From the AFR: The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook, or PEFO, will be released by Treasury which prepares the economic statement without any input from the government. …”Once PEFO has been released there are no more excuses for Labor. They must show by how much the budget bottom line would deteriorate as a result of
Cross-posted from Independent Australia: Panama Papers, trickle-down economics, no real economic plan and a widening gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots”. David Tyler analyses the “Turnbull Show” so far. THE TURNBULL GOVERNMENT has lost the plot with its election agenda. After conning the Governor General into granting assent for a double dissolution with the fiction that
From Roy Morgan: In mid-May ALP support 52.5% (up 1.5%) is now clearly in front of the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first week of official campaigning following Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to call a Double Dissolution Election for Saturday July 2. This is easily the best result
From the AFR: Speculation is growing that West Australian Premier Colin Barnett will be removed by his own party after the July 2 federal election to avoid damaging the Turnbull government’s prospects in one of its strongholds. Liberal sources said it was unlikely Mr Barnett, Australia’s longest-serving Liberal leader, would take his troubled government to the next state election, due in March 2017, but there
Cross-posted from Independent Australia: The Panama Papers, media investigations and Turnbull Government members themselves reveal corruption is endemic. And becoming more brazen. Alan Austin reports. Again. Read November’s instalment here, December’s here, January’s here, February’s here and March’s here. EX-PRIME MINISTER Tony Abbott openly admits that Coalition ministers serve first and foremost the corporate sector — and expect to be rewarded for it.
From Fairfax: The Turnbull Government’s chosen cheerleader against changes to negative gearing, “Aussie John” Symond, said in 2013 that the current system is “unfair” because it favours high income earners buying multi-million dollar properties. In the past month, Mr Symond, the founder and chairman of Aussie Home Loans, has warned of plummeting house prices and
One the best economic bubble analysts in the world, Doug Noland, describes how the development of investment manias is often interrupted along the way by well meaning people. But, when they do intervene, bubbles by their nature are already so large that their burst threatens to pull down the system around them, so every effort to prick the
From The Guardian: Labor has hit back at a campaign against negative gearing changes by a group of large real estate agencies, arguing they are vested interests who have not produced any evidence for their criticisms of its policy. The Real Estate Institute of Australia and major realtors, including LJ Hooker, Raine and Horne, Laing
The WA Budget was out late yesterday. Here are it’s key assumptions: Versus last year: And to make it easier, here are the big changes: 2016/17 economic outlook annual growth 15/16 Budget 16/17 Budget Change State final demand 0.00 -3.75 -3.75 Dwelling investment -0.50 -8.75 -8.25 Business investment -7.50 -19.00 -11.50 Government investment -3.00 10.75
From The Australian: The man the ABC presented as a “new national hero” has a long criminal history, including making threats to kill, unlawful assault and multiple counts of breaching intervention orders taken out by his ex-partners. Duncan Storrar, who prompted Australians to open their hearts and wallets when he appeared on the ABC’s Q&A
From the AFR comes a torn Turnbott: “The President and I … discussed the very serious issue of the overproduction of steel globally, the steel glut. We talked about the impact this was having on steelmakers in the US and, in his country and in Australia, and we discussed the position in Whyalla as a very highlighted example of the challenges that we’re facing through these very
From The Australian: Colin Barnett’s leadership in Western Australia will come under serious pressure for the first time since he came to power in 2008, with the latest Newspoll showing Labor has extended its election-winning lead and the Premier’s personal appeal slumping to a record low. As the Barnett government prepares to unveil a $2 billion-plus deficit
It’s an odds on bet. With iron ore falling again last night another -2.5% to $54.20 (-$5 freight for Budget FOB price) the Budget outlook is now roughly 20% underwater in a week and futures are forecasting that it will in actuality be more like -40%, -$8 billion in Budget revenue and -1.5% in nominal
The Mad King at work: Malcolm Turnbull has brushed off a note from the Reserve Bank of Australia suggesting that changes to negative gearing could benefit the economy. The Prime Minister said the two-year-old note was directed at a “different issue”, which was the amount banks were lending to investors. “That issue has been addressed
At The Australian, Paul Kelly sums it pretty well today: Election 2016 is the contest between Malcolm Turnbull’s economic strategy and Bill Shorten’s people strategy. Turnbull aims to win by persuading the public to trust him as a superior economic manager while Shorten plays to the people’s angst, daily tribulations and pressure on family living standards.
