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Australian interest rates
More on why APRA cuts are a very bad idea
This time via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: It has been widely reported in the press that the RBA and APRA are considering cutting the interest rate applied to debt serviceability tests for mortgages by 50bps.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
33
What’s oil about to do to central banks?
Via Capital Economics: Oil has been thrust back into the headlines over the past week following a spike in prices that has taken Brent crude back to around $75pb.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
CS: Curve steepening at hand
From the excellent Damien Boey at Creit Suisse: We have just published a note explaining our positive view of the slope of the yield curve.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
Should we lower the lunatic RBA’s inflation target?
The state of debate in this country is appalling.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
14
How to do Australian “helicopter money”
Via BI: Citibank’s Australian economics and interest rate strategy team believe there’s a third option available to the RBA should the need arise: “helicopter money”, or printing money to be distributed to the public via the government.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
21
Lunatic RBA and APRA mull new monetary insanity
From Chris Joye late yesterday: Industry participants believe the central bank and banking regulator are considering a targeted alternative to a cut to the official cash rate, which would involve lowering the minimum 7.25 per cent interest rate banks use when assessing a home loan borrower’s repayment capacity by 50 basis points to 6.75 per cent.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
62
Bill Evans: RBA won’t cut in May
Via Bill Evans of Westpac: On February 21, Westpac Economics indicated that we believe that there is a case for two RBA rate cuts in 2019 – with the likely timing to be in August and November.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
8
Inflation expectations plunge to multi-year low
By Leith van Onselen Following last week’s crashing headline and underlying inflation over the March quarter: Roy Morgan has released its Inflation Expectations Index, which has plunged to levels not seen since late 2016: In March, Australians expected inflation of only 4% per year over the next two years.
Leith van Onselen
5 years ago
3
Does the lunatic RBA want Straya to be Greece or the US?
Via Alan Kohler on the weekend: As if reducing retirees’ incomes again is going to make any difference.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
44
Bloxo versus everybody (updated)
Everybody is now forecasting imminent rate cuts: ANZ, NAB, WBC, MQG, CITI, CS, RBC, JPM, UBS, ME, TD, NOM, MB, bond and interest rate markets.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
6
What next from the lunatic RBA?
The Deflation Bank of Australia faces a conundrum, via The Australian: The RBA is facing up to the reality that a review of its economic forecasts on May 10 will include cuts to both its GDP growth and inflation forecasts, sharply eroding any optimism it might retain about the economic outlook.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
18
CPI in detail: Bullhawks crash!
Leith van Onselen
5 years ago
3
Aussie bonds explode as RBA emergency rates to get emergencier
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
12
Some variable mortgage rates cut
Via Banking Day: While there have been plenty of lenders dropping fixed rates in recent months, few have cut their variable rates.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
4
Australian inflation tanking?
Via Westpac: • Westpac’s forecast for the March quarter CPI is 0.1%qtr with the annual pace easing back to 1.4%yr from 1.8%yr.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
10
Has the great Aussie bond rocket flamed out?
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
1
RBA’s dodgy negative equity analysis
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: We think that the RBA will cut rates, probably in 2H.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
27
UBS: CPI to pull donut, trigger early RBA cuts
Via the excellent George Tharenou at UBS: Based on our proprietary survey, we cut our Q1 headline CPI forecast to 0.0% q/q (was 0.2%), a sharp slowing from Q4’s 0.5%.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
12
Bill Evans: RBA tilts towards rate cuts
Via Westpac: The RBA minutes clearly indicate that they are willing to cut the cash rate and have set out the conditions that need to be fulfilled for it to occur.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
13
Dovish RBA realises its ‘pushing on a string’
Dovish RBA minutes out just now: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion by noting that the slower pace of global economic activity had continued in recent months.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
20
CLSA: Banks won’t cut mortgage rates
CLSA’s excellent Brian Johnston is on the money here: Veteran CLSA bank analyst Brian Johnson said while funding costs had fallen, margins were still under pressure due to increased costs as investors coming to the end of their interest-only periods are forced to switch mortgage products to pay off both the principal and interest.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
2
RBA confirms Chris Joye’s big short
The new RBA Financial Stability Review is out and brimming with anxiety: Risks to the household sector have increased over the past six months given weak housing market conditions.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
15
Should APRA or the RBA ease policy?
Via the AFR’s Patrick Commins: The RBA still has the potential to cut rates further, but by this stage that just looks like a case of indulging in “the hair of the dog that bit you”.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
13
Why do central banks always miss the cyclical turn?
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: In recent times, we have seen a number of central bankers attempt to jawbone the yield curve steeper, or at least, downplay the significance of flat-to-inverted curves.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
Lunatic RBA launches Australian dollar
Because what Australia needs is more deflation!
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 years ago
8
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