Australian Economy

Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for October 2021, which suggests net migration into Australia remained firmly negative.

The Australian Retailers Association’s annual post-Christmas retail sales forecasts, conducted in conjunction with Roy Morgan, show that Australians are set to spend $21 billion in stores and online from Boxing Day through to January 15.

Associate Professor Salvatore Babones has released a new book entitled “Australia’s Universities: Can They Reform?”, which is a follow-up to Babones’ influential 2019 CIS paper “The China Student Boom and the Risks It Poses to Australian Universities”.

The RBA released its monthly chart pack this week and its always a fun flirtatious flick-through!

As concern about the Omicron variant lessens on risk markets, health authorities are moving from cautious to hopeful even as the initial scientific studies has not yet provided a clear-cut answer to its efficacy.

The Prime Marketer is out this morning with a press conference where Scomo is pushing the “don’t worry about case numbers, worry about the hospitals” line (which is a good risk management metric to be fair): Today we can announce there have been more than 40 million doses of vaccine delivered in Australia.

“By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA:” ■ The 2021/22 Mid‑Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) is scheduled to be handed down on 16 December.

In COVID news, NSW has had another 400 plus new cases, while Victoria is still pushing over 1000 new cases, recording over 1200 yesterday: Meanwhile, in backward Queensland, its just 2 cases, neither locally acquired as vaccination doses play catchup as the state approaches the magic-good-feely number of 80% double vaxxed.

Tweet thread from Jim Bianco to raise the hair on one’s neck: 2/15 The US reported over 61k cases Sat. The data has a strong day of the week pattern. Y’day was the most amount of Sat cases in 3-mos, worrisome. The 7-day avg is up 65% in the last week (green).

All the fuss over vaccine mandates and scaremongering by the media is being lost in the data that capital cities are actually returning to normal, according to mobile data, and vaccination rates across the country are nearing complete levels.

The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence survey showed a significant dip for November, falling 2% to 113 points, despite lots of lockdowns lifted across the country: Business Confidence in November 2021 is still 3.9pts (+3.6%) higher than a year ago in November 2020 (109.1) but is just below the long-term average of 113.8.

Not new but some texture around the Liar’s fantastic vaccine ineptitude: New emails reveal how “enthusiastic” Pfizer was to engage with Australia about its COVID-19 vaccine, months before the federal government agreed to buy any doses.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at record lows yet again in its latest meeting this afternoon, now popping off for a couple months holiday until February 2022 while it keeps the printers churning until then.

More special pleading from the Australian Industry Group: The federal opposition was fast out of the blocks this week with a major education and training policy announcement, but our severe and growing skills shortages and labour mismatches should be beyond partisan politics.