Crunching betting markets and the election

I have a working theory that overall betting odds on elections are affected by what people wish would happen as much as what people think will happen. However, my theory is individual seat odds are less likely to be affected by the casual gambler and the betting odds are likely to be dominated by either (a) hardcore gamblers or (b) those with actual “on the ground” insight into what is happening – and both of these are groups I believe can offer insight into likely outcomes.

My next step is to categorise the seats into categories based on odds:

    • Very Likely = $1.17 or better, implying an 85% chance of victory
    • Likely = $1.18-$1.50, implying a 67%-85% chance of victory
    • Maybe = $1.5-1.75, implying a 57%-67% chance of victory
    • Toss-up = any worse odds
Federal Election probability based on betting odds

There are 1005 words left in this subscriber-only article.

Get your first month for $1

Comments are hidden for Membership Subscribers only.