Australian recession

24

Gotti screams “recession” as apartment prices bust

By Leith van Onselen From the always alarmist Robert Gottliebsen (“Gotti”), who has once again warned of impending doom as Melbourne’s epic apartment bubble goes bust as mainland Chinese buyers desert the market: Over the past two to three weeks, prices of “used” apartments in Melbourne dropped significantly as more supply hit the market. This

1

Mining GFC simmers on

The Mining GFC continues to simmer. The US dollar went sideways: Euro and yen rebounded: Commodity currencies stalled: Oil eased: Big miners are bizarrely firm and are all screaming shorts in my book: As base metals fall: And the US/EM high yield recovery appears over: Deutsche joins the cavalcade of Mining GFC alarms today: In

3

S&P: Straya and Russia worst off in China hard landing

Standard and Poors have done some modelling of a Chinese hard landing scenario that makes interesting Strayan reading: The pace and direction of Chinese economic growth, and, relatedly, the price of oil remain two of the key global risks to creditworthiness today, in our view. S&P Global Ratings’ base-case scenario is for China’s GDP growth rate

0

Fed smacks Aussie dollar as Mining GFC smolders

The FOMC met and offered a little more hawkish tone than I was expecting: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed. Growth in household spending has moderated, although households’ real income has risen

7

Deloitte: LNG cliff upon us

From Deloitte: The March quarter edition marks the 15-year anniversary of the Investment Monitor publication, arguably the most comprehensive listing of Australian investment projects and an important source of analysis and information for economists, policymakers and stakeholders alike. The economic outlook for Australia has recently improved somewhat. Growth and employment gains are solid. Commodity prices have rebounded from recent

21

“How’s that Big Austalian Short treat’n ya now?”

From the always balanced and forward looking AFR: Here’s a question for the big global investors who used Australian stocks as a proxy for their bets on a Chinese slowdown: How’s that big short treating you now? Don’t blink, matey. The Big Australian Short is still quite intact. Overnight the CBA CDS price fell one more point

3

Mining GFC morphs into Buy Australia!

The combined efforts of the Federal Reserve caution, OPEC jawboning and a moderate Chinese stimulus have morphed the Mining GFC into Buy Australia! with both hands. Witness today, the US dollar was weak: Other majors went nowhere: Commodity currencies roared: Brent roared: Base metals roared: Big miners roared: US HY yield roared, EM purred: Equities roared,

11

Business insolvencies rocket past GFC

From NCI: NCI brokers trade credit insurance so is largely SME based. From Banking Day: “It’s a standard uplift [in credit insurance claims] but it’s been quick. It’s staggering the number of claims we’ve received,” Kirk Cheesman, managing director of insurance brokers NCI told Banking Day yesterday. Cheesman said that “over the last quarter of