The Australian Labor Party (ALP) still holds a commanding 9% two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, according to the latest Roy Morgan polling:
Primary support for the ALP was up slightly by 0.5% points to 35.5% this week and is now ahead of the L-NP on 34% (down 1% point). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 13%.
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Support for One Nation increased by 1% point to 4% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties was up 0.5% points to 4% while support for Independents was down 1% point to 8.5%.
The ALP is ahead in four states – NSW, Victoria, WA and SA – but is behind in QLD and Tasmania.
Meanwhile, government confidence has fallen further, dropping 3pts to 81 after the RBA increased interest rates for the first time since November 2010 last week. There are now far more Australians, 51% (up 1% point), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just under a third of Australians, 32% (down 2% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Finally, Roy Morgan CEO, Michelle Levine, says there are an unprecedented proportion of Australians – over a third of electors (35.5%) – who say they will vote for either one of the minor parties, an independent, or can’t say who they would support only two weeks before the election:
“When electors are asked who they support, over a third, 35.5%, say they support either other parties, independents or can’t say who they would support – a higher level of support than for either the ALP (33%) or L-NP (31.5%).
“This large cohort of voters not voting for their major parties makes predicting the final two-party preferred result particularly difficult and increases the chances of a large number of cross-benchers being elected at next week’s Federal Election.
“On current trends, the ALP will win a majority of seats at the Federal Election and any cross-benchers elected will not hold the balance of power. However, a late swing to L-NP over the last two weeks of the election campaign could still produce a hung Parliament with the ALP favoured to be able to form Government with cross-bench support”.
I am one of those that refuses to vote for a major party. Like the last two elections, I will vote for Sustainable Australia in the Senate and an independent in the House of Reps.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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