Australian Economy

The first early warning beacon for an economic cycle that is in trouble is advertising budgets getting pulled.

Yesterday’s good jobs number had me wondering again just how big is the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and associated spending.

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Employment continues to defy the gravity of almost every leading indicator.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) data for the six months to May 2019.

As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for July, which registered a 24,600 increase in total employment but a flat headline unemployment rate (still 5.2%) due to a 0.09% increase in labour force participation.

Last month, economic advisor to The Executive Connection, Warren Hogan, claimed that “low wage growth story has become a macroeconomic phenomena around the world” and told workers not to expect any material pay rises.

Via the ABS just now: TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased 24,600 to 12,915,200 persons.

Check out the below chart from yesterday’s June quarter wage data from the ABS: As you can see, Victoria is way out in front on wage growth, recording wage rises of 2.9% over the year to June.

A new survey by UnionsACT claims that nearly two-thirds of young Canberrans were underpaid over the past year: There is growing evidence that employers are purposely flouting Fair Work laws and WHS laws on a vast scale, and young workers are under-reporting incidences of injuries and wage-theft to authorities.

A survey of TAFE students and university students by QS Enrolment Solutions found that 65% of those went to TAFE did so because of “good careers service and links with employers”.

Via Westpac: Superficially this result comes as somewhat of a surprise given that the survey was conducted against a turbulent backdrop with global financial markets roiled by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, the ASX down 3.4% and the AUD off 3c US since the July survey.

As Australia builds its powerful new “bullshit jobs” economy, it’s useful to contemplate some of the downsides, via FTAlphaville: Any student of emerging markets will tell you that financing a current account deficit with imported capital always seems like a good idea.

Via the AFR: The chemical industry has issued a fresh call for government intervention to bring down east coast gas prices, backed by new findings that every petajoule of gas used by chemical makers supports 80 times more jobs and creates 33 times more economic value than the LNG sector does.

Few have done more to damage the Australian national interest than “Tiny” Tim Wilson.

This morning I gave the above interview on Radio 2GB whereby I explained why Australia needs to reform pharmacy ownership rules to boost competition and lower prescription drug costs.

The July NAB business survey is out and is poor: Confidence was OK.

An Infrastructure Australia audit of the nation’s requirements across areas like roads, rail, schools, electricity and water has found that almost two-thirds of the burden from population growth will fall on the mass immigration epicentres of Sydney and Melbourne.