Department of Employment: Australia to become a bed pan economy

Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) struck in 2008, the lion’s share of Australia’s jobs growth has come from Healthcare & Social Assistance, which has accounted for 590,000 jobs created:

The Department of Employment has released its Australian Jobs Report, which projects that Healthcare & Social Assistance will continue to dominate jobs growth, alongside other population-driven industries. From SBS News:

According to the Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business, most new jobs will be created in four specific industries – Health Care and Social Assistance, Construction, Education and Training and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.

Health Care and Social Assistance industry is projected to have the strongest employment growth of any industry over the five years to May 2023,’ says the Australian Jobs report.

The top employing occupations in this industry are registered nurses, aged and disabled carers, child carers, nursing support and personal care workers and receptionists.

Construction industry which employs carpenters and joiners, electricians, construction managers, plumbers, is projected to have above-average employment growth over the five years to May 2023.

Education and Training employment is projected to increase strongly over the five years to May 2023, influenced by growth in the school-aged population, continued strength in international education and the growing demand for adult and community education.

There will be a great demand for primary and secondary school teachers, education aides, University lecturers and tutors.

The demand for highly educated workers like accountants, software and applications programmers, solicitors, graphic and web designers who come in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry category is too projected to increase strongly over the five years to 2023…

The 10 industry subdivisions that are projected to record the largest falls in employment include some in Wholesale Trade and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing but, notably, employment in a number of manufacturing subsectors is also projected to fall…

Melbourne-based career coach, Naishadh Gadani says the latest data is in sync with the trends seen now.

“It is mostly driven by population growth and the growing number of seniors in our country. Health Care and Social Assistance is creating a lot of jobs right now and will continue to grow in the next five years. With a booming population, we need more hospitals and medical staff and with an increased focus on aged-care and the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), there is a big demand for aged-care workers and disability carers,” Mr Gadani told SBS Hindi.

Mr Gadani says the demand for school teachers and university lecturers too will continue in the next five years due to the population boom in big cities.

“Population growth means we need more schools and therefore this report rightly points out that primary and secondary school teachers, as well as university lecturers, will be in great demand in the next five years.

So, we’ve got booming ‘caring’ jobs in health care & social assistance and education, not to mention public sector jobs. These types of services jobs being created are more about shifting wealth around the economy, rather than creating new wealth. That is, they typically exhibit low productivity, low wages, are non-tradable, and are paid for to a large extent via taxation.

Then there is the population-led construction jobs boom driven by strong apartment construction and public infrastructure investment.

Such building-led growth is ponzi growth, since it requires more people, asset sales and debt to fund it. Moreover, if Australia doesn’t build more than last year, then the economy shrinks (i.e. it’s the rate of change that matters not the absolute level).

By contrast, those trade-exposed sectors that truly create wealth in the economy are under pressure. Accordingly, private sector wages growth will continue to be stuck in mud as the profitless jobs boom rolls on:

Basically, the Australian economy’s growth levers are not operating properly, too reliant on extra people, asset sales and debt.

Leith van Onselen

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