Macro Morning: calm before storm

by Chris Becker Let’s look at what is shaking up in macro markets around the world. Starting in Asia yesterday morning, Japanese GDP surprised on the upside, particularly capital/business spending. This didn’t send Yen moving as much as hoped, with mainly algo trading last night correlated to moves in the S&P500 keeping the exuberance to


Trading Week

By Chris Becker Well I’m back for a few weeks filling in for Houses and Holes who is off on a well deserved holiday. I thought I’d start by rebooting my Trading Week series, going over the important macro markets from a technical analysis point of view. Remember, the following views are my own, do not


All eyes on the Fed taper

It’s all about the FOMC meeting at 04:00 AEST tomorrow morning and to be honest nothing else really matters. Ben Bernanke speaks 30 minutes later at 04:30 AEST and the chairman’s speech will also be highly watched, potentially increasing volatility across the board. Data in the US has been OK, but hardly enough to warrant


Macro Morning – Stocks and Aussie higher

Yesterday the Twitterverse was agog at the likelihood that after six down days in a row the Dow was likely to rally last night – and so it came to pass with US stocks up across the board even after the Nasdaq had to suspend trading after some glitches hit its network. At the close,


Macro Morning: Healing

Data out of Europe overnight continued the recent trend of better than expected performance for the EU and other developed markets. GDP growth for Q2 was a great and very welcome surprise was the pick up in French GDP of +0.3% (-0.1% expected), German GDP (+0.7% v 0.6% expected) and overall EU GDP which was +0.3%


Macro Morning: Yield spike

Bonds rates around the world moved higher, sharply so, overnight on the back of the better than expected data in the US and in Europe. Retail sales in the US looked disappointing on the face of it printing just 0.2% against 0.3% expected but this was largely because auto sales were lower with the core


Macro Morning: Australian dollar highs

Is it just me or was the price action in gold and the US dollar over the first day of the week and the data from Japan a little sign that maybe a safe haven trade might be gaining a bit of traction once again. Lets think about what we have to drive this type


Macro Morning: Australian dollar strength

Taper talk was the big thing overnight with Charles Evans from the Chicago Fed putting it back on the table as early as September to some traders minds although I think based on what he said it is more likely to be a Dectaper rather than a Septaper. Stocks didn’t like this message and given


Macro Morning: Australian dollar bounce?

Is the Aussie Dollar low in? It’s a question worth asking after the move to 0.8846 yesterday was just 16 points above the tentative trend line that I have drawn on the weekly charts. Many readers will think that the trend line stuff is witch craft but techincals are a big part of my toolkit.


Macro Morning: Dectaper

A very interesting night on markets and particularly FX markets Friday after the non-farm payrolls missed to the downside printing just 162,000 rather than the 184,000 that the market had expected. The disappointment ignited some serious US dollar selling across the board. What was striking by the end of play however was just how poorly the


Trading Week: No taper in risk appetite

By Chris Becker Here’s some charts that you should be watching at the moment, with my own notes and thoughts attached. Remember, the following views are my own, do not constitute advice and are for information purposes only. As a trader, I may have positions in any or all of the below and their associated markets


Macro Morning: Stocks erupt

It seems Goldilocks is in the house again with the reinforcement of lower rates and the better than expected data in both Europe and the US driving stocks and the US dollar higher overnight. We’ve seen a reaffirmation of low rates for the long term from the three big central banks (Fed, BoE and ECB) at a time when the


Macro Morning: Australian dollar sales south

Stocks in the US didn’t rally last night but you would have to ask yourself why not given the Goldilocks nature of the releases. GDP data was stronger than expected coming in at 1.7% (annualised, not really strong but better than expected) with a GDP deflator of just 0.7% against expectations of 1.0% down from 1.3%


Macro Morning: Australian dollar down

Glenn Steven’s Anika Foundation speech lived up to expectations I had for it yesterday. Over many years now Governor Stevens has used this speech to look at the structure and outlook for the economy and it has become his best speech for the year. Yesterday did not disappoint with the Governor making it clear that


Macro Morning – Markets worried about the Taper

  Nothing terribly exciting overnight but the price action across the board clearly reflects a bit of near term concern about the potential that the Fed will signal its intention to taper at the FOMC meeting this week. Accordingly, it seems that there was a bit of a risk-off move (as over used as that phrase


Macro Morning: Eye of the storm

This is a huge week. I’d posit it is the biggest week of the year in terms of central bank announcements and data releases and I’d suggest that by the end of this week we may not still be any clearer on where the Fed is at with regard to the Septaper (unless non-farm payrolls


Macro Morning: Hilsenrath moment

The Fed must be pleased, the Oracle they have spawned is doing his darnedest to get the message across but in the meantime is causing materially increased volatility in FX markets at least but also in stocks and bonds. I’m using pleased in this context as a pejorative because while it has been important for


Macro Morning: Gold surge

Rightyo, so yesterday was an interesting day. A day where the Japanese push toward monetary accommodation and a weaker yen was reinforced by the G20 and the Upper House Japanese election but the yen gained. I’m not actually sure it had anything to do with the yen. It looks more like a US dollar move


Macro Morning: Abenomics gets a lift

It could be a big day for markets in Asia today given the resounding victory of the ruling LDP Party of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Upper House elections over the weekend. For the first time in 6 years, and since Abe left the office of PM the last time, both Houses will be


Trading Week: stocks boil and bubble

By Chris Becker Another hurly burly week on macro markets. Here’s some charts that you should be watching at the moment, with my own notes and thoughts attached. Remember, the following views are my own, do not constitute advice and are for information purposes only. As a trader, I may have positions in any or all


Macro Morning: Higher and higher

The focus has rightly been on Ben Bernanke this past two days and the Fed Chairman faced the Senate overnight for the second day of quizzing and questioning. As with the previous session in front of the House Bernanke gave soothing sounds about the difference between tapering and tightening rates and made it clear the


Macro Morning: Bernanke on message

Hats off to the Fed Chairman for being able to have delivered the message last night that the Fed is going to taper but it is a path that is not set in stone either. After a couple of months of volatility on the back of the Fed Chair’s and his colleagues words this is


Macro Morning: Waiting for Bernanke

Not much matters in the next 24 hours other than the words Fed Chairman Bernanke utters tonight up on Capitol Hill. There is plenty of room for clarification of last week’s clarification of the difference between a taper and an interest rate rise. There is plenty of room for obfuscation if lawmakers press him too hard


Macro Morning: S&P bull

Markets in the US made a new all time closing high on the Dow and S&P again overnight after the Chinese GDP data was not as bad as it might have been and many feared and the weaker than expected retail sales which print just 0.4% against the 0.8% expected undermined notions of the taper


Trading Week: US dollar weakens, risk on

By Chris Becker Back from holiday and what a week, particularly in the US dollar/commodity/currency complex, alongside some misplaced “jokes” by the local interest-rate lever believers at Martin Place. Here’s some charts of markets that you should be watching at the moment, with my own notes and thoughts attached as of Friday night. Remember, the following


Macro Morning: Key reversal on Australian dollar?

Fed Chairman Bernanke is the clear loser in the overnight rally. You might think it strange that I say that but with the S&P making a new all time closing high after the Chairman was seen as being “dovish” rather than his recent “hawkishness” it is clear that his nuanced message is not getting through


Macro Morning: Bond market conundrum

It’s all about the Fed, the FOMC minutes and Fed Chairman Bernanke this morning as FX markets in particular are reacting in a remarkable fashion to a perception that the Fed has been more dovish in the minutes to the recent FOMC meeting and that the Fed Chairman has likewise entered a note of caution