Stamp duty crash wipes $2.6b from NSW Budget

The NSW Office of State Revenue has released stamp duty data to September, which reveals a massive $1.59 billion (25%) decline over the past year and a $2.58 billion (35%) decline since stamp duty receipts peaked in September 2017:

The slump in stamp duty receipts follows a sharp 22% decline in property transfers in the year to September and a 31% fall since peak:

The annual decline in revenue has dwarfed the GFC experience, albeit is showing signs of life:

As you can see above, a turning point has been reached, which is also reflected in rising auction clearance rates and dwelling values across Sydney:

With more rate cuts still to come, APRA lowering its interest rate buffer and smaller bank capital requirements, ASIC losing its HEM lawsuit against Westpac (and the major banks lowering lending standards), and first home buyer stimulus due to come into effect from 1 January 2020, Sydney’s housing market should continue to rebound. And with it, so too should stamp duty receipts.

Leith van Onselen

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