Labor would win government in its own right and secure a modest majority with 80 seats in parliament if an election were held today according to the most sophisticated poll conducted across Australia measuring voter intention in every electorate in the country.
According to a special YouGov MRP poll commissioned by The Australian, and based on a sample size of almost 19,000 voters, the Coalition would be reduced to 63 seats, with one Greens MP re-elected, along with seven independents.
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The predicted losses for the Coalition would be broad, including four seats in Victoria, two in NSW, a further two in Western Australia and one each in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania, but with another six seats considered too close to call.
The poll also suggests that both Josh Frydenberg and “Tiny” Tim Wilson will lose their seats. Time to get a real job? Yeh, nah.
If the LNP does lose more liberals, including leaders, then they are facing a ruinous situation of reforming around a conservative rump completely out of touch with the contemporary world. It will only get worse as Millennials pour onto the electoral roll in coming years.
Mark the Ballot is now satisfied that the polls are NOT replicating the biases of last election:
Two polls were released in the past 24 hours. Ipsos has Labor on 57 to 43 per cent of the two-party preferred (2pp) vote. A Labor win of this magnitude would be record breaking for Labor; the Coalition won 56.9 per cent of the two party vote in 1966 with a rally-to-the-flag election on Australia’s participation in the Vietnam war.
Newspoll has Labor well ahead with 54 to 46 per cent of the 2pp vote. If this was repeated at the election, Labor would have a comfortable win.
The aggregate polls show a movement to Labor over the past week.
With the latest Ipsos poll, any concerns I might of had about the polls being in a narrow range (collectively) are no longer there. I cannot use the Chi-squared statistic to reject the null hypothesis that the polls (collectively) have the expected variance. Collectively, the polls are not under-dispersed.
A number of people have developed probability models for the election outcome. The most likely outcome from each of these models (at 2pm on Monday 9 May) is reasonably similar:
Buckley’s and None: Labor has a 70% probability for forming majority government. The Coalition has an 8% chance of forming majority government. There is a 22% chance of minority government.
Australian Election Forecasts: Labor has an 73% chance of forming majority government. The Coalition has a 5% chance of majority government. There is a 22% chance of minority government.
Armarium Interreta: Labor has a 68% chance of forming majority government. The Coalition has an 8% chance of forming majority government. There is a 24% probability for a minority government.
Unless you read The Australian, Albo also comprehensively won last night’s final leader’s debate as Morrison’s desperate gambit that higher wages are bad for punters backfired.
Only a true gaslighter-in-chief would try to sell falling living standards as a win.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
