Australian recession


PC holds knife to Whyalla’s throat

The Productivity Commission is not happy with steel in a new report: Recent changes to Australia’s anti-dumping system have increased its protectionist impact. Generally soft economic conditions in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, a supply glut in the global steel industry and the recent changes to the system have contributed to an upswing


Kiwi exodus hits truly recessionary levels

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for January 2016, which revealed that net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand continues to boom, smashing records: Unadjusted figures showed a record net gain of 65,900 migrants in the January 2016 year. The annual gain in migrants has set


Citi: Brace for global recession

From the excellent Willem Buiter at Citi: The growing threat to the global outlook rests on poor fundamentals, which include the pre-existing fragilities related to the structural and cyclical slowdowns in China and its unsustainable currency regime, broken EM growth models, excessive leverage across many countries and sectors, and rising regional risks (Brexit) and geopolitical


Capex outlook deeply recessionary

The December quarter capex outlook has been released and is nothing short of full blown recessionary. Estimate 5 for total capital expenditure in 2015-16 is $123,956m. This is 17.8% lower than Estimate 5 for 2014-15. The main contributor to this decrease is Mining (-29.7%). Estimate 5 is 0.6% lower than Estimate 4 for 2015-16. The


Roll up, roll up for Australia’s incredible exploding prime ministers

Roll up, roll up for Australia’s incredible exploding prime ministers. Five in six years and, seemingly, soon to be six. How can this possibly be? Let’s begin by examining each case. Kevin Rudd explodes in 2010: Fresh from the highs of being the most popular prime minister in modern history following the ousting of a


Mining GFC returns as oil burns

The Mining GFC returned last night as the OPEC non-deal burned. The US dollar firmed: Commodity currencies fell: Oil was smashed: Base metals eased: Big miners were hit: And US/EM high yield stalled: Today’s extra material comes from Geneva Swiss Bank: After this nice rebound in equities, we are moving tactically cautious. Actions taken today:


Why capex sux

Victoria Thieberger tries to put lipstick on the pig today at the worthless BS in a discussion about capex: “Capital spending outside of mining is considerably weaker now than I would have expected,” Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens told the House economics committee earlier this month. …Hardship in the traditional manufacturing sector has been one


Mining GFC doused!

The short squeeze in oil and moar from Mario Draghi jawboning has again doused the Mining GFC. Both sent the US dollar higher as the euro cratered: From the FT: Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank was “ready to do its part” to make the eurozone more resilient, in the latest indication that it could unveil