Australian recession


Aussies no better-off after 30-year recession free run

Economist Jason Murphy has questioned whether Australia’s near 30-year recession-free run has made us better-off: Well that’s it. Australia’s much-heralded three decades of growth are over. What have we got to show for it? How has Australia changed since a recession last racked our economy back in 1991-92? According to the World Bank we’ve climbed


Australian households’ nine year income recession

The March quarter national accounts, released on Wednesday, was another shocker for Australian households. As already reported, real average compensation per employee declined by 0.8% in the March quarter and is now 3.5% lower than March 2012: Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s released further data, derived from the national accounts, showing that real per


Stars aligning for stamp duty land tax switch

By Leith van Onselen Last week’s Productivity Commission (PC) report, entitled Shifting the Dial: 5 year productivity review, included a recommendation for the states to shift from stamp duty to land taxes: Recommendation 4.8 Remove stamp duties and implement transition to land tax State and Territory Governments should move from stamp duties on residential and


Offshore funders freaked by bubble

ANZ has some good news for us. The offshore lenders that enable the housing bubble are getting nervous: London-based investors in Australia’s banks are fretting about the risk that several small and seemingly well-intentioned changes in housing market policies combine to create a sharp property market correction. ANZ Banking Group chief executive Shayne Elliott, who


Strayan economic managers party as recession 2018 looms

Treasurer Scott Morrison’s declaration that the great Australian adjustment is over has lasted for a full four days. Recall: Treasurer Scott Morrison says governments can build infrastructure projects more cheaply and effectively than the private sector, justifying the “good debt” focus of his second budget that next week will foreshadow a turning point to “better


What now for Brexit punished markets?

 From Morgan Stanley: We see GBP moving to 1.25-1.30 and 15-20% downside to European equities relative to Thursday’s levels. Corporate and sovereign credit present the best opportunities to buy on weakness Economic implications: The UK faces a prolonged period of uncertainty which should lead both investment and consumption to wane. Longer term, a less open


Australia versus chaos theory

According to Wikipaedia “chaos theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behaviour is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences”. Australia exists in a state of blissful ignorance of this theory. How else to explain an economic model that relies upon


Hooray! Halfway down the mining cliff

From NAB comes a useful note: More than half way through the mining investment downturn The economic significance of Australia’s once in a generation mining boom has not been lost on most people. China’s seemingly insatiable demand for commodities and the determination of major mining firms to meet this demand before their competitors – seemingly


BT: Australian dollar going to 40 cents

From Australia’s last sane analyst standing. Vimal Gor at BT Investment Management: Calm before a currency storm? May was a calm-ish month after the recent period of extreme volatility. This was not surprising given the confluence of risk events we have approaching over the coming weeks, including the BoJ, FOMC, ECB, possible Brexit and the


Fed “one and done”, Mining GFC hosed, Aussie rockets

As US jobs disappointed, the US dollar was pounded lower: Euro and yen rocketed: Commodity currencies rocketed with the Aussie up almost 2% to 0.7367: Gold rocketed: Oil was flat: Base metals jumped a little: Miners had a good night too: US and EM high yield firmed: So, where are we now? The US jobs


Mining GFC reheats

You can feel the Mining GFC reheating after yesterday’s poor Chinese data but it’s being held in check by oil. The US dollar fell overnight: Yen bounced hard after Abe delayed a sales tax hike, fiscal stimulus, hinting that less monetary may be coming. I doubt it! Commodity currencies mostly fell. Aussie was supported by