Australian Property

I can claim to be the first but not the loudest or largest as the election, rate cuts, APRA cuts, and FHB stimulus trigger a property rocketeer party, via the AFR: AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver said the optimistic outlook was based on a “quadruple whammy”….

Via Macquarie equities: “multiple catalysts [have] improved the domestic growth outlook”.

By Leith van Onselen Last month, Research4 reported that 27% of new-home buyers in Melbourne defaulted on their lot purchase in the March quarter, compared with 2% at the same time in 2018.

Via Westpac: Given the intense focus on Australia’s housing markets at the moment and in light of our recent commentary around the best way to interpret auction market results (seehere) we are now putting out short previews each Friday and summary updates the following Monday setting out how results should be viewed.

CoreLogic has released its preliminary auction report, which reported a big lift in the auction clearance rate after the Coalition’s unexpected election victory and announced macro-prudential easing by APRA.

By Leith van Onselen The Real Estate Institute of NSW (REINSW) has attacked the Morrison Government’s first home buyer (FHB) deposit subsidy scheme, claiming it will create unintended consequences for the housing market.

Via Bloomie: …there are at least 80,000 reasons to suggest there’ll be no rapid rebound as the worst housing slump in a generation spreads deeper into the economy.

Chris Joye believes that the conditions are ripe for a housing recovery, and projects that prices will lift at least 5% to 10% after the RBA’s second interest rate cut.

A month ago, we saw Mr Armageddon go nuts at News: With Sydney and Melbourne’s falling house prices infecting other capitals such as Brisbane, Darwin and Perth, some doomsayers say property prices could slump by as much as 50 per cent by 2022.

From Shane Oliver: Introduction The negatives weighing on Australian residential property prices remain significant but the past few weeks have seen a number of developments that suggest that prices could bottom earlier and higher than we have been expecting.

By Leith van Onselen The chief economist of REA Group, Nerida Conisbee, has hosed suggestions that Chinese buyers will return en masse to the Australian property market.

Via Domain: “The affordability is terrible.

Now that is bear porn, via The Jolly Swagman comes John Hempton recalling his hedgie sting in Sydney’s west a few years ago: “It was pretty clear bad practice was ubiquitous and the further you went from the centre of Sydney the worse it got,” he said.

Via Martin North: We ran the latest live Q&A session last night.

Via Chris Joye today: The widespread media consensus that Prime Minister Scott Morrison has “no agenda” is crap.

By Leith van Onselen A cabal of speculators that acquired swathes of land on Sydney’s lower north shore, in the anticipation of making a motza once the rezoned for high-rise development, are now sweating on State Government approval.

Boom!

By Leith van Onselen The Property lobby has united in demanding the new Morrison Government introduce a dedicated Minister for Housing.