is further inflated by at least $55bn of fake liquidity in UST alone. All of this $2trillion dollar market is floating on barely $10bn of genuine liquidity, and which has a slow leak of $55m dollars a day in the form of mining costs that HAVE to be paid in hard currency.

    Tether released its reserves today and they only had $2.1bn in identifiable cash reserves, and most of the other exchanges would have even less. If real USD liquidity is $10bn, all that is required to crash the entire crypto complex would be for half of one percent, 0.5%, of the value market “Capitalization” seek to exit the system. Many people hold USDT as a hedge against upcoming real life obligations – like paying tax.

    The IRS (and most other national tax agencies) is far more prepared for this boom – they have honed their investigative techniques considerably since the last boom in 2017 and they are no empowered by Global Financial Regulations, CRS and FACTA, to ensure tax compliance:

    https://decrypt.co/63770/the-irs-is-hunting-for-tax-dodging-customers-of-circle

    No Govt wants the blood on its hand for killing a $2Trillion dollar market by enforcing the sort of Regulation that would kill the crypto industry stone dead. They will prosecute obvious maleficence and laundering, and demand that tax obligations are paid, but all they have to do is wait until the remaining real liquidity evaporates, like so much dry ice, after which the market will implode.

    The point is, regulations won’t destroy this bubble, the law of large numbers and ratios to real liquidity will. Regulation will come way after, TrollyHorse face McTrollface’s chart shows it better than any other:

    https://twitter.com/Tr0llyTr0llFace/status/1389548874688307203

    Not that it will actually require the $10bn to be totally gone before it collapses, once the real liquidity starts to drain market making exchanges dealing in fiat will be forced to widen their spreads so enormously in order to stop their cash reserves from being drained. Otherwise they would otherwise be forced to continue to buy BTC and sell hard USD cash – when real liquidity inflows/outflows swing materially negative the entire crypto market will implode in a matter of days.

    • BakuninMEMBER

      What if you have taken your crypto off the exchange and have it in cold storage?

      • Ghost of Stewie Griffin

        Then you will only be exposed to any price falls and not the credit risks of the individual exchanges…. provided they don’t gate the exchange and ban withdrawals.

        • BakuninMEMBER

          Yes, massive counterparty risk particular because the “exchanges“ are unregulated and financial and operational transparency is abysmal.

          Cold storage is also a risk: device failure, technology redundancy, human error etc etc…the whole sector is riddled with massive risk, but as they say, no risk, no reward.

          The sector is still in its infancy, but like it or not, it is evolving and adoption is increasing very very quickly. It’s going to be fascinating to watch it develop over the next decade. Time will tell, but some of the technology platforms and projects are fascinating and have utility; I don’t things it’s going to disappear anytime soon.

  8. drsmithyMEMBER

    Imagine if all that energy had been put into something relatively productive, like playing games.

  9. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    If bitcoin was/is vs. gold in the stored value plus the environmental stakes then.. gold certainly ain’t some environmental savior.. Possibly MUCH worse than BTC.

    Clear-felling/cutting of rain-forest is required to get at a lot of the worlds gold. You basically truck out a sh1tload of soil underneath just the get a few grams of gold.

    https://news.mongabay.com/2015/01/amazon-gold-rush-destroying-huge-swaths-of-rainforest/

    So basically.. if yer a bitcoin “investor” (see speculator) yer no good. And if yer a gold investor/speccy.. you’re probably much the same.

    • The difference being once the gold is mined, huge amounts of energy are not wasted in confirming it’s a piece of gold.

  10. > Unless HODLers are planning on arming themselves with 21 aircraft carriers to take on the US navy in the near future then nothing is going to change that and any attempt to try will be mercilessly crushed.

    Why bother with that shit when loose coalitions of angry Afghani tribes are quite effective?

    All you have to do is hold them off, build your population, and wait.

    Facts.

  11. BakuninMEMBER

    Musk would have been prosecuted by the SEC and would be behind bars if crypto was deemed a regulated security.

    There is a bitcoin ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Can’t the Canadian authorities extradite him for market manipulation?