Australian Politics

13

Malcolm Turnbull’s shaky election start

Cross-posted from Independent Australia: Panama Papers, trickle-down economics, no real economic plan and a widening gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots”. David Tyler analyses the “Turnbull Show” so far.  THE TURNBULL GOVERNMENT has lost the plot with its election agenda. After conning the Governor General into granting assent for a double dissolution with the fiction that

73

Roy Morgan sees Labor landslide

From Roy Morgan: In mid-May ALP support 52.5% (up 1.5%) is now clearly in front of the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first week of official campaigning following Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to call a Double Dissolution Election for Saturday July 2. This is easily the best result

8

Brutus lurks behind Naked Emperor Barnett

From the AFR: Speculation is growing that West Australian Premier Colin Barnett will be removed by his own party after the July 2 federal election to avoid damaging the Turnbull government’s prospects in one of its strongholds. Liberal sources said it was unlikely Mr Barnett, Australia’s longest-serving Liberal leader, would take his troubled government to the next state election, due in March 2017, but there

49

Coalition corruption: They aren’t even embarrassed about it

Cross-posted from Independent Australia: The Panama Papers, media investigations and Turnbull Government members themselves reveal corruption is endemic. And becoming more brazen. Alan Austin reports. Again. Read November’s instalment here, December’s here, January’s here, February’s here and March’s here. EX-PRIME MINISTER Tony Abbott openly admits that Coalition ministers serve first and foremost the corporate sector — and expect to be rewarded for it.

17

Aussie John joins Turnbull’s team of liars

From Fairfax: The Turnbull Government’s chosen cheerleader against changes to negative gearing, “Aussie John” Symond, said in 2013 that the current system is “unfair” because it favours high income earners buying multi-million dollar properties. In the past month, Mr Symond, the founder and chairman of Aussie Home Loans, has warned of plummeting house prices and

186

Welcome to the world’s first Propertocracy

One the best economic bubble analysts in the world, Doug Noland, describes how the development of investment manias is often interrupted along the way by well meaning people. But, when they do intervene, bubbles by their nature are already so large that their burst threatens to pull down the system around them, so every effort to prick the

64

WA Budget gutted, Turnbull’s destroyed

The WA Budget was out late yesterday. Here are it’s key assumptions: Versus last year: And to make it easier, here are the big changes: 2016/17 economic outlook annual growth 15/16 Budget 16/17 Budget Change State final demand 0.00 -3.75 -3.75 Dwelling investment -0.50 -8.75 -8.25 Business investment -7.50 -19.00 -11.50 Government investment -3.00 10.75

103

Murdoch redoubles Duncan assault

From The Australian: The man the ABC presented as a “new national hero” has a long criminal history, including making threats to kill, unlawful ­assault and multiple counts of breaching intervention orders taken out by his ex-partners. Duncan Storrar, who prompted Australians to open their hearts and wallets when he ­appeared on the ABC’s Q&A

20

Obama wedges Turnbull on steel

From the AFR comes a torn Turnbott: “The President and I … discussed the very serious issue of the overproduction of steel globally, the steel glut. We talked about the impact this was having on steelmakers in the US and, in his country and in Australia, and we discussed the position in Whyalla as a very highlighted example of the challenges that we’re facing through these very

14

Naked Emperor Barnett parades towards ballot box wipeout

From The Australian: Colin Barnett’s leadership in Western Australia will come under serious pressure for the first time since he came to power in 2008, with the latest Newspoll showing Labor has extended its election-winning lead and the Premier’s personal appeal slumping to a record low. As the Barnett government prepares to unveil a $2 billion-plus deficit

64

Election 2016: Ritual over reality

At The Australian, Paul Kelly sums it pretty well today: Election 2016 is the contest between Malcolm Turnbull’s economic strategy and Bill Shorten’s people strategy. Turnbull aims to win by persuading the public to trust him as a superior economic manager while Shorten plays to the people’s angst, daily tribulations and pressure on family living standards.

31

MB Radio: The Budget, the Rate Cut and the Ugly

Upon the release of the 2016 Federal Budget Gunnamatta spoke with David Llewellyn-Smith, Leith van Onselen and Callam Pickering of CP Economics about the underpinnings of the budget, the integrity of some of its assumptions and forecasts, and the risks to the economy over the coming year and beyond. In a 45 minute discussion the

47

Coalition company tax cut another $55bn “captain’s call”

Add another policy to the list of hair-brained schemes birthed by a desperate PM, from The Australian: Treasury has not modelled the dollar cost of the government’s 10-year plan to cut company tax, Malcolm Turnbull has revealed, saying an expert’s estimate of $55 billion over the decade “may or may not be correct”. The Prime

55

Turnbull reckons Aussies are dumber than Yanks

Weird this: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says income inequality in the US is responsible for the rise of Donald Trump, acknowledging the outlandish billionaire has the Republican nomination “in the bag”. Mr Trump will be the presumptive nominee at the party’s July convention, following an emphatic victory in the Indiana primary which forced rivals Ted

173

The short and shocking reign of Malcolm Bligh Turnbull

The wondrous thing about this job is that you get to peer behind the curtain of power and money to see what’s really driving both. Over the six years that I’ve blogged, I have been progressively more amazed at the bastardry and bloody-mindedness that one finds behind the veneer. It’s been a journey into the darkest

33

Roy Morgan: Labor stretches its lead

From Roy Morgan today: Primary support for the L-NP is 40% (down 0.5%) with ALP at 32.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is down 0.5%% to 13.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4% (down 0.5%; 20.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others

10

Betting markets ease further from Turnbott

Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot: …here are the weekly betting market statistics for the Coalition’s likelihood of winning the next Australian election. House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2016-04-29 Betfair 1.38 3.28 70.39 2016-04-29 CrownBet 1.34 3.20 70.48 2016-04-29 Ladbrokes 1.35 3.15 70.00 2016-04-29 Luxbet 1.31 3.30 71.58 2016-04-29 Sportsbet

28

Why are big banks silent on negative gearing reform?

From The Australian today: Like a well-drilled army unit, the big banks rallied together to dismiss a royal commission, firing off the scary reasons why it was a bad idea. They did the same when the Murray inquiry threatened higher capital requirements. So if negative gearing changes were such a disaster, why have the banks been

54

Turnbull completes Turnbott transition with boats

Was there ever a centrist and reasoned Malcolm Turnbull? From The Australian: Malcolm Turnbull has categorically ruled out bringing the asylum-seekers detained on Manus Island to Australia, warning against becoming “misty-eyed” about the plight of more than 900 asylum-seekers and refugees in limbo on the island. Although his Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has chosen his

187

Waleed Aly crushes Turnbull on negative gearing

The Project’s Waleed Aly is a national treasure. On last night’s program he ran the above segment completely demolishing the Turnbull Government’s support of negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount. One particularly interesting slice from the video is the below graphic, which shows that Malcolm Turnbull’s own electorate of Wentworth is the

43

Westpac severs foreign property buyer umbilical

Prepare for a Gotti and Highrise Harry conniption, from the AFR: Westpac Bank and all banks in the Westpac group including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to all foreign residential property buyers. The bank joins ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank in the latest round of foreign lending tightening. “In line with Westpac Group’s responsible lending practices,

96

Grattan annihilates Turnbull negative gearing lies…again

From John Daley at the AFR comes another slaying of our increasingly lost and hapless PM. In his blogged response to the Grattan paper, Turnbull argued that: The paper claims that negative gearing “goes beyond generally accepted principles for offsetting losses against gains”.  But this is factually incorrect.  The ability to deduct interest and other