The ALP gained 1% point on a two-party preferred basis during the week to Sunday May 1, increasing its lead to 10% points: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted from April 25 – May 1, 2022.
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The weekly Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 8pts to 84 this week after the ABS reported higher than expected inflation of 5.1% for the year to March 2022 – the highest figure for over 20 years. The higher than expected inflation has increased the pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade – perhaps as soon as today.
There are now far more Australians, 50% (up 3.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just over a third of Australians, 34% (down 4.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
This week’s result is the first swing to the ALP so far during the campaign and if a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won a clear majority.
Analysis by State shows the ALP continues to lead in four States on a two-party preferred basis but the L-NP has kept its lead in both Queensland and Western Australia…
Primary support for the major parties is level on 35%, but Greens support is up 1% to 13%…
With less than three weeks until the federal election, the Morrison Government is still facing a landslide defeat.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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