Upon the release of the 2016 Federal Budget Gunnamatta spoke with David Llewellyn-Smith, Leith van Onselen and Callam Pickering of CP Economics about the underpinnings of the budget, the integrity of some of its assumptions and forecasts, and the risks to the economy over the coming year and beyond. In a 45 minute discussion the
The iron ore futures markets are showing every sign that they are in the early stages of bursting bubbles. Volume has crashed and now prices are following: It is noteworthy that not once in nearly a year have either major global iron ore futures markets priced the future of Australian dirt above this week’s Budget outlook
Add another policy to the list of hair-brained schemes birthed by a desperate PM, from The Australian: Treasury has not modelled the dollar cost of the government’s 10-year plan to cut company tax, Malcolm Turnbull has revealed, saying an expert’s estimate of $55 billion over the decade “may or may not be correct”. The Prime
Weird this: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says income inequality in the US is responsible for the rise of Donald Trump, acknowledging the outlandish billionaire has the Republican nomination “in the bag”. Mr Trump will be the presumptive nominee at the party’s July convention, following an emphatic victory in the Indiana primary which forced rivals Ted
The wondrous thing about this job is that you get to peer behind the curtain of power and money to see what’s really driving both. Over the six years that I’ve blogged, I have been progressively more amazed at the bastardry and bloody-mindedness that one finds behind the veneer. It’s been a journey into the darkest
The ratings agencies are yet to comment on the Budget which is quite unusual. They do not usually take this much time. While we wait, here’s Goldman’s take on whether the Budget has done enough: Has enough been done in the 2016-17 Budget to avoid a potential downgrade? On the surface, the answer appears to
From Roy Morgan today: Primary support for the L-NP is 40% (down 0.5%) with ALP at 32.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is down 0.5%% to 13.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4% (down 0.5%; 20.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others
From Chris Joye: With another bloated budget looming next week that could further undermine Australia’s AAA credit rating, it is opportune to reflect on the integrity of the Turnbull government’s bold decision to punt $50 billion on building 12 French submarine “concepts” that have yet to be designed, produced or proven in the water. Here the
Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot: …here are the weekly betting market statistics for the Coalition’s likelihood of winning the next Australian election. House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2016-04-29 Betfair 1.38 3.28 70.39 2016-04-29 CrownBet 1.34 3.20 70.48 2016-04-29 Ladbrokes 1.35 3.15 70.00 2016-04-29 Luxbet 1.31 3.30 71.58 2016-04-29 Sportsbet
From The Australian today: Like a well-drilled army unit, the big banks rallied together to dismiss a royal commission, firing off the scary reasons why it was a bad idea. They did the same when the Murray inquiry threatened higher capital requirements. So if negative gearing changes were such a disaster, why have the banks been
Was there ever a centrist and reasoned Malcolm Turnbull? From The Australian: Malcolm Turnbull has categorically ruled out bringing the asylum-seekers detained on Manus Island to Australia, warning against becoming “misty-eyed” about the plight of more than 900 asylum-seekers and refugees in limbo on the island. Although his Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has chosen his
The Project’s Waleed Aly is a national treasure. On last night’s program he ran the above segment completely demolishing the Turnbull Government’s support of negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount. One particularly interesting slice from the video is the below graphic, which shows that Malcolm Turnbull’s own electorate of Wentworth is the
Fresh from Essential: Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to? Total Last week19/4/16 2 weeks ago12/4/16 4 weeks ago29/3/16
Prepare for a Gotti and Highrise Harry conniption, from the AFR: Westpac Bank and all banks in the Westpac group including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to all foreign residential property buyers. The bank joins ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank in the latest round of foreign lending tightening. “In line with Westpac Group’s responsible lending practices,
From John Daley at the AFR comes another slaying of our increasingly lost and hapless PM. In his blogged response to the Grattan paper, Turnbull argued that: The paper claims that negative gearing “goes beyond generally accepted principles for offsetting losses against gains”. But this is factually incorrect. The ability to deduct interest and other
