Via the always provocative GaveKal: Throughout my career, I have always found that it pays to bear in mind Jacques Rueff ’s notion of US “imperial privilege.” Put succinctly: the US has long been the only country able to settle its current account deficits in its own currency. So, when the US runs a current
Via ANZ: prospects of an imminent coronavirus vaccine, the likelihood of a strong global recovery and a rally in risk assets continues to improve … could take some shine off from gold’s haven appeal, we don’t think it will scuttle gold’s current rise. in the bull market of 2002–07, when the S&P 500 index rallied
From a recent speech by Janet Yellen, incoming US Treasury Secretary: Extreme economic events have often challenged existing views of how the economy works and exposed shortcomings in the collective knowledge of economists. To give two well-known examples, both the Great Depression and the stagflation of the 1970s motivated new ways of thinking about economic
This one has really baked my noodle recently: Especially as BTC, “digital gold”, goes nuts: This became especially weird in the last few days as Janet Yellen was nominated for Treasury Secretary, indicating a rising risk of integration between the Treasury and Fed, a clear gold positive. Yellen says she is not persuaded by MMT
Bitcoin continues to outperform gold in recent price action: However, it still hasn’t broken its recent range: Will it? Today’s BofA fundie survey shows some rising acceptance of BTC: Anything is possible at this juncture. There is no reason why BTC is yoked to gold that I can see. It isn’t a safe haven. It
Gold is the currency of last resort Finally, markets are also growing increasingly concerned about a possible return of inflation now that the initial deflationary shock from the pandemic has passed. Beyond the already massive debt build-ups around the world, we see risks of politically-driven inflationary policies to address rising social needs. Such policies would
Lot’s of excitement over this: As I have noted many times, BTC and gold share an investment narrative insofar as both are seen as hedges against USD debasement. Some have recently been plumping for BTC to overtake gold. Has it? The answer is no and, for what’s it’s worth, I don’t think it will. BTC
This time RBC: For some time we have been calling out not just the 2020 US presidential election itself as a potential source of uncertainty for gold, but rather that potentially volatile aftermath and uncertainty following it could prove a source of volatility and/or upwards price momentum for gold in our view. In fact, in
Via Doubleline: If launched, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), as I have recently warned, will put at risk the independence of monetary policy and what little is left of fiscal discipline within their borders of circulation.1 Central banks are not stopping at the replacement of money as we have known it. In conjunction with their developmental
Via Sprott: The current pullback in the precious metals sector is a buying opportunity. Since trading at a closing high of $2,064 an ounce on August 6, gold bullion has declined 8.34% as of this writing. Gold mining shares have followed suit, declining 9.26% since the August high. It is possible that gold and related
Raoul Pal asks the question: Bitcoin is eating the world… It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months. You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin…and gold investors will flip to BTC pic.twitter.com/ox7KRY5VRo —
Via Credit Agricole: After correcting lower towards the end of September, precious metals such as gold have been stabilising with our outlook being for gradual upside in the coming few quarters. While we expect gold to end the year closer to 1940 (USD/oz), the yellow metal should advance well above 2000 in the years
Via ANZ: If global growth concerns continue to push up the USD, like we have seen this week, we could see some near-term headwinds for the precious metal Importantly though, if U.S. growth concerns result in significant policy adjustments by the Fed to help the economy, such as negative interest rates or even monetary financing,
With gold resuming its bid Friday night let’s take a look at where the miners as a sector are versus the underlying price. On a purely one-to-one basis, the recent correction looks a little overdone if you think we’re in a bull market: A better way to look at it is using an index chart:
DXY roared back last night: The Australian dollar was bashed: Gold was creamed: WTI is bid by a robot: Metals did OK: Miners not: Nor EM stocks: Or junk: Yields lifted: And stocks fell: The culprit was Fed minutes which simply weren’t dovish enough: Participants observed that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remained very elevated, with
Via Goldman: Momentum-based trading systems have been popular for decades, given their low correlation with traditional benchmark returns and, therefore, their potential for generating alpha. The strategies tend to have common components, including set rules for entering and exiting positions. Although there are a variety of methods employed to produce a trade signal, many rely
Thoughts @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/w4a4Mjs0Cy — Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) August 13, 2020 Lol. This is what investment has become. A couple of wankers making shit up to promote a worthless uncurrency with stunning regulatory risk. Gold is “boomer”, apparently. One should always be wary of becoming set in one’s ways but come on.
by Chris Becker Not a fun night for a gold or silver bug with both precious metals slammed down hard after having a huge run up past historic resistance levels and making new record highs. Silver dropped over 10%, clearing through tentative support at the $28 level after a double top pattern formed on the
Via Bloomie: With no imminent end to collapsing real yields – which just hit a new record low -1.10%, the side effects of financial repression warn of stagflation, asset bubbles and policy impotence. Fresh lows for U.S. 10-year real yields this week show a trap door opened by growing economic angst, climbing inflation expectations and
A couple of charts today make the point. Real interest rates have room to fall further: Gold ETF flows are still very small: AUM proportions dedicated to gold are still WAY down versus previous peaks: Probably the best chart of all, DXY is still very high: The lows of the GFC period are 24%
A couple of gold bugs talking it up: Both of these blokes are from the Austrian economic school so you need to be careful of their more extreme price projections. I don’t see any return of the gold standard nor erosion of the USD as the global reserve. But I can still see gold shooting
Via Karen Moley yesterday: Lowe’s carefully reasoned outlook for inflation puts him at distinct odds with the growing number of analysts who believe the combination of huge monetary stimulus programs launched by central banks around the world in tandem with massive government spending will light the fuse on inflation. Fears that the world could experience
DXY was down last night as EUR popped: The Australian dollar caught the bid again: As gold went wow: WTI is pressing higher but Brent is stuck fast: Metals MOAR: Big miners were soft: EMs stocks pushed for breakout: With junk: As US yields crumbled: US stocks piled it on. Europe is crushed by EUR
Australian dollar gold is at all-time highs this morning: Australian gold equities are matching the bull market: But note that equities usually very much overshoot the underlying metal before the bull market is done. Given I see gold going to $3000 at least this cycle, the prospects for the miners are excellent. That said, do
From Shane Oliver at AMP comes a good wrap of gold and the AUD: Introduction The price of gold has now broken out to a record high and the Australian dollar has risen 30% from its coronavirus panic low in March and broken above $US0.70. What’s driving this and what does it mean for investors?